The Duran Podcast - Putin-Trump summit. Orban outsmarts warhawks

Episode Date: October 17, 2025

Putin-Trump summit. Orban outsmarts warhawks

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the Putin-Trump phone call. And we also have U.S. President Trump meeting with Zelensky today. So let's talk, let's start off with the phone call from yesterday. Kind of came out of the blue. But they had a two-hour phone call. Some reports say a little less than two hours. Other reports say two and a half hours. But either way, a long phone call between the Russian president.

and the US president. And it is my understanding that this was initiated by Putin, by Russia. Yeah. That's what Uschikov said in the readout, right? Well, not actually, not actually in the readout. Other sections of the Russian media are saying this. But if you look at the Russian readout, there is no reference to who initiated the call at all. The Russian media says...

Some sections of the Russian media are saying it. But Ushikov does not say who initiated the call. And I mean, I think it's likely that it was Putin. But anyway, what I will say is it was a very, very interesting readout and quite different from readouts that we've had from Ushikov in the past. And perhaps explain some things about some of the things that there's very strange things that have been happening over the course of the last week. But as you absolutely rightly say, came out of the blue and on the eve of Zelensky's arrival in Washington. So shall I

discuss the readout? Because the readout is actually interesting. Well, yeah, let's discuss the readout. But also let's hear your thoughts about the fact that it does look like it appears as if Putin did initiate that call. That does tell us something if it is true. Well, if it is true, because to stress again, Ushikov doesn't say it. So I think this call has been in the works for several days. I think that the Americans of the Russians, Putin and Trump, have been working to speak with each other for several days probably for at least a week. And I think that probably explains some of the rather extraordinary comments

that Putin has been making, which had been causing all this trouble. And I think that what probably triggered the movements towards the call was some of these statements that we were hearing in Russia, people like Riyarbka saying that Alaska has come to a complete stop, critical words by people like Lavaev himself, and, of course, that rather tough meeting with the generals that Putin had in, St. Peter. Now, they did speak, and they seemed to me, if you go by Uschekhov's call, that had a more contentious... Oshikov's Redoubt. A rejikov's readout, sorry, a more contentious conversation than anyone that they have had up to this time.

Firstly, Ushikov does say that it lasted for two and a half hours, and I think that makes it the longest conversation. that Putin and Trump have had up to this time. Secondly, Ushikov does not say at any point that this was a friendly or positive conversation. The most that he says is that it was quite useful. So there's much less of the favorable, you know, spin about this conversation from Ushikov that we have seen in the past. Now, there were things between the two of them, which suggested that there was some degree of friendliness again. Putin congratulated Trump on the Gaza ceasefire, ensured him that Russia supports his moves

to achieve peace of the Middle East. He said nice words about Melania, of which Melania, which Trump clearly appreciated. They both spoke about how Americans and Russians. as people get on with each other and how there were compatibilities during the Second World War. But in other respects, and I'm taking this entirely from Usherkhov's read out, which I think is the more interesting one, each man talked about different things. So Trump complained to Putin that this is the most difficult war, the war in Ukraine, the most difficult war to settle that he has come across up. And now he said that's many times.

He said, if we can settle this war, then we're going to have all these tremendous, tremendous opportunities to develop economic linkages with each other. And Ushikov makes it clear that it was Trump who was raising the economic and commercial opportunities. According to Ushikov, Putin spoke about quite different things. Firstly, according to Ushikov, Putin appears to have devoted a significant part of his conversation to trying to explain to Trump the actual real situation on the front lines, that it is not the Ukrainians who are winning, that it is the Russians and that the Russians are advancing and not the other way around.

And the second is that Putin also made it absolutely clear to Trump. This is again, according to Usikas, read out, that if the Tomahawk missiles are indeed supplied to Ukraine, not only will that knock relations between Russia and the United States backwards, but it will also knock any prospects of peace, a negotiated peace, being achieved in Ukraine, backwards as well. So Trump talks about commercial business opportunities. Putin talks about security issues and in a quite useful call. And again, apparently Trump then suggested that they meet again and suggested Budapest and Putin agreed. And that is interesting in itself and we'll come to the implications of that later. Yeah, the location is very interesting. It's a location of Trump's choosing. Yeah.

It should be, the second meeting should have been a location of Putin's choosing. But the fact that Trump is choosing the location and Putin has agreed to it is a concession in a way. It's a big concession. And it's a dangerous, it's a dangerous. It's good and it's dangerous as well. It's good for various reasons. Let's just talk about the location now. It's good for various reasons.

