The Duran Podcast - Qatar-Syria gas pipeline

Episode Date: January 8, 2025

Qatar-Syria gas pipeline

All right, Alexander. Let's talk about Syria and pipelines, energy, natural gas. And the topic of Syria being regime change happening in Syria and now opening the way for Qatar to via Syria to Europe pipeline. It would have to go Syria, it would have to go Syria, Turkey, Europe. Yeah. Yeah, I'm picturing the map right now. So once again, Turkey would be a gas hub of sorts to Europe. But that's one of the main theories as to why the regime change was so pursued after by the collective West, all about removing Russia, blowing up Nord Stream, removing Russia from Europe, and eventually removing Assad and opening up the way for gas to transit by Syria into Europe.

And all of your gas problems are solved for the European Union. Is that the case? Well, there is something to this story, but it's a lot more complicated and nuance than people think. And I get to just venture before I proceed, my own view, which is that this pipeline is unlikely to happen for all kinds of reasons, which I'll come to in a moment. But let's go back to the origins of this. Now, way back in the early 2000s, the European Union was receiving pipelines from Russia,

gas from Russia via pipelines, which at that time were mostly across Ukraine, but Nord Stream was already being built, Nord Stream 1, and as we know, it was all going to be followed with Nord Stream 2. The European Union hated that. The European Commission absolutely hated dependence on Russia. So did the Americans, so did the British, So they were looking for alternative ways of getting gas to Europe. Now, remember, we're talking now about the early 2000s.

At that time, the only game in town was pipeline gas. LNG was being developed, but it did not yet exist in any substantial quantities. So the original idea floated in the early 2000s was to build a pipeline called the Nabucco pipeline. Now, that was originally supposed to send gas through Turkey from Azerbaijan. Now, the problem is, Azerbaijan never had a lot of gas. Post of the gas ultimately was supposed to come from Iran. Now, that was never said, but that was undoubtedly the case. There was also talk about getting gas from Iraq and from East.

Egypt even. But basically the country that was going to supply the gas was Iran. The trouble was Iran at that time, as today, you know, was the Islamic Republic. There was the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Hamenei and all of that. And he's still there. So people didn't really like Iran. Now, in 2009, when Nabucco was signed off, there was a pretty obvious color revolution attempt in Iran. Now, that's controversial, but that's as far as I'm concerned, exactly what it was. There was an attempt to dispute the election results in the presidential election that took place in Iran in 2009. There was big protests. The protests were eventually dispersed. The color revolution attempt failed. And from that moment on, it became

clear that Nabucca would never have gas. There would never be enough gas to keep Nabucca going. So that project failed, and it was basically called off in 2013, finally. So what do you do? 2009, your color revolution attempt in Iran has failed. Well, you come up with a new plan, and this is in 2009. And it is in 2009. It's not a coincidence. that they start talking about this new plan, this new pipeline from Qatar, which does have a lot of natural gas. And it was going to go through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria, and then go up north into Turkey, into the Turkish gas hub, and through Turkey, it was going to go into Europe. And in 2010, this was then proposed to Assad.

And there is a story that you read about all the time that Assad said no, except he didn't. This isn't actually quite what happened. What Assad said was, what he actually said was maybe, maybe. I do want a pipeline. I'm absolutely up for pipelines. What I want, however, is for the great big hub that's going to get all the gas to be located not in Turkey, why in Turkey? Why not in Syria itself? So that the gas can go directly from Syria to Europe.

Now, remember, in 2010, Assad was friends with the West. his wife was British, he'd been reorienting Syria more towards the West. It's a misconception that at this time he was a Russian Havar. I just want to make that point because this is, again, caused a huge amount of confusion. So he basically was saying, let's cut the Turks out. Let's do this gas up, but let's do it in Syria itself. after all, we got a coastline. We can send the gas from Tartis.

It can go over the sea. We can beat the gas hub rather than Turkey. Erdogan didn't like that at all. And that was one of the reasons why Erdogan backed the insurgency against Assad, which started a year later. So that's, it seems to me, the real story of the pipeline project then. Now, of course, the war came. There was no prospect of building any kind of pipeline whilst Syria was war. Assad had become persona non grata. There was the Caesar sanctions. The whole idea of a gas pipeline across Syria had basically been abandoned. Now Assad has fallen. So the story of this pipeline is being revived all over again. And there are people like the energy minister in Turkey, Mr. Bayractar, who's a relation, by the way, of Erdogan, the ones.

He's coming up with this idea all over again. But of course, there are problems. Firstly, Syria today is extremely unstable. It would be very difficult to build a pipeline through Syria in current conditions. But there is another problem which nobody ever talks about. which is that, of course, we are in a different technological universe. Back in the 2000s, pipeline gas, as I said, was the only way, basically, of transporting gas. Now we have LNG.

