The Duran Podcast - Putin to meet Erdogan, first meeting since stab in the back

Episode Date: September 3, 2023

Putin to meet Erdogan, first meeting since stab in the back

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and Turkish leader Erdogan. The foreign ministers have met, and the big topic is the grain deal. Obviously, Turkey wants Russia back in the grain deal. And Lavrov, he made some interesting statements. He said that Russia will go back to the grain deal if the deal. if the deal is adhered to. And it's not very difficult for the collective West to honor the agreement, to be quite honest, all the EU really has to do, or one of the big things that the EU has to do is just

turn on the swift to one agricultural bank. You know, two seconds, you know, press a computer key, turn on the swift, and there you go. But for nine, ten months, the EU has refused to do that. And that's been acknowledged by the United Nations, by everybody. They've acknowledged that the EU has simply not honored the Great Deal. But you have the foreign ministers meeting. They're laying down the agenda for the two leaders to meet. And the Green Deal is the big topic.

But there are reports that other business is also going to be agreed upon, talked about and agreed upon, including an energy, gas energy hub between Russia and Turkey, we're building up this gas energy hub. This is a fascinating story. This relationship between Putin and Erdogan is one of the most extraordinary relationships in international politics. I mean, these two men end up always working with each other,

even though they're constantly, you know, in disagreement. And Erdogan in particular is always trying, in some way to demonstrate his independence of Putin and taking steps which will annoy Putin and will annoy the Russians. And we had a big demonstration of that just after Erdogan won the presidential election. When, of course, he received Zelensky, he handed over to Zelensky the three Azov commanders. He said that he would agree to Sweden joining NATO after saying that he wouldn't. He said that he supported Ukraine's entry into NATO.

He said that he did deals to help Ukraine build up its military industrial complex. He did a whole series of decisions, one after the other. I mean, a whole series of statements, one after the other, which were clearly, to some extent, intended to annoy Putin. I mean, they had other purposes, also to win over friends in the West. But anyway, they also intended to annoy Putin. Putin to demonstrate that you know Putin can't take

Erdogan for granted and then of course Erdogan he can't afford to break with Putin he's very heavily reliant on Putin so he's then presses for Putin to come to Ankara to visit Turkey

and then the whole of August passes Putin is not going to go to Ankara he's not going to visit Turkey for Erdogan having some kind of relationship, some kind of business relationship with Putin is essential for the stability of Turkey's economy. So in the end, Erdogan has to go to Moscow. And as it's always the way with Erdogan, it all ultimately comes down to hard bargaining.

and a big commercial deal. That is the iron rule of how things work with Erdogan. So Erdogan wants to get the grain deal up and running again. The original grain deal, which he, of course, broke it and which, as you correctly said, has never been honoured. It's interesting, by the way, how people never... You read all kinds of commentaries in the West. They never mention the fact that the Russian agricultural bank

was supposed to be reconnected to Swift, and it never was. That's never happened. I don't think the Russians ever believe that it ever will. Lavrov has told the Turks, look, of course, we're prepared to enter back into the grain deal in the original form. If the West fulfills its commitments, that's what Putin said when Russia refused to renew the grain deal back in, was it June?

The Russians have not changed their position. position, but they are prepared to cut Erdogan into the Russian trade in grain. And they're offering him apparently one million tons of grain, which Turkey can re-export and turn into flour. And in other words, you know, the Russians are saying, look, you're not going to get your grain from the West, Ukraine anymore, but you can get the grain from us. We will cut you into this deal. We've been doing the same with the Egyptian. but we'll now also do it with you. You can act as the big re-exporter and of course importantly

with all this food that's coming into Turkey that will help you reduce food prices in Turkey. Apparently Erdogan is particularly keen to win the local elections in Istanbul next year and of course he needs lower food prices especially for bread and other essentials in his. Istanbul if he's going to have any chance of doing that. So that's that's the deal that the Russians are offering him. The Turks are coming back and saying well look we like that and we're interested in it but of course we still want the grain deal back in its original form and the Russians will say fine