Orban, Budapest, obviously, is going to piss off Zelensky and Ukraine. It's going to really piss them off. It's going to absolutely anger the Europeans. So it's clever in that respect, right? So it's going to infuriate the Europeans, Ukraine, in a major way. It's a big win for Orban. Let's not forget that Arban has an election. And this is a huge.

deal for him to be hosting this summit that's going to take place. So it's a huge win for Arbonne. Yes. But on the flip side, it's risky. Yeah. It's very dangerous for Putin to go to the heart, the heart of the EU and NATO. I mean, he's right there in the center. The travel to Hungary is going to have to, I imagine, would have to go Turkey, Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, I imagine, I imagine. imagine because the other route of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, I imagine that NATO and Poland are going to try to shoot down whatever plane passes over their airspace. I mean, it is very risky. And I personally, if I was Putin, I would avoid Bulgaria, by the way. I would go through Greece.

Greece is the other option. Yeah. I would not, I would not. But you're absolutely correct. This is going to be, this is going to be very difficult because we know that, you know, the Europeans have an ICC warrant for Putin, trying to get the Bulgarians and the Greeks to let the flight pass through their airspace is going to be problematic. There's going to have to be a lot of work done by the Americans to make sure that there is a safe route for Putin to pass over these countries. Even then, even then, I have to say, this does involve risks. Now, I'm going to make a suggestion that one of the reasons why Budapest has been chosen for this meeting is that I strongly suspect that Orban has played a major role in arranging this call and in trying

to get the two of them to meet. So I suspect that Orban has also been calling and speaking to Trump as well over the last week, which is probably why the idea of having this meeting is, in Budapest was in trance mine and it's quite plausible that Orban has also been talking to the Russians. No I mean Budapest if you take out the geography of it is ideal is ideal if you take out the geography is the geography is problematic and the protocol the protocol should have been somewhere of Russia's choosing that that is usually how it goes but okay we'll put that aside other than that if you take out the geography I don't think we should put that aside It is a concession.

It is a concession. Well, if you stack it on top of Russia initiating the call, so go there. Russia initiates the call. Let's just assume, initiated by Putin and Putin concedes to the location. What does that tell you? Well, it tells you if it really was that way, except I didn't myself think it was exactly that way. But if it was that way, if Putin begged Trump for a meeting, which I didn't think was the case because again, I didn't say it.

I said initiated the call. Initiated the call. Which is according to Russian media, this is not me saying this. If Putin initiated the call, then to my mind what it suggests is that Putin is under a great ill of pressure to get to show that there's some signs that the whole Alaska process is moving forward in Russia itself and that he feels that. that he needs to speak to Trump urgently in order to get this thing back on track and to get Trump to understand some of the pressures that Putin himself is under and what the consequences

of supplying the Tomahawks to Ukraine would be, amongst other things. So that is what it would imply. But I do think it was as simple as that because I'm confident myself, as I said, that this call has been in the works for several days, and I suspect that there's been discussions by both sides working towards the school, and that Orban has played a role in it. As I said, the fact that it's happening in Budapest strongly suggests it. Why would they keep it under wraps then? Why would they make the call the day before the Zelensky meeting?

Why the, I mean, is this more Trump theatrics, more Trump showmen? to do this call out of the blue, or allegedly out of the blue, you're saying it was planned many days ahead of time. But is this Trump making a big deal of calling Putin the day before Zelensky because it brings a lot of attention to everything he's doing as the peacemaking president? I mean, you would imagine that the Russians would have hinted at a call taking place at a couple of days, or even the Trump administration was said, we have a call in the works a couple of days. But this came out of the blue. This really came out of the blue. No one had any idea about this. Five minutes before, you know, it was announced, no one knew that they were going to talk to each other. The worst suggestions from the American side about two weeks ago that there was going to be another call between Putin and Trump. The Russians said no, that this isn't in the works. And in fact, we've had words from Russian officials over the last week that there were no high-level contacts between the Russian.

and the Americans being planned, which is what makes me think that, as I said, the setting up of this call was rather more complicated than some people in the Russian media are suggesting. Lavrov himself actually gave in that interview, he said to Coma Sand that the Russians hadn't asked for a high-level meeting with the Americans, and it didn't seem like they were going to. So what I think has been going on, and, you know, again, we perhaps, can spend some time discussing the mechanics. But what I think this is, and I have to say this, this looks to me very much like, in a sense, what happened back in July. In July, Donald Trump was making threats to impose massive sanctions on Russia, tariffs against China and India,

enormous steps against the Russian oil and energy trade. He was drifting. into a position of confrontation with the Russians, then suddenly we have telephone conversations between Trump and Putin, meetings between, well, not telephone conference, we have Witkoff turning up in Moscow, conversations between Witkoff and Putin, agreements for summit meetings,

