The Duran Podcast - Ripping up RUSSIAN sanctions

Episode Date: February 17, 2025

Ripping up RUSSIAN sanctions ...

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 All right, Alexander, let's talk about Saudi Arabia. And we have Lavrov, Rubio, a Russian delegation, a U.S. delegation heading to Saudi Arabia. Most likely they will be preparing the way for an end-of-the-month summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. What are your thoughts about all of the breaking news with this, this president? preparation of a big summit. I mean, this is going to be huge. Actually, I would like to say that it's a Russia-U.S. Putin-Trump with a little bit of MBS Saudi Arabia summit, which I think is important that Saudi Arabia is going to be in the mix. Anyway, what are your thoughts? It is absolutely essential. And just to say very quickly that MBS is going to host, is hosting
Starting point is 00:00:52 this meeting that is taking place currently in Riyadh, but he's also going to be hosting the summit meeting between Putin and Trump, all the indications are that that's going to happen in Riyadh as well in perhaps a week or 10 days' time. And he's apparently going to be participating. There's talk that he's going to be acting as some kind of, fulfilling some kind of mediation role. Now, by the way, just to quickly finish on NBS, this is an enormous personal boost for him. His father, the king, is said to be quite unwell, very unwell if I mean, I even heard stories that the king is in a coma. I don't know whether that's even true. But I mean, but there is likely to be a succession process in Saudi Arabia before long. In Saudi Arabia's successions are never entirely smooth between one king and another. And MBS is still very young. So some of the princes might be worried about the fact that if he becomes king, he, he will be king for decades, and that could be, you know, a source of some tension. But with the Americans and the Russians backing him, it's going to be very easy, much easier for him to be able to manage
Starting point is 00:02:14 this transition and to succeed his father and to become king himself. Anyway, I don't want to say more about NBS because that's a whole separate discussion. Let's focus on what is going on. Now, we've had this morning confirmation from the Russians about whom they are sending to Riyadh, and they're on the plane, and it is going to be Lavrov. Lavrov is going to meet with Rubio, and Yuri Ushikov, who is Putin's major foreign policy advisor, he's going to be squaring off against Mike Walsh. Putin's national security advisor or equivalent to national security advisor is, of course, Sergei Shogu. But there would probably be some concerns about Shoigu meeting at Wals at this particular time, because Shoygu obviously is sanctioned, but also he was the defense minister at the time when the special military operation began,
Starting point is 00:03:15 and for most of its duration until a few months ago, in fact. So it might look rather odd and difficult and be difficult for the Americans. if the Russians send Shoygu. So the Russians, astute diplomats as they are, are sending Ushikov instead. And Ushikov is a very, very senior person and very well-in-forward about foreign policy. Now, we've had a telephone call between Rubio and Lavrov. The Russians have produced a fairly extensive readout. The Americans, as they always do, are much griefer one. But the two readouts do basically correspond with each other. And they make something very, very clear, which is that the Russians and the Americans are not just going to talk about Ukraine. They are talking about the full
Starting point is 00:04:20 normalization of relations between the United States and Russia. This is clearly now the policy of the Trump administration. The Russian readout makes this absolutely clear. It says that the Americans and the Russians are going to be in full discussion about how to reestablish full diplomatic contacts so that the embassies, the restrictions, the restrictions, that have been imposed on the embassies are going to be lifted. Restrictions that go back to Barack Obama's time, by the way, but which have got steadily worse since Obama's time. So they're going to be lifted so that the embassists can work properly.
Starting point is 00:05:09 And at the same time, and this is really quite extraordinary, and people have not noticed this, but the Russian readout clearly said that the, Americans and the Russians, Putin, sorry, Lavrov and Rubia, spoke with each other about lifting the unilateral restrictions imposed by the previous administration, which of course means the Biden administration, which impede trade, economic relations and investment between the two countries. Now, realistically, we're not talking about Russian investment in the United States,
Starting point is 00:05:55 though before 2014 there was some. We're talking about American investment in Russia, just saying. But what those words mean is that the Trump people are looking for a way to lift sanctions on Russia, not just some sanctions. They want to lift all sanctions, at least all American sanctions on Russia. They want to reestablish entirely the entire range of economic relations, as they were before 2014, before the start of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. And if you track what the Americans have been saying over the last couple of days,
Starting point is 00:06:44 If you look at the read-ups, both the American and the Russian ones, of the Trump-Putin call, what the Americans are looking to do is two things. Firstly, they don't want the Russians to go all out and attack the dollar. The Americans are very, very sensitive about this. Rubio made certain comments about this with changes of the international architecture, sanctions might become meaningless in five years anyway. Trump is constantly talking about the potential attack on the dollar. Putin has gone out of his way over the last couple of weeks to say that Russia did not opt out of the dollar. It was forced out of the dollar by the US,
Starting point is 00:07:36 by first Obama and then by Biden. So the Americans want to get the Russians, the Russians, start accepting dollars again, dollars for some of the oil they trade in, for example, at least for a couple of years until the United States complete its own economic transition. They want to slow any process that might lead to an all-out attack on the dollar. So that's one thing that the Americans are concerned about. I'm talking about American concerns now. And the other thing, of course, that they want to do is that they want to reestablish economic relations with Russia, trading and investment relations with Russia.
