The Duran Podcast - Putin-Trump call. High stakes and great risks for both leaders

Episode Date: May 20, 2025

Putin-Trump call. High stakes and great risks for both leaders ...

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 All right, Alexander, let's talk about the phone call between U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, a two-hour phone call. We have a statement from Putin. He spoke to the media. We have a truth social post from Trump. We also have a follow-up statement from Uschakov as well, from the Russian side of things. Your initial thoughts on the conversation between the Russian president and the president of the United States. Right. Well, a two-hour call, first of all, is an extraordinarily long telephone call. That is the first thing.
Starting point is 00:00:40 I mean, they clearly went over a huge amount, probably more than just Ukraine, but I suspect most of it was about Ukraine. And I suspect also that much of this call was probably Putin trying to explain and make Trump understand what the Russian position is and trying to make him understand that this is for real. I think this is my initial view that a Trump Putin summit is now probably coming over the horizon. I think that's probably now just a few weeks away. I think there's still a lot, some work to do, but it's probably that's where we're going. The third thing is that Trump I think is beginning to understand that the Russians are serious when they talk about
Starting point is 00:01:34 Istanbul Plus and is probably gradually coming round to Istanbul Plus. Now, what happened was that Putin came along and said, look, this is our objective. We are prepared to work with the Ukrainians. We want to get a memorandum and a memorandum of agreement. organized, that might include a ceasefire, but notice he didn't commit to a ceasefire. But the point is that it looks as if what the Russians and the Americans are going to try to agree with, perhaps between each other, but certainly obviously in the meantime involving Ukraine, is that they're going to try to set up a timeline for these negotiations.
Starting point is 00:02:25 so that these various things have to be aggrieved by particular dates. Now, that is going to put pressure on every party, but perhaps most especially on Ukraine. And if Zelensky is unhappy about this and throws tantrums, which he's quite likely to do. He already is. Well, he already is, exactly. We'll come to the Ukrainians.
Starting point is 00:02:49 You'll come to that, yeah. We'll come to the Ukrainians in a moment. But, I mean, he may find that, you know, he's on the wrong side of Trump over that one. So, I mean, it's a challenging idea. But I think it was something that, and it's an unorthodox one, I should say, it's unconventional. I mean, when you do negotiations like this, you don't usually try to set out a timetable to get every point agreed. And there are risks for Russia in doing that, too. And I think I should make that clear because with every approach to the deadline, there's going to be a battle to try to get somebody or rather to make concessions.
Starting point is 00:03:30 If they don't make concessions and if somebody gets blamed, it could go bad. But for the moment, at least, Putin has, I think, convinced Trump that he's serious about these negotiations. He's explained to Trump why this approach is the right one. and he's got, for the moment at least, Trump on side. I think, that's why I think that a one-to-one meeting between the two is probably needed to actually get this thing fully understood between them. Now, the Europeans are very unhappy. I've been reading in the Financial Times that Trump briefed them about the call
Starting point is 00:04:14 and that they are collectively stunned, that they don't like this at all. And as for Zelensky, well, he's furious. And who could be surprised? Because he's still not getting what he wanted. He's not getting the full American backing that he wanted. He's not getting the overall sanctions that he wanted. So he doesn't like this at all. And he's going to go on pushing back.
Starting point is 00:04:40 The Europeans are very, very unhappy. Can I say that obviously I'm still in Russia, but I keep up with what you've been doing and what others have been doing. I saw that you put out an excellent post on X, an excellent message on X, where you made the point that what the Europeans really want is to keep the United States fully engaged, not just in Project Ukraine, but in Europe. they want the war and they want the confrontation to continue so that the United States can remain committed in some form to the globalist project. That is exactly correct. I agree with every word of your message. And of course, what has just been discussed between Putin and Trump goes into conflict with that. So the Europeans already telling the media that they are very unhappy with this call. The Ukrainians making no secret of the fact that they are unhappy with
Starting point is 00:05:42 this call. Trump and Putin, for the moment at least, appearing to be in harmony with each other, but lots of problems and troubles along the way. I mean, this is only just one further step in what's looking to be a very difficult process. That's my take. Yeah, well, Ushikov said that the phone call was was was very well conducted, very friendly. He said that the two leaders, actually he said that the two leaders were not hanging up. That's what he actually said. He said they were not hanging up. Trump was saying, you hang up and Putin was saying, you hang up, something like that, that type of scenario, like two friends actually talking. Now, whether you want to believe this, that's up to you.