and a summit meeting in Alaska, which basically kills all the ideas of having, you know, having all of these enormous sanctions. And we haven't really heard very much about, you know, Lindsay Graham's big sanctions since then. It looks to me that we're going through the same process all over again. Trump drifting very close to a deadline that he has himself created. You remember, in August it was going to be the 8th of August,

he was going to impose all these enormous sanctions and tariffs and things, and he didn't do it. Now he's brought himself again up to the deadline, which is the meeting, which is taking place with Zelensky, in which Zelensky is going to ask for Tomahawks. And again, we see rapid footwork being done involving all kinds of people. On that occasion, on the previous occasion, I think it was Wickoff. On this occasion, I suspect it was all done, basically to get Trump out of trouble, if you like, and to find a way forward by arranging another meeting this time in Budapest.

So this is why I think this has happened, because this is very unconventional diplomacy, to put it mildly, it's quite clear that there isn't very much progress going on in the discussions between the Americans and the Russians. Alaska happened and then went completely off the rails. and there's an attempt again to get things back online because Trump has been drifting away from, you know, whatever momentum position in Alaska that he seemed to be going on. So it's essentially an attempt to get Alaska back on track and to get Trump out of this mess that he's getting himself into with the tomahawks. That's how it looks to me. How about an alternative viewpoint?

Or both can be true at the same time. Okay, so I agree with you on the Trump part. Yeah. But how about if this meeting, this phone call and this meeting that's coming up, actually saves Putin as well? Because he's in a way, he's boxed himself in with his soft, let's say his soft stance towards Trump and towards the United States. His lack of enforcing a deterrence against the United States, I guess is the best way to explain it, right?

And so you have this tomahawk talk and very, very aggressive rhetoric from the Trump administration, from the entire Collective West about the tomahawks. You have the reports, which clearly state that the U.S. military will be in Ukraine firing those tomahawks. No one's trying to keep this secret this time around and saying, oh, it's going to be Ukraine and stuff like that? No, the reports are saying, U.S. contractors will be in Ukraine and they will fire the tomahawks into Russia, right? So in a way, Putin is in a bit of a bind

because he understands that the minute the United States fires a tomahawk into Russian territory, he's going to have to respond. If he doesn't respond, then he's in trouble. right? He's going to have to respond to something like that. How he responds could be many ways. We've just, we've said many ways he could he could decide to to give weapons to other, to other allies or partners that have something going on with the, with the United States or the West. He could, he could impose restrictions of a certain kind. I mean, there's different

ways. It doesn't necessarily mean a tit for tat response. But, but he's going to have to respond to something like that, right? Okay, okay. Well, no, I just want to want to finish my point. So, so he's going to have to respond to something like that. But perhaps he understands that the other thing that it will do, the launching of Tomahawks by U.S. military into Russia, is that it's going to completely derail the reproshment that they've been working on. And Putin is very much invested in Trump. He's over-invested in negotiations with Trump. And so he, he, he, needs to figure out a solution to get out of this tomahawk mess, not because the missile scares him. Forget about the stupid narrative that you hear from the Western media from Zelensky and all

these idiots in Brussels. Oh, the Tomahawk is scaring Russia. That's nonsense. The Russians can knock down the tomahawks. But it's the fact that the tomahawk will be launched by the U.S. military into Russia that will force Putin to either respond to that, which will derail the negotiations with the U.S. It's over. There's no more negotiations to talk with the U.S. Or he doesn't respond and then he's in big trouble himself in his position is in big trouble. So he's kind of maneuvered himself in a box as well. So he also may be looking for for some sort of a way out. This is not in contradiction. No, no. I said both can be true. It's absolutely true. I mean, people are furious with Putin in Russia. I mean, you

We even had a senior Russian diplomat, Mirosnik, who actually said that, you know, there is a conflict going on. And it was quite obvious that he was talking about a conflict, an argument about this whole process, inside the Kremlin, inside the Russian political leadership. We've had the Russian foreign industry making absolutely clear that are complete disillusionment and disenchantment. with the whole process. We've had similar comments from Medvedev, what you'd expect from him, perhaps, but anyway, he has been saying. And we've seen repeated and aggressive challenges of Putin himself and other Russian officials from the Russian media. So, I mean, there's no doubt at all that Putin is very heavily invested. And from his point of view, the point about the Tomahawks,

