The Duran Podcast - Putin stays. Zelensky goes?

Episode Date: May 8, 2024

Putin stays. Zelensky goes?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Putin's inauguration, his new term as president of Russia, perhaps what his cabinet is going to look like. And let's also discuss the rumors or reports from Russian intel, most of it's coming from Russian intel sources, that there might be a shakeup in Ukraine as well. let's not forget that Zelensky's term runs out at the end of the month his official term as president. So that's going to be interesting to follow as well. So let's start with Putin, the inauguration and the presidential term that awaits him. Yeah. I mean, this is indeed the inauguration of the president of Russia. It's a big event in the Russian political calendar.

I think the thing to understand about it is that the mood in Russia at the moment is very confident. The economy is going through a major upswing. Living standards are rising. Inflation, by the way, is actually falling. I mean, we've had all sorts of things in the West claims about inflation falling. In Russia, it really is falling. So inflation is falling, living standards are rising. The economy is on an upswing.

The war is going well. Ukraine. Russia is advancing on the front lines. There was all sorts of threats about a potential Ukrainian attack on Crimea. As of the time of making of this programme, that hasn't actually materialised. Lots of attack and missiles have been fired. Apparently, they've all been shot down, 25 of them over the last two weeks. Anyway, the Russians in a very confident move. Putin in a very confident mood. He is unchallenged. There is no real challenge to him in Russia today.

And this whole attempt to try to engineer some kind of regime change in Russia through all the pressures, the sanctions, the war, the activities of the various NGOs, which have basically all collapsed as far as I understand. All of that has ended in. total failure. Putin is not only there, but he is stronger, more popular, more fully in control than he has ever been. And you are, you're getting the sense of that from his speeches. I mean, he's made some comments already about the fact that, you know, Russia did everything it could to achieve a peaceful settlement of the problems in Ukraine. It found that he had no partners, that the other

side was constantly going back on what he was saying that the Russians were tricked and Putin feels very comfortable saying that because he knows that the Russians over Russian public opinion overwhelmingly agrees with him so a self-confident Russia a self-confident Putin a country that feels that it's going in the right direction. A president who feels that everything is now coming right, both for him and for his country. And a president as well who is planning very soon his first big foreign trip,

which is going to be to China, by the way, where he's going to meet Xi Jinping and he's going to consolidate that absolutely vital relationship with China, which has withstood all the pressure that the West has tried to exert upon it and looks stronger than ever. So that is the mood in Moscow. Now, we inevitably have the rumours. The Financial Times was running a story a couple of days ago that Shoygoo is in trouble,

that he's suffered a major reverse because a deputy minister of the Russian defence minister has been arrested on bribery charges, that this isn't really what it seems, that it's all partisan, complex Kremlin power struggle between Putin and Shoygu and that Putin is trying to take Shoygu down a notch. To say it straightforwardly, that is all complete nonsense. It's based on no real understanding of the politics in Russia. It completely misunderstands the relationship between Shoygu and Putin. And straight after that, straight after that article appeared in the Financial Times.

Peskov, who is Putin's spokesman, actually went forward and said that actually Shoygu and Putin are in constant contact and they speak together on the phone several times a day because they have to, because there is the military, you know, the special military operations underway. So this event with the deputy minister

has absolutely nothing to do with the relationship between Shoygu and pleading. And it in no way says or indicates that Shoyu is in any kind of political trouble. Now, whenever the president is inaugurated in Russia, by law, the Russian cabinet resigns. Because they offer their resignations to the president. and the president then as part of his work to prepare his new program, appoints a new government to take his new program forward. I think in this case, Putin is most likely going to stick with most of the people. We already know.

So the Prime Minister, Prime Minister Michoudin, I'm guessing is going to remain there because he's doing a very good job and there's a general acknowledgement in Russia that he is doing a very good job. I think all of the economic team, Belusuf, Nabuleina, Siluano of the Finance Minister, Reschernikov, the economics minister, Manturov, the industry, Minister Petruchev, the Agriculture Minister, I think Putin is going to stick with them again, because why would he want to change them? They're delivering faster economic growth.