Starting point is 00:06:35 I mean, I'm just telling you what Ushikov said when he was talking to the media. I believe it because they got along during Trump's first term as well. And Trump made no secret of that, that he got along with Putin and Putin has made no secret of the fact that he gets along with Trump. They like each other. Certainly, and I think this is perhaps something that isn't understood properly. I don't know how well Trump knows Putin. Putin has obviously researched Trump very thoroughly and clearly likes him.
Starting point is 00:07:07 If Putin didn't like Trump, he would be responding to Trump in a completely different way. Putin likes Trump. He sees Trump as genuine and sincere and understands where he's coming from and wants to help him. So I think that probably played a big role in making the call succeed because Trump, of course, responds to that. that. I think the one thing to say is the Russians, you know, I am currently in Russia, and I've seen again how the Russians organize things. They will have organized and prepared for this call meticulously. There will have been lots of discussions at the Kremlin, with Ushikov, with probably the members of the negotiating team. They will have worked very,
Starting point is 00:07:56 very hard to make sure that this call succeeded. Yeah, well, that takes me to my question. which is why is Putin making such a great effort to get along with Trump? I'm not saying he shouldn't. It's a question that you see pop up a lot, which is why is Putin going through all of these motions when it's obvious that the United States is not a mediator in this conflict. That's an excellent question. They are, they are part of this conflict. The sponsor, they are the puppet masters of the proxy of Zelensky. They control the Europeans if they really want to exert influence on Zelensky and the Europeans. They absolutely could do it.
Starting point is 00:08:47 If they really wanted to end this conflict, if they really wanted to tell Zelensky to stop and the Europeans to stop, there's no doubt that the United States could do it. They could do it in 24 hours. Yes. No doubt about it. None. So why is Putin going through the motions of this Russia? And I guess you can call it theater to a certain extent.
Starting point is 00:09:17 This theater of Russia speaking with the United States as if the United States is a mediator in this process. Right. Now, there's a lot of things to say here. First of all, the question that you have just, asked is being asked in Russia. Now, I'm currently in Russia. Now, when I say that, when I say what I've just said, Dmitry Medvedev has just, you know, the former president has just made comments. He's talked about all out war and the fact that Russia should consider all out war of the negotiations fail. One gets the sense that he is not convinced that devoting
Starting point is 00:10:00 all this time to relations with the United States is ultimately worthwhile. Now, that's Medvedev, and I'm to some extent interpreting him, but I'm at a legal forum here. Now, I want to stress this is a legal forum. It is not principally about politics, but obviously political matters do come up. And I was at a panel today, and I heard one Russian participant, a very senior Russian participant, very eloquent, a lawyer, a senior lawyer, a judge in fact. And he said, you know, why are we being so accommodating? Isn't this being our consistent mistake? Why have we not pushed back harder, for example, against horrible ideas like the rules-based international order? We, that is to say, Russia, should have taken a much stronger line about this all along. Why have we
Starting point is 00:10:55 waited so long before we respond and push back against these things. Now, I'm here, as I said, in a conference. You hear comments like this being made all the time. And that is, I think it's fair to say, the Russian view. I would say that anybody who's under any illusions about this, if they spent time here and spoke to the kind of people who I have been speaking about, who are not, let me stress again, political people, they're legal people. You can definitely see a general stiffening in attitudes towards the West. So Putin is going out on a limb on this, spending all this time, working with the Americans, trying to keep the Americans on side. He's not made any compromises on Ukraine. Now, I don't think he ever will, but he's still clear.