I suspect even more, the second point you made, that if the Tomahawks are supplied to Ukraine, and they're not going to be supplied to Ukraine, because you see, you absolutely rightly say, it'll just be American contractors and American military people in Ukraine launching the Tomahawks. They will be located in Ukraine. If the Tomahawks go to Ukraine, then this entire process that he has invested so much in, his diplomacy with Trump, his entire meetings, his multiple meetings with Trump, all of that collapses. And he's going to be criticized. People will say in Russia, what was all that about? Why did you waste your time with him? We've told you all along that this is a completely pointless, you know, waste of time.

and so it has proved. And we go back again to Uschikov's readout because what Putin is trying to do over the course of this readout and what I think he urgently feels the need to do in a one-to-one meeting with Trump is to get Trump to understand what a momentous thing supplying the tomahawks

to Ukraine or rather basing the tomahawks in Ukraine would be. And the second thing, he obviously feels a very, very strong need to do is to get Trump to understand that it is not the Ukrainians who are winning, that all of these things that Zelensky and Kellogg on behalf of Zelensky have been telling him about the military situation are lies and that the reality is completely otherwise. And he's, and he's not. And he, He wants to do that because he wants to get the whole Alaska process back on track. So absolutely, I mean, Putin, as we've discussed in several programs now, in Russia, is under pressure. And this is one of the reasons why we have this meeting in Budapest.

Trump himself is under a certain degree of pressure because probably he hasn't understood exactly. what the Tom Hawks involve. I suspect that Orban has been trying to explain this to him and trying to make him understand that this is really a breaking issue for the Russians. And that's why we have this meeting in Budapest. And that's why, by the way, it's going to be very important that Orban is there. And Orban, I suspect, has been playing a massive role in the diplomacy. But it's high time that he came out. out of the shadows, and he's doing so this time. Do you think that the Tomahawks are going to give Trump the wrong idea?

It's going to teach Trump the wrong lesson in that he's going to think, you know what? The leverage that I have over Putin is that he is scared of these big, beautiful missiles. You know what I mean? Like Trump may, okay, Orban's trying to explain to him what this means. Tomahawks, what a huge escalation. Putin is telling him what a huge escalation. But Kellogg's going to tell him, you know what, President Trump, you see? Putin is scared of the tomahawks because the tomahawks are freaking amazing. They're the greatest weapon ever made by mankind.

And Putin, you see, Putin is scared of them. He's talking to you. He's going to travel to Budapest to meet with you. Obviously, he's been rattled by the tomahawks. And you do see this all throughout the West Mainstream media. And you get these statements from every single leader in the collective West, including Zelensky, which is, you see, you. put some pressure on Putin with the Tomahawks, and he got scared of the possibility that

Tomahawks may go to Ukraine, and now he's going to travel to Budapest in order to meet with you. So your pressure worked, which means you need to keep on pushing. Send us more weapons, send us more money. You think Trump is going to learn the wrong thing from this instance? Of course. I mean, that is after all exactly what happened after Alaska. And that is why Budapesthest is important, because, you know, remember what happened after Alaska. I mean, the Western governments, well, the European governments

absolutely horrified when they discovered that Putin and Trump were going to meet in Alaska. And then they launched a diplomatic counteroffensive, which was completely successful. It swept the board. I mean, they managed to get Trump to make commitments to provide Ukraine with security guarantees, which he had up to that point not made. They got Trump to agree to European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and even talk about providing them with some kind of backstop. They had that disastrous meeting with Trump in the Oval Office. They talked Trump into this whole business about trilateral meetings between himself

and Putin and Zelensky. and the whole process after Alaska went entirely wrong. And beyond a certain point, Trump started to listen to what Kellogg and others were telling him, and he had this terrible meeting with Kellogg and Waltz. And they said to Trump, look, it's actually the Ukrainians who are winning. We really need to keep up the pressure. It's a Russian propaganda that it's the Russians who are winning. And of course, the same people will come along and they will say, look, you see,

Putin comes and talks and it works. And the whole process after Alaska could repeat itself all over again. And absolutely, that risk is indeed there. And anybody who thinks otherwise, I'm afraid, hasn't been following Donald Trump and hasn't been listening carefully to what he's saying. And I think this is why in Budapest is important. The choice of Budapest is important. because, of course, what happened after Alaska is that Trump spoke to all of the wrong people.

He spoke to Macron, to Stama, to Ursula, to all of those people. He listened to Kellogg and he tends to do that, though. He tends to do that. No, he chose. He chose. He made a decision. Absolutely, he chose. Absolutely he chose to do it.