let's go ahead you go ahead you talk to the Americans you talk to the Europeans you talk to the UN you can do, but of course our position remains unchanged. If you can get all of these people to change their position to connect the Russian agricultural bank to SWIF to do all of those kinds of things that they originally promised,

well then we will come back in. But up to that point, we're not going to. And in the meantime, why don't you do what we are offering? We will give you all this grain a million tons and you can re-export it. You can

reduce your prices in Istanbul, you are again a pivotal player in the world food trade. And I think that's going to be the deal that will be done. Yeah, what are the chances that Putin, when he meets with Erdogan, will reenter the grain deal without having the agricultural bank reconnected to Swift? It's not entirely impossible. I mean, Putin does do this sometimes to, by the way, the exasperation of many, many people in Russia. So he might do it. I mean, it's conceivable if he feels that there's some political benefit to begin from it.

And this isn't going to be Turkey that's not because Erdogan is pressing him to do that. It's because there are other food consumers around the world, first and foremost China, which have made it clear that they do want the great deal eventually re-established. And I think Putin might feel that ultimately he has to keep these people on side. He can't risk antagonizing these people. And for that reason, he's going to have to grind his teeth and go back in. But I have to say, I think that is unlikely. And I think Lavrov's comments make it even less likely,

because it seems to me that the Russians are sticking to their... position and because they've had another bumper harvest this year I think they feel that they're on pretty strong ground what are the chances that the EU actually connects the agricultural bank to Swift I mean it's such an easy such a simple easy thing to do and they refuse to do it it is that they just they say you know we're going to have to do it what can we do it's incredible that they have not done it and apparently the reason they haven't done it is because of pressure from the United States seems that the Biden administration wasn't happy with the original grain deal.

There was a lot of criticism of the UN Secretary General Guterres for the role he played in getting it up and running in the form that he did. And apparently the US has also been critical of the EU for agreeing to do that. So as always happens, the EU takes its orders on these. kind of issues from Washington, and so far they've shown no willingness to shift. I don't think that's going to change. I don't think the United States is going to change its position. I don't think it's affected by food inflation to the same extent. If food inflation does take off in the United States in the run-up to the election, and if the Biden administration

calculates that getting the grain deal reopened is the way to try to reduce food inflation and bring down prices in the United States and shore up its political support in the United States, then just possibly it will reconsider. But that's not the situation today. Yeah, there's also the aspect of the grain deal, the corridor, being used to launch a tax towards Crimea. Well, absolutely.

How do you deal with that? government, how do you deal with that? How do you deal with that? Well, again, I mean, these are technical things. I mean, I suspect the Russians will insist upon their rights to search Ukrainian grain ships and things of that kind and to patrol this corridor. I mean, that probably can be negotiated. But other elements of this might be very difficult.

And it was, they can be negotiated, but it doesn't always follow that Ukraine will agree. But then, you know, that might shift. that might shift the problem back to Ukraine. In other words, if the Ukrainians won't agree to have their ships searched and the maritime corridors patrolled by Russian ships, then, of course, the Russians will be able to say, well, look, the Green Deal isn't working because Ukraine is being so intransigent. It isn't our fault.

It's the fault of the Ukrainians at the end of the day. And that might, you know, help the Russians explain their position to the African, African states to the Chinese to other countries. The big one, I think the really problematic one, is getting this bank reconnected to Swift. It hasn't happened. As I said, nobody in the West wants to acknowledge the fact that that was part of the original deal.

