The Duran Podcast - Putin; Ukraine offensive is not stalled, it is a failure

Episode Date: September 6, 2023

Putin; Ukraine offensive is not stalled, it is a failure The Duran: Episode 1690

All right, Alexander, let's talk again about Putin's meeting with Erdogan, but let's focus in on a specific statement that Putin made, which is not connected to Turkey, not connected to the grain deal, not connected to bricks, but is connected to the Ukraine big counteroffensive. and Putin said that the counteroffensive is not stalled. I think it's a very interesting choice of words. He said it's not stalled, but it looks like it's failed. It looks like it's a failure. And then he followed that up with a statement, let's wait and see how it goes. I hope it continues as is.

I'm paraphrasing the second part. The first part, I think I got pretty much right that quote. And maybe I'll look for it as you're talking. But I think it's very interesting that he said it's not stalled because it shows to me that Putin understands the narrative that the collective West is trying to put on the big counter fence. If he understands the spin, it's a stalled offense if he understands that. And he said it's a failure. Shoyku said the same thing. Yes.

Yes. And Shoyko gave a little bit more, you know, in terms of the detail. He went to, but he was, it wasn't the most detail statement he's given about the. but he did go, he was a bit more granular. And he's now claimed, and, you know, these are Russian claims. So let's be, you know, this is from Shoyug. But he said that the Ukrainian casualty rates have now increased to 66,000. He's not saying dead.

He's not saying 66,000 dead. He's saying casualties. So that presumably includes wounded. Just to make that void clear. But anyway, but go back to Putin, because Putin is, of course, is the more interesting person. So the offensive has failed, but it's not stalled. In other words, it's continuing.

In other words, Ukraine can't stop this offensive. That's how I understood this to mean. So it will continue until, well, who knows? And that's essentially again what he's saying, because Ukraine, as of massive numbers of men, large numbers of machines. I think it was, you said, on one of your programmes of the BBC. has now also publishing material about the enormous extent of Ukraine's losses in this offensive. I mean, people, you know, in cemeteries and those sort of places.

This is on the BBC now. It's starting to appear. So huge Ukrainian losses, huge numbers of machines destroyed, no breakthroughs. Now, this is important again to stress, because once more I was reading today, this morning, in the Daily Telegraph, that Ukraine is about to break through the fire. line of defence that the Russians have. I mean, this is actually there today in the Daily Telegre. And of course, when you go into the article itself, the final Russian line of defence is this village of El Bavoye, which is clearly they haven't captured, but it's not the final line of defence. It's still absolutely, you know, the first line of defence and they haven't breached

it. But, you know, nonetheless, that's what they're saying. So they're talking about the fact that you know, Ukraine is pushing forward. But what Putin is, it seems to me saying, is it's failed, but the West won't let Ukraine stop. That was the implication that I came away with this. So they're going to have to keep hammering away, incurring more losses, losing more men, losing more machines. There's reports today that a challenger two has been filmed,

you know, burning on the steps. The photograph is very distinct and my vision problems can't make it make it impossible for me to identify. No, it is. It is. Forbes confirmed it. Forbes confirmed it. Well, Forbes confirmed it. Well, there you go.

So Challenger 2s now have also burning on the steps and we can see that they're not really making any progress at all, but they still have to go on. So it's not stalled, it's failing instead. And it also, by talking in, that way, by talking about failure rather than a stall, it starts to move the initiative back towards the Russians, because it means that from this moment on, it's not a stalemate

any law, stalemate anymore, it's a defeat. It's not that Ukraine has reached stalemate, is that Ukraine is being defeated, and that conceivably. I mean, you know, I'm reading things now into what Putin is saying and maybe I'm going beyond these exact words. But it could be a sign that now the Russians will start making their own moves. Yeah, let me read you the quote I found it here. Putin said that the Ukrainian operation is not stalled. It's a failure. And quote, at least this is how it looks today. Let's see what happens next. I hope this will continue to be the case. It's like, it's just like you said, It's almost like Putin is saying it's not stalled.