Starting point is 00:08:25 Because they are concerned that in the absence of those, Russia is drifting ever closer to China. And that is something that the Trump people, again, have made very clear. They've said it very openly. they're worried about. I think that there is a third factor. I've discussed it in various programs. We've discussed it in programs we've done together on the Duran. I think that Trump most definitely wants a general reduction in energy prices so that inflation in the United States comes under control. That also leads him to lift sanctions on trade exports of Russian energy products,
Starting point is 00:09:21 maybe not Europe, but to elsewhere in the world. So I think that that probably is a priority. Obviously, we're talking about reduction in energy costs. The Saudis will have a role to play, which makes it useful that these meetings are taking place in Saudi Arabia. And the that NBS is there. And I'm going to throw in another point, which I see that you've brought up on your own channel and which I want to make it absolutely clear. I agree with. Trump is a businessman. This is very much a government made up of business people. Trump is a businessman. Elon Musk is a businessman. All of these people are businessmen. They look at profit and loss. Ukraine at moment looks like a terrible loss. The United States, according to Trump, has shipped off to Ukraine
Starting point is 00:10:19 $380 billion of aid in one form or another. This is a huge loss on the ledger. He wants to recoup that. He wants to find ways to get some of that money back. Realistically, Ukraine is not going to provide that. The minerals from Ukraine are a mirage, as I think the American, Americans know, when they presented him, when they presented Zeletsky, I should say, with a demand that he hand over minerals to the United States, 50% of them, Zelensky refused. Where can the Americans recoup their losses? They can do it by coming to some good commercial agreement with Russia. That might be oil exploration rights in the Arctic, Exxon had a very good deal with the Russians before the 2014 crisis, which was then cancelled. Or it could be that the Americans might get into the Russian gas trade in some ways. It is not impossible.
Starting point is 00:11:29 After all, both the United States and Russia have a joint interest in liquefired natural gas. And coming back to the point that you paid on your program, there's that $300 billion. of Russian money frozen in Euroclear, there might be some discussion about that as well. It's not as if the Russians have not already written that money off some time ago, and they don't need him. Just saying. So there's got a lot to talk about with each other. Obviously, they're going to talk about Ukraine as well. These meet it. This needs. This needs. meeting in Riyadh, at which Steve Wyckoff will be playing, I suspect, the leading role. Remember, he is a businessman, too. He also thinks that this same transactional commercial ways,
Starting point is 00:12:26 Trump. The wolf. The wolf. Trump and the wolf, exactly, Trump and Musk and all of the others do. Anyway, he is going to be the lead figure on the American side. The major purpose of this meeting, I think, will be to prepare the ground for the Putin-Trump summit in perhaps a week's time, 10 days' time, certainly this month. Remember, we're on the 17th of February. Well, we're in middle February now, so there aren't, there isn't a lot of time if the meeting is going to happen this month. So they're going to have to work very hard to get that organized, to agree the agenda, to discuss the various talking points. Trump is talking about reductions in weapons,
Starting point is 00:13:14 in armaments, carving of budgets as between China, Russia, and the United States, all of that. So the Americans and the Russians have a lot to discuss. And of course, the Europeans are being kept away, just as Zelensky. Zelensky, just to quickly say, he's in the UAE at the moment,
Starting point is 00:13:34 which makes it look to me as if he's trying to gate crash, but we'll come to him in a moment. He's done it before. He's done it in the past. He showed up to Saudi Arabia uninvited. So do not be surprised if he just shows up to Saudi Arabia and knocks on MBS's door and says, hey, I'm here. What's going on?
