The Duran Podcast - Realpolitik Russia deal that Trump avoids

Episode Date: April 10, 2025

Realpolitik Russia deal that Trump avoids

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Dimitriov in the United States, the meetings that he took in the U.S., which were, as he put it, focused on investment and on business. That's his job. That's what he's there to do. But he made it a point as he was doing the media rounds to tell everyone that was interviewing him from the U.S. media, Fox News and CNN, that he's not in the U.S. to talk about. front lines, diplomacy, negotiations, military stuff. He said, I'm here to discuss negotiations on the business side of things, a normalization of business ties between the U.S. and Russia. And Dimitriev, when he returned to Moscow, he said the meeting was a success, cautiously optimistic, I believe, are the words that he used in describing how the Russians feel about

Dimitrieff's trip to the United States. On the Ukraine side, you have the minerals deal, which is just never-ending, never-ending. And I wonder if we ever are going to get a deal or if this is just a long, drawn-out clown-world segment. But, you know, if Zelensky were to sign that minerals deal, it would effectively mean the end of Ukraine. Even the telegraph, actually, in an article that they put out yesterday, which was your standard UK propaganda, Russia bad, Trump bad, Zelensky's Churchill, and all of these things. They even had to admit that Trump is putting the squeeze on Zelensky to sign the minerals deal, and it would mean the the Ukraine resource is going completely to the United States forever.

So even the telegraph could not avoid the catastrophe that would be the signing of the Trump mineral deal. So your thoughts on minerals deals and on the Bittreyev, whichever one you want to get into first. Well, let's talk about the minerals deal first because my own view about the minerals deal is that whoever drew it up and it's clearly been approved by Trump himself, has pitched it at a level that makes it all but impossible for Ukraine ever to agree to it. I mean, it is so extreme in the harshness of its terms

which it imposes on Ukraine that it would, no self-respecting, no properly functioning government in Ukraine could ever sign a deal in that form. No less a person, well, maybe I should rephrase that, even Annalina Beirbock, the German foreign minister, has grasped, for example, that if Ukraine signs this deal, it cannot join the European Union. For example, I mean, it is so completely in conflict with EU law, with the acquies, that if Ukraine word to sign it, it would in effect be imposing upon itself a legal and regulatory and treaty structure that is completely incompatible with EU membership. And I don't frankly see how that

circle can be squared. I mean, either the EU is a single market, with all that goes without, you know, free movement of people and services and capital and trade in goods and trade in assets, or it is not. I mean, I don't quite understand how you can get around that without having to carry out major fundamental changes to EU law, to the so-called acquis, which I think that would be extremely difficult to do. So, whoever drafted that in Washington did it with the intention of getting Ukraine to reject it. And as we've discussed, in previous programs, I think that this has been done precisely with that end in mind so as to give the administration, to give Donald Trump, the reason he's looking for

finally to cut Ukraine off, to stop further aid, certainly military aid to Ukraine and economic aid to Ukraine. Because what else is the point of this? Now, having said that, we are talking about Ukraine, which is a very, well, shall we say, unusual country. What if the Ukrainians do decide to sign it? What if they sign it and the Ukrainian parliament ratifies it? Of course, one should know in advance that if they do sign it, they won't honour it because the Ukrainians don't honour these agreements. But, you know, in the meantime, they will have signed the thing, it will be ratified by the Ukrainian parliament. They'll come along and say to Trump, look, we're doing all that you've asked us to do. This is extreme and impossible. But we've gone

even as far as this and we've committed ourselves to doing this. Then it seems to me that Trump and his team have a very difficult problem ahead of them. Because if the Ukrainians take this extraordinary stamp. Disastrous, though, it would be for Ukraine. I mean, it would, as you correctly say, be the end of Ukraine as a functioning state. It would probably, quite possibly, trigger a political crisis in Ukraine. But Zelensky could say, well, I've done all that I, you've asked me to do. No, you must see through.

