The Duran Podcast - Putin Rejects Modi Ceasefire Plan; Zelensky Burns Through EU Billions

Episode Date: October 7, 2026

Putin Rejects Modi Ceasefire Plan; Zelensky Burns Through EU Billions

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening with the diplomacy between Russia and the collective West, Russia and Ukraine. What's happening in the bricks, India has allegedly put out some sort of a proposal, a peace proposal for the conflict in Ukraine. we have Zelensky asking for more money and there's some reports, though it doesn't give us too many details, actually, but there are reports which claim that the EU and the Zelensky regime, they've agreed to front load some of the 90 billion that Europe is going to give to Ukraine in 2027, and they're going to give that in 2020. And then Zelensky wants more money in 2027 because there's a big hole in the budgets in 2026 that needs to be filled. And the 90 billion is being reconfigured in order to fill up certain holes in Ukraine's budget. And it just looks like this is just a never-ending black hole of money, a golden toilet. of money that is not, that's not going to end.

I think we put a number on it in a video that we did a couple of days ago at around 150 billion, the 200 billion. I think that's going to turn out to be very accurate when all is said and done with the money that is being sunk into project Ukraine. Money that there's, I don't think there's ever really been an audit. No. No one is even sure where it all goes. knows. But there it is.

Well, I mean, you don't need an audit with a man like Zelensky. Of course not. So completely, I mean, after all, I mean, you shouldn't really worry about such things. I'm sure he's been keeping track of it with you. He's been keeping track of it. He can, you know, he can approve the spending of every single cent and penny, just to say. But anyway, let's start with the first thing with you mentioned, which is an Indian initiatives, an Indian initiative. There is no doubt that it exists. Putin spoke about Modi

at the Valdai conference. And we've touched on this already. And we mentioned during a previous program that for the first time Putin showed, spoke about Modi in ways that were outwardly very polite, but which barely concealed, he's very great irritation. And it's not difficult to work out what this proposal is. It's for a freeze of the conflict and a ceasefire along the existing conflict lines. In other words, exactly the same proposal that has been made by the Ukrainians, by the Americans. It's now being taken up by the Indians and the Indians are repackaging it and they're now presenting it to Putin and the Russians as well. And the Russians are rejecting it.

There was a very forthright statement from Medvedev in which he made it clear that it is Istanbul, and that's the minimum. There's been a very, very forthright statement from Peskov, which we touched on in another program when he discussed the military things. but Beskoff said that, you know, we're going to fight for every millimeter of territory, which basically means we're rejecting this Indian proposal. And Putin himself, based on the way he spoke at the Valdai conference, made no secret. As I said, his irritation was Modi, which also tells us that he also is rejecting this proposal.

The big question is why Modi has done this, and presumably Modi has been coming under enormous pressure, both from the West, from the Americans. I mean, he's got to probably, he's worrying a bit about the sanctions from hell, the Lindsay Graham sanctions bill, and all of those things. But there are powerful business interests in India which want good relations with the United. United States, who have probably been pushing Modi in this direction. And one must never discount the possibility of vanity as well, that Modi sees this opportunity at a time when he's been under some political pressure in India itself to gain some, you know, publicity, some favorable publicity by coming up with a peace proposal which ends the conflict in Ukraine. But all it is doing, what it is actually doing, is, in my opinion, it is not improving India's position.

It's not going to strengthen India's position relative to the Americans. The Americans don't care ultimately whether Modi comes up with proposals which Putin rejects. if the Americans are going to impose tariffs on India because India buys Russian oil, they're going to impose those tariffs, whatever Modi tries with Putin. What he's doing, all that he's doing is irritating the Russians, who are India's best friends. So I think that's what I wanted to say. We've discussed this between each other.

It's my opinion. Maybe some people in India will take a different view. But I think this is a probably correct judgment of where this is going. Doesn't it disrupt Bricks as well? It does absolutely. You have elections in Brazil. We've had the first round of elections. It does appear as if Bolsonaro, the son, Bolsonaro is going to win these elections.

And possibly, as we have mentioned on this channel, as you have mentioned, many, many weeks ago. If Bolsonaro does win, we could be seeing Briggs moving, Brazil moving away from Bricks. Yes. There's a real possibility. Yes. So even if Modi doesn't successfully get a negotiation or settlement, a ceasefire, a meeting, whatever happens between Russia and Ukraine, at least for the United States, for the Trump administration, it so's more chaos in bricks, right?