Starting point is 00:13:52 Let's hang out. It would not surprise me. But I agree with you 100%. If the United States and Russia sit down together and discuss not only Project Ukraine, but everything when it comes to. to a full restoration of good diplomatic relations, then I think they'll be able to solve a lot of the problems, including Trump talking about getting 300 or 350 billion back
Starting point is 00:14:23 from an incompetent and terrible investment that he says Biden made. And I think that's important for Trump. Exactly. To come out with the message, Biden's incompetent, which he says over and over again. He lost 350 billion in Ukraine, and then for him to come back to the American people
Starting point is 00:14:37 and say, look what I've done. here, I've recouped our investment for the most part. So I think they'll be able to figure out solutions to all of these issues if they sit down together and really work on it. It's not going to be easy. No. It's going to take time. I believe it was Whitkoff who actually said to Fox News that, and I think he's right about this, it means that he's understanding. things very well, that he says the most important thing for the United States is to rebuild trust with Russia. And I think that's key with the dollar as well. You're right. Putin has said multiple times that it was Russia that got phased out of the dollar. They had no problem using the dollar,
Starting point is 00:15:31 but they've been barred from using the dollar. The United States somehow has to build that trust with Russia so that they can assure Russia that the U.S. dollar will not be weaponized again against them. Exactly. That's going to be a tough to do given everything that's happened. How do you do that and bigger picture? How does this all fit in with bricks? Because you do get mixed messages from Trump as well when it comes to bricks. He's come out with statements. saying that bricks is over. He's been trolling bricks when he says that he's not sure if China's even in bricks. I mean, obviously he knows that China's in bricks.
Starting point is 00:16:18 So he adds a little bit of trolling in there as well. But he also talks about reducing defense spending for China and Russia in the United States. He talks about, obviously, we've got the big meeting with Russia. He talks about getting along with Xi Jinping as well. So, I mean, it's been mixed messages. is, does Trump, does the United States see themselves perhaps doing something with Bricks as well? Modi was just in the United States and he met with Trump? Well, absolutely. Can I just say a few things about Bricks?
Starting point is 00:16:51 Firstly, Bricks is absolutely not over and they will continue to work on their financial and trade architecture. What Putin will have been able to reassure Trump about is that there is no Bricks plan. to set up at the moment a reserve currency, an alternative reserve currency. Now, we've discussed this. We discussed this at the time of the Kazan summit meeting. The BRIC states are not in a position at the moment to do that. They will move forward, however, with setting up their own financial and trading systems. But what Putin will be able to say to Trump is, look, we're going to do that.
Starting point is 00:17:36 But we're not going to weaponise this against you in the way that Biden weaponized the dollar against us. We're not going to try and exclude anyone. This isn't about excluding anyone or about interrupting trade. It's about giving ourselves some kind of reinsurance, that reassurance and insurance that this kind of thing that the Biden people did is not going to happen again. Now, from a Russian point of view, not only is Bricks going to continue, but it is non-negotiable. I think that is something that needs to be clearly understood, and I think the Americans probably do understand it. For one thing, the Russians are not going to outrage their major partners, China, India, Brazil and others by walking away from the bricks.
Starting point is 00:18:28 That's absolutely not going to happen, especially given that it was the Russians who organized the Kazami. and came up with most of these ideas. So Bricks is not negotiable. It is going to continue, but it's not a threat, a direct economic threat to the United States. So the dollar will remain the preeminent reserve currency for at least the next four years, whilst Donald Trump is president, probably it will continue to remain. a key reserve currency for longer than that also. The Russians will be happy to sell oil in dollars again if they have some reassurance that their money isn't going to be impounded and frozen
Starting point is 00:19:20 and all of that sort of thing all over again. Because why wouldn't they at the end of the day? I mean, it makes sense for them to do that. They want to be able to trade freely around the world. And with God was absolutely right. The whole business is about restoring trust, giving the Russians reassurances and guarantees that we're not going to go down this crazy road of sanctions, and outright economic wars and all of those things that the Biden people did back in February 2022 when they were talking about cratering the Russian economy, halving Russia's economy, halving Russia's GDP, causing an economic crisis in Russia, turning the rubble to rubble,
Starting point is 00:20:11 engineering regime change there. If you remember, that was the rhetoric then. So the Russians will be one reassurance is that that is never going to happen. And what the Americans at this point can say, and it's not going to be enough, but the Russians will listen and they will take note of it, is that, of course, if sanctions are lifted, the US lift sanctions, the Europeans are going to have to lift sanctions because it would be ridiculous for the Europeans to persist with sanctions without the Americans. It would make no sense. European business would be up in arms if we continue. If sanctions are lifted, realistically, they are not going to be imposed again. We've already had an economic war. Russia sailed through.