You must support me. You must go on giving me. the weapons and money and all of the rest that I need so as to make this investment that you're making in Ukraine effective. Does the agreement say that? No, it doesn't. It doesn't say that at all. It doesn't compel the US to do anything, I believe, actually.

It doesn't compel the US to do anything. But you could see how Zelensky is going to spin it in that way. So that I think is something that, you know, people in Washington need to think about. They've pitched this at a level, which makes it impossible for any self-respecting country to agree to this. But the government of Ukraine doesn't see itself in those terms. It's not leading, if you like, an ordinary, normal, conventional, self-respecting. country. So that's one thing. Now, the other side of the story is Russia and Dimitriov going to Washington, meeting apparently with Weighoff in the White House, meeting with all sorts of other

people, and we've never been given a full list of the people whom Dimitriov has met with. Neither the Americans nor the Russians have provided us with that list, which is interesting. And I do wonder whether one of the people he might have met, given that he went to the White House, might have been Donald Trump himself. And you made the absolutely correct point in one of our earlier programs that the fact that the Americans have not tariffed Russia, despite the fact that Russian American trade, notwithstanding the sanctions, is still greater than, say, trade between, Ukraine of the United States and Ukraine has actually been tariff. Well, that suggests that these were substantive discussions that the United States is not going ahead with tariffs on Russia. What American official has all but said as much, because they are actually looking to negotiate a real commercial deal with the Russians going forward.

Because as you also correctly said in one of our programs, the Russians are in a position to provide the Americans with many of the things that Trump would need in order to keep inflation in the United States under control, cheap energy, cheap foodstuffs, lots of raw materials, aluminum, titanium, things of that kind. So, Dimitriye comes along to the Americans. He tells them, look, we've got all of these things. We are absolutely prepared to do a deal with you. We're prepared to do deals with you on Arctic development as well, if that's what you want. We're absolutely open to that. We're even happy for American businesses to come to, um, Russia and take the place of European businesses, which unwisely exited Russia after the sanctions

were imposed. So, you know, and we can deliver on all of this. This isn't controversial or existential for us as it is for Ukraine. Now, here again, the problem the Americans have with all of this is that this is very attractive to them. Do they continue to hold themselves hostage to developments in Ukraine, which might be very tricky before they move forward with the Russians on all of these things? Or do they go for them now when they actually need them? And again, I get the sense that the Americans haven't really worked this out or thought it through. Now, when we discussed the Black Sea Initiative, the fact that the Russians have said that in order for the Black Sea Initiative to work, all of the things that they were promised back in 2022,

the lifting of sanctions on the Russian Agricultural Bank, its reconnection to the SWIFT payment system, the provision of insurance to Russian ships, the trade in grain, all of those things. The Russians are saying, look, we need to have all of those things done. It's an incredible fact, by the way, that nowhere in the media in the West is it acknowledged that all of these things were promised as part of the original Green Deal in 2022. The Russians are saying, we have to have these things if we are going to go back to the Green Deal. We need to go back to what we thought we'd agreed in 2022. The Europeans are saying, no, we're not going to lift the sanctions. We're not going to relax them in any way. We're not going to reconnect the Russian Agricultural Bank to Swift.

Now, the Americans can circumvent that. There are payment mechanisms, and I think we've both received information about this. There are payment mechanisms that Americans could use. There are corresponding banks in the United States that could be activated to do this. There could be mechanisms to provide American insurance to Russian ships. All of this could be put in place and it could be put in place quite fast. The Black Sea initiative could then be activated and that would be a a massive step forward towards moving towards these bigger commercial deals that Dmitrieff was talking about with the Americans. And it looks as if there's going to be another meeting next week. Dimitriyev was talking about this to talk about the Black Sea initiative.

