The Duran Podcast - PUTIN; U.S. must address root causes

Episode Date: March 14, 2025

PUTIN; U.S. must address root causes

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Putin's statement yesterday on the 30-day ceasefire plan. What were your thoughts on what Putin said? How did you see the whole event? What's your opinion on how we got to the point where Putin was asked the question by the reporter about the 30-day ceasefire? The trip to Kursk the day before, the fact that Whitkoff was coming in on the same. same day. The fact that Lukashenko was sitting next to him, not many people are reporting this. Actually, I don't think anyone is mentioning this, but I don't think it was a coincidence that he had a meeting with Lukashenko. He called up Lukashenko. Let's have a bilateral

meeting right before a press conference, perhaps to present the signal, to send out the signal. Here's Lukashenko. Here's Belarus. Here's Minsk. Minsk, Minsk agreements. He's sitting next to me. There is going to be no Minsk. I was incursed the other day. I've seen things from the front line. I know what the situation is like. So we talked about that as well. What was your impression about the entire picture of the event and of the diplomacy that happened yesterday?

Absolutely. Can I just say, by the way, that we've now got reports that he met Wakeoff late last night. Now, that can't have been a long conversation, despite what one must assume. because, I mean, Putin has had packed days, a pack day, and he was obviously in Cusk the day before. So, I mean, there wouldn't have been the time for a lengthy discussion with Wikov. And I'm assuming that he basically said to Wittkov much the same things that he said over the course of that news conference. Now, the thing about that news conference, the big takeaway I get from this is that Putin is not a talking on this whole ceasefire idea. In fact, to say that he's not keen would be an understatement.

He doesn't believe in it. I mean, he sees that the Russian army is advancing. They've just scored their biggest single military victory in Kusk region. And it's important not to understate the extent of that victory. I mean, it is the biggest battle. And it ended in a total victory by the Russians, a complete disaster for the Ukrainians. there's signs that the Ukrainians themselves are in terrible disarray and that they're just holding things together and we saw how quickly the front unraveled in Kusk and that one mustn't make

the same assumptions about the rest of the battlefront. Possibly the Ukrainian army in other places is also in a very chaotic condition. So he sees that. He knows all about the previous history and you're absolutely right. He had Lukashenko there talking about about the fact that, you know, bringing back our attention to the fact that there were all these negotiations before. The other great advantage of having Lukashenko is that Lukashenka can talk forthrightly

about all of these things in ways that Putin himself still doesn't feel that he can. He also reeled out Lavrov. Now, this is a thing that people are just, haven't noticed. But at the same time as Putin was speaking, he also got Lavrov to give a statement to a media question and the Russian foreign ministry published that specific answer from Lavrov as well. And that's an important response. But what Putin does, he doesn't want to ceasefire. He really doesn't see that there's any gain for Russia in a ceasefire before. He's already

ruled out in the past temporary ceasefires. He says that the only purpose of temporary ceasefires at this point in the war when the Russians are advancing and the Ukrainians are retreating in disarray and chaos is to give the Ukrainians an opportunity to re-equit, rearm, restabilize their front lines, get themselves in a better position. The Lavrov statement and what Lukashenko said exactly this, that the Ukrainians, whenever they've been given a ceasefire, have always used them in exactly that way, going all the way back to the original 2014 crisis, that breached every ceasefire that they have been given. And there's no reason to think that left to themselves, they won't do the same again. So what Putin said over the course of his press

conference is this. I don't want to quarrel with Donald Trump. I want to be on good terms with the United States. I understand that I have a president finally who wants to be on good terms with me and who's trying to achieve some kind of process of normalization in relations between my country, Russia and the United States. And of course, I welcome that because I am concerned about Russian national interests, and it is not in Russia's interests to have a major confrontation with the United States at any time, and though in the future relations with the United States might turn bad again. Whilst I have a president who's keen to cooperate, I will try and use that to the best extent that I can to try to lock in some things that might be to Russia's

