The Duran Podcast - RACE for rare earths. War on BRICS

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

RACE for rare earths. War on BRICS

All right, Alexander, let's talk about U.S.-China relations. Let's talk about Russia, China relations. And perhaps we can start the video off by maybe going over the Trump-Gi meeting in South Korea. We've had a few days to get more information about the meeting, the summit, what was agreed on, what was not agreed on. And it does look like both sides are still not fully aligned as far as what the actual outcome of the summit was, which leads me to believe that we may be back at another negotiation, not in a year's time, but maybe even in a couple of months' time with more tensions between Russia, between China and the United States. And we also have some revelations with regards to the actual tariffs that the United States now has on China. Actually, a better way to put it is, we have more data about how China successfully negotiated the Liberation Day tariffs down to a very low percent, which indicates that in this summit between Trump and Xi. Xi came out far, far ahead on these negotiations.

And Trump, while he's painting a very positive picture of the negotiations with Xi, it's obvious that he does not have the leverage over China that he wants. And even Bessent is now saying that the United States is now in a race to solve the rare earth mineral problem that they have with China and he's talking about some rare earth mineral miracle or warp speed 2.0 where the United States will be able to take away China's leverage over them with rare earths in about a year's time. I don't know if that's possible or how that's possible, but this is what Scott Besson is saying. So obviously the United States now understands that China is holding all the cards and they look at it.

as a one-year timeframe in order to take away those cards from China. Absolutely. I think you've summed it up exactly. There is complete difference in the way that the Chinese and the Americans are reporting what happened in South Korea. The Americans continue to get this impression that this was somehow a pause that we've gone back to what was agreed in September in Madrid, which is basically a time. tariff pulls and that it's a time in order to give the US, it gives the United States a year's, a year's grace basically to break China's lock grip on rare earths. But if you go to what the Chinese Commerce Ministry are saying, their explanation of what was

discussed and agreed in South Korea. And before that, in KL, by Besant and the Chinese negotiators, the impression one gets is that the United States caved on a whole lot of different things. I mean, admittedly, only for a year, but it was nonetheless a big cave in overall. The key one, the thing that apparently the Chinese were really pushed back hard on was this 50% rule. The United States announced back in September after the Madrid trade truce. Remember when we did a previous program, we said that after the Madrid trade truce, the United States went in for salami slicing.

And this was the thing that apparently finally pushed the Chinese over the edge. Because after the Madrid trade truce, it's barren this salami slicing, the United States announced that it would not sell high technology goods to countries, to companies that Chinese companies that had 50% ownership. by other Chinese sanctioned companies. And that increased the number of, in effect, sanctioned Chinese companies from 1400 to around 20,000. And the Chinese said, no, no, enough's enough.

This is absolutely unacceptable. And they rolled out this announcement about rare earths, the regulatory system related to rare earths, which it turns out they had actually already basically set up in the spring, but they publicly announced it in a way that suggested that they were going to start enforcing it and start enforcing it in a really tough way. And the other thing that enraged the Chinese was something that the US did actually before the September truth. back in August, which it imposed fees,

harbour fees on ships that were built in China, but which came to American ports. And this is not ships that were operated by Chinese shipping companies or that might be trading with China or have anything to do with actual trade with China. It was just ships that were built in China. They might have been bought by a Danish ship owner, sending goods to the United States from Germany, for example.

But it would nonetheless, because it was built in China, that ship would nonetheless attract higher harbor fees. And the Chinese were furious about that. And the United States had to walk all that back. They walked back the 50% rule, which is a big, you know, big. concession. And they walked back the harbor fees and there was a major renegotiation on overall tariffs and the United States halved the tariffs on the fentanyl and apparently has granted all kinds of other carve-outs on the tariffs. And some are calculating that the overall tariffs that the

United States now imposes on China is around 40% of cost, but others say that if it goes with all the caravats, it is significantly less than this and well below what many other countries are paying the United States in terms of tariffs. So China clearly came out the big winner out of this negotiation. Now, this is all based on what the Chinese commerce ministry is saying. And I have to say, I think overall it is true. And obviously, what spooked the US was two things. Firstly, the Chinese were withholding all kinds of other technologies, including middle to lower range, lower range chips, the Nixpedia chips that we've been hearing so much about. And that's causing havoc already, by the way, in the European

car industry, and it looked as if the Chinese were solving their stunts, but over the last 24 hours, by the way, the Chinese had been hardening their stance, especially where the Europeans are concerned, and there's now huge rows going on between Chinese Nixpedia in China and Expedia and the Europe, the new European management of Nixpedia in Europe. Anyway, there was all that, but more and beyond that. there is the question of rare earths. And the Americans clearly know that on rare earths, China at the moment has this decisive advantage.