And it looks as if the Americans have given the Russians some kind of document. We don't know what it says. which appears to commit the United States to moving forward with all of that. If the Americans do move forward with those things, then we could say definitely that the Americans are not letting themselves be held hostage to progress on the conflict in Ukraine in order to move forward with the economic rapprochement, if you like, with the Russians. And that, by the way, if that were to happen,

it would obviously provoke a massive crisis in Europe. But it would also, strangely enough, in my opinion, accelerate the move towards peace in Ukraine. Yeah, Europe would flip out. The UK would flip out, especially now after the tariffs and everything that's going on between the US and the EU. Yeah, they would flip out. But you know, it's a no-brainer if you're the United States.

If you look at it from a business perspective and the geopolitical, it's a no-brainer. But if you look at it through a neocon, we're going to rule the world perspective, okay, you go with Ukraine and minerals deal and nonsense like that. But if you're looking at it from a real politic, geopolitical, national interest as well as business perspective, it's a no-brainer. Absolutely. I would have said so. If you are really all about America first, that is what you do. If the Ukrainians come along and sign the minerals deal, they're not going to honor it.

They can't. I mean, it's impossible to honor. They would be signing something which they know they can't implement. And the Americans know they can't implement. So why not just go ahead and do this deal with the Russians and move the thing forward? and, you know, get that trade with the Russians moving again, which perhaps would create a relationship with Russia, which would balance out Russia's relationship with China to some degree, and which would provide all kinds of major material benefits to the United States as well.

I mean, it is, as you rightly said, it is real politics. But as real politics, real politics, it makes complete sense. That's what I would have said. What would China say about something like it, if it were to happen? It's a big if. But let's just say the Trump administration says, okay, let's go down this path with Russia. We've been saying it for a while now. And this is indeed, and we've been proven right because the Russians have said this is

their strategy with the United States. They've spelled it out. They're looking at normalizing relations with the United States. Lovov has said it. Ukraine is a part of it, but it's not the only thing that they need to discuss. While you have people like Waltz and Ruby and Kellogg, all they want to talk about is Ukraine. They look at it through the lens of Ukraine and nothing else. Russia is looking at it from the lens of a complete normalization of relations with the United

States, of which we're going to have to solve Ukraine. But we've got X, Y, and Z issues and so many things that we need to talk about. And we have so many opportunities that we can exercise. But how does Bricks, how does China look at all of this? Well, I think they inevitably, they're going to be quite nervous in the sense that obviously the absolute linchpin of Bricks is the relationship between China and Russia. Now, the Russians have made it absolutely clear to the Americans, to the Chinese, that none of this is going to be at the expense of China.

And I think the Russians are absolutely sincere about that, but the Chinese inevitably are going to say to themselves, well, the Americans are there, they're talking to the Russians again. We've got to make sure that our relations with Russia remain unaffected. And that might mean that we start developing our trade with the Russians even more. So, you know, Chinese banks which have been unwilling to process mere payments, for example, might start to have to process mere payments. Bear in mind, China has done business with the United States despite the sanctions that were imposed on Russia. So the Russians are in no, you know, they have no reason to feel embarrassed about, opening up their relations with the US.

I mean, it's always been understood in the Chinese-Russian relationship, that it is a relationship between these two countries, but that it doesn't require either of these countries to make decisions to their detriment in terms of their relations with third countries, including the Americans. So this doesn't break any understanding, between China and Russia. But the Chinese will want to make sure that if the Russians are now starting to deal with the Americans, if the Americans, for example, are starting to work with the Russians

in the Arctic, that the Chinese are also there as part of the game. And that will change the whole dynamic of international relations. And it will change it, it will change it rapidly and dramatically. So that's China. Can I just say something about Europe? If this kind of thing were to happen, it would be devastating for Europe. To give one example, the Lloyd's insurance market in London, it would be killed. It would be killed overnight. It would cease to exist.

If American insurers were insuring ships, which Lloyd's was unable to ensure, what is the point of Lloyd's anymore? I mean, it would finish. Yeah, but isn't it a business opportunity for the United States? If you're very cold about it and you throw aside this special relationship that you have with the UK and all of this stuff, and you're just looking at it once again from a business perspective,

you would say, well, here's a gap in the market, Here's an opportunity for us. Let's take it. Absolutely, of course. I mean, I'm not suggesting that the Americans should be sentimental about this to the British in any way. Well, they are in a way. I mean, parts of the U.S. Parts of the U.S.