They've managed the economy well. They've dealt with the sanctions issues effectively. I think you'll want to keep them. Shoygo, I happen to know, I happen to know because I was told this by two completely different sources. It's very well informed about Russian affairs. before the start of the special military operation, told Putin that he wanted to retire. He's actually been in the post for quite a long time. He's been a minister of the Russian government going all the way back to the 90s. He feels that he wants to retire. He wants to go, he wants to fish about it. He enjoys fishing, all of those things. Putin asked him to stay to see this war through. I think that still is the case.

I suspect Shoygill will remain in place. The one question mark, in my opinion, is Lavrov. Lavrov apparently also wants to retire. He's been also in post for a very long time now. And remember, he's been not just foreign minister, but he was before then. He was Russia's UN ambassador. He's had a continuous history of,

top of the Russian diplomatic service, extending back for decades. And if there's going to be a change, it might be with Lavrov. I mean, I don't think that Lavrov is in any trouble, but it may be that Putin is thinking about replacing Lavrov with someone new, but somebody who is already well known, well known to the Chinese, well known to the world. one could guess all kinds of people. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister is a possibility.

Nebenzia, the Russia's UN ambassador is another possibility. There may be all sorts of other people. I don't know one way or the other. But I think that is, if there's going to be a departure, that seems to me the most likely one. But, you know, I don't expect any fundamental or big change. Yeah, I just want to say that even, in Greece when the government is reelected, that they'll switch around the cabinet. I mean,

this is not uncommon for many countries around the world that when the president or prime minister wins a re-election, there usually are some changes in the cabinet. So even if there are some changes in Russia, it shouldn't be shocking or scandalous or anything like that. It's very, very common to see some changes in an administration. when a president or prime minister is reelected. And I agree with you. Shoygu has been wanting to retire, but yes, Putin wants him to stay on.

And Lavrov, we actually did videos on this before the special military operation. Lavrov made it known that, look, I've been doing this for many, many decades. I want to relax. I mean, people forget that, you know, these guys are getting, older. You know, I mean, they're human beings. So Putin asked, Putin asked Lavrov to stay on,

and he did. So, I mean, even if there is changes at the top with some, some well-known names that we all know and a lot of people admire, it shouldn't be shocking to anybody. This is very common stuff. Let's talk about Zelensky now. And the fact that his term runs out, end of May, his official term as president, runs out. And there are some names being floated around to replace Zelensky, Oroshenko, Klitschko. Actually, Klitschko was in France. Interesting news that he was in France meeting with French officials. We have Zalusini, of course. That's a name that always gets brought up. And Zalusinni's popularity is still at the top. He's the most popular government administration or former administration official.

And you have Yermak as well. People are talking about Yermak, Zelensky's entertainment lawyer. And the man that people say is actually running the show in Ukraine. What do you make of these rumors and reports that Zelensky may be on the way out? These are, of course, rumors, but they're very widespread. it seems to be undoubtedly the case that Zelensky's popularity is collapsing and has been, I mean, it's been in free fall for some time, but it's, the situation has worsened for him over the last few months, especially as the Russian advances in Ukraine have accelerated. There's known to be

very serious unrest in the army now that all sorts of important brigades, are becoming very restless and have been openly critical of his leadership. The 67th Brigade, which is the Right Sector Brigade, the Third Assault Brigade, which is the Azol Brigade, the 25th Airborne Brigade, the 115th Brigade. Anyway, they're all the 79th Brigade. They're all now very, very critical of his leadership. there are rumors that the defence minister, a man called Umarov, might be forced out as well, just saying. That could be connected also with all this unrest in the military.

And of course, there's very, very great anger in the country about the mobilisation law and about the attempt to get the young people, or rather not the young people. The men who've gone to Europe to bring them back to Ukraine and they, there are actually public protests amongst some of these people outside Ukraine, these Ukrainians outside Ukraine against this and even the Western media has been covering all of this. So, you know, it would be completely understandable if there were moves at the moment to remove Zelensky when his legal term ends, which is on the 21st of May. Now, what makes all these rumours interesting? is that supposedly the United States is now directly involved in these moves.

And the US apparently has been in contact with all of the people who mentioned Klichko Poroshenko, who very much wants to become president again, by the way, and who's been clearly scheming to be reappointed president. And Zalusini, who, despite the reason, report that he'd been appointed ambassador to Britain is apparently still in Kiev. I mean, that's what I understand.