Starting point is 00:11:52 really wants to have a long-term and good relationship with the United States. And as I said, this is not a view that is universally shared, and it's absolutely not shared about the war. I think that Putin wants to do this for one overriding reason. I think he believes it is in Russia's national interests to have some kind of civil relationship with the United States, that it is the way of guarantee or at least protecting Russia's security for at least, say, the next five to ten years so that Russia can continue to consolidate during that time and that he sees in Trump a president who has a genuine desire for good relationship with Russia
Starting point is 00:12:49 and who can potentially deliver that to him, to Putin and to Russia. But can I stress again, this is not a universally shared view here. If things start to go wrong, if the relationship with the United States actually deteriorates, I can imagine Putin coming in for quite a lot of criticism, maybe not public criticism, from some of the people I've seen, but certainly criticism, and Russians are outspoken, there is a public opinion, it does manifest itself, you do hear it, you do hear it expressed, so Putin will come in for criticism, and there already is criticism of him. I'm sure you've read it. There was an article in the New York Times, which for once made the effort of trying to find out
Starting point is 00:13:48 what sentiments were in the Russian army. And the Russian soldiers were saying, yes, we are tired of war, but no, we are not prepared to settle for half a deal. We want to see this war end in victory, not in some shabby compromise, which will betray the sacrifice that our comrades have made, and which could result in Russia facing more confrontations in the future. So Putin is giving all the time that he is to this dialogue. It is not uncontroversial. I have explained his reasons. Not everybody in Russia agrees with him. Well, he's going to be pressured to make compromises. Yes. And most likely he's going to have to make some compromises. I think that's going to be inevitable once they start to negotiate. Once the two leaders meet, there's going to be something. There's going to be something
Starting point is 00:14:47 that Putin is going to have to compromise on. I don't know what it's going to be. And maybe he has some things that he's prepared to compromise on. Maybe his administration has decided that they'll compromise on certain issues if they actually get into a negotiation with the president of the United States. Doesn't that run counter to root causes? Right. I think he's prepared to make compromises with the Americans, but I don't think it is about the conflict in the United States. Ukraine. This is, I think, at least what Putin is saying to himself, he's saying to himself, I am prepared to compromise with the US on trade issues. I might be prepared to allow the Americans access to the Russian energy system, for example. I might be prepared to allow the
Starting point is 00:15:39 Americans some access to rare earths, which might not be controversial with some people in Russia, It might not please China. It might create problems of that kind going forward. So far, on Ukraine, he has made no compromises at all. And I think that in his own mind, he's not prepared at this moment in time, he's not willing to do that. If he was going to make compromises on Ukraine or was prepared to do that, I think he would have signaled that much more clearly in today's conversation than he appears to have done.
Starting point is 00:16:24 So I think he does understand that there will be compromises. I don't think they will be on the topic of Ukraine. I think he thinks he can do a global deal with Trump, but not on Ukraine. Now, that may be completely unrealistic. It may face all kinds of problems. Putin is trying to do something very, very difficult. I'm not saying he will succeed. Right. Trump is saying that what he can give to Russia, the carrot that the United States can give to Russia is business if Russia makes compromises on Ukraine. That's what J.D. Vance said in an interview, that is what the Trump administration is saying. We'll do massive trade. Actually, that's what Trump posted on Truth Social, to be honest. He said, we'll do massive.
Starting point is 00:17:16 trade if you make compromises, if we can solve the conflict in Ukraine. So that's the carrot that the U.S. is dangling. But maybe, maybe Putin being the judo master that he is, maybe what's really going to happen is that he's going to offer the United States business with Russia and with the Russian market if the United States drops Project Ukraine. Yes. So maybe he'll turn it around. Yes. You see, this is where I think the Americans are getting this completely wrong, because I think they think that Russia is yearning for trade with the United States. Now, as I said, I've only been in Russia for a relatively short time, and I've not been, I've obviously had an opportunity to get a full sense of the situation here. But I'm going to make a general observation that the Russia that I'm seeing today is a much richer place than the Russia I saw.
Starting point is 00:18:15 or seven years ago. Now, that is surprising to me. I hadn't expected to see the difference that I am seeing, but there is a palpable difference. So it is a richer country. It seems to be a more confident country. It is, by the way, a much more outspoken country on many matters. I think the Americans think that they can offer Russia trade. What the Russians really want from the US is not trade because arguably they don't need it. What the Russians want is security. So the Russians want security and it is they who are dangling the idea of trade to the Americans. It is, if anything, from a Russian point of view, and I'm talking now from a Russian point of view, the other way around. So I think this is against something which perhaps the Americans don't fully understand.
