The Duran Podcast - Putin & Lukashenko prepare for NATO escalation

Episode Date: May 25, 2024

Putin & Lukashenko prepare for NATO escalation

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Putin meeting with Lukashenko. I believe we're going to get some more tactical nuclear drills going on. Doesn't surprise me, given the rhetoric that is coming out of the United States, especially from from Lincoln about U.S. weapons being used to attack inside of Russia. So it looks like Putin is going to start, the Russian government is going to start sending signals and warnings to the United States in much the same way that they sent signals and warnings to the UK and to France. One of the warnings that they sent to the UK and France was calling in the ambassadors to the foreign ministry and outright telling them that if they continue to escalate, well, Russia is going to retaliate. So the U.S., I imagine, is not going to take into consideration anything that the Russian government says. So where are we heading in all of this?

Obviously, Putin is game planning things out with Lukashenko and with Belarus. Where are things heading towards? We're heading towards an ever greater and more dangerous crisis, just to say that first. But let's just talk about Putin's visit to Minsk. Now, Putin and Lukashenko meet continuously. I mean, you know, they have one meeting after another. Why is this one different? Well, the answer is it's very different.

And I explain why. Firstly, it's the second trip Putin has made since he was re-inorugated president of Russia. So first he went to China and then he went to Belarus. That signals who are the two most important countries for Russia. at this moment in time. One, obviously, the mighty superpower on the eastern border, the other, the fraternal Slavic ally on the western border. So that in itself tells you a great deal about the importance of this visit.

The second thing to say about this particular visit is that it's not just a visit. It is a state visit. He's going there in the ceremonial role of a head of state. going to a friendly ally, a friendly country, Belarus. Obviously, he's going to have a summit meeting with Lukashenko. But over the course of a state visit, you can be absolutely sure that there's going to be lots of agreements signed and agreed and all sorts of things taking place. And some of the people who accompanied Putin on his state visit to charge. China are coming with him on this state visit to Belarus.

One of them, importantly, is Andrei Belosov, who is, of course, Russia's newly appointed defense minister. Now, what I go to suggest it's going to happen is we're going to have meetings and discussions, which obviously partly are intended to counter this absolutely calamitous threat that the US is coming from the US of green lighting. direct Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory using U.S. weapons. Some of these weapons almost certainly will require the assistance of U.S. advisors. So U.S. attacks in effect, or U.S. assisted attacks on the territory of Russia, a superpower.

Something which has never happened, by the way, at any time since the end of the Second World War, We've never had a situation. We've had proxy wars between the superpowers before. We've had situations where soldiers from the superpowers have fought each other in the territories where these proxy wars are being fought. But this is going to be the first ever time that I know of where over the course of that proxy war, one side is assisting the other. is assisting its proxy to conduct a tax on the national territory of the other superpower. That breaks a convention that has existed ever since the end of the Second World War, and which has been considered sacrosan. It tells you how far some people in the Biden administration are prepared to go.

and of course it opens up terrifying possibilities but anyway this idea is now being floated the Russians are obviously reacting they're mending their fences they're making sure that their fences are secure Putin goes to Belarus

there'll be a whole series of important agreements and the fact that Bella Usuf is there strongly points to the Russians and the Belarusians now working towards unifying their respective military industrial complexes. Now, the thing to understand is that the military industrial complex in Belarus is actually quite big.

It played a very big role in the Soviet military industrial complex. But Belarus had strong, heavy industries. There's all kinds of, there's the Maas works, for example, which produces, you know, powerful trucks. It used to do that for the Soviet. military. There's talk that Belarus might become involved in aerospace so that it might start manufacturing, Suhoi 25, ground attack aircraft, things of that kind. Now, if the Russians and the Belarusians are prepared to start taking those kind of steps, which they will,

because both of them feel under intense pressure from the US, it is inevitable that there will be elements of political integration moving forward as well. And, you know, I wouldn't myself be entirely surprised if we see the first discussions about setting up a single currency for trade between these two countries. Just saying. So just this is going to be.

be a major meeting and it's very much part of the preparation for not just it's not just a cold war that we're in but for this major crisis in international relations uh you know a cuban missile crisis two plus which is now on the horizon yeah well maybe even a hot war i mean arbyn is He's talking about how NATO is preparing for war. Yes, yes. And he's even saying that Hungary might have to reconsider its position in NATO. He didn't say it's membership in NATO, as I understand it. But that's clearly what he's...