in the future. So I don't want to simply slam the door on Donald Trump. Donald Trump's come up with this 30-day truce idea. It's clearly an American proposal. So Putin points out that in order for the to be a ceasefire, it must logically lead to peace. That peace has to, as the Russians say address the root causes of the conflict? When the Russians use the expression, root causes of the conflict, what they're talking about is Istanbul Plus. It's now become the code term that the Russians have latched onto in order to explain and justify and summarize Istanbul Plus in their own words. Remember, Istanbul Plus is our expression. The Russians have never used it. So they're talking about

root causes of the conflict. And so the ceasefire must lead eventually to that outcome. In order for it to lead to that outcome, if there is going to be a ceasefire, it must be a real ceasefire, one that the Ukrainians observed this time. And in order for that to be observed, a whole list of things need to be done, which this demand for an immediate ceasefire, does not address. And he talked about all of the things that were listed over the course of his comments, the fact that it needs to be monitored and who's going to monitor it, the fact that we've got to decide where the Ukrainian army is, that Ukrainian troops who are already surrounded in Kusk region and in other places, what is going to become of them? The fact that arms

supplies to Ukraine must stop, the fact that mobilization by Ukraine must stop, because because otherwise what is the point of this? And basically he said it all out. And basically, he's saying to Donald Trump, look, we understand where you're going. We understand what you're trying to do. We're not unsympathetic. We would like to go there ourselves.

But we've been there. We've done that. We've seen that it doesn't work unless there are stringent conditions attached to it. And if you want to talk to us about how to come to those stringent conditions, well, here we are. we will discuss them. But in the meantime, your proposal simply cannot fly. Putin effectively said that.

Uschukov, he's aide, who is the man who apparently has been speaking to Mike Wals, said that too. And Lavrov effectively has said that in his statement also. So what we understand is now going to happen. Putin met with Witt Goff. He will have told Witt Goff the same things that he said. over the course of his press conference, Witt Goff is not going to go back to Washington. He's going to speak and brief Trump about what Putin said. Presumably, and this is what Putin's spokesman Peskov is talking about today, there will be another telephone call soon between Trump and Putin. And that might not be as easy and friendlier call as the one we had before. But I think, think that the Russians read this, read the situation very much as Donald Trump, being urgent

about getting some kind of negotiation process underway, wanting to end the war as quickly as possible because he's got so many other problems piling up. And the Russians also, by the way, probably sensing that one of the reasons why Trump is so keen on a ceasefire is he wants a summit meeting with Putin and he feels he needs a ceasefire in order to let that happen. Yeah. I want to, I agree with you there. I think Trump feels like he needs something to tell the American people, look, this is what I achieved. I promised an end to the hostilities. I got an end and now I can meet with Putin. So he's not going to get all kinds of criticism from the media, from the neocons, or the Democrats, or at least he'll get less criticism.

from them if you were to have a summit with Putin without having that ceasefire in his pocket. But before we get to Trump, because I do want to talk a bit about Trump's reaction, to his initial reaction to what Putin said, I just want to ask you some quick questions about what Putin said in his statement. And the first thing that I want to ask you is, what do you think about his thanking BRICS? He thanked Trump. Yeah. That was the first thing he said.

But then he also talked about BRICS. He said, you know, I also want to say that Bricks is also involved in trying to find a way out of this. He didn't say Bricks. He just mentioned all the countries in Bricks. China, Brazil, India, South Africa. What do you make of that statement? And today, by the way, he also had a telephone call with Mohammed bin Salman, with MBS. With MBS, yeah.

And thanked him and they discussed oil issues and all of those things. Now, what I think that Putin wants to do is, first of all, he wants to make it very clear that it's not just Trump who is trying to achieve some kind of peace agreement, that, you know, the other big states are also there. China and Brazil have their own friends of peace group. So Putin has to take that into account. He's got to keep all his friends happy. He doesn't want to. to give the impression to his friends that, you know, he's only talking peace because the Americans are asking him to. He wants to make it clear to them that he also recognises that they are, you know, also valued partners in this process. But of course, the major signal is to Trump, because Trump is trying to isolate Russia, or at least there's been some talk of that. And there's been talk of America escalating the economic war against Russia, imposing restrictions on oil exports.