Starting point is 00:19:14 understand and which they need perhaps to understand. I am surprised, I've been surprised at how much more prosperous, affluent Russia is compared to the Russia I remember from seven years ago. Just say. Yeah. So Zelensky, he has already come out with a statement and said that Ukraine will continue to pursue entry into NATO. Okay, whatever. And he also said that Ukraine will, under no circumstances, give up territory or recognize occupied territory, something along those lines was his statement.
Starting point is 00:19:57 So he already came out very quickly and basically told the Trump administration that he is not going to agree to any of Russia's June 24 root cause Istanbul-plus terms. So that's Zelensky. Other MPs in Ukraine pretty much came out with the same statement, and they were shocked and horrified at the conversation, the details that have been provided about the conversation between Trump and Putin. So what Trump got out of this is that he got time and space out of this because he was very, very close with a lot of pressure from the neocons, people like Lindsay Graham, the Europeans. They were putting a lot of pressure on Trump, and they wanted him to place sanctions on Russia. Yes. Pressure Russia to agree to a 30-day
Starting point is 00:21:00 unconditional ceasefire, which they knew Russia would never agree to. And once Putin shoots that down, then you have to place sanctions on Russia. And so with this phone call, it looks like Trump has sidestepped the whole sanctions issue, which is a good thing for Trump. It is an extremely good thing for Trump. Now, can I just say something about this? Because all of this brings us back to Putin and the very real gamble that Putin is taking, which is that, of course, Putin has one enormous ally in this gamble, who is Zelensky.
Starting point is 00:21:40 Because Zelensky, ever since Trump came along and became president and started talking peace, it's absolutely clear that the person who is most unhappy about the whole talk about peace is Zelensky himself. Putin comes along, he says to Trump, look, I'm not. for peace too. I want peace. You want peace. I want peace. The U.S. needs peace. Russia needs peace. We are not opposed to peace. We're not even opposed to a ceasefire. We have all these conditions that we must satisfy for that to be a ceasefire. But we're not saying that we will never, ever agree to a ceasefire. We have to see these conditions fulfilled. But one day, hopefully, we will see a ceasefire. Zolensky is completely different.
Starting point is 00:22:34 He comes across as this person who has this colossal sense of entitlement. He believes that he should have Crimea back, the four regions back, NATO entry, EU entry. He's now negotiating a war crimes tribunal with the Europeans. He wants to put the Russians on trial. He wants to put Putin on trial. He is not prepared to make any compromises at all. he's saying so, and he's saying it repeatedly, and he's saying it in the most insulting and language. And of course, that works to Putin's advantage, because Putin could say to Trump,
Starting point is 00:23:16 look, I'm being as reasonable as I can. I'm going out of my way to be helpful to you. I am not the problem. Zelensky is the problem. And though I'm sure that Putin is not saying this, the implication also is all of those European leaders, Macron, Mertz, Stama, Tursk, all of them, Ursula, they're the problem too, because instead of helping you, their great ally and protector, they continue to block Zolensky, who is this major obstacle to peace. So, as I said, Putin has in Zelenskyy a genuine ally at the, the moment. Now, there is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that the big winner from this call is Donald Trump, not Vladimir Putin. Vladimir Putin has had to agree to a timetable and all of
Starting point is 00:24:17 this to move the process forward. I doubt that if it was entirely left to him, he would have agreed to that. He's made no concessions at all, as we've discussed. But he's now, tied himself down to the idea of a timetable. Trump did not want to impose sanctions on Russia. The Europeans and the neocons, people within his own administration like Kellogg and probably Rubio, Lindsay Graham in the Senate were all maneuvering to box him in so that he imposed these massive sanctions, punitive sanctions on Russia. Now, if that were to happen, a number of things would have followed. Firstly, the Russians would have ridden out the sanctions.
Starting point is 00:25:11 I mean, I think that's a critically important thing to say. There are still people who simply won't accept that, but I have absolutely no doubt that that is the case. That's the first thing. The second is that with sanctions like that, legislated by Congress, they are almost impossible to remove. So a rapprochement between Russia and the United States would have become impossible. The prospect of it would have gone forever. Going back to what you said in your ex-message, the Europeans would have got what they wanted. They'd have got a permanent confrontation between Russia and the United States. the United States would have been permanently locked into Europe.