It's a failure all right. It hasn't stalled, but they're just going to keep on coming. Let's just see tomorrow and the day after what happens. And it's almost like he's not, it doesn't seem like he's so absorbed in the, in the Rappetina narrative as the West is absorbed in the Rappetina narrative. I mean, when you read his quote, it seems like he's, he has that, you get the sense that, Russia and the military, the Russian military, has everything under control, even if you create advances a kilometer or two kilometers or three kilometers, it doesn't seem like there's this

panic or this worry from Putin. No. No, I mean, it shows an incredible amount of Song Fois. He's just taking it. I mean, it has a teasing quality. I mean, essentially, I mean, he's teasing the West, he's teasing the Ukrainians, as he likes to do sometimes. He said, you know, you haven't stored, you failed. But, you know, if you want to carry on trying, it's up to you. Okay, so I saw the UK telegraph article as well. What is going on here? I mean, you know, Kirby said three, four days ago, Ukraine is getting to the second line of defense. Forbes said that Ukraine has broken through the first line and is moving towards the second line of defense. Now all of a sudden, two days, two, three days later, the telegraph is saying that they're at the final

defense line. When you read the article, you can tell that they're being very careful with their words. You know, they're saying a key Russian defense line. Nowhere in the article are they saying that Ukraine has breached the three main defensive lines that take you all the way to the sea of They're very, they're very gray about, about where these lines are located. They don't give, you know, they say Rappatina, but they don't say Rappetina's, you know, 60 miles, 60 kilometers away from Melita Pol. You know, they just, they just throw this stuff out there to mislead the reader into thinking that Ukraine has, has just pushed through all of the defensive lines of Russia. But, you know, this is, this is obvious deception, but it's, it's, it's also. So once again, you get back to to this major disconnect. Yeah. Well, what, what, what? Information, which says one thing and shows one thing.

And the telegraph and Kirby and Kirby is coming out with information, which, which just doesn't, it doesn't fit. Yeah. You're absolutely clear. I mean, what you're, what you're describing is deeply manipulative language. And notice that the article, again, refers to fighting around Rabotino, which, of course, the Ukrainians are. supposed to have captured and yet the fighting is still going on there. So, you know, if you actually go, if you actually unpick it, the detail to those who know contradicts the impression that it's trying to convey.

But of course, the vast majority of people who read that article in, you know, people who read the Daily Telegraph won't know that because, you know, they're not as invested in time and resources as we are, you know, looking whether they're a magnifying glass at every particular battle. They don't know where Verboi is. They don't know where the Robotoino is. They don't follow this in the kind of detail that we are. But the impression that he's giving, that it's seeking to give, is that there's some kind of big Ukrainian breakthrough, that the final line has been reached. And of course, what is the final line is being constantly, or what is any line of defence, is being constantly adjusted.

to suit whatever particular narrative you're trying to discuss. So the article says that they're breaching the final line of Russian defence. Then it turns out when you go through the article, it's a line of Russian defence. And when you actually are able to compare that with the maps and the facts on the ground, which, as I said, if you followed the war carefully, as we have, you would know.

Well, the line of defense that's been talked about is the one that Ukraine has been bashing his head against ever since the offensive began in June. So that's essentially where we are. I mean, you know, they're not really progressed at all since June. But the article wants to convey a completely different impression. When people use manipulative language, you need to be very careful about what they're about. because they're trying to persuade you of something that isn't factually true. Is Verbovet the final line of defense? No.

In the Serovican line? No. I mean, you know, it's right, the Sudoviki law. Here's a line from the article, Alexander, one sentence. Kier's forces had reached fighting positions near Verbovet in southern Zaporos, said George Barros, a Russian analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. So the Verbo-Vovoje. Now, I've had problems understanding this because there's so many different maps.