They did a little bit of that yesterday, by the way. And what Putin is ever so gently telling Trump is, look, we have friends and our friends are going to stand by us. Don't think they're going away because they're not. And if you do our thinking of starting launching this great economic war against us. Well, you're going to find that we're not going to be isolated. Our friends are not going to abandon us in the way that you might think they are. It will only backfire on you. And by the way, it seems that a large part of the conversation with MBS this morning was all about that as well. They were talking again about OPEC Plus, perhaps taking steps to keep the oil supply situation in the world stable.

all of those kind of things. So that was what Putin was doing, reassuring his friends that they're not forgotten and reminding Trump that he has friends. Yeah, not extending that waiver, what you're talking about, those sanctions that Biden put in place a 60-day waiver for Russian banks,

mainly for energy and for oil, and it just didn't get extended. I don't think Russia's going to worry too much about that. No, no. It was, I think, an attempt by the Americans to show that they could still go further. I don't think the Russians see that all is bluff, actually. Yeah, I agree with you there. The fact that Putin went to Kursk the day before, how important was him actually being in Kersk

in relation to the statement that he made? Because after he thanked Trump, after he thanked Bricks, he started off his response. with his presence in Kursk. And then he broadened it out to the front line. So you can say that he went to Kersk, he summarized the situation in Kursk, and then he extended it to the front line and then connected it to the 30-day ceasefire and basically explained why a 30-day ceasefire would not work. So what are your thoughts there?

Well, he didn't just go to Kursk, but as pretty much the entire Russian Internet is commenting about. He went to Cusk, dressed in military uniform. I mean, you know, this isn't, this is very unusual for Putin. I mean, he nearly always, in fact, I mean, he always goes in civilian dress. Some dramas, he puts a camouflage stock, smock, sorry, above his civilian clothes when he goes to meet frontline troops. But it's, it's very unusual for him to dress up from top to toe as a soldier. And what he was doing, what he was signaling again to the Americans, but also to the Russian people, is that his resolve remains unwavering. I mean, he is going to see this through. He's saying that to the soldiers. He's saying to the soldiers, I am with you. Obviously, I massively

appreciate what you're doing. But, you know, I'm, I'm your commander in chief and I'm fully with you in what I'm doing. And he's telling the Russian people, um, I'm not wavering in what I'm prepared to do also. And of course, he's communicating the same thing to the Americans as well. Now, I am not able to say this myself, but a number of people, you know, Russian speakers are saying that there was a slight element of mockery in some of the language that Putin was using over the course of that press conference. I mean, when he was outlining all these plans

and particularly all these conditions, and particularly when he was talking about nuances, apparently that is very, he was using very idiomatic Russian. Russian is a very complex language, by the way, just people to know, very sophisticated. You need to be sometimes a Russian speaker steeped in Russian popular culture to understand all the innuendos that take place.

But he was basically saying to me, you know, we got all of these things to do. You really, are you kidding? Do you really think we can get a ceasefire working here? I mean, that was apparently the tone of a lot of what he was saying. And again, I don't know that the Americans will have understood that, but it's something that's communicated to the Russian people. So, who I remember, he's electoral base.

He's got to think about them. and about what they think about this. But of course, dressing up in uniform, going to Kusk, talking about all of this at length in the press conference, the military situation, is again appointed to remind her to the Americans

about who is actually winning the war. The Russians are. It's Putin who has the initiative here, Not the United States, because ultimately this is an armed conflict. And as even Trump has admitted in the past, it's the Russians who have the strong cards. Yeah. Then he said across the entire front line as well. Across the entire front line.

Exactly. Why should we stop? Why should we stop? If we stop, how's it going to all work? Well, exactly. How is it going to all work? And the other thing is that if we go back to other points, he said is, I can entirely understand why the Ukrainians might want to ceasefire.