Qatar, which is the ultimate source of this gas, is now a major supplier of LNG. They have invested and built up their entire gas export industry under LNG. They don't need this pipeline. And why would they go for this pipeline at all? It would mean piping gas across Saudi Arabia, with which Qatar has a rocky relationship. A couple of years ago, during Trump's first term, Qatar and Saudi Arabia almost went to war. It would then mean transporting gas to Jordan, which potentially is unconstitutional. to Syria, which is extremely unstable, and of course, then sending it to Turkey, it would

mean paying transit fees to all of these countries. Why do it when you can deal directly with your customers by continuing with the LNG trade, which is working very, very well for Qatar? So I don't myself see, I'm not an energy economist. But I don't myself see why Qatar would be interested in this project. It belongs to another time. So I don't think this thing is going to happen, straightforwardly, because I don't see the economics of it.

Other one would like it to happen. But why would the Emir of Qatar go out of his way to do something that would benefit other one when, as I said, he's already got a very, very successful and stable trade with LNG already going and working well for him. Yeah, I'm looking at the map right now. You're talking about four countries getting trans-fries. Yeah. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria, and Turkey.

By the time that gas reached Bulgaria is where it would reach Greece and Bulgaria. Yeah. Four countries. When Russia pipelines LNG to Europe, you're just talking about one country. Correct. It gets the transit fees. That's either what was Ukraine until recently. where it was Turkey.

Yeah. And then Nord Stream cut all of that out, right? Absolutely. It went direct to Germany. Correct. Correct. Yeah, that was the power of North Stream. It was directly to Germany.

Then Germany would funnel that gas out to the European Union countries. Exactly. Yeah, why would Qatar do this? I mean, it doesn't make any sense. It doesn't make any kind of sense. I mean, in any situation, when you are selling a product, you want to cut out as many middlemen as possible. You don't want to give yourself full, all of whom are, you know, are extremely unstable. Extremely unstable or not always friendly to yourself.

I mean, the Saudis are not always friendly to Qatar, to put it mildly. Jordan, as Jordan in theory, as that said, unstable. And as we know, Erdogan is very volatile and unpredictable personality. You know, maybe he won't be there forever, but we have no guarantee that whoever replaces him. going to be any more stable than the other one is. So, I mean, I don't really see why Qatar would want to do this. And I do think they will. I don't think they will go for it. That's my own view. Yeah, well, I depend on someone like Erdogan. You're going to depend on Erdogan. One day, he may wake up in the morning and say, you know what, these transfer fees, I need to change

the price. You never know with Erdogan. Exactly. And then Syria is a mess, so you're going to build a pipeline through Syria. I mean, this is a project too that's going to take men. Yes. Many years. I mean, you know, in Cyprus, in the East Med, in the Mediterranean, in Cyprus, with the gas, it's been 20, 25 years. I don't even know how long. Yeah. And, I mean, you know, we're still waiting for all of that to be sorted out. I mean, these projects are going to take a long time. And who knows what shape Syria is going to even be in in the next six months in the next year. Who knows what shape is going to be in? Well, absolutely. I mean, the other thing to say, is that with LNG, Qatar not only has, you know, a well-established trade, which does it

did not exist in any fundamental way when this project was first being talked about. But it also has flexibility. So if there's a problem in Europe, they can divert gas, they can sell their gas to China or the East Asia, which is where the big market is likely to be. anyway, rather than in Europe, they can play off the various customers. If you build a pipeline, the pipeline can't be moved around. So you are committed to sending your gas through the pipeline in one particular direction. And again, I don't really see why Qatar would agree to this. I mean, none of this commercially, economically, even geopolitically, makes any sense to me.

from Qatar's point of view. As I said, back in 2009, you could see the logic. You could see that this was a, you know, Qatar was developing its gas fields at that time. You could argue that he could have a part. You could build itself a pipeline across, you know, the Arabian Peninsula to Turkey and all of that. Then it made sense. Today, I didn't see that it makes much sense at all. No, the geopolitically, the decision by the European Union to cut a Russian pipeline gas is awesome for Qatar.

Yeah. Why would you sabotage this windfall of money and sales, which is going to come from Europe to build a pipeline, which is going to have to transit four countries? I mean, this is great news for Qatar that the European Union is cutting off the Russian pipeline gas. Absolutely. Great news for that. them. Why would they sabotage all of this by building a pipeline through Syria? Exactly. None of this makes sense at all.