You've taken Brazil out, or you have the possibility. of taking Brazil out of bricks, a very real possibility with Bolsonaro. And you're sowing tensions between Russia and India, between Putin and Modi. You're absolutely right. I mean, just to touch on Brazil, before the special military operation began, when in the 2000s, Lula was president of Brazil, you know, at the time of his heyday, if you like, Putin and Lula seemed to get on very well with each other and, you know, it was a good relationship. It began to sour, and I have to say this, my strong impression is that in some respects,

Putin got on better with Bolsonaro Sr. than he did with the latest iteration of Lula. I think that Putin has never really appreciated Lula's medici. in the diplomacy relation relative relating to Ukraine. And again, he's barely made any effort to conceal the fact. So this may be bad news for Bricks as an organization if Bolsonaro wins and takes Brazil out of Bricks, which I think is a real possibility. But I'm going to guess further that Putin himself will probably say to himself, well, Lula has not been a steadfast friend.

Better someone like Bolsonaro, the son. I got on perfectly well with the father. At the end of the day, it's one less thing for me to worry about. Lula creating all this disruption and all this noise with Bolsonaro Jr., whatever he comes up with. I don't really need to worry about it so much. My own personal view is that Brazil is going to leave the tricks. It's never looked very comfortable in Bricks for the last couple of years.

The whole mood shift, the whole political shift in Latin America has been back towards a strong relationship with the United States. I think Bricks was always ultimately a Eurasian institution. It was built around Russia and China with India also involved. I think better stick to that. I've always felt that myself rather than over-expanded. I've always taken the view that excessive expansion of Bricks was a mistake. And, well, I heard whilst I was in Moscow in June, that the Brazilian presidency of Bricks in 2025, as far as the Russians were concerned, was a car crash. So I think from a Russian point of view, they would probably argue that, Brazil leaving, Lula going, is probably going to give the bricks

some coherence. What Modi has been doing is going to be much more consequential, both for bricks and for the Russians, because the Russians, as I said,

are definitely irritated by it. They've wanted to have strong relations with India, partly for sentimental reasons, because they like India, and they've had very good relations with India in the past, and they've always stood by India in the past. And I think also for pragmatic reasons, because whilst Russia has a strong relationship with India,

it's able to balance to some extent its relations with China. So what India does, and India is a much more consequential country, one has to be frank, than then. Brazil. If the relationship with India goes sour, the Russians are not going to be at all happy about it. I don't think the relationship with India in the end is going sour. I think it is too important for India itself. I think India also does not want in the end to leave bricks. But you're perfectly right in what you said, this is going to create dissonance and try. within bricks, it was an unwise thing for Modi to do, and I think you should stall.

All right, let's talk about the other global power block, perhaps the most important power block on the world stage, which is the European Union. Of course. And their relationship with Ukraine. What's going on there? The Russian frozen assets once again are being brought up. Well, absolutely. Money problems. Yes. Well, first of all, let's talk about the finances and the money. and all of that, because this is obviously the core of it now.

I mean, it now basically evolves to that. When the European Union came up with this 90 billion euro loan last December, we said that it would not last out beyond the summer of this year. We were exactly right. In fact, what has happened, is that Zelensky has used this loan, the promise of this loan, as an asset, a security against which he can draw. And he's been drawing money against this security. What he's basically been doing is he's been printing money.

He's been spending money. He spent all of all of them. They gave him a credit card. Yeah, exactly. He gave him a credit card. He spent all of next year's money on this year. And now, because of that, he needs more money for next year, except he's going to need much more money next year that he's had to spend this year because his costs are growing. First of all, he's still focused on this drone offensive against the Russians, which is becoming increasingly less effective.

We'll come to his fantastic numbers in a moment. But he's continuing with the drone offensive. Remember, each drone costs between $50,000 and $100,000 each. So we're talking about tens of millions of dollars on each drone attack that Ukraine conducts against Russia, and they happen mostly every day, just to say every night anyway. So he wants to continue with that. But of course, his problem is his tax base is collapsing underneath him. The black sea ports are closed.

