The Duran Podcast - Putin speaks with Erdgoan's Syria viceroy

Episode Date: February 17, 2025

Putin speaks with Erdgoan's Syria viceroy

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Syria, specifically the phone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Al-Al-Sharah, not Jolani anymore. It's Al-Sharah, right? That's right. Yeah, name change. That happened a couple of days ago. And according to the Kremlin readouts, it was a very constructive call,

and it looks like the Russians will be keeping their, presence in Syria. I imagine Putin speaking to Al Jolani slash al-Sharah, his new name with the suit and tie and his new look, new image, new clothes, new name, self-appointed president. But I imagine it's really Erdogan that's deciding all of this in the backgrounds, right? I mean, that's who's really deciding what's happening in Syria or no. That is exactly what is happening. I mean, al-Sherra, as he now calls himself, or Al Jalani, as he used to call himself. I believe that Al-Al-Sharah was his original, he's given name. Al-Jalani was just one of the many names that he's used at various times in his career

as a jihadi fighter, as a friend of al-Baghdadi, as a person who's involved in all kinds of interesting and things, which, of course, we're not supposed to worry too much about today. Anyway, Al-Shara, Al-Jalani, is basically, as we've discussed in previous programs, Erdogan's viceroy in Damascus. It was Erdogan who put him there. It was Erdogan support, which made it possible for HDS to capture Damascus. That and of course the collapse of the Syrian military.

And what Erdogan has discovered is that Syria is a disintegrating myth. It is coming apart. There is apparently increasing levels of violence across the country. The economy is in a terrible way. Most of the country is no longer, there's no longer any effective government there. All of this, by the way, is now starting to appear in the media in the West. I remember that, you know, immediately after the fall of Damascus, for a couple of weeks afterwards, we were told told about how the situation in Syria was reviving, how the Syrian

currency was strengthening. By the way, it's very common for a currency to strengthen as a state collapses. It's a sign that people are rushing to get money so that they can get out. It's not a sign of consolidation. It's a sign of weakness. Anyway, put it outside. But it's now acknowledged that the security situation in Syria is weakening, that everything is falling apart. So Erdogan needs to stabilize the situation in Syria.

And he did a recent deal with Al Jalani. In other words, he told Al-Sharah, let's call him Al-Sharah. He did a deal with Al-Sharah, or rather he told Al-Sharah. agree to allow my army, the Turkish army, to enter Syria, to establish permanent bases there. And of course, Al-Sharah has agreed to that, and that is going to happen. And the Turkish army is going to enter Syria. And they're going to be fighting the Kurds in eastern Syria, where it looks as if Trump is going to pull the Americans out. So they're going to have their hands full.

The Kurds have a long-standing alliance with Israelis. The Turks Erdogan doesn't want to get in a tangle with the Israelis. He's also going to have real problems keeping the fabric of Syria together. So what does he do? He tells Al-Shara, look, we need help. We need to get someone else to help us. bring this whole mess under control. That can only be the Russians. Call Putin, be really, really nice to Putin, tell Putin, Russia can keep its bases. And the Russians have always said

that they want Syria to be united. They support Syria's territorial integrity. And if you go to the Kremlin readout, that was exactly what the court was all about. So the Russians stay in Syria. They keep their bases. I think that is now a given, by the way. And the Russians work to the extent that they can work with other ones, you try to bring the situation back under some kind of control. It is an astonishing turn of events. No one would have predicted it that a Turkish jihadi victory in Syria

would result in Russian influence in Syria being preserved, and the bases being preserved, but that is how it's turning out. What happens to the Kurds? Well, what happens to the Kurds? They smashed. I mean, I think, well, smashed, there's going to be a big battle. The Turkish military and whatever forces al-Shera can patch together will start to fight the Kurds. The Kurds are tough fighters, and it might not be easy, and there could be a prolonged war,

and of course it could spill over into Turkey itself. But in a sense, the Russians would say that's Erdogan's problem, that's al-Sharah's problem. That's also the Kurds problem, because the Russians repeatedly try to get Kurds to patch up relations with Assad, and it never happened. The Kurds didn't want it. Assad himself wasn't too keen,

but the Kurds isolated. themselves in that way from the rest of Syria. Is Syria, is it possible for Syria to come through this as a functioning state? I mean, you have, I mean, Israel's already consolidated its gains. Yeah. In the Golan Heights, you're going to have a possible conflict with the Kurds. The U.S. is pulling out. It's not in, I'm not sure that it's going to.

happen. Or is it a smaller Syria? Exactly. I'm not sure that it's going to happen because when you unleash the forces of chaos, which we are seeing in Syria, I mean, they might start. It's very difficult to reverse it. We saw that in Iraq, if you remember, after the Americans came in, that chaos happened in Iraq. And the situation in Iraq is largely, but not completely stabilized, but it has proved a very, very difficult thing to do. And it is involved, by the way, the Iranians and the Americans working together to achieve it, a fact which people don't perhaps fully acknowledge. Now, it could be that the Turks and the Russians working together with interested parties in Syria, that they might achieve it as well. The Russians might, for

example, work with and extend protection to people like the Christians and the Aloitians and the Armenians and people like that. Because these groups will probably now look to Russia as their protector. So it might be possible. But I don't think it will be a functioning country in the way that it was, say, before 2011. I think what you are more likely to get is a country that works at a very basic level in a kind of state of suspended animation with the Russians and the Turks just about keeping it going and preventing the thing getting completely out of control,

but not really coming together as a functioning state in the way that it was. Perhaps that's the best that we can expect now. I just wonder how involved the Russians want to get with this, I mean, given everything this happens. That's exactly what. If they do become more heavily involved, they will exact a price for it. And they will exact a price for another one. But whether they really want to go, there is another matter.

And the dynamics of the relationship between Turkey and Russia, I imagine, are going to change if you do get to some sort of a peace deal in Ukraine. In other words, the leverage that Turkey had over Russia is going to lessen. Indeed, absolutely. Absolutely. If the Turks need the Russians in Syria, they're going to, for Zeebridge is going to lessen further still. The Russians will end up again on top, again, an outcome which no one would have expected when Assad fell in December.

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