Starting point is 00:21:03 it with higher economic growth. European, Europe has been hammered as a result of those sanctions. European businesses have been crushed. Germany is deindustrializing fast. There's no conceivable way that European business people, political leaders, those that have two brain cells to rub together I'm going to want to repeat this experiment, which failed so catastrophically. If sanctions stay, then obviously we're in a different situation because then the people who want to keep them going in Europe and who want to escalate them are still in the driver's seat. But if sanctions are lifted, those people, Ursula, Beirbach, Schultz, all of them become completely discredited. They launched an economic war. The Europeans paid the price and they failed.
Starting point is 00:22:10 And China, India, Bricks. I mean, do you see any cooperation there between Bricks in the United States or is this going to be? Now, this is where it becomes very interesting, but it's not for today or tomorrow. It might start to happen in one, five, ten years time. But we're talking about the great powers. China, Russia are great powers. India might eventually be. The United States indisputably is a great power. Would it not make complete sense for these countries? Brazil might one day also become a great power by them. Might it not make one sense one day for these four, maybe five great powers to work out something with each other? Might they not trade also with each other? It might be an idea for the United States to start engaging with some of the infrastructure
Starting point is 00:23:09 that the bricks is creating and try to shape it in its own interests. Now, that's not going to happen tomorrow. They're not going to discuss this when they meet on the 18th of February. They're not going to discuss this when Putin and Trump meet. But, and of course, a lot depends on how politics in the United States develops. over the next few years. But let us say, just for the sake of my argument, that in 28 we get President J.D. Vance. I can see J.D. Vance, perhaps practical man that he is, very business-minded, friend of Peter Thiel, friend of Elon Musk, person who's concerned about the
Starting point is 00:23:58 condition of industrial workers in America saying, look, this is a structure which we can work with. If we become involved in it, we can adapt it to our own interests, maybe in some shape and some form we could join to. Now, as I said, this isn't going to happen today. It's not going to happen tomorrow. It might not ever have. I'm not, you know, got a crystal ball here. But I can see if the Americans and the Russians come.
Starting point is 00:24:28 to some understanding, if the Americans and the Chinese eventually come to some kind of understanding that we could get there eventually. All right, so let's talk about the here and now, which is Project Ukraine, and what's going on in Ukraine, which is going to be the main topic of the discussions between the United States and Russia. What is the fear that Russia will give out too many concessions to the United States will give in to many of the concessions that say the United States may present to Russia in the negotiations. And I say that because I'm working from past history. I'm working from what happened in 2014-15 with the Baltovaux and Merkel going to Russia
Starting point is 00:25:16 and begging Putin to call off the, to convince the Donbass militia to stop fighting and call off the conflict, which led to the misagreements, which we now know that. in the Minsk agreements, which was very favorable for Ukraine. We won't get into the details. Everyone knows the details. But we now know from interviews with not only Merkel, but Poroshenko and Hollande, that the Minsk agreements were simply a ployed to gain more time and rearm the Ukraine military so that they can have another go at Russia.
Starting point is 00:25:52 But Putin, he pushed the Minsk agreements forward. He agreed to them. and Russia, for lack of a better word, Russia got deceived, got duped by Merkel, by the Europeans, by Ukraine, by the United States, whatever. And then you have the 2002 Istanbul agreements and talks, which appear to have had some sort of agreement initialed or some sort of framework of an agreement. That was initialed by the Ukraine and the Russian sides. I believe Lavrov was part of those negotiations. where once again, it was very favorable towards Ukraine,
Starting point is 00:26:32 what we know about those 2022 Istanbul documents. And Russia even provided a goodwill gesture, where they removed their military from Kiev and from other urban areas in order to further get the framework agreement in place so that they can move towards some sort of a conclusion of the special military operation. So Russia made many, many many favorable, very favorable concessions to Ukraine and to the collective West in the past. And each time they appear to have been burned by these concessions. So the big fear, I believe, is this time around what will happen.