The agricultural producers can't sell their grain. They can't pay their taxes. The metallurgical industry has collapsed. The iron steel industry has collapsed. Most of manufacturing is now in crisis. But he's increasing he's spending on the war. He's not reducing it. So the bill, the budget for next year,

the expenditure on the budget next year is going to be higher than it was expected to be this year. So the whole is increasing on both sides. On the one end it's increasing because the spending is growing. On the other side, it's increasing because the tax base is collapsing. And it's increasing anyway because Zelensky is spending the money so far, without accounting for it properly. And one sense is also without getting permission from the European Union's auditors

before he spends it. So this is, I mean, this is a financial disaster. I mean, you know, you said that it's flushing money down a golden toilet. It's a much more vivid thing that you said. But somebody, a European official, said to Le Monde, it's like pouring water,

on a desert, watering a desert. It's the same thing in effect. It is giving away money constantly and doing so at higher and higher velocity and seeing that money disappear. And, well, we don't have to guess too far where the money is ending. A hundred thousand dollars per drone or $50,000 per drone. The trains don't really cost that much. The markup on the people who make them is huge. It's obvious what is happening. It ought to be obvious to everybody what is happening. Well, we now have this crisis in Kiev. I get the sense that some people within the European Union are now starting to push back and are saying, look, this thing is falling apart. The writing is on the wall. Can we go on giving money to Zelensky at this kind of

rate? We're never going to get it back. The European Union is, Union is again saying, let's seize the frozen Russian assets will get repaid when the Russians pay reparations to Ukraine. I mean, however delusional some people are in the European Union, this must be for some people at least a delusion too far. Nonetheless, the imperative to keep Zelensky and Ukraine going for as long as possible. for some people is still there. They're still coming up with their various schemes to seize the Russian assets.

My own view is that sooner or later, it is going to happen because I don't see European governments coming up with the money, all of them coming up with the money. In Germany, persisting with this policy, is causing the CDU's popularity to collapse. So given that the imperative to keep funding Zelensky is still there, well, you give him another

$200 billion. You take it out of Euroclear. You send it to Zelensky, which is going to burn through it in no time at all. By early spring, assuming, you know, there's still a Ukraine, by early spring, you'll come back for still more. But anyway, you buy yourself a few more months. And that's basically what the European Union, the mighty European Union, the great geopolitical force that you were talking about, the greatest geopolitical power in the world, that is what

it is reduced to. It's, yeah, you're exactly right. It's real simple. The people that want to keep this thing going are the people that are perfectly fine with this huge markup. Yeah. It's as simple as that. Yeah, it's a huge markup.

for them, that's the whole purpose of this thing. That's the purpose of it is to put a huge markup on all of this equipment and all these drones. Absolutely. Yeah. It's not a bug. It's a feature. It's a feature. Yeah.

And just to finish out the video, it's even worse than spending without accomplishing anything for Ukraine. He's actually burning through all this money and making things worse. Yes. Yes. Yes. Yeah, things have gotten worse because of all his adventures and his fantasies about striking deep into Russia and causing Putin to pitch later, whatever. Well, of course, because it plays a double role because, you know, we've talked about

the markup. We've talked about, you know, the fact that some people are doing very well out of this. Of course, they're the people that Zelensky cares about and needs and who are ultimately the political constituency that still supports him. So they want to maintain this drone offensive. Now, contrary to what Zelensky is saying, the drone offensive is becoming less and less effective. The Russians have built hardened shelters for all their fighter jets and bombers, or at least they haven't yet completely the process, but they are doing so. So attacks on airfields are becoming less effective. I mean, missiles can sometimes penetrate these shelters.

Drones absolutely can't. I mean, even the biggest drones don't have enough of an explosive punch to be able to penetrate these concrete shelters. So this is becoming impossible in terms of attacking military targets. And though it has been very difficult. difficult for the Russians to organize this because apparently some of the oil companies that own the refineries have pushed back. Putin basically crack the whip over it and there's now steps being taken to harden the refineries and we can see more evidence of this. It's still very much a work in progress. Drones still get through even once the refineries are fully hard.

and every so often a drone will do damage. You can never stop this completely. But the attacks on the refineries are becoming less effective as well. So it's never been 45% or 51% of refinery is not operating. The 45% figure, by the way, the Ukrainians were saying last year when they conducted an earlier drone offensive against the Russian refineries. These are numbers that are, in my opinion, being plucked mostly out of the air.

You can always find some statistics that appear to confirm them. But if you drill through the statistics, you immediately realize that they're being presented in a completely wrong way. The drone offensive against the refineries ultimately was a failure. and an expensive failure.

And exactly as you said, in strategic terms, it's made Ukraine's position worse. But Zelensky will continue with it and you'll make fantastic claims about it. Because, firstly, it's spectacular. It gives him the PR story. that he could sell about how effective Ukraine still is in the war, but more important still,

what you said about the feature rather than the bug, the way in which the whole thing is structured, it keeps the money flowing. It keeps the people who need that money still receiving it. It oils the system, which, of course, as things start to break down and fall apart, the need for that increases rather than reduces. All right, we will end the video there. We are on substack. We are on locals, the durand.com, and go to the Durandshop, pick up some merch.

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