Absolutely. Absolutely. You know, I mean, maybe there will be all kinds of things happening in Qatar. Maybe they'll blind the officials or the pressure of the Emir, who, by the way, comes across to me as an extremely canny man. He understands this business very well as the he advises. But logically, I can't see the sense of this. And I think it's going to happen. So just a quick question to wrap with the video.

So Syria back then in 2000, what was the time period? 2009, 2009, 2010. So back then Syria was going to be as the LNG market was developing, as the infrastructure was developing, Assad's thinking was that Syria was going to be an LNG hub. So they would get the LNG from Kartari with transit Saudi Arabia, transit Jordan, go to Syria. and then they would export it from Syria via LNG to Europe. That was what they were hoping for. Or build a pipeline to Europe.

I mean, us was floating something that he called at the time. I remember the Four Seas initiative. Syria was going to connect all of these different places. And it was going to be the big great LNG, not just LNG pipeline gas, the gas hub of the Middle East. And that was going to make Syria very rich. That would have been difficult though, yeah. Well, Harry, we always said the only thing.

It was utopian. It antagonized Erdogan. And it was the single thing, I think, more than any other, that caused Erdogan to throw his weight behind the jihadis who basically, who ultimately overthrew Assa. It was a huge mistake. But anyway, as to stress again, Assad did not. stop the pipeline, cancel the pipeline when it was proposed in 2009, 2010, under Russian influence. He wasn't that close to the Russians at that time.

He did that because he wanted to keep the cake for himself. He didn't want to share any part of the cake with his friend in Ankara, who of course was Erdogan. And that was what set the two off against each other. So it's as is a rather more complicated than people understand. But anyway, the point is that was Assad's plan or dream back in 2010. He's paid a catastrophic price for it as has his country. It's the sort of thing that, if I can say so, an amateur in politics might come up with somebody who doesn't really understand the dangerous world.

forces that he's playing with in the Middle East. But the point is, whatever the plans were back in 2009, 2010, that they don't make much sense in the different economic conditions and technological conditions which exist today. Qatar has already built up. I mean, it didn't have it in 2010, but it's developed its LNG export system. It's invested massively in creating it. It's got the flexibility that comes with that. They can send their gas wherever the market is best. They can send it to Japan or Korea or China or the United States, even if it comes to that. They're not committed to one end user to the Europeans. And they don't have to pay transit fees. So why would they do it? Why would they, why would they do something like that?

this simply because Erdogan wants it and some people in Brussels want it as well. As is it, it doesn't make any sense to me. No, pipeline gas makes total sense if you're Russia using Nord Stream, where if you're Russia transiting the gas via Ukraine when Ukraine was a friendly country, one transit point, but it's a friendly country and Ukrainians benefited from the gas transit fees and Russia sees Ukraine as a brotherly nation, there it makes sense. It made sense. Back then, it made sense Nord Stream going directly to Germany.

Yes. That makes complete sense. Going to China. Yeah. Russian gas going to China. That makes complete sense. Going via Kazakhstan, a friendly country. Yes.

That makes sense. But for Qatar, this makes no sense. But just to wrap up the video, the key word that you said, where I smiled was friend. When Erdogan, a lot of people forget that Assad in Erdogan used to be friends. Correct. Aside in John Kerry used to have dinner together. Correct. Yeah.

And then this gas stuff, yeah. And then this gas stuff appeared on the sea. Anyway, that's my understanding. I'm going to say something else, by the way, as we move away gradually from a world of pipeline gas, because pipeline gas as a result of the destruction of all the pipelines to Europe, the Ukrainian ones, Nord Stream, all of the rest, rest, it's going to become an incidental part of the world's gas market. We're going to start to see more and more gas transported around the world, more expensively and less efficiently, fire LNG. But that's what the geopolitics of it are doing. Who are going to be the biggest

exporters of LNG long term? The Americans are at the moment, but more likely than not, Energy production, gas production of the United States is going to start to fall. And the US will probably want to keep more of its gas inside domestically within the United States. So the two big exporters are going to be eventually Qatar. I'm talking about LNG now, not pipeline gas, Qatar and Russia. Qatar has at various times floated the idea of a gas OPEC. And who is its partner going to be? Russia.

Exactly. Yeah. And Russia is going to be the big player in pipeline gas, but going east. So the East is going to benefit from the cheap, reliable, dependable pipeline gas, the efficient pipeline gas, while the West is going to be depending on the expensive LNG. LNG, exactly. Yeah. Which whose prices will be determined by Qatar and Russia. And Russia.

Just to say. Yeah. With Erdogan controlling the only pipeline cast going to Europe. Correct. Yeah. Good job, Europe. Yes. All right.

All right, we'll end the video there. The durand. We are on Rumbleaudetitutche, Telegram, Rockfin'NX and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video today. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.