The Duran Podcast - Putin, top generals prepare big moves

Episode Date: August 26, 2024

Putin, top generals prepare big moves

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in the conflict in Ukraine. And this morning, we got a very big Russian missile strike throughout all of Ukraine. I don't think one part of Ukraine was not targeted by Russian missiles. This happened in the morning. So the missile strike was a morning missile strike, which I think is not very common. And usually the strikes are happening late at night or very early in the morning when it's still dark. But a lot of missiles hitting Ukraine, it looks like they're going after the energy infrastructure. That's how it looks at this moment.

But we still haven't had any official statements from the Russian Ministry of Defense as to what was exactly targeted. There are some reports that they did target airfields as well. even some rumors and reports that they hit some F-16s, but these are just rumors. What are your thoughts on this missile strike? Was this, is this a retaliation to Kursko? Do you think this is just part of the Russian military plan and the military strategy? It's very clear that they did have success in hitting Ukraine's energy infrastructure, electric infrastructure, because we do have confirmation that there are blackouts throughout

all of Ukraine. And then my second question, so my first question is, do you believe this, this is part of a retaliation for Kursk? And the second question is, is this part of maybe the beginning of a Russian offensive? Because we do have the Ukraine military sending warnings to Belarus that the Belarusian military is very close to the Ukrainian border. So do you think this could be part of some sort of Russian offensive. Right. Let's start with a few things. Firstly, I think this is the biggest missile strike that we've seen at any point during the whole war. This is, this is, I mean, obviously we don't have exact numbers, but my sense is that in terms of sheer scale, this is off the scale. This is simply enormous missile strike. Lots of different

missiles being used, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles. hypersonic missiles. There's reports of MiG-31 fighter jets taking off launching hypersonic missiles and going back, being refitted with more of them, launching still more. So this is a huge missile strike. That's the first thing. Second thing I wanted to say is that the fact that it's being done in daylight, I think, has one particular reason. And that is to impress on everybody, including the Ukrainian people, that these missiles are actually getting through. The Ukrainians always pretend or claim or say that they've shot down the greatest number of missiles and that only a fraction of the Russian missiles have got through. That happens at night. You know, when the missile strikes happen at night.

This time the Russians want to show to the world and to the Ukrainians that the Ukrainian air defense system has essentially broken down and isn't capable of preventing these missiles hitting their targets. So I just wanted to get those two points in first. To answer your question, no, I do not think this is related to Kusk. I think this was being prepared weeks and months in advance. We've had a hiatus of missile strikes over a couple of weeks. That is the usual pattern.

the Russians then build up their stockpile of missiles. They then start with an enormous missile strike when they're ready. And then we have continuation missile strikes, mopping up any remaining targets, dealing with any damage that the Ukrainians have managed to repair over the ensuing weeks. And that is the continuous cycle. I don't think the Russian Defence Ministry

in any way orchestrated. or relates its actions to events that the Ukrainians are trying to impose on it. So the fact that the day before yesterday was Ukraine Independence Day, the fact that the Ukrainians have been undertaking an operation in Kuzk, I don't think this is affecting the Russian military timetable at all. And to answer your second question, yes, I do. believe that this is timed and is connected with Russian offensive actions across Ukraine. Now, the day before yesterday, Putin met with the top military people. He had a meeting at some

undisclosed location with the chief of the general staff, Valeri Gerasimov, with the operations chief of the general staff, Alexander Rutskoy. Apparently, all the other top military people were involved. Putin spoke to some of them over secure lines. So he got a massive briefing about everything that was going on right across the entire battlefronts, not just because, by the way. So I think that over the next couple of days, weeks, months, we are going to see this rolling offensive that the Russians have been undertaking in Ukraine, basically since last October, when Ukraine own offensive began to run out of steam, I think this offensive now is going to be hugely intensified. And this missile strike, which as I said has been carefully pre-prepared, is

intended to coincide with that. Now, just to say, we've had lots of news over the last couple of days about Russian military advances. The situation in around the town of Pakrovsk, major logistical centre, is apparently now critical for Ukraine. Long article about this in the London Times. There are nowhere near enough Ukrainian troops. An important town called Novogrodivka is apparently about to fall. Another one called Selidovo in the air. Same air is about to be stormed by the Russians. This whole key logistical help of the Ukrainian army is falling. So it seems as the fortified city of Toretsk, further east. Ukraine's supply lines are being disrupted and are breaking down.