It's position. It's position. Yeah. But it's, I mean, that's clearly what he's hinting at. So, as I said, we are looking at a very, very tense and situation as well. And it was what's driving everything continues to be the war in Ukraine. and I've been reading articles today in the British media even by people like Timothy Garton Ash,

somebody who's a fervid supporter of Ukraine, who speaks about Ukraine being on the ropes, and he's just returned from there, and he's been told by Ukrainian officers that morale in the army is sinking, and morale in the country is sinking. We all can see that, and the situation there goes from bad to worse

in many places right across Ukraine. And this, I think, is creating a very dangerous situation. Indeed, the Swedish military leader, the chief of the Swedish military, a military officer has said that there is no way that the West can keep up with Russia in military production. The British are now saying that they believe that China is actually now starting to help Russia by providing actual weapons, what weapons were in wonders,

to Russia. I'm not, I don't believe that, by the way, but talking in that way, just talking as if something like that is happening, makes it more likely eventually that it will. Anyway, you can see that both sides

are preparing their positions for the major blow that is to come. Yeah, I wonder sometimes if, if Europe is talking up a hot war with Russia in order to keep the grip going, or if they're talking themselves into an actual hot war with Russia? Or I wonder if they realize that they're talking themselves into a hot war with Russia. Because, you know, you get statements like Orbanes that he made, and then where he said that they're preparing for war.

And on the same day, I think you had Stoltenberg. Or maybe it was someone in the German government. I forgot, but they said there's no way. There's no way that NATO's going to enter the conflict in Ukraine. You get those statements all the time, though. There's no way that NATO's going to enter the conflict in Ukraine. So you get all of these mixed messages. My hunch is that they are.

Look at their actions. Their actions are saying that they want to enter the conflict in Ukraine. They're trying to find ways. They're trying to find ways to end. enter the conflict in Ukraine, but they can't find that because to enter the conflict in Ukraine, you're going to have to produce the weapons. You're going to have to put the military together. They just don't have that. That's exactly correct. I mean, it's a point, by the way, that was made by Jeff Roberts in that discussion, which has just been published,

if we just published on the Duran, the one with Matthew Blackburn and Glenn Dyson, which is the point is that Western armies are too weak to take on the Russians in Ukraine. And they know it. So they're not prepared to do that. They don't prepare to risk it. But they talk always in the way as if they're prepared to do it. And then you get discordant voices like Olaf Schultz saying, no way are we going.

It was Olaf Schultz. No way are we going to do this? No way is the EU going to acquire nuclear weapons? he almost gives the impression in recent statements that he makes that he now wants to jump ship having taken Germany

all the way to the point of the waterfall where it's about to collapse over he's suddenly getting butterflies and Pavel in the Czech Republic also suddenly saying after being an extreme hardliner

let's actually talk peace let's try and find a way to settle with the Russians But at the same time, all this talk about providing Ukraine with missiles and allowing it to use them in attacks deep inside Russia. So the rhetoric points in two directions. I think my own view is that in the end, they'll look at this, they'll think about it. They talk about it with each other. but they won't go the full step.

They won't go the full way. They don't want to go into Ukraine and be defeated. And they don't want to find themselves in a nuclear escalation, a nuclear war. But I'm not absolutely sure. And until that point is reached, they're going to still be dragged along by the hardliners amongst them, who will go on in the end. insisting on more and more escalation, like this utterly reckless idea of launching missile strikes

against Russia, which the Russians will respond to. I mean, even if they're American, I mean, and the Russians have all kinds of ways that they could respond to this. They might not respond against the British, when they called the British in. They made it fairly clear, look, we're prepared to respond against your territory also. But that was clearly set out there. I don't think the Russians would respond against the continental United States. I'm absolutely sure they wouldn't. But there are thousands of hundreds of American bases scattered all over the world.

The United States is involved in conflicts with all sorts of people. The Russians are perfectly capable if their own territory is attacked of assisting some of these actors whom the US is in conflict with in attacking American bases and they could get themselves plausible deniability just as the Americans are going to hide

behind plausible deniability over Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory the Russians could do the same but it would be very difficult for the United States and how does the United States protect itself right across the world

where it's got so many bases. This is a terrible idea. But, you know, if the Americans and the Russians are starting to do this sort of thing to each other, the risks of escalation are enormous. And the rhetoric from people like Lindsay Graham is going to be off the scale. And there's a huge risk, a very real risk.

But despite what I believe that in the end, you know, councils of, you know, not wisdom exactly, but of self-preservation will ultimately prevail. Well, you know, there's a very risk that they won't and that, you know, the Lindsay Graham's and people like that will get that way,

in which case, well, heaven's nose what. Yeah, I agree with you. And going back to Europe, the French and the British, It seems like they've backed off a bit with regards to striking at Russian territory. But they continue to target Crimea. They continue to go after Crimea. And no doubt about it.

Sooner or later, Storm Shadow and Scout missile, Storm Shadow being the UK, scalp being France, it's going to be launched into Russian territory. Belgorod is Russian territory. 2014. Yes. It's going to, it's going to happen. I believe we're going to see it. We're going to see scalp and storm shadows trying to hit these towns and villages. Yes. What happens next? Well, of course, because, you know, and I'm saying this all the time and we've said it, Primae seems to be an exception. I still don't know why. I still haven't figured out what exactly is going on there. But what happens when the storm shadows or the scalps?