The Ukrainians should have been the people who asked for a ceasefire and not the Americans who insisted on it, but, you know, really doesn't work for us in at all the same way. I mean, we're not saying we are going to reject this outright because, you know, we understand that Trump wants this and we want to. to work with him. But really, this isn't something we would be proposing ourselves. It's not the kind of thing we would be interested in doing this time. And as I said, I mean, he's basically saying in those comments that he made that he thinks the ceasefire is unworkable. So he said at the end of his statement that perhaps it's time for him to call Trump.

He said, maybe I'll give Trump a call. That's what he said. But he's going to speak. The Russian government, Putin, they need to speak with their American partners. He used that word, the American partners. Yes. Not Ukraine. No. Not EU. Not the UK.

Obviously, for Russia, this is an issue between Russia and the United States. This is a proxy war, a conflict between Russia and the United States. And it has to be resolved between Russia and the United States. Yes. So do you want to comment on that? And then I'll ask you about Whitkoff or you want me to ask you about it? to Wickoff and Trump's reaction. No, let's just deal with the first point that you just said and then come to Wickop.

American partners. We absolutely need to, because this stems, in my opinion, from what happened at that meeting in Jeddah. Now, the Americans, as we've discussed already, isolated the Ukrainians by bringing them to Jeddah. They didn't meet them in Europe, where the Europeans would be hanging around. They didn't meet them in the United States, where the Democrats and the Democrats and the, the deep state people would be hanging around. They brought them to Jeddah where they could rely on MBS to keep these people under control. They made absolutely sure that Zelensky was not part of the meeting.

The meeting lasted eight and a half hours. As we know, the Americans stopped intelligence sharing and military supplies during the meeting. They were clearly putting the Ukrainians. through something of a third degree. And they came out with a statement, a joint statement, in which, obviously there was the thing about the ceasefire, which you've already talked about. But there were a lot of other things there.

Firstly, the statement makes no criticism of Russia at all. It doesn't criticise Russia. It talks about the courage of the Ukrainian people, but it does so by making it. clear that that courage is intended to lead to a pathway to peace. It makes no reference to sovereignty, Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, territorial integrity, or any of those things. It's all focused on achieving peace. And, and this is the key thing, it talks about the United States and Ukraine setting up negotiating teams. Now, you can understand why Ukraine

will want to set up a negotiating team because, of course, they are the people who are involved in the conflict with Russia, at least the direct conflict with Russia. But the United States is going to set up a negotiating team as well. And that means that there's going to be direct negotiations between Russia and America. And that is what the Russians want, because they see this ultimately as a conflict not between Ukraine and themselves, but between America and the collective West and themselves. They understand fully that America is the major party here. And so the result is that since the Americans want to negotiate in our setting up a negotiating team, the Russians are going to work with the Americans.

And the Americans, their job will be to keep the Ukrainians in line. Now, that is going to be very difficult to do, because as soon as the Ukrainians returned to Kiev, they started to walk everything that they said in Jeddah back. So they're again talking about NATO membership. They're again talking about security guarantees. They're again talking about mobilisation and keeping an army as big as they want.

and things of that kind, all the things that were stripped out of the Jeddah statement. And the Jeddah statement says something else, and it's very important. It says, and this must have been a massive issue between the Americans and the Ukrainians in Jeddah, because there's a sentence in it, which is that the Ukrainians want the Europeans to participate. And the statement, the sentence doesn't say that the Americans do. So the Americans want to cut the Europeans out. The Russians will be absolutely happy with that. The Ukrainians, of course, are again trying to get bringing the Europeans in. So it's going to be very tough for the Americans to keep the Ukrainians in line. The Russians will be very worried

that the Americans will not be able to keep the Ukrainians in line, that the Ukrainians with the Europeans are going to try and pull the Americans back onto their side. And that statement that was released by Lavrov yesterday, as I said, in coordination with Putin, actually says this. It has this extraordinarily interesting statement. It says, if the Europeans, and this is, I'm quoting it, if the Europeans now want to make the Ukrainians out with the Americans as well, I think that the Trump administration is fully aware of their intentions and we'll see through this. In other words, that the Europeans and the Ukrainians have their own agenda completely at odds without the United States.