Its energy system is breaking down. I'm getting the sense that the Russians are now maneuvering, and this is what this missile strike is all about for the final big punch, the one that's going to knock out Ukraine completely. That, I think, is what this missile strike is related to, what it's all about. So the air defense of Ukraine sent to Kursk, and it's left a lot of Ukraine exposed. For what I understand, Kiev does have air defense systems, and they're operating mostly in Kiev. But throughout the rest of Ukraine, it seems like there are no air defense systems.

and Korsk seems to have absorbed whatever military resources, including air defense, Ukraine, had left. Is that accurate? Yes, it is. I accept that, of course, it's rather more dramatic because Ukraine started the war in 2022 with a strong air defense system. That's been steadily whittled down by the Russians over the course of the war. Then in the spring, spring of this year, the Russians went. on an absolute spree of destroying Ukrainian air defense systems all across Ukraine, in Kiev, around Kiev, in all kinds of places.

And we've got lots and lots of films of key Ukrainian air defense missile systems being destroyed, Patriot systems, Irish D systems, S-300 systems left over from the Soviet era, book systems being destroyed. and then again there was a sort of hiatus there was a lot of talk about the west resupplying ukraine with more air defense systems they don't appear to have been delivered in any great quantity and kiev launched its kuzk offensive it deployed several air defense systems close to the russian border to support the kusk air offensive some of those air defense systems, including a Patriot missile system, a complete Patriot system, air defense system with three launches and one radar system

were caught by the Russians in the open and was destroyed. And one gets the sense that the only air defense systems that are left in any number and with any degree of effectiveness are all concentrated around Kiev. And even there, there are holes. All of the rest of Ukraine basically lies open. And that's coming back to the might first point, that's one of the reasons why these missile strikes now happen during the day. The Russians are able to show that they can send missiles,

they can pound anywhere that they want in Ukraine, and that there is absolutely no resistance to what they're doing. Yeah, it looks like it's the Kersk incursion that has accelerated the depletion of air defense, the fact that Ukraine is now completely exposed, with the exception of Kiev, completely exposed to Russian attacks. Kursk. Yes. Kirst seems to be the defining moment of which will lead to Ukraine's ultimate defeat.

I mean, it's all about this Kersk plan. Yes. This venture into Kursk has accelerated. What was already, it must be said clearly, what was already a slow motion collapse. It was going to happen. It was going to happen, but it's moved forward the dial very, very considerably. I think people underestimate, by the way, in the West,

the extent to which this has happened. And so big Russian advances all across the battlefronts. We discussed this in a recent program. And now we see that the air defense situation has essentially collapsed across Ukraine. So the Russians are, you know, taking advantage. And one sense is that they're now themselves moving into a high, gear and we could start to see some big events unfold over the next few weeks. To repeat again, Putin met with all the top people in the military, you know, the day before yesterday,

that looked very much like a council of war, the military briefing him on their plans. And one must suppose that this was all done, you know, in conjunction with this missile strike that we've now seen and as part of the offense of this coming. Yeah, it seems like Russia is fine to have what's happening in Kursk, to have this be another front. So now you have five fronts across the conflict in Ukraine, and they're fine to have Ukraine fighting in this additional front so that so that they can now just just concentrate their superiority in numbers and resources and everything and just concentrate that on on Dombas while Zelensky and his guys are are hyper-focused on Kursk, which is just the Ukraine military

effectively trapped inside of Russia and and Zelensky trapped in a narrative where he has to continue to feed into Kursk because if he pulled out of Kursk, well, then it would just be a huge embarrassing debacle for him. I mean, he's completely boxed himself in from an information war perspective. He's boxed himself in from a military perspective, resources, soldiers, everything. This has had to be the dumbest plan idea that he could have come up with that the collective West and NATO could have come up with. Well, it's what happens when you love allow information to dictate your policy. You know, media and narrative management.