My understanding is that Verbo-Vo-Vo-Ye, which is this village, is almost there just behind the Surovician line. So they've reached an area very close to the Surovician line, and they've actually reached, apparently Verbo-Vo-Vo-Vo-voye, it's in sight of where they are. They haven't reached the Sur-Oviki line. line. And what we're talking about is not just the first line of defense of the Suravikin line, but some of the early, some of the barriers somewhat

to the west and north of it. So they haven't breached the Suravikin line. They've approached it, which, by the way, they've been doing now for several, about two weeks in this particular area, not elsewhere. And there's at least

Yes. And there's at least two big further lines behind, which of course they're nowhere close to. And, you know, those are kilometers behind them in the rear. You know, it's really frustrating reading these articles. You have to, you have to read them like 10 times to try and figure out what the truth is because they're very, very manipulative and careful with the words they use. For example, the first sentence is, as you said, Ukrainian troops have reached. the third and final layer of a key Russian line of defense. According to Arnold's, I mean, you have to really think about that sentence. They've reached the final layer of a key Russian line of defense. And then they say about Verdova, that Verdova is, the settlement, is a nodal point in the so-called Cerrovican line, the main line of Russian defenses in the area. I mean, you really, you know, you just can't read one of these articles one time. and get to the truth.

No. You have to read it over and over again and pick apart every single word. Yes. To try and get to some truth. Yes. But you see, when they do that, let me repeat again,

when people do this sort of thing, it's because they're having to conceal something. And what they're concealing is the fact that Ukraine is stuck. I mean, that's really what it amounts to. If there had been a real breakthrough, you wouldn't need manipulative language. You'd be able to say it straightforwardly.

Yeah. Okay, so what is the situation? Let's just get to how we see it, how you see it. What does it look like right now? Well, as of this morning, and, you know, as Putin said, this is always a dynamic situation, but as of this morning, it looks to me as if the Ukrainians have still failed to make any real progress. at all. Rabotino remains contested. They're still Russian troops, either just outside it or in the southern areas, and the Ukrainians have not been able to consolidate control of Rabotino. They've

been sending light infantry, and apparently it is only infantry towards Verbovoje, and this particular defensive belt that we've been talking about near Verbovoje, but they haven't breached it. They certainly haven't managed to capture Verbovoje itself. So, they're still in effect stuck and you know the great defensive barriers the greater part of them is still well away from where they are they haven't in fact made any significant progress at all that that is my own understanding and reading of the situation and elsewhere it's the same it's the same i'm glad you i'm glad you brought up that brachm because as i've been explaining in my own on my own channel if you look at getting you know this is for this is in

from the Russians. So, you know, you can argue with it if you wish. But the Russians have been providing what they say are casualty figures for the losses that the Ukrainians have been suffering. You don't have to accept the numbers, but they do perhaps reflect the intensity of the fighting. And if you read Russian accounts, the most intense fighting by far continues to, to be in and around Bahmoud.

That's where the real big battles are happening and where the largest number of people wounded and killed are to be found. And again, despite the fact that there are no great defensive lines in and around Bahmoud because

the Russians had no time to build them, it looks as if the Ukrainians are stuck there as well. They've not managed to capture this village of Klocheyevka, which they've been trying to capture since the beginning of May. They're still stuck outside it, sometimes they are advanced towards it, sometimes they're able to capture a few outline buildings, but they're always pushed back in the end. And there's no progress

there at all. And further north, around Kupiansk and the Oswald River, the Russians continue to make progress, and Shoyko was talking about that in these comments he made yesterday. Okay, let's talk about two more stories real quickly. I want to get your thoughts on the missile strike close to the Romanian border because it looks like the, it doesn't look like, the, the, the, Ledski government, they tried to pull another, like, Polish farmland missile incident. Remember that one where the missile landed in Poland in some farmland? And Zelensky tried to, tried to get NATO involved by saying this was Russia hitting at Poland,

and it was later proven that this was not the case. Thank God to social media, because. photos started to emerge of the actual missile and that disproved Elensky's claims. We had kind of the same incident happening close to the border of Romania, but this time we have the Romanian government itself coming out and saying, no, we weren't hit by Russian missiles. There was never a threat. This is just false what the Ukraine government is saying. So I want to get your thoughts on that.