So they're talking about finding the solution to the rare earth's problem within a year. Now, that is going to be an incredibly tall order from everything that I've heard about rare earths. I would have thought, I would have said, it is impossible. And talking about Operation Warp Speed 2 seems to me incredibly unwise, given what Operation Warp Speed 1 was all about, which just to remind people that happened during the pandemic, and it was all about, you know,

rolling out all kinds of, well, treatments, shall we call them, which, as it turned out, have proved very, very controversial indeed. I'm being very careful what I'd say here because, well, we all know why. What a messaging message. I know. It's absolutely disastrous messaging here. And of course, that does call into question whether this is going to happen. I mean, I would have said no. And that brings us back to this question of who really does have this advantage? Because based on what happened in South Korea, China clearly does at the moment. And I can't imagine that in a year's time, it's going to be any different. But this messaging that's coming from the US appears to suggest that not only are things with China not resolved, but the underlying hostility between the

US and China is still there, despite all the positive mood music that we heard from Trump after the meeting in South Korea, all the effusive language that he extended to see Xi Jinping. And you're absolutely right. There's no reason to think that things are going to improve, more likely than not in one or two months' time, something is going to happen. And we're going to see this whole situation revert back to where it was just a few weeks ago. because the substantive trade negotiations between the United States and China are still not taking place, and it's unlikely they will. It's Trump's never-ending a quest to get leverage over other countries, right, over other powers. We've seen it with Russia, and now we're seeing it with China.

And so his way of seeing things is, look, they have this rare earth advantage over us. So we need to figure this thing out in a year's time or two years' time. And that way I can go into the negotiations and I can strong arm them. Yeah. Right? I can dictate the terms because obviously this time around he was not able to dictate the terms. China dictated the terms. And so that's what this is really about. I mean, China must have anticipated this as well, right? Yeah, absolutely. The United States is going to try to remove the rare earth monopoly that they have. and they do have a monopoly on rare earths. So the United States is not going to push to remove that

so that they can gain leverage and advantage over China. I mean, this is not even a structured divorce. What we're seeing is actually a very violent divorce that is about to take place. Absolutely. It's just that one side has the advantage over the other and has forced the other to make a retreat and to make big concessions.

Now, if we're talking about doing this in a year, well, can I just give an example, which is the Manhattan program, which everybody in the United States knows all about, which gave the United States a temporary advantage in nuclear weapons, which, of course, it used in 1945. The Manhattan program really got going, I believe, in 1942. So that took three years. And it was based on a science. that had already been involving and was well understood amongst physicists and had been evolving since the 1920s. So there was already a strong theoretical basis. Obviously, there was a lot of challenges, huge challenges, in getting on top of the technology, but you already had the theory to hand. And even then, despite having the theory, it still took a couple of years before they got there. Now, maybe I am not making an exact analogy. But as I understand it, in terms of refining some of these rare earths, the problem is that the United States doesn't have the theory. It has to work out the theory.

first, then it's got to develop the technology. Doing all of that in one year, I mean, that seems to me like a very tall order indeed. I would have said, personally, it is impossible. If you gave all your resources, all your time, if you, you know, mobilized the entire US science and technology, base, which is huge, by the way, and still incredibly powerful, well, then probably you could do it, but it would take you some years to do. Doing it all in a year, I would have said it can't be done. Japan has been trying to do it since 2010 and has only had a certain measure of success with some of the apparently simpler rare earths.

The US obviously can draw on what Japan has achieved, but achieving full independence of China in rare earths is going to take a long time. How long? I'm not going to try and guess, but certainly I would have thought more than a year. And the Chinese obviously know that, and they're making those calculations.

and they also know that the Americans are going to come back for them eventually, and they're going to be taking their own steps to prepare. And this is the other thing to say, and you're absolutely right. This is not an orderly structured divorce. It is a very violent one. And it explains the body language of the two leaders in South Korea. We saw, you know, Trump trying to be as charming. to see some thing as possible, because he knew he was in a weak position.

And we saw sea being icy and aloof and distant because he knew he was in a strong position. But there was no real underlying sincerity and warmth. I think that's now absolutely clear on the part of either man towards the other. contrast that we see Xi Jinping's relations with Vladimir Putin which are obviously warm

and friendly and well Trump went to South Korea talking about how he was trying to get to get China to help with putting pressure on Russia. We've already said this isn't going to happen straight after

this meeting. The Russian Prime Minister Michael Mushurstin is in Beijing, first in Hangzhou and then in Beijing, the Russian deputy prime minister who's an overall charge of the economy, Dennis Mantorov, is also in Beijing. Muschustin is going to meet Xi Jinping himself. There's apparently a whole series of further economic agreements between China and Russia going to be agreed. And of course, The point is that because China understands that this is a violent divorce and understands that the United States does still retain some elements of leverage over raw materials and food access

and that kind of thing and will eventually at some point in the future, however long it takes, no doubt find its way to the rare earth. The Chinese are already busy trying to make their own secure their own supply lines. And the Russians can provide China with energy. They can provide Russia, China with oil, with LNG, with food, even soybeans, by the way, eventually, if that's what it comes to. And by the way, rare us as well, Russia is full of them. Apparently, he's got lots of them. So you can see, and there's also industrial cooperation.