You lose sight of the situation on the ground. If the original plan had been to capture the COUS nuclear power station, which is what I firmly believe, and by the way, the Russians have made clear that they too believe. I mean, I think this is an important observation to make. There are people who say that there's no evidence of this, but we do have some evidence. of this. And part of that evidence is that that's what the Russians say and believe and what they

say they have confirmation of. So I think that's an important point to say. If they managed to dash through and capture the Kusk nuclear power plant and hold it for a certain period of time, that would have made a difference. I mean, it's difficult to know what the long-term effect on the war might have been. It might have been that the Russians would have even been able to absorb that blow. But it would have been a dramatic event. It would have captured the attention of the world. It would have certainly created issues inside Russia itself. But they weren't able to do that. And the result is that they're now in a situation where exactly, as you say, they've focused all their forces in this area of hills and forests and streams and little villages on the border, creating a fifth front for themselves when all their front lines are already extremely overextended. they've just created this problem.

But because of the media story, the media narrative that they created around the Kusk operation, the fact that as they say, you know, they've turned the tables on the Russians and all of that, they can't pull back without being completely humiliated. And it seems to me that what they're doing instead, what Zelensky is trying to do, because this is his only real plan is on the one hand he can't withdraw from Kusk. He has to double and triple and quadruple down, but he's also again trying to get the West involved. He's now, again, agitating for permission, but not even permission, for assistance in carrying out missile strikes on Russia itself. He knows that the Russians have made that a red line.

He wants to cross that red line. He said that the Kusk Corporation proves that you can cross Russian red lines with no consequences, which, by the way, is not true. I mean, just to say, I mean, the Kusk Corporation did not cross any red line that the Russians themselves have set out. Missile strikes on Russia, which would involve the active involvement of the Western military in preparing and guiding. and launching the missiles, that would be crossing a Russian red line. And the Russians have said that they would respond. But that's what Zelensky wants to do, because he knows now that the only way that Ukraine can come through this is if it can widen the wall and involve the West directly in some way. And that's his

plan. That's the only plan he has. It's been the main plan that he's been trying to follow. since, well, last year or even before. But now he's taking it to extreme lengths, and he's busy lobbying Western governments to try to get them to do this. The British are already ultimately supporting him, as they always do. One gets the sense that other governments, Germany is not, and the US is always is dithering,

and probably in the end they will agree also, because that's what they do. I think the Russians will absorb that blow. There's reports in the US that if missile strikes are launched deep inside Russia, they will have no significant military effect. The Russians will retaliate, but they won't retaliate in the way that Zelensky wants. They won't enlarge the wall, but they will retaliate in all sorts of other places in the Middle East, wherever, at their own time. And I don't think it's going to help him. But when you run a war based on media, information, propaganda, that is the risk you run. Well, I mean, Russia will absorb it, but it is very dangerous and very unpredictable. I mean, you know, okay, so the UK definitely wants to, wants this to happen, without a doubt. So they're pushing for long-range missile strikes into Russia. we've gotten reports that the U.S. has actually been holding back this U.K. initiative of long-range missile strikes deep into Russian territory.

So the U.S. has been moderating the U.K.'s desire to start an all-out war is what we could be looking at. Because if this does happen, we don't really know what exactly could be the targets. You know, you're mentioning military targets, but is that really what Ukraine would go after? I mean, Russia's huge. Russia's a big country. And the minute that Ukraine has these long-range missiles and can say, well, you know, military targets, sure, airfield's okay, but maybe we'll strike other parts of Russia. That could be very dangerous, very unpredictable. and you could see a very heavy response from Russia, which could then lead to escalation

from the collective west side of things or from the NATO side of things. That's what Ellensky ultimately wants, absolutely. He needs the escalation. He needs to provoke Russia. He needs to provoke Russia to the point that NATO says, okay, we're not going to get involved in this conflict. So, I mean, it is a very dangerous strategy from Zelensky. And it could lead to an all-out war.