Firstly, perhaps in order to placate them, which was completely unnecessary, by the way, that was a stupid thing to do. And then in order to placate them, he started to agree with them. And then the whole thing went completely wrong. So this time, this time, he's going to get another European leader who's going to try to explain to him. Listen to what Putin is saying. to what you choose to do, don't listen to these others.

They are taking you down the wrong path. And that's one of the points about holding the meeting in Budapest, because the person who Trump is going to speak with, both before and after he has spoken to Putin, is going to be all ban, not Macron, Ursula, Marc Rutter. or any of those. They'll get to him eventually. Oh, they will. And this is where we come back.

This is where we come back to the fact that it is absolutely, you know, possible. Some would even say likely that after this attempt, this attempt to get things back on track in Budapest, this whole thing will go off the rails. I think Budapest is the last chance. If Budapest doesn't work, if Trump doesn't stick with. whatever process he and Putin have embarked on, which has to be Istanbul Plus at the end of the day. It cannot be anything else. Putin does not have the political goodwill in Moscow to bargain on Istanbul Plus. Unless Trump sticks without this time, then I think this thing

is really going to go completely off the rails. And it will be... The whole process will collapse. And Putin will not lose power. He will not cease to be the president of Russia. But he will know that at that point, continuing the connection with Trump is impossible because he will have been very, very severely damaged and embarrassed by it. Yeah, but Putin definitely failed. to enforce many red lines over the past four years,

which has really led us to this point. I know there's a lot of imaginary red lines, but there were quite a lot of real red lines, which he failed to enforce, which has led us to this Tomahawk incident and has brought us to this, let's say, strategy from the West or from, Trump to threaten Tomahawks into Russia because they probably have the belief, which they,

well, they definitely have the belief that Russia will do nothing. Actually, the Financial Times, it was interesting in the article where they talk about the American contractors in Ukraine firing the Tomahawks, the Financial Times actually says in the people interviewing the people on the Tomahawks, they actually said that Russia's response will most likely be just nuclear saber rattling. Yeah, that's pretty much it. So I think it indicates that in D.C., in the think tanks, in the deep state, in the White House, there's a majority of people and analysts who are telling Trump, don't worry about it. We've sent attack us. We've sent drones. We've sent high mars. And Putin has done nothing. So the tomahawks are going to be,

are going to be more of the same. He'll talk about nuclear stuff. Maybe he'll fire a missile or two here and there, but that'll be it. Yeah, the red line that Putin did not enforce, and as far as I'm aware, it's the only one, was when he absolutely clearly said back in the spring of 2024 that missile strikes inside pre-2014 Russia would be a red line. And then the missile strikes duly took place in a November 24, and he launched one Arrachnik missile, and it looked like he was going to do more, but he didn't do anything. And probably the reason he didn't do anything was because Donald Trump was saying that he was not going to take any action.

He was going to stop that whole process, that he vehemently disagreed with the missile strikes inside Russia. And it looked to Putin at that time that there might be a negotiation, a successful negotiation with Donald Trump and the attackers of the storm shadows were ineffective anyway. I think that was a very serious mistake. I think many people in Moscow are telling him this. And I think this is exactly where it has led to, exactly the point that it has led to, which is the one that you are saying.

And by the way, I strongly believe that that official, NATO official, who said that to the Financial Times was not American but British. And the British are also busy because it's a Financial Times newspaper. It's a British newspaper. And when they talk about NATO officials, they usually mean British officials. If it was a European official, they would say an EU official. And if it was an American official, they would say an American official. So I'm pretty sure it was a British official.

But the point is that the British are part of this advocacy, this lobbying group. which of course includes the people in the White House, it includes Kellogg, it includes probably all the people in the intelligence community, the entire blob in Washington, it includes everybody in Europe. So Putin didn't enforce his red line properly in November, as I said, single Erichnirnir, missile was impressive, but it didn't in the end make clear that this was a red line. and the result is that we've drifted to this position now. So Putin has to find some means of getting Trump to understand that this time it really is a red line. And that is going to be a lot more difficult because he didn't enforce it back in November.

And you're absolutely right, you know, with Trump, who is always someone who, you know, is looking for leverage all the time. because this is what this is all about. It's very, very dangerous to make slips like that. And I am sure that Putin in private has been criticized over this. The last 10 days have been very difficult for Putin in Moscow. Just a second. Again, to repeat, he's not under threat. There is no palace coup or anything like that being prepared.

But the Russian leadership is much more collegiate than people understand. He has to ensure always that they're all with him. And on this issue, over the last week, it's obvious to me that they have not been. Well, what you said is really interesting, where you said that Putin probably backed off on on establishing a strong deterrent with with the attack comes into into pre-2014 Russia under the assumption that Trump was going to work with Putin to come to some sort of an agreement, which once again highlights how Putin really does want to find a diplomatic solution and how he does have a tendency to overinvest in Western leaders.