Starting point is 00:26:01 It would have been permanently locked into supporting the globalist project, even though it's a project that Trump himself personally detests. So this agreement avoids that, avoids that, and that's good for Trump. But there is something else to say, which is that, of course, if there had been sanctions, if there had been a complete rupture in relations between Russia and the United States, the peace talks in Istanbul would have collapsed, the Ukrainians would have seen no reason to continue with them. The Russians would then have moved on with the war.
Starting point is 00:26:49 The war would continue to a victorious conclusion from the Russian point of view. Kiev would have fallen, Trump would have been left with a Saigon moment, and as you've said previously, in other programmes we've done, all of these people, Lindsay Graham, Kellogg, all of the people who advocate for this hardline policy would have turned round on Trump and blamed him. So he would have potentially destroyed his presidency, destroyed the possibility of our approachment, Russia, locked the United States into indefinite support for Europe, keeping American troops indefinitely in Europe. And through actually pretty deft maneuvering over the last 10 days, Putin provided the off-ramp, but Trump had the skill and intelligence to use it through pretty
Starting point is 00:27:56 deft maneuvering. Trump has avoided it. And he's come out of this conversation with Putin in a stronger position than he was when he went in. Yeah, I agree with that. Putin has made no concessions, but he did agree to a timeline. Yes. And it's important to point that out.
Starting point is 00:28:17 And there are many risks for Putin and Russia agreeing to this timeline. I mean, I just say going forward what Putin will need to do if he is to avoid being blamed for the collapse of the talks. And there are some people in Russia who wouldn't be bothered, by the way, if Russia were to blame for the collapse of the talks. They'd say, well, you know, why were you wasting our time with these talks anyway? Well, I don't think that's what people are worried about in Russia or on the contrary. I think people are worried about that Putin might make concessions. Exactly. But from Putin's point of view, if he wants to maintain the momentum, you're absolutely right, by the way,
Starting point is 00:29:00 if Putin wants to maintain the momentum towards some kind of rapprochement with the United States, he will need to continue to maneuver in a way that, in ensuring, that the blame for any failure to fulfill the timeline rests with Zelensky. And Zelensky seems determined to help Putin to achieve that. It is still a risk. There is still a gamble there. Putin is taking risks. More risks than many people in Russia like, but he's the president of Russia.
Starting point is 00:29:37 That is his decision. and for the moment he is in control and is able to make these decisions and he's just made them. Well, that's what's going to bother a lot of people is that Putin is taking risks in order to normalize relations with the United States and to accommodate Trump. And a lot of people are viewing this as Putin, accommodating the side that escalated and fueled this conflict going back to 2014 and even before then. That's why you always get the question. Why is he doing this? Why is Putin going along and pretending as if the United States is the mediator in all of this? It is theater.
Starting point is 00:30:24 And Putin is playing a part in this. this theater. He's participating in this theater. There's no doubt about that. Yeah, I mean, absolutely. I mean, so far, he's played his role with immense skill, but there are lots of people in Russia. And I cannot emphasize this too strongly. As I said, I am here. I'm getting a sense of the sentiment here. There are lots of people in Russia who say, yes, you're performing this play very well. But why are you bothering with the play at all? What is the sense of this?
Starting point is 00:31:04 I mean, ultimately, we can't trust the Americans. So why are we wasting our time with them? I mean, you're going to open yourself up to pressure to make concessions in the future. Yes, you don't intend to make those concessions. but why are you opening yourself up to the pressure of being asked to make those concessions at all? Isn't that an inherently risky position to take? So that that criticism exists. There is no doubt about it. I am sure it is being made in the Kremlin as well. That is why, by the way, when the negotiating team was chosen to go to,
Starting point is 00:31:51 to Istanbul, the military clearly insisted on having their own top people, many of their own top people, included in the negotiating team, and why they also insisted in this extraordinary meeting that happened in the Kremlin, that all of them, the entire military, all the commanders of the groups of forces should be present and should participate in the discussion. So you can see that there is tension and nervousness about this in Russia. And this telephone conversation is not going to allay that. They'll go away and they'll say, he's our president, we continue to support him, which they do, by the way. He gives the impression that he knows what he is doing.