The Ukrainians are going to be there in the room. They're going to be sabotaging the negotiations in every way that they can. The Americans are going to have a massive job trying to keep them and their European allies under control. But basically, the way it's going to be set up, the way the Americans are setting it out, and the way the Russians wanted it, wanted to be set up, is as a direct negotiation between the Americans and the Russians, like what happened eventually in terms of ending the conflict in Vietnam. Right. So, Witkoff met with Putin in the evening. We don't have any details as to what happened there. But Trump was asked about the statement from Putin. Trump was in the Oval Office meeting with NATO CEO, Markerute.

And he said that he was very positive to what Putin said. And Trump also indicated that he would also like to meet with Putin and talk with Putin. Trump also said something interesting, which is that on the U.S. side of things, they're speaking with Ukraine on the subject of territory. Now, they could obviously be speaking about Ukraine telling the United States that they will never accept the territory that Russia currently holds and the U.S. may be trying to convince them to accept it. But they could also be talking about Istanbul Plus, trying to get Ukraine to just accept

the fact that Istanbul Plus is going to be the terms. Those are going to be the terms. And that means that you're going to have to have to make some very difficult concessions, which is that you're going to have to vacate all of the four-oblasts, which Russia considers to be part of the Russian Federation. So when Trump says they're talking about territory, it could mean the existing territory, but it could also mean the four-o-blasts in their entirety in accordance with Istanbul Plus. So my question to you is that we got a,

ceasefire. Everyone has accepted a ceasefire, even though Ukraine is walking many things back. Finally, they've accepted a ceasefire. The Europeans have accepted a ceasefire. The UK has accepted a ceasefire. Russia says, we're not so hot in the ceasefire, but it doesn't matter. At least the collective West has finally got into the position of a ceasefire. Do you sense that Russia is trying to carry the or to help along the Trump administration. to Istanbul Plus. The Trump administration now is trying to move Ukraine, even though it's kicking and screaming to Istanbul plus as well. Is this how you see this motion unfolding? Or perhaps it's not going to, it's not moving in that direction at all. It's going to be very, very

difficult to get there. But I think the Americans, I think the Trump people do understand that for the Russians, the destination has to be. Istanbul plus. They know Istanbul Plus, right? The Americans know. Of course, there's no doubt they know. There's no doubt about it. I mean, there's absolutely no doubt about it.

But I mean, when, as I said, Putin talks about the root causes of the conflict, that is what he means. I mean, he actually said over the course of the press conference yesterday that any ceasefire has to lead ultimately there. I mean, otherwise, there's no point to it. And so he will want commitments because that's a lot. That's essentially what he was also saying during the press conference. He will want commitments from the Americans that it is Istanbul Plus that this is heading towards.

And the point to remember about Istanbul Plus is it doesn't just mean that the Ukrainians accept that this territory will be under Russian control. It's that the Ukrainians accept legally that it will be Russian territory. I mean, it's a major concession for them. So this is going to be, you know, difficult. And I have to say that it's far from clear at the moment how we're going to get there, given how impossible the Ukrainian leadership, this particular Ukrainian government is. Now, I think another reason why the Americans probably want to ceasefire is because they want elections in Ukraine

and they want to carry through those elections in order to give. Zelensky out. And I think that's probably the only way that we're going to get to this point is to get a leader in Kiev who will finally agree to move in the direction of Istanbul Plus. Now, I don't myself think that is going to be Timoshenko, because the Americans are very fixed on Timoshenko, but I think Timoshenko, as victim adventure has just pointed out, is probably going to be as complicated and difficult an individual to deal with. In some ways, as Zelensky himself is. She's much smarter than Zelensky.

I don't think she's going to make the kind of fundamental concessions that both the Russians and the Americans won. So we're a very, very long way from this, ending this. And I personally think that we're probably quite a long way from the ceasefire as well. Yeah. Maybe months. Maybe months. Maybe all the way to the end of the year.