are fired towards Belgorod or any other city in the border. I don't think there's any mystery about this. The Russians will respond in the way that they've said. They said so. I don't think that we should disregard what the Russians say. I think whenever the Russians actually impose a red line like this one, they act on it. That has been the consistent story. I know a lot of people think otherwise, but as I pointed out repeatedly,

what people say when they say that red lines have been crossed, Russian red lines have been crossed and the Russians haven't reacted, is that they've not actually been Russian red lines. They have been Western red lines, red lines that the West has imposed upon itself, and then attributes to the Russians. The Russians this time have made it absolutely clear what they're going to. to do and I've no doubt they will do it again they might not attack the national territories of Britain and France though they've said that it's an option but again there are lots of British and French assets around the world that they could assist attacks upon and I can very easily imagine

that happening I mean this protests in New Caledonia which is a French Pacific territory going on at the moment there are French troops there again there's all kinds of things the Russians could do if they took if they put their mind to it and you know you can try and control this up to a point but the British the French the Americans will know perfectly well who is behind all of this and eventually it's bound to leak into the media and then of course as I said the Lindsay Grams and the United States and we got plenty of people like that in Britain and I've no doubt that some of them also exist in France, they will all be there talking and, you know, demanding extreme action be taken in retaliation. So we could have a lot of this going on. And this is,

this is a very dangerous moment in this conflict. I think you're quite right. The British and the French have backed off. They're now waiting to see what the Americans are going to do. if the Americans go down this path as night follows day, the British and the French will follow. And then, as I said, you know, everything or hell breaks out. We are not just in a proxy war in Ukraine. We are in a conflict which quite plausibly is going to go global. Yeah, that's what worries me. the Biden

Biden White House is going to is going to give the green light for the I eventually I think they've already given it and I think everything that we're seeing right now is just preparing us for what's about to come very very plausible

I think this was decided yeah weeks ago maybe months before this was decided very plausibly and what's like maybe back in the autumn when it was first mooted I mean you know

I mean I can remember a lot of discussions about this very idea taking place then. So quite plausibly it's been it's been uh already green green lighted. I mean what the fundamental problem. There's an article about this by Seymourg that appeared yesterday. The president himself is obsessed with Putin and with Russia. And he always ends up going with the most extreme hardliners who demand the most most extreme escalation. And that will probably go on happening so long as he remains in the Oval Office. Yeah, he's absolutely obsessed with Russia and Putin. That there's no doubt about.

But once you get to the point where the U.S. green lights, the use of weapons to hit Russia territory, 100% the UK and France will then forget about everything that Russia warned them about and they'll start launching the storm shadows and the scalps into into russian territory belgorod or whatever and then the russians retaliate and then you're going to get the the hawks in the u.s in the uk and in france demanding further escalation absolutely you wonder where does it end this is my worry where does that where does this end the the only end point that i could see real quick is is the outright defeat of uh of uh of of the NATO of the NATO proxy in Ukraine.

That's the only end I can see. And even there, it's a very dangerous moment when you have that outright defeat, when the outright collapse and defeat, that's also going to be a dangerous moment. And I don't think that's going to come anytime soon. It could. You never know. But I think we're a year plus off from that as well. But I don't know.

Maybe it could happen in a month or two. Yes. Yes. You can predict these things. Interestingly enough, and for the first time I noticed that, Ossemoor Hershey's intelligence advisors, the people who breathe him, are now saying that an outright defeat for Ukraine

is now becoming the most likely outcome. So, you know, there are people who are increasingly seeing that. But anyway, I agree. It will need Ukraine's complete defeat, outright defeat, to bring this all finally to a stop, which, by the way, almost, certainly will make the Russians harden their positions over Ukraine still further and seek that outright defeat, just saying. But the other way it ends, the other possible way it ends,

is that a new administration in January, not necessarily made up of, you know, well, almost certainly He's still made up of hawks, but perhaps rather more realist hawks, and aware of what a catastrophe this whole mess has become, finally puts a stop to it all and says, look, this has gone far enough, we can't continue along this path. We'll continue to support Ukraine, because I think that's now the, I think that's now baked in the cake, actually. But we're not going to allow further missile strikes on Russian territory. It's causing too much trouble. It's affecting us in too many places around the world and then you get the new head of the CIA talking to the head of the SVR, the Russian intelligence agency and each come to a private agreement with each other or perhaps

the two chiefs of staff, the Russian and the American will each speak and they'll agree to call the whole thing off at least this game of missile strikes and further escalation. All right, let's let's see how all of this unfold. all we can do is watch, watch and try to absolutely. Absolutely. I mean, even though, as I said, we're all affected and it's, I mean,

these are decisions that are made which affect all of us and of course what we can do is watch because we don't know, we have no direct input into the discussions that are taking place. Though those discussions are definitely happening.

And as we see in the meantime, Putin, is in Minsk strengthening his defenses. No, the one positive that someone can take away is that you do have adults on the other side. Absolutely. Absolutely. Running things and making decisions and trying to bring this whole thing to a soft landing. And I'm not talking about Ukraine.

I'm talking about the unipolar world. Absolutely. They're trying to bring this unipolar world to, to, a soft landing. I agree. Yes. Yeah. Okay. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, pitch, telegram, rock, Finn, and Twitter

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