And then close out the video by giving your thoughts on the new Minister of Defense, Mr. The BBC, they have an article on him, a profile on Mr. Umerov, who is Ukraine's next defense minister. And both the BBC and the NBC, outside of the profile that they give about this guy, the part that really struck me, and he is a pretty, pretty weird dude, by the way, there's some pretty weird stuff about him floating around. But whatever, the interesting part about I think the articles that are coming out about Omettov is how they're explaining Reznikov's dismissal. And they're doing their very best to say that Reznikov was not dismissed because of the counteroffensive. He was dismissed because of corruption.

This is Zelensky's way of cracking down on corruption. In other words, Reznikov was deeply corrupt, and so Zelensky removed him. But it has nothing to do with the progress of the counteroffensive. I think that's pretty interesting how they're scapegoating Reznikov and how they're positioning Reznikov's dismissal. Anyway, your thoughts on Romania, the missile strike, and then let's just talk a bit about Umerov. Right, well, first of all, I mean, the missile strike is important in itself, because it shows that the Russians are still going after Ukraine's, you know, black sea ports, and they are still acting to basically close down those ports to make, more shipping from those ports, all but impossible. And I've been hearing some reports from ship owners,

which basically say that increasingly people are very, very wary about sending their ships into this area. And it's completely unsurprising. The key thing, the more important story about this is exactly the one that you said, that the Ukrainians have tried to involve the Romanians in this affair. They've just said that this missile fell, well, they were trying to imply that this was somehow an attack on Romania. And the Romanians not only denied that, and they said that there was no danger to Romania at all.

I got the strong impression that they were actually very annoyed by what the Ukrainians were trying to do. And by the way, this tracks a very strange and unexplained spat between Estonia and Ukraine following the attack on that air base near Pskof. Skof, as we know, it's much closer to Estonia than it is to Ukraine. There were some rumours that the attack was launched from Estonia. Estonian officials came out and said that the attack on Skof was absolutely senseless. It made no sense. It achieved nothing.

And again, I get the sense that just as the Romanians are very nervous, despite the enormous amount of support that they've been giving to Ukraine, they don't want to be drawn into the war. The Estonians have been even more supportive of Ukraine. They don't want to be drawn into the war either. Now, given these very strong statements from Estonia and from Romania, that means that suggests to me that any ideas that might have existed a few months ago of creating a coalition of the willing, bringing troops into Ukraine from the Baltic states and from Russia,

from Romania and other countries, that they're gradually seeping away. People in these countries, in Estonia, in Romania, are now seeing what's actually happening on the battlefields, and they say we don't want to be involved in all of this. This is turning into a debacle, and we don't want to be drawn into it. we don't want to see our own people killed and we want to keep the war as far away from us as possible. So I think that is important in that respect. And it also shows that Kiev's attempts to involve these other countries in some way is either by talking up this attack on the Black Sea port or by launching attacks on air bases, Russian air bases

close to Estonia. None of this is the people in these countries, Romania and Estonia, are very angered about it. They don't look with favor upon Ukrainian

attempts to involve them in that way. Now, very interesting about Resnikov, and I think this is an important story, because Reznikov has been a big figure. I mean, he's been the person who's been going around the various Western countries, getting them to provide the tanks and the armoured vehicles, whatever else he's been. He's been a very, very effective, shall we say, voice.

You almost call him a salesman, except of course he's not selling anything. He's, you know, you're not even buying anything because he's getting most of these weapons from free as far as I understand. But he's been going around all these Western countries telling them, give us tanks, give us missiles, give us aircraft, give us helicopters, give us everything you have, and the West up to now has been giving them. And he's also had all of these connections with all of these Western ministries, all these defence ministries.