Russia apparently is more advanced than China in some areas of aerospace technology, and building aircraft engines and that kind of thing. So the Chinese are working hard to put themselves in a strong position relative to this violent divorce that you're talking about. The Americans, foolishly, are talking about Operation Warp Speed 2. Well, they see that as their big weakness. Yeah. But, you know, just a final comment and question. The things that we're seeing play out now in the world, whether it's Venezuela, the comments

about Nigeria, Iran, Project Ukraine, when you take a step, back and look at everything that's going on, it's all roads do lead to China, to bricks, to one belt, one road. I mean, that is what all of this is about. And if you're China, you're saying, you know, they're eventually going to come after us, or they're already coming after us. Not in an exact direct way, like we're seeing play out, say in Ukraine, for example, or what we might see play out in Venezuela. But eventually they are going to come for us in a direct way. And what they're trying to do, what the West is trying to do is they're trying to weaken us in various other parts of the world or on the chessboard.

They're trying to take off pieces on the chessboard. Yes. Right. And this is going to probably lead to China supporting their partners more than, than what they were in the past. For example, with Russia, China's got to be saying, okay, so Trump is coming to us in South Korea, and he's saying, let's work together to solve a project Ukraine

to get Putin to agree to ceasefire, while China's probably saying, you know what, you know, if we help you destroy Russia, well, then, you know, you're coming after us, you know, next. So what we're going to do is we're going to actually do everything in our power to help Russia win, to help Russia defeat NATO. That is exactly what the Chinese are saying. That's why all these important officials from Russia are arriving in China at this time.

That's why Xi Jinping is going to meet the Russian Prime Minister. That is exactly what the Chinese are saying. They say it even in their own media. And apparently they say still more in social media as well. There's apparently a lot of discussion and commentary about all of this. at every level of the Chinese government extending into some sections of Chinese society. And you're absolutely right. Of course, Russia is absolutely key because it is the great resource basket

that China is now going to be looking to draw upon and which it is going to be anxious to secure. I mean, Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, a couple of months ago, is supposed to have told, that almost certainly did tell Kyakales, we're not going to let Russia lose, because if Russia loses in Ukraine, all that we're going to be doing is setting up the situation where you can come after us. So, you know, why are you asking us? I mean, are you, do you think we're stupid that we don't see what you're trying to do? I mean, that was apparently what Wang Yi said to Kayakalas, and I believe it.

Now, if we're talking about other members of BRICS, of course now, China has a need to shore up the BRICs, because the BRICS, again, are its way of maintaining its global economic influence. The BRIC states are increasingly going to become the market for its goods, and the place that it trades with and which provide it with its economic and strategic depths. And we saw one other important BRICS country, India. Modi went to China in August. Modi is avoiding talking to Trump. There are reports that India is actually resisting American pressure to stop Russian oil purchases. There was all the talk about Rosneft and Luke Eft and Luke oil and the sanctions against

Rosneft and Luke oil. And we had a flurry of articles appearing in the Western media, the American and British media about how Indian refiners were stopping buying Russian oil. The latest article from Reuters says that India has bought more cargoes. of Russian oil in December. So it looks as if India is still intent on buying Russian oil. And Putin is still due to visit India in December. And India has just done deals with Russia on aerospace.

They're going to build Russian Suhoi super jets in India. This is one thing that they've decided to do. They've just concluded an agreement with Russia on buying, on military cooperation. Apparently, they want to build Russian Suhoi fifth generation fighters in India, but using Indian radar technology and all of that kind of thing. And they've even apparently negotiated an agreement on oil shipments by sea, which suggests to me that there's some kind of an agreement underway whereby oil is shipped to India, but it goes through various intermediaries and that there's a whole new structure to do that being created. Now, that's about India and Russia, but it implies that there's some kind of deal being done between India and China as well, because Russia, as we know, is friendly to China. China is not being pressured by the United States in terms of buying Russian oil because the United States does not do that because of the United States dare not do that. as we see, the Chinese are able to cut off rare earths, cut off chips and do all sort of

things that could wreak havoc across the US economy. So the US is putting pressure on India, which is supposed to be its friend. The Indians are responding by maintaining their friendship with Russia. I can't help but think that they're going to start working with the Chinese on other things too. And all of this is pointless. I mean, it's a point. I also want to say, because it is absolutely the case that Xi Jinping and Trump used to have a good relationship with each other. And it is also the case that the Chinese came to understand that the export machine that China became sending unlimited supplies of goods to the United States, that that was no longer viable, that the United States was going to push back.

An orderly structured divorce in those terms was absolutely possible. And China could still have acted as a partner with the United States on trade issues. We've discussed in many places that instead of the United States, clinging on to this attempt to preserve the dollar monopoly, seeing bricks as a threat and a challenge, and all of that, the United States could have worked towards some kind of general understanding with bricks. It could even have considered apparently Russian proposals that it might want to think about aligning itself with bricks. Instead, it's going to cling on to its old relationships with Europe, a Europe which continues to go further and further down.

Exactly. Exactly. All right. You summed it up. Well, all right, we will end the video there. Thedurad.locals.com. We are also on substack. There is a link to our substack in the description box down below.

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