It's a dangerous strategy from the UK. I don't know what the UK is thinking here by actually pushing for this. Effectively, the UK is pushing for full-on, the possibility of a full-on war, World War III type of situation. Yeah, but they don't think so. You see, this is the trouble. They work themselves up into the position where they think that they can do this thing and that it won't have any consequences for them.

And I think that the previous government, the conservative government, had begun to have concerns and doubts. But now we have a new government with Stama and Heaney, who's the new Defence Secretary. I think they're not really very much up to speed. They've been pushed by their hardline people in the permanent state, if you like, in Britain. And I think that they're very, very inexperienced. They don't understand the issues very well. There are no strong restraints upon them. So they think that by taking very, very hardline positions, very extreme positions,

this will somehow play well with them, both amongst the Britain's European allies. And, you know, in the North London liberal community, which is ultimately their key constituents. I mean, bear in mind, Starma himself is a North London MP. He didn't do particularly well, by the way, his own constituency in the election. So he probably feels a certain need to shore up support. And that's probably why they're doing it. The US is different.

And here I think, again, we see a difference with the Pentagon. The Pentagon, basically, they're dropping leaks. They're saying, look, we don't really understand what the Ukrainians eruptu in Kusk. They've never provided us with any very clear explanation. Of course, that isn't really true. I mean, the original objective was to capture the Kusk nuclear power plant. That's clearly my own view. But what the Pentagon is now saying, well, now we have a plan, an operation,

which has no strategy behind it, no strategic goal that we can see. And, you know, we've been saying that on the, Iran. Ukrainian officers are now saying it that they're searching around. The Ukrainians are searching around for some kind of military and even political

rationale for this. One moment it's a buffer zone. Next moment it's not. One moment it's again territory that can be traded for other territory. Then that is dropped. Then they talk about the fact that they want to capture Russian prisoners to exchange them for the Ukrainian

prisoners, except that The Russians are capturing many more Ukrainians, and of course, the Ukrainians are capturing Russian. So, I mean, they're changing it. And the Pentagon is saying, this doesn't really make much sense. What's this all about? What is this operation, which we're intended to support? And beyond that, of course, the Pentagon is also making the absolutely logical point, which is that the missiles that we're talking about, the storm shadows and the attackers,

don't have the range to attack. targets everywhere in Russia. They're relatively short-range missile, and they may be not particularly short-range, but they intended to be battlefield weapons. They're not intended to conduct deep strikes, thousands of kilometers inside Russian territory. So, and they're not in particularly big supply. In fact, they're saying that they haven't been in much supply, and we have the embarrassing fact that the Russians are proving to be very successful in shooting these missiles down most of the Storm Shadows and the Attackams missiles that had been launched. The Russians have successfully shot down.

And there was a brief admission in Politico, by the way, that the Attackams has been a disappointment. So the Pentagon is coming along and they say, what, you know, what? is this all for in the end of the day? We're taking these enormous risks. We're crossing Russian red lines, but none of this makes any sort of military sense. The airfields, when 90% of the Russian air force is based, are outside the range of these missiles. The missiles are not proving terribly effective, and they're in short supply anyway. And the Ukrainians haven't explained to us what the strategy ultimately is. Now, this is coming from the military people, but of course you have the others, the political people, the people in Congress, various hardliners

there, who yearn for escalation. And ultimately, they will agitate and pressure for permission to be given for the missiles to be launched, knowing that it is a Russian red line. That is their objective to cross the Russian red line. Probably the Russians won't respond in the way that they want them to. So then as night follows day, when it becomes clear that these attackums and stormshadows aren't achieving very much, assuming in which there's still a Ukraine left, those start agitating for even more. And of course, the very long-range missiles of the Tomahawk missiles,

There is no way Ukraine could operate Tomahawk missiles and strike by itself deep into Russia. That would have to be done with the help of the US. But I predict that if things continue in the same way, three months, four months time, when the storm shadows and the attackers prove a failure, they will start saying, let's start sending the Tomahawks. and give those of the Ukrainians. And that's the way to force the Russians to negotiate, something of that kind. These people are sold on escalation.