Starting point is 00:27:18 I know that there is this fear, and I know a lot of people talk about it. I've been following what the Russians have been saying. I see no. hint, no sign up to now that the Russians are prepared to go down that and start down that road and start making those kind of concessions again. They're also looking at the rhetoric coming out from Europe. They're looking at the rhetoric coming up from Ukraine. They see that the people in Europe and in Ukraine are completely unrecognized to any kind of negotiating process. they are not prepared, I'm sure, to go down that process again. I think what we're going to see, and this is my own guess,
Starting point is 00:28:00 we're not going to see an agreement for a ceasefire or anything like that over the next couple of days. I don't think Putin is going to agree to that when he meets Trump in a couple of days' time. I mean, I just think this is most unlikely. What I think that the Russians will say is, look, We've always said that we're prepared to sit down and talk with Ukraine. We need to have, we're perfectly willing to negotiate with the Ukrainians.
Starting point is 00:28:29 We can't negotiate with Zelensky because he's an impossible person, as we all know. And we all know also that he's passed this idiotic decree, which he can't himself now rescind, which forbids him from negotiating with us, despite the fact that he's now trying to, to walk that back. And his own constitutional status is, well, there is a massive question mark over it also. But we are prepared to negotiate. We are prepared to put together a delegation to meet with the Ukrainians. If the Ukrainians are prepared to do that, if the Americans want us to talk with the Ukrainians, we are prepared to talk with the Ukrainians. But what we are going to suggest, and I think that the Americans are already saying that they will agree to this, I think Kellogg actually confirmed this, is that it will be a negotiation between the Russians, sorry, and the Ukrainians. It will not be a direct negotiation between the Americans and the Russians. It will not be a direct negotiation between the Americans and the Russians about how to finish the war in Ukraine.
Starting point is 00:29:42 Ukraine and the Americans could still be involved. They could still be, they can have some kind of mediation role, maybe, or honest broker role, something of that kind. But it'll be the Russians and the Ukrainians. And I think that the Russians will make no concessions because, and will be under no pressure to, because they'll be dealing with the Ukrainians, not the Americans. And I think that is how Putin and Trump are going to show. this. So they're going to say, look, we could sit down with the Ukrainians, let's do it in
Starting point is 00:30:18 Riyadh, or maybe in Doha, or someplace like that, and we'll take it from there. That's, I think, all that's going to happen. But how does that work? I mean, given everything that we know about Istanbul Plus, which is a phrase that you've coined, does it not, Istanbul Plus is not the official name that Russia gives to the agreement, to the minimum terms that Putin. has spelled out, but given what we know about Istanbul Plus, which is, for example, the four oblasts in their entirety. Yes.
Starting point is 00:30:52 Yes. Being a part of the Russian Federation, which would mean that Ukrainian military, which is currently in parts of these four oblasts, would have to leave. I mean, practically, how would that work for Ukraine? Wouldn't that lead to a government collapse? Wouldn't that lead to Zelenskyy collapse? How would that work if you get to the point where Russia is speaking with Ukraine on the basis of Istanbul Plus as a minimum, as a minimum? Well, that's the point because, of course, if the Russians and the Ukrainians meet in, as I say, Doha or Riyadh or Riyadh or wherever, the Russians will put before the Ukrainians, Istanbul Plus.
Starting point is 00:31:41 And that's what they will do. They won't need to put Istanbul plus to the Americans, which might be awkward for the Americans, but they'll be able to do it directly to the Ukrainians. Zelensky is going to reject that. And the fighting is going to continue, and the Russians are going to continue advancing, as would happen whenever there is a negotiation like this. Now, at some point, the Ukrainians would have to accept Istanbul Plus, and probably more, because the Russians are gaining control of more territory in Kharkov region every day now. And they're talking, by the way, increasingly about how they're liberating this territory, which is an interesting change of language, just to say, when it was Khad Khad Khadrughrigian, the Russians used to say before that they're capturing villages. Now they're talking about how they're liberating villages. So with every day, the demands will get tougher and the Ukrainians will resist.
Starting point is 00:32:48 And the way this ends ultimately is that there will be a change of government in Kiev. I don't want to say regime change, but that's what it amounts to. You can already see who the Russians are preparing to take over. It is victim at Vetschuk. He has been giving interview after interview in Moscow. The Russians are going out of their way to raise his profile, and they clearly envisage him as the eventual new leader of Ukraine, just saying. And Zelensky will have to step down.
Starting point is 00:33:26 The Americans have lost confidence in him. Trump already spoke about how his poll ratings, his popularity in Ukraine is collapsing. And there's been an astonishing