And, of course, it hasn't happened, and it doesn't look as if it ever will. Yeah, okay. So, you know, Putin hasn't met with Erdogan, I think since the, the stab in the back release of the Azov guys. So this is going to be the first meeting that they're going to have face-to-face. I remember when Turkey shot down the Russian fighter jet,

and eventually Putin did meet with Erdogan, and he kept Erdogan waiting, something like three, four hours in a room with a statue of Catherine, the great, and signified the defeat of the Turkish military. He kept Erdogan waiting and waiting. And I mean, it was Putin's way of, you know, telling, showing Erdogan his place in the pecking order of geopolitics.

What do you expect is going to happen this time around? Do you think that Putin's going to tell Erdogan again, you know, look, you stabbed me in the back with this Azov agreement? I thought we had a deal and you broke that deal. Do you think he's going to do something like he did last time with the fighter jet? Maybe keep Erdogan waiting in a room somewhere for three, four hours so he can make his point. I mean, what do you expect to happen outside of the great deal? Focus in on the relationship to men and how Putin always seems to forgive Erdogan,

but not before he makes his point clear to Erdogan. don't cross me again or else. I mean, what do you see happening? Well, bear in mind that Putin has kept Erdogan twisting in the wind for weeks. I mean, you know, there was supposed to be a meeting in August. It didn't happen. Erdogan was very keen for Putin to come to Turkey.

It's not happened either. So already in a sense, Putin has made his point. It's Erdogan who has to go to meet Putin. I believe the meeting will happen in Sochi, way, not in Moscow. But Erdogan will have to come to Russia. He will have to meet Putin on home territory. It's quite clear that Putin has already taken steps of the sort that you described to make it very clear to Erdogan that ultimately he's the one in the stronger position. Now, I think Putin is very skilled at these sort of games. He's already made his point.

he's already, I'm sure, communicated to Erdogan in all kinds of ways that he is very, very unimpressed, to put it mildly, about Erdogan's decision to return the Azov commanders to Ukraine. And I think that was, by the way, for the Russians, the really, really thing that really angered them. But I think Putin will now move forward, as he generally does, and he'll go into practical steps, and he'll bargain with Erdogan. So there'll be all those discussions about Great that we've talked about.

But there'll be other discussions too. There'll be discussions about energy, and that's a big issue, very big issue for Turkey, because Erdogan is now becoming worried that the Russians have been gradually moving away from making Turkey into the big gas hub that Erdogan wants it to be. They've been talking to the Turks, sorry, to the Egyptians, they've been talking to the Iranians. so he want the Russians to recommit to that.

He might want the Russians to move forward with another nuclear power station, all of those things. The other thing that I think Putin will be looking for, and he's going to press Erdogan about this, is about getting more Turkish banks to accept the meerkard. Now, this has been a complex story because Turkish banks originally said

they were going to accept the meerkard, then they were threatened with sanctions. then they pulled out. And all kinds of sort of complicated routes out were agreed. So you can actually use apparently the Mirkard in Turkey, but it's not straightforward. You have to go to specific venues and particular ATMs. Putin will want this unrolled further.

And he'll start to try, I think, to tell Erdogan, look, we've got all this commercial relationship, all this business relationship, we're working quite well, we've got Armenia and the caucuses to talk about, big issue, that's going to be an important discussion because lots of problems there, Central Asia as well, but ultimately, look, we've had this big meeting in Johannesburg, the bricks have happened, we're setting up a global trade system, we're setting up a financial system as well, ultimately, why don't you, join and become a part of that, or at least take steps towards doing so, because that will facilitate our mutual trade, which is what you need.

Now, Erdogan is unlikely to agree to all of this in this meeting, because, well, he doesn't want to compromise his position as he's trying to get an IMF loan sorted out. but ultimately, I suspect that that's going to be a topic that's going to be broached over the course of these discussions. And Erdogan will probably go away from Sochi and will start thinking and asking himself whether this is indeed what perhaps in the end he's going to have to do. All right, we will leave it there at the durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey, bitch shoot, telegram, rockfin, and Twitter. Go to the Duran Shop, 10% off, use the code. Good day.

Take care.