So it looks as if the US, or at according to the reports, the US is now canvassing alternatives to Zelensky. Now, it seems that this is not because

they want people to come in and take over from Zelensky, who will conduct negotiations with the Russians or seek peace or do anything of that kind is that they want somebody who they hope will run the war more successfully than Zelensky himself has done. So that's what this is all about. I don't know to what extent this is really going on. It is fully plausible.

It is nonetheless a very dangerous game because Isolensky is forced out and is replaced by someone else who, remember, will not have been elected. It will be difficult to sell this to the Ukrainian people as anything other than a kind of coup. If it's widely known that the United States is behind it, it again will look like it's the United States that's picking Ukraine's leaders, not the Ukrainian people. And that will again emphasize to the people in Ukraine, that this war that they're involved in is a war that's been fought not on their behalf, but on the behalf of the collective West and the United States. And it's quite possible that far from stabilising the situation and the way the US wants, carrying out these kind of maneuvers might actually destabilized further and trigger deeper demoralization. This is exactly what happened in Vietnam.

In 1963, the United States, as we've discussed before, became very unhappy, very unhappy with the way in which the war in Vietnam was being conducted by the then-Vietnamese president, President Ziem. They arranged for Ziam to be overthrown in a coup over the course of which Zem and his brother were murdered, by the way. And far from that stabilising the situation in South Vietnam, it actually destabilized it.

It caused the government that emerged from those events to have, even less legitimacy than Zem's own government did. And it essentially shattered South Vietnam's political system and its ability to conduct the war by itself. It was one of the major factors that caused the United States to decide shortly after that there did no alternative but to send troops to Vietnam in order to take over the direct conduct of the war. So it's a dangerous game that the US is playing. But you know, when you're dealing with famous masters of the universe like Jake Sullivan and people like that, who are no doubt the people who are running this,

one can very easily imagine that they might think, well, Zelensky is all over the place, he's volatile, he's eccentric, he's irrational sometimes. The military doesn't like him. Let's get him out of the way. Let's put in someone more reliable, someone we can work with better, someone like Poroshenko or Glitchko or Zoluzni, and that will make the whole situation better for us, and it will make it easier for us to keep things together,

hold things together until the November election is out of the way. can very easily see that thinking in Washington. And I, for that reason, strongly inclined to accept these rumors as true. It's exactly the kind of thing that I can imagine these people in Washington getting themselves up to. And as I said, there's a lot of rumors about this swirling in Kiev itself, And there's just so many rumors that it's difficult to think that there isn't something behind. Yeah, I agree with you. I think that there's something behind these rumors. And I will also say that the collective West, I get the sense that they've stopped caring about the whole Zelensky, democracy, Churchill thing.

I mean, I think they're done with it. You know, the statements that they're coming out with almost on a daily basis is, is pretty much along the lines of Ukraine is going to fight the Russians on our behalf until the last Ukrainian. I mean, they're pretty much saying it now openly. So, you know, what's, what is it to them if they say, you know, Klitschko or Yerdemak, he's going to be your next president? That's what we say. People of Ukraine accept it and keep on fighting. That's the impression that I get from their statements. I mean, Borrell, just a couple of days. ago, pretty much said that Ukraine needs to continue to fight because Europe is telling them to fight.

Well, exactly. And of course, exactly. Of course, what that risks doing, as I said, is demoralizing Ukraine even further. If I can just, you know, push these parallels with Vietnam. I mean, Ziem was overthrown. The, a new military government was established with various military leaders, eventually. A man called Tew, President Tew, became sort of the de facto, well, the leader of the country. But with none of the authority and legitimacy that Siam had previously had,

the military was expanded in South Vietnam hugely. I mean, it grew to enormous size. But of course, its willingness to fight. just trickled away because South Vietnamese soldiers were saying, well, why should I risk my life for the United States? I'm not an American. If I'm not fighting for my own country, what am I fighting for? The government I have isn't one that I elected.