Maybe, maybe all the way to the end of the year. And if this all holds together. Even this all holds together, which it may not do. At the same time, we now see that all kinds of attractive ideas are being dangled. The Americans buying Nord Stream. I'm in the mix of this kind. Reset it. Reset it.

Exactly. By the way, the Germans are freaking out over this one. I mean, they're horrified about this. It makes sense, doesn't it? Wow. Yes. From a business, I mean, would it work in a way that Russia would deliver the gas to some sort of joint venture, which would be the Americans? And then the Americans would sell it to the Europeans.

Correct. Orban talked about a plan like this. Yeah. He actually outlined a plan like this for Hungary. I believe he said that Hungary could set up a joint venture on the border with, with, with, Ukraine and then they would deal with the oil and gas. Exactly. So it's possible.

Absolutely. No reason why should be impossible at all. Of course, it would also create an important commonality of interest between the US and Russia, which a future US administration might be unwilling or might find difficult to walk back on. Just saying, I'm not saying that they wouldn't, but it might not be an easy. quite such an easy thing to do. And of course, as Putin and Lukashenko were joking, were together about it, puts the Europeans in a rather awkward position.

It's a very bad position for Mike up. They did it to themselves. Well, exactly. Yeah, they did it to themselves. If this doesn't hold up for a number of reasons. And all of these talks collapse or this type of plan to get to Istanbul plus falls apart or they can't get elections, whatever it is, do you think that the Trump White House would then be prepared to walk away, or do you think they're going to reverse course or stay the

course and escalate? I don't think they're going to stay the course and escalate. I think that doing so is so completely contrary to their rhetoric, but not just their rhetoric, but their inner beliefs. I mean, they're continuing to say that basically they were taken for a wrong. ride over Ukraine. At least not they, not they, but the United States, the American, not the Biden administration. I mean, they're making it quite clear that the Biden administration knew exactly what he was doing, but that the Biden administration, the near cons and the Europeans took the United States for a ride over Ukraine, involved the Ukraine, United States, in a pointless wall at enormous cost, which just doesn't serve any American interest. So I don't see how they can

continue to escalate. I mean, I think that is illogical. They might threaten to do so, but it would be bluff. And the moment it ran into problems, I think the Americans would quickly reverse course again. At least this administration would. And frankly, I don't think they want to go there. I mean, Trump has said he doesn't want to go there. So I don't think they will do it. But if it starts to go wrong, they have two options. One is to walk away, exactly as he said, which personally, I think they should have done right from the first day. I mean, another point Putin made, by the way, over the course of this press conference, and it was directed at Trump. He said, he's got his own country to run, and he's giving up so much of his time to them.

this. That was exactly what we warned would happen, by the way. That is exactly what Steve Bannon warned Trump would happen. We see all the problems he's having with the Europeans and the Ukrainians. We warned about that too. And now exactly that is playing out. I mean, I ought to make it clear, by the way, that I think that Trump wants to end this thing, but I still believe that it would have been better for him and the United States as well if they'd simply walked away from it right from the beginning and not wasted time with any of this. And I think he was drawn in to do it by Kellogg and maybe he's starting to sense that Kellogg gave him bad advice because we're now getting reports that Kellogg has effectively been sacked. So, I mean, anyway, but let's

stop push this. I think more likely, given that Trump is committing himself now to some kind of a peace process, is that his prestige is now going to be invested in this peace process, which was a mistake ever to allow it to happen. But it means that he's going to have to deliver a piece of some kind in the end. And as Eisenhower discovered with Korea and Nixon discovered with Vietnam, that means having to make big concessions to the other side in order to get there. So I think that Trump cannot let this thing fail. And whatever bump there is in the road,

he will have to move the process forward and eventually reach that agreement with the Russians, which will be Istanbul Plus or something like it, because anything less, as I said, would cause major damage to his prestige. Yeah. All right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchie, Telegram, Rockfin, and X. Go to the Durand Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. The link is in description box down below. Take care.