They are part of the escalation escalator. There's an article today by Andrew Mitchell, who's the conservative foreign policy spokesman in the Daily Telegraph in Britain. He's basically advocating unlimited escalation. He talks about Beesman, about Chamberlain, about Churchill, all of these old things. But you can see that that's the incredibly dangerous game that these people are playing. So the military, the uniformed officers in the Pentagon don't like these ideas. We've done programs on the Duran with Theodore Pastole and Lawrence Wilkerson.

And they've told us, both of them, that there is this division within the Pentagon, between the military, the uniformed people and the civilians. The uniformed people don't like this. They can see the danger. The civilians, neocons, all of them, they wanted to happen, as to all sorts of other people in the State Department, the intelligence community, the think tanks and all of that. Yeah, I mean, just a final thought.

You know, you green light the use of long-range missiles into pre-2014 Russian territory, And you leave that to Ukraine to decide the targets or, you know, with certain forces in NATO, they decide on the targets. But, you know, you always worry about the targeting of civilian areas. And that could be extremely dangerous. And that would warrant a very, very heavy response from Russia if something like that were to happen. I mean, it's just such a dangerous game that the Neocons and Zelenskyy are, are playing or pushing for, that it's just very unpredictable and very dangerous and could lead to terrible consequences.

Well, bear in mind that the Ukrainians have targeted nuclear power stations. Now, I happen to believe that the objective of the Kusk cooperation, and the Russians believe that the objective of the Kuzk operation was to capture the Kuznuclear Power station. But if you don't believe that, if you don't want to believe that, take the fact that the Ukrainians have shelled the Zaporozhia nuclear power station. Now, it's not us on the Duran who are saying that has happened. The American media have admitted it. There have been articles, I think it was in the New York Times, actually saying that the Ukrainians shelved the Zaporosia nuclear power station. Now, are you going to give long-range missiles to people who are prepared to do

that kind of thing? It doesn't seem a good idea. Are you going to assist them to do things like that? Again, it doesn't seem a good idea. But obviously, there are some people in the West who are prepared to go down there, that road. Yeah, remember when the missile landed in Poland, Zelensky was more than, more than happy to say this was a Russia missile. And we need Article 5, World War III. NATO, let's go. I mean, he doesn't have any problems because his power

depends on it. He has no problems escalating this to a huge war between Russia and the collective West. Not a covert and not a proxy war, like an open war. I was listening to his speech at the Munich Security Conference in February 2020

when he was straightforwardly discussing nuclear weapons and Ukraine giving away nuclear weapons and perhaps well, the Russian soiders. And you could see why Ukraine wanting to get hold of nuclear weapons. And as the Russians have pointed out, Zelensky made this incredible speech. He wasn't perhaps quite as explicit as the Russians say, but he came very close. And all of these Western leaders were there and they were all applauding, clapping, and not a single one of them came back and said,

you know, hold on, this is going much too far. You shouldn't be. talking in this way. And so he's been quite open about what he's tried, been trying to do, basically since even before the conflict started, he wants to widen the war because as the Russians close in, and that's exactly what they're doing. That is his only way out. That's the only way that he and the Maidan movement that he sort of leads can carry out their program in Ukraine, one which, by the way, has now resulted in the banning of the Russian Orthodox Church in Ukraine, which is the canonical Orthodox Church in Ukraine, something which, as a number of Russian commentators have pointed out, the Soviets never did. Just saying. Yeah, so they can prop up the fake

Mike Pompeo, CIA Church of Ukraine. Jeffrey Pia, yeah. Yeah, Paiy, which unfortunately, many of the churches in the Collective West, the Orthodox Churches in the Collective West have recognized. Yes. Others have not. Yeah. But anyway, that's a different video for a different time.

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