It was one that was or was even selected within Vietnam. It's a government that was chosen for me by the United States, and I'm fighting America's war. And the South Vietnamese army, in terms of its numbers, it looked enormously big and strong. But it ceased to be fighting effectively. And if they do the same thing to the Ukraine, as you correctly say, they're talking about fighting the war to the last Ukrainian. made an astonishing comment that Ukraine must win because otherwise the Russians will establish missiles in Ukraine and they'll be able to threaten Europe. I mean, apparently, you know, the Russians bringing missiles closer to Europe is a threat. The West bringing missiles closer to

Russia is not. But anyway, let's talk about that some other day. The point is, as you correctly said, the West is now talking about the war in Ukraine purely in terms of its own interest. interests, that the mask that it was all about Ukraine is gradually slipping away. Ukrainians are aware of that if their government is replaced for them and the way that we're talking, say, why should all of these young men who are now being conscripted to fight, who are already unwilling to fight, be any more motivated when they're told that they must fight ultimately not for Ukraine, but for the collective West, for the better future of, you know, the geopolitical power, the hegemony and all that of the collective West. Why is that a cause

that Ukrainian soldiers would lay down their lives for? And why would they also accept and follow the leadership of a government that the West has chosen for them. So, you know, it's a very dangerous game. I can very easily see how it could all fall apart in the most terrible way, but I have to say something. It's the kind of game that I believe the Jake Sullivan's and the Tony Blinkins and even, I have to say, the Bill Burns is I think that they are constantly played and I can easily see them do it. In fact, I'm guessing that they are doing it. They're probably saying to each other,

let's get rid of this impossible man. Zelenskyy, his appeal around the world has gone. Nobody likes him. Let's bring in Zillusioni, for example. He's popular with Ukrainians, and that will somehow solve our problems. It won't. It will make the worse.

But that's what they're likely to want to do. Let me just make one final comment. I want your thoughts on this. To me, I get the sense that a lot of the collective West leaders that have been pushing Project Ukraine, they want to admit now that they have the power of Ukraine in their hands. They have the power to either get to negotiations or to keep Ukraine fighting. They control the future, the destiny of the country. I mean, the masks are coming off. And I think they're happy about that. And I'll go back to Borell.

Beryl's statement was along the lines of, I have the power, or we have the power to end this war. But we won't do it. I mean, I heard that statement. I'm pretty right on as to what he said, to be quite honest. I'm paraphrasing it a bit. But that's pretty much what Borel said. I listened to something like that, and I say, you know, these guys. it seems like they want to announce to the world that they have this power over this country, over this people, over this entire conflict. And they can either decide to continue the war or they can decide to not continue the war, but it's in their hands. That's just the sense that I'm getting from them.

So this report would not surprise me. We have the power to appoint your leaders to do whatever we want. Yeah, I think you're absolutely not. I mean, they revel in their own power. They sense that so much else is going wrong. So their ability to play games of musical chairs in Ukraine, to shuffle around Ukraine leaders and to keep a war going. Well, that tells them, so they feel that they're strong,

that they're still strong, that they're able to exert power in that kind of way. And they're revel in it, absolutely. This isn't new, by the way. I mean, it's not widely remembered today, but in the last year or so of the Second World War, the Germans went about overthrowing the governments of some of their allies, Hungary, for example, Italy, all of these places. And again, they did it and they reveled in doing it, by the, they rebelled in doing it.

Because, again, it made them feel strong. they actually carried out, they actually engineered a coup in Hungary in December 1944, you know, just a few weeks before Germany itself collapsed. And, you know, this made them feel strong. It made them feel important. It gave them the reassurance that they still had power. They still had the ability to control and shape events in all kinds of places. And this is, I think, very much like the kind of thing that you're talking about now. now that you know you keep the war going you get rid of Zelensky replace him perhaps with solutioning i think zeluzzi by the way the problem they have with solutioning is that i don't think

he wants the job i think he's the one person who understands how bad the situation is and really doesn't want the job but anyway you're replacing with someone else klitsko maybe or poroshenko who you think you know who's of course bitterly unpopular in ukraine so you replace You demonstrate your power. You demonstrate your strength. And that gives you the adrenaline rush, the sense of power, which is even more important to you now when you sense that your power is draining away.

Exactly. All right. The durand. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchie, Telegram, Rock Finn, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, pick up some limited edition merchandise the link is in the description box down below take care