That whole special relationship. Yeah, absolutely all that. Yeah, absolutely. But, I mean, looking at this in real politic terms, I mean, there's no reason why the Americans should not seize this business opportunity with both hands. if Lloyd's has absented itself from a huge market, I mean, the so-called shadow fleet that the Russians have, I mean, the official figure is that it numbers around 600 ships. Suppose it, I've heard figures that it's much, much more than that, well over a thousand.

I mean, there's a huge part of world shipping now that Lloyd's is essentially prevented from providing insurance for, which the Americans could just move into. And as I said, if it kills Lloyds, why should America, the very hard-nosed, tough-minded people in New York, where it presumably all be done, why should they care? Europe did this to themselves, though.

Absolutely. And the UK, the UK and the EU did this to themselves. I guess that's why they're also panicking now to appoint Macron as the special envoy. But, man, are they late? And man, is Macron the wrong person? Absolutely. Well, again, what they should have done when the Americans and the Russians

came to this understanding over the Black Sea initiative is that before they made any announcements about, you know, that they're not going to relax or change sanctions, they should have spoken to the Americans and try to understand what the Americans were up to. And if they discovered that the Americans are serious about this, then again, in order to protect European business and industries, and in the case of Britain, the Lloyd's insurance market, they should have moved to relax those sanctions. If they stick to the position that they're taking now, which is that they weren't relaxed sanctions at all so that ships can't get insurance in London. I mean, they're putting themselves potentially at very great risk. Now,

it may be that the neocons in Washington will win out and the Europeans don't have to face these challenges. But what if they do? That is the kind of thing that governments are elected to think about and worry about and prepare for in advance. No sign that anybody in Europe is thinking about this. Yeah, it's true. If the neocons went out, okay, they don't have to worry about any of this stuff. They're still going to go down and defeat, mind you. Trump, the Trump administration, the entire collective West is going to go down and defeat.

No doubt about that. And it's going to take Trump down with them. But if Trump decides to do business with Russia and just kind of puts a pin and just kind of puts a pin in Ukraine, let's not let Ukraine overtake the normalization of ties that we have going on, then Europe and the UK are in big trouble. Yes. Very big trouble. Was it worth it worth killing your insurance industry, UK for Ukraine?

Was it really worth it? I mean, these are the questions that are going to be asked of Stammer. Well, absolutely. I think there's a point that people need to understand. The reason London has been such an important. financial centre is precisely because London has historically played such a huge role in world trade. And the reason it has played a huge role in world trade is obviously because there was the British Empire, but also because of Britain's central role in shipping law and in maritime insurance.

take that away and London's role as a financial centre, which is already sagging, by the way, I mean, London isn't doing very well as a financial centre at all anymore. But its whole role as a financial centre collapses. It loses its entire justification anymore. The British Empire is gone. Britain is a minimal player in terms of trade in goods. but it does provide these services, banking, insurance, that kind of thing, which, as I said, if you take those away, there's no point to it anymore. Now, the other thing to say is that, of course, Lloyd's, if you're talking about the British ruling class, has played an outsized role in, you know, forming their understanding of things and how they,

They function and, you know, their own sense of themselves. I mean, the world of Lloyd's names, you know, that people joined Lloyds, which was a kind of collective of wealthy individuals who put up their fortunes so that insurance could be provided to ships. And it was incredibly profitable for decades. You always got a guaranteed check at the end of the year, which you could. then use to pay your children's private school fees. I mean, a world which I remember very well and which I was partly, which I used to be to some extent a part of. I mean, I can remember it.