We've just seen that Ben Wallace, who's the British Defence Minister, has also been basically sacked. Wallace and Reznikov supposedly got on extremely well, and now they're both gone. And I can't help but think that the reason, he's gone. The real reason he's going is because a lot of people in Europe

and perhaps even in the United States feel very, very angry that Reznikov, and by the way, Zolluzni, sold them a pup. They said, you know, give us the tanks, give us these machines, we'll launch this offensive. The offensive will be this

spectacular success. And of course it hasn't been. And there's all these embarrassing pictures of lepertus and Bradley's and now Challenger 2s burning on the Ukrainian steps or the southern steps and that's made the West very, very angry. And they're very angry with Reznikov and I suspect they're probably angry with Zaluzni also. So they wanted Reznikov out and he's out.

They also probably were unhappy with some of the tactics that the Ukrainians have been adopting. the Ukrainians have been attacking in many places. Reznikov has seemed to be supportive of all of this. There's been the fighting in Bahmach, he's been supportive of the battle in Bahmert. The West wants Ukraine to concentrate everything that it's got left now on breaking through in Zaporosia region towards Crimea. So what do they do? They look around for the one official in the Ukrainian government who is from

Crimea. He's a Crimean Tata, Mr. Ummerov. He's a complete civilian. He's got no background in military affairs. He has no contacts, historic contracts with the Ukrainian army, but he is from Crimea. He's a Crimea tartar, so presumably, as far as the West is concerned, he will want to advance on Crimea so he can return to his homeland. That's presumably the calculation there. As you said, he's a complicated man. with an interesting background, but, you know, that's less important. And the fact that he's got no military experience or background at all,

well, that's not really a problem. You just want him to focus on Crimea. And you talk about corruption. Well, of course, Reznikov, you accuse him of corruption, probably. It's true. He probably has been. corrupt in some ways. If you went after every Ukrainian official who was corrupt, you wouldn't

find, you wouldn't be left with any Ukrainian officials at all. Ummerov is head of Ukraine's property fund. I'm not talking about. I'm not making any allegations now, but the possibilities of corruption there must be many times greater, one would assume. But anyway, that apparently doesn't apply to him. So that's, that's, that's the story. about corruption. You don't want to talk about the failed offensive because as we discussed earlier in this program, well, as far as the West is concerned, you know, the offensive is an amazing success. After all, Kirby is telling us so. And so is the Daily Telegraph in that rather complicated article we were discussing. Yeah. All right. Let's leave it there.

Real quick, your thoughts on the resurfacing, a kind of resurfacing. I don't know. Sudoviken. Yeah, that is in it. No, I don't think it's a photo because apparently, I mean, first of all, he's in Sochi. It's a photo that was taken in Sochi. And of course, Putin himself is currently in Sochi, where he's been meeting with Erdogan. Now, that might just be coincidence.

But the fact that this photo has appeared, that official Russian news agencies are circulating, it shows Sir Ravikin with his wife and he's in civilian clothes and he's clearly on leave some kind but it clearly is intended to show that he's not under house arrest for anything of that kind at least not now and to remind us of the fact that he is there now again I want to stress I mean my impression is that Suravikin is an extremely capable military commander and he created this defense system, which has been so effective. He took the correct decision in Herson region.

He's also forceful and dynamic personality. He gave one interview that, you know, showed him, suggested that. That's the general consensus. I don't know anything at all about Suravikin. I'm not able to judge his military competencies. But the Russian public thinks that he is, a brilliant general. And now he's resurfacing, just as there is talk,

that Russia might be thinking of an offensive of its own. So it seems to me a way of communicating to the general Russian population. No, Sir Ravikin is not in any trouble. He's on his way back. He's resting at the moment in Sochi. He's not in disgrace or anything like that. And we could be seeing him back on the battlefields before very long. I thought the photo was in Moscow.

Was it in Sochi? Apparently it is in Sochi. Yeah, I'm not sure. But apparently it is in Sochi. It doesn't matter. No, I agree. Yeah. The point is that there, he's, he's back.

He's back. That's what the photo's meant to say. Exactly. The convert, exactly. All right. Yeah. Okay. We will leave it there at the durand.

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