We brought it up with Merkel a thousand times. We've talked about his overinvestment in Merkel. It highlights once again that he was at that time betting on a Trump presidency that would de-escalate and he over-invested in that belief. This is unquestionably true. Going back to the campaign period even, yeah. This is absolutely well. I mean, there are other people in Moscow who say, why are we wasting our time with diplomacy at all? Why are we wasting our time with presidents like Trump?

We'll say one thing one day, do something completely different than next. These people are obviously hostile to us. Let us focus instead, winning the wall. And once we won the war, then maybe we can talk to them, but we will do so from a position of overwhelming confidence and tremendous strength. And that current of opinion absolutely exists in Moscow, and it has become significantly stronger over the last few months since Anchorage. It was already there. I've already said, you know, when Putin came back from Anchorage and met the other leaders of the Russian, the other Russian leaders.

You know, I'm good at reading faces when you had to do the kind of work that I've had to do. You absolutely do learn to read people's faces. I can see that not only were they completely unconvinced. Some of them were frankly furious. They looked generally angry to me. So that current of opinion already existed, not just within wider Russian society, but within Russian leadership before Anchorage and the failure of Anchorage, which is what many

people in Russia are talking about, has made it stronger. Putin does have this tendency to seek. diplomatic solutions. Not only did he waste an enormous amount of time and his own personal prestige with Merkel, and you can see how bitter he feels about that. But many people in Russia say he wasted time with Obama as well, that the Russians wasted a huge amount of time with Obama, who said, who was straightforwardly duplicitous in he's dealing with them. And people will say, well, you know, you tell us that Trump is different.

He does indeed appear to come from a different political part of the American system. But ultimately, he's not going to make the difference that you seem to think he is, because whatever Trump wants, and it's never quite clear what he wants. Anyway, the fact is, the way that system works in, Washington means that America is hardwired to be hostile to us. Again, it's a point which we've made many times. And bears reiterating in Moscow, Putin is not a hardliner. He is a moderate. I imagine there's a lot of people in the Kremlin who are letting Putin know, look, you believed that Trump was, well, you believed in what Trump said, the campaign. You believed

in Trump's words as he was campaigning, that he was not going to allow long-range missiles into Russia. That's what he said. He said, I'm going to put a stop to long-range missiles into Russia. You believed that President Putin. And look, he's now talking about tomahawks into Russia, right? And once again, even the Financial Times made it a point to say that Biden was against Tomahawks and Trump is for Tomahawks.

Even the Financial Times. pointed out the difference between where Biden was not going to go and where Trump was willing to go. And so I imagine there are people telling Putin, look, you refused to set up a proper deterrence against the attack comes. You didn't enforce the red line because on the belief that this guy who was campaigning for president was going to put a stop to long-range missiles. And he became president. And now he's talking about longer-range missiles in Ukraine. fired by American personnel. Yeah.

The words Trump used in an interview he gave to Time magazine was that he was vehemently against missile strikes on Russia. Those were the words he used. But, I mean, people will say to Putin in Moscow, you know, you're treating Trump as if he was a mature political leader who, you know, consistently is consistent in what he wants, you act as if he's President Kennedy. He's really a spoiled child who throws tantrums when he isn't given what he wants and,

you know, breaks the furniture in the process. So that criticism does exist. And that's why we're having this meeting at Budapest, because Putin obviously feels embarrassed. He does need to speak. He wants to explain and get Trump to understand that he's actually Russia that's winning the war. He wants to get Trump to understand that the Tomahawks are indeed a deal breaker. And Trump is talking about all of these economic and financial and business deals. But Ushikov's readout doesn't say that Putin, you know, know, took the bait on any of that, that's not Putin's priority at this time. Maybe it will all happen. But in the first instance, they've got to get the process, the relationship, back on track.