Well, that may not exist to the same degree anymore, but there are still elements of that there. And, you know, the British ruling class was shaved around this to a great extent. If it's all taken away, if it all goes, I mean, this will be a huge, huge blow to them. Yeah, just a final question or a final thought. I've always wondered why the European and the UK business class has not put pressure on their government. Even today, maybe they are behind the scenes to drop this, this nonsense about all that it, as long as it takes with Ukraine. And just forget about it. Look at what the U.S. is doing. We need to start normalizing relations with Russia or else we're going to get cut out. I mean, I've always wondered why they're not

doing it. In the beginning of the special military operation, my thought was that the Biden administration and the European Commission and the EU, they told the business interests, look, the Russian Federation is going to be done in three to six months. Don't worry about it. Once we remove Putin, then as business, as business people, as business oligarchs, Russia's fair game. You guys can move in and take whatever you want. And so the riches, the plunder will be beyond belief. I imagine that's what they told them the first six months of the first year of the conflict. But after three years, you've got to imagine that the business interests, they understand that they've lost big time. This war is lost. And they're going to lose out.

They've already lost out on the Russian market. Ukraine is being swallowed. up by Russia or maybe swallowed up by Trump if they signed the minerals deal. Why are they not telling Stomber? Why they're not telling Ursula? Stop. Stop with this nonsense. Connect flights again. Open. Get business ties going again. Let's start insuring the ships. Stop with this as long as it takes Zelensky nonsense. You're absolutely right. By the way, you're completely correct about your first point. That is exactly what they told. You're European business in 2022. But you can just give it a few months.

By midsummer, the latest, you know, by June, you know, Russia will be on his knees economically. Putin will be pushed out and, you know, we'll have a friendly government in Moscow. I mean, that is exactly what they were told. That is exactly what they believed. The cut off of gas, for example, is only temporary. And one of the reasons why Nord Stream was blown up in the autumn was because by that point it was clear that it was not going to be only temporary. So you had to cut off, blow up Nord Stream so as to prevent agitation and people in Germany in particular coming back and say, well, look, it's not turning out quite as fast as you said it was.

We need to get the pipeline gas. So can you please switch the pipelines off? That is the understory. That is the framework story behind it. You need to know in order to understand all of this. Now, about the general attitudes of the business community across Europe, I am as bemused by it as you are. I mean, it makes no sense at all.

I mean, business people in general don't like to take a very very very very. open position on politics. And this is, I think, something that, I mean, behind the scenes, they could talk to politicians and they could talk very, very forthrightly. But they tend to be a bit inhibited in talking about, especially foreign policy to governments. And of course, they've undoubtedly been intimidated by the hysteria that they have been seeing, you know, blowing across Europe, you know, the Russians are coming. This is aggression. If you start siding with the Russians, you're becoming a Putin enabler. You are abetting Russian aggression. And of course, many business people are themselves influenced by this hysteria, and they will

probably go along with it. But I think you are now starting to see cracks. They are not very strong. But I gather it in Italy, for example, the business community has basically had enough. and have told Maloney as much. And you see that Maloney has been shifting. And, you know, Italy is a big industrial power by European standards. It's a major machine toolmaker, just to say that most people don't know. The Italians are beginning to question the whole policy. Maloney is against sending troops to Ukraine.

She's been floating ideas about ceasefires and all those sorts. things. She's got Salvini coming back and becoming more active. And it's known that Salvini is very, very close to the big industrialists in the north of Italy. So there is that sort of movement in Italy. In Germany, the first cracks are starting to show. You're starting to get CDU politicians, even at the odd SPD politician. Obviously, again, they've been hearing from business people, telling them, look, this has gone far enough. We have to get the pipeline gas moving. We've got to move towards some normalization. But they're still well behind the curve there. I'm afraid in Britain, we are nowhere.

I mean, I've seen no one within the business world in Britain. And as far as I know in France, who've been prepared to break ranks of, I mean, I've seen no one within the business world in Britain. And as far as I know in France, on these questions and to speak out in this way. And if business, the business community in Europe is destroyed, well, they'll have built their own scaffold, basically, because by remaining silent as Europe committed economic suicide, they were accessories to that suicide. We will leave it there.

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