Starting point is 00:32:42 But that doesn't mean we don't have our doubts. Yeah. The big risk that he's taken as he's going down this path and he's playing along with this theater is that he's going up against the neocons. He's going up against the Europeans. And more importantly, he's going up against the entire collective West Mainstream media. And we saw how they twisted and just flat out lied about the statement, the speech that he made last week, last Saturday. Saturday evening when he called for the negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, and they completely twisted that around, and they turned it into Zelensky being the peacemaker, and Zelensky saying that he will meet Putin in Istanbul, and it was Putin that didn't show up. And they completely turned it around. And once again, they made Putin to look like the bad guy, to look like the leader that refused to meet with Zelensky, and they turned Zelensky.
Starting point is 00:33:44 into the heroic figure who showed up in Istanbul and was ready to meet Putin on Russia's initiative. The Financial Times actually wrote an article and said, this was the initiative of Russia to have a meeting between the two leaders. And Putin said, no such thing. But he's going up against this. And there's no doubt that Trump reads this. There's no doubt that his administration reads these articles. And there's no doubt that his administration, they advise Trump based on what they're reading
Starting point is 00:34:12 on the Financial Times, CNN and the New York Times. And, you can also see, you just want to add, some of these articles are probably being written by people within Trump's own administration. Yeah, exactly. I mean, bear that in mind too. So, I mean, this pressure is there. It's coming from all sorts of directions. And, I mean, Putin will require all his formidable, it must be said, strength of will.
Starting point is 00:34:42 and his diplomatic skills to resist this. And if I have to say, I think he will, I think if he was intending to make concessions, fundamental concessions, by now he would have given some indication that he was going to do so. But, but that doubt, that fear continues to be there. I agree in his statement to the media after he spoke with Trump, Putin said root causes again. He said root causes. Yes. So I agree with you. He's not going to make concessions on Ukraine.
Starting point is 00:35:17 Yes. But you can see how the Europeans and how Kellogg, they're working together, no doubt about it. You can see how they've adjusted the narrative of their plan. It's very subtle, but it's very clever. They're not calling it a freeze plan anymore. They're not calling it a ceasefire plan. It's now a 22-point plan. Yes.
Starting point is 00:35:39 You can see that there's been a shift in narrative. And they've understood that the Russians don't want to hear ceasefire. They don't want to hear freeze. So now let's shift it up. Let's change it up. And let's call it a 22-point plan. And let's also present it to Trump in that manner. It's a 22-point plan, Mr. President.
Starting point is 00:35:59 You see, we put a lot of thought into it. It's not just a simple ceasefire plan. It's not a third-day unconditional ceasefire plan. It's a 22-point plan. Doesn't that sound nice, Mr. President? Should Russia agree to this 22-point plan? Yes. put a lot of thought and effort into it.
Starting point is 00:36:12 Your thoughts on that, but just to wrap up the video, what happens when they meet? What happens when Putin does explain things to Trump? When he tells Trump the reality of the situation, Trump is going to be left with a choice. The U.S. president is going to have to decide. Do I walk away from Project Ukraine? Do I tell Zelensky and the Europeans to accept Istanbul plus? they're not going to accept it. Do I force them?
Starting point is 00:36:43 Or do I just throw in the towel and say, you know what? Who am I to go up against the globalists? And the military duster complex and my buddy, Lindsey Graham, let's just go with the sanctions. Yeah. Let's wrap up the video on your talk. Before we finish with Lindsay Graham, you said that Kellogg is working hand in glove with the Europeans, which he undoubtedly is. I mean, there's no doubt about this any longer. Do you think Grubeau is too?
Starting point is 00:37:06 But Lindsay Graham is also. And do you think Rubio as well as? All of them. All of them. They're all calling each other. They're phoning each other. They're doing all kinds of debates with each other. They understand that they can't get around Trump because he's too politically strong in the United
Starting point is 00:37:29 States to be simply ignored in the way that he was in his first term. But they're all maneuvering. the time, constantly, to try to turn Trump towards the position that they want. So, Lindsay Graham is talking to the Europeans. There was an article, I think it was in the Financial Times, that confirmed it. And Kellogg obviously is. And Rubio is. I mean, Rubio has calls with David Lammy, the British Foreign Secretary.
Starting point is 00:38:03 This is going on constantly. and all the time. And you're absolutely right about the 22-point plan. I mean, the one that now they put together, it's no longer a freeze, as he said, it's no longer just a 30-day ceasefire. It's a 22-point plan. Now, however, and this brings us back to Putin,
Starting point is 00:38:25 presumably this 22-point plan was sent to Putin, and he apparently rejected it outright. and he refused to host Whitkoff when Whitkoff was apparently being sent to Moscow to talk about this. So it looks as if Putin is already signaling very clearly that he's not going to accept this 22 point plan. So if Trump wants to go ahead with the 22 point plan, he has to know by now, he must know, by now, that he will be acting against Putin's wishes and that this will lead him into a confrontation with Putin. Now, the big question is, what ultimately is Trump going to do? He is, he apparently feels that he can't just sack Kellogg and ignore Rubio and tell the Europeans to get
Starting point is 00:39:34 lost. He's playing with them all the time, despite the strength of his political position. And of course, this opens this whole problem up to this constant intrigue that we've been seeing play out ever since January. Now, I have to say this, there will come a point in time when he does have to make a decision. Does he go along with what Putin is telling him, that the Russians are trying to find a way out, that it's the Ukraine, that it's the Ukraine, who the obstacle, that the Europeans are supporting the Ukrainians, which they obviously are, and that this is the reason why this thing is getting stuck in the way that it was. Or does he capitulate to the neocons and the Europeans and the Ukrainians and go for the all-out
Starting point is 00:40:23 sanctions against Russia? I think that Trump doesn't want to make that decision. And I think he's bought himself a few more months or we. of time before he has to make it. But this can't go on indefinitely. At some point, if Putin remains firm, which I expect he will, the decision will be forced on him. He'll have to choose one way or the other. So, you know, I don't know what he's going to do. What I will say is this. He clearly doesn't want to go with the near cons. I mean, his instinct probably his instinct more than his knowledge
Starting point is 00:41:07 because one senses that with Trump he doesn't go into the details of things very minutely. One of the reasons why I think Putin might want to meet with Trump is because this will be Putin's opportunity to go through the details with Trump. But anyway, I think Trump's instinct tells him going with Lindsay Graham, imposing these massive bone-crushing sanctions against Russia
Starting point is 00:41:33 is going to be a disastrous mistake. If we go there, we will not break the Russians. We will create all kinds of problems for ourselves with China, with India, with all kinds of other countries. And on top of that, we are going to lose in Ukraine. And that I, Donald Trump, will be the person who gets blamed for it. He probably isn't articulating it to himself in the kind of structured way that I have done.
Starting point is 00:42:02 But I think that is his instinct. But Trump, when he follows his instincts, tends to get things right. When he listens to advice or tries to think the matter through too much, he sometimes can go seriously wrong. He's one of those rare people who's better following his instincts than trying to calculate his way through a problem. All right. Well, the decision's coming quickly. It's fast approaching. It's fast approaching. I mean, he's probably, I'm going to make a guess. He's probably, he may think he's bought himself months. I reckon three weeks at most. Yeah. And Russia will continue to fulfill the objectives of the special military operation, one way or another. They're advancing it. Whether it's through diplomacy or whether it's militarily. And they've said as much.
Starting point is 00:42:58 Well, exactly. Well, I mean, this is, by the way, a very Russian thing. I mean, this is a point to always make about Russians. The Russians don't see diplomacy as an alternative to war in the way that perhaps the tradition has been in the West. They understand. Remember our first program, almost our first program, about when the war began, that they're Klausivizians. They see diplomacy in war as to instruments that are used ultimately. alternatively and simultaneously in order to achieve the state's objectives. So that is in effect what they're doing.
Starting point is 00:43:40 All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, picture, telegram, rockfin, and X. Go to the Durant shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.

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