Because if they don't, then as I said, the whole thing is over. And the Russians will just have to go on fight the war and negotiations, the policy that Putin has been following since Trump became president, in which, as you absolutely rightly say, he has invested a great deal, will have to be dropped because it will have been seen in Moscow to have failed. Well, it's going to be a huge task for Putin to convince Trump that the tomahawks are not only a deal breaker as far as negotiations between the United States and Russia. but that this time he will enforce the red line. Because once again, Trump is going to have all of the neocons

and all the Europeans whispering in his ear telling him, don't worry about it. Fire those tomahawks. Russia's not going to do anything. That's what they're going to be driving into Trump's head, 24 hours a day, seven days a week. And so Putin is going to have to somehow, maybe with the help of Rabon, I don't know,

he's going to have to make it clear that this time around we will enforce this red line. I don't know how he's going to do it because, as you rightly pointed out, if you don't do it the first time, it becomes very difficult the second time. Well, this is this is why Putin has agreed to Budapest. Because by himself, he probably realizes that whatever he says might not get. might not stick. He wants Orban there, Orban and Seattle,

who understand Russian thinking and probably are fairly well informed about the moods and feelings in Moscow and he wants to get them there to try to explain

all this to Trump as well. So it doesn't just come from Putin, but it comes also from somebody else who Trump takes seriously and who can correctly point out to Trump that Orban himself went on and out on a massive limb to try to get

in supporting Trump during Trump's election and in the years when Trump was out in the wilderness facing legal lawfare brought against him by the Biden administration. So this is why Putin has taken this risk and it is a real risk. There was no risk going to Alaska. There is a risk going to Budapest. I mean, I think it's a small one. I think anything's going. Let's talk about that.

But, you know, I mean, you know, he still has to find a way of getting there and get him back to Moscow. What about when he gets there? You're talking about a country that is located on the border with Ukraine. You've got to imagine that the SBU and Budanov and all these people are going to be plotting and planning a thousand ways to get at Putin. You've got to imagine that the three-letter agencies in the West, from the UK to the U.S. to Germany are going to be plotting and planning a way to get to Putin. You've got to imagine that there's going to be many leaders in the collective West and their governments who are going to be plotting and planning a way to get to Putin.

I mean, we're talking about treachery everywhere in the middle of Europe. I mean, this is a huge risk for Putin. Say he even gets there, say he finds the route and he gets there. He will find the right. Yeah, he will, I agree. But he finds the route and he gets there. Maybe he's going to need US escorts, fighter jet escorts over Greece. Well, he will.

I think... I don't know if I trust the Greek government. I don't know. I don't know. And I said he wouldn't trust the Bulgarian government on this. No, he's going to need, he's going to need certainly absolutely very strong guarantees of American protection. And he might very well need an American fighter jet escort to get there. And there will have to be saturated security in Budapest.

I suspect that the entire meetings will happen in a very, very few locations, probably in the Parliament building in Budapest, which we visited, if you remember, or maybe the castle, but more likely the Parliament building, with all the entrances secured and everything like that. On the river. On the river, exactly. in protections and protections, all kinds of systems of protection, it's going to be very, very tough. And this time, it has to be more than just a one and a half hour conversation between Putin and

Trump, which is what we got in Alaska. There has to be a much, much deeper discussion. And Putin will need, I think, it's not just security for him, because if this is going to work, he's going to have to bring military people with him as well this time, which he didn't do last time, people who will be able to explain to the Americans, look, this is the real military situation. We're about to split Pachrosk into. We are winning in Kupiansk. There is no situation, no possible way in which you can say that the situation in Ukraine is bogged down or in stalemate or that the Ukrainians are winning.

We are winning everywhere, and we're winning in the sky as well, and we're going to go on winning. And if you are stupid enough to provide the tomahawks to Ukraine, not only are we going to have to take countermeasures, but we're going to go on with the war. We're going to win. And there isn't anything you can do about that. You're out of patriots. You're out of pretty much everything else. the heat really should be on you, not really on us. So, you know, this is going to have to be a much, much more carefully structured summit

than the one in Alaska. And I notice at this time the Russians are saying that it needs two weeks of preparation. Alaska was grossly underprepared, which has led to all. kinds of problems since. This time it has to be much more thoroughly prepared. And when we talk about thorough preparation, the security is going to be a major, major part of it. Yeah. I wonder why Russia has not been able to explain how they are winning the war so decisively in Ukraine. They've really failed in getting that out there from information. standpoint. You know, Ukraine in the West, you know, they've been talking about Ukraine's victory now

for four years and every three months, Ukraine is winning. And it's a new wonder weapon. And it's going to be the wonder weapon. And for four years, a majority of the population, including most, if not all of the collective West leaders, have bought into to the Ukraine victory narrative, wonder weapon after wonder weapon, city falling in Ukraine after city falling in Ukraine and being captured by Russia. It hasn't affected their belief one bit. They're still convinced that Ukraine is winning and is going to win. That is the power of the media and of propaganda.

Russia on this instance has failed tremendously in getting out the message that they are demolishing. Not only one military, they've demolished three militaries, including NATO. including the NATO weapons, the mercenaries, the proxy, everything. They just have not done a good job in getting that out there. And Trump is under the belief. He said it just the other day, 1.5 million Russians. I mean, he's also internalized this. It's going to be extremely difficult to convince someone who's so brainwashed and propagandized, as is Trump,

that you know what? All the information you're getting from Fox News is wrong, man. It's going to be impossible for him to believe it because he's over-invested in Fox News. He's over-invested in Keith Kellogg. Absolutely. I'm not sure it can be done. I mean, we haven't discussed the fact that there is a very, very high prospect that Budapest is going to fail. I mean, this is, I think, if I was going to put money on it, I would probably say it will.

But what you are saying is something that everybody knows and which we've discussed in program after program, which is that the Russians suck at media management. They're hopeless at it. And Putin is particularly bad at it, if I could say. He gives these enormously interesting, fascinating press conferences and news conferences. They're fascinating to people like us. They are magnetically interesting to people in Russia. They are very, very closely followed in the global south and in China and places like that.

But in the media world of the West, they make no impression at all. They're just completely, they're so different that they just don't cut through at all. And when he had his chance with his interview with Tucker Carlson, he botched it. I mean, he gave a one-hour lecture on Ukrainian history and Russian history. And again, I mean, by long before questions, we got to the Q and the questions of the answers, by that point, most of the people will have switched off. I mean, this is something that Putin, who remember is, you know, a child of the Soviet Union. He doesn't get this at all.

And at a fundamental level, I think that, like, a lot of former Soviet officials, he just doesn't believe in it. He thinks that, you know, this isn't important. And in the end, that it's raw power, what happens on the battlefield, the fact that we're getting winning backroffs, that is what matters. And he doesn't understand that news management, media management, the reality is in its in the modern world matters a very great deal. Yeah, well, he's going to have to show that to Trump then and there in Budapest.

He's going to have to show Trump, take a look at what's happening in Bakrowski. Here it is. I'm showing it to you right now. And he's going to have to, just to end the video on this point, your thoughts, he's going to have to tell Trump, look, look, man, you're going to lose this war. And this is going to be on you. And I'm going to make sure that you're going to lose this war and it's going to be on you. I mean, he's got to really drive it home to Trump, the fear that this loss, this defeat is going

to be on him, because I think that's the only thing that is going to really scare Trump, the realization that, oh, crap, this Putin guy is serious. He is going to win this thing, and this is going to be pinned all on me. So I better accept whatever deals on the table. I better tell my puppets Zelensky to accept it, or I'm out. I mean, he's got to really drive the point home in language that Trump understands? Absolutely. It's also going to drive the point home in language that Trump understands that the Russian economy is not going to collapse tomorrow because that's the other narrative that Trump seems to have internalized.

It looked as if that was going to happen in Alaska. I remember all of these top officials were coming, Siluana of the finance minister. I thought they were all going to be there to explain to the Americans. This isn't working. These sanctions aren't going to work. They're not going to achieve what you think. There was insufficient numbers of military people going to Alaska. This time, I hope there will be somebody from the military, not Gerasim, but somebody from

the general staff this time, who will be able to explain all of these things and go through all the military details. And, well, we'll see. Now, I'm not convinced it's going to work, because I'm not. I'm not really convinced that Putin, even though he does have considerable persuasive skills, is going to be able to get through to Trump on all of this. But if we are again down to a 90-minute meeting, I don't think it's going to change very much. Probably, probably, I mean, for the moment, Trump seems to have cooled on the idea of the Tomahawks.

he's saying that the United States needs them and all of that. We have a lot, but we can't really afford to give any. So he doesn't seem to be. He seems to understand for the moment, probably more because Orban is explaining it than because of food in it, that the Tom Hawks, sending the Tomahawks to Ukraine might not be such a good idea after all. But I'm getting Trump to understand. that Ukraine is losing the war, that Russia's economy is strong, trying to win Trump

round to seeing these things against the constant chatter that goes into Trump's ear from Fox and from Kellogg, Trump's own intelligence people, and from the Europeans, and from Stam or Macro, and from Lindsay Graham and all of that, I think it's going to be very difficult. Which takes us back to the beginning of the video in your point, which is that if they can't do it this time around, then I imagine Putin's aides and Putin's advisors in the Kremlin are just going to tell them, look, man, you tried one final time, it didn't work, let's just win this thing.

Exactly. Yeah. Yeah, that's what we're going to probably end up. Yes. We'll see. We will see. We've got two weeks, so let's see. A lot can happen in two weeks with Trump.

We'll end it there. The durand.orgals.com. We're on X. We're on Telegram and we're on Rumble. And go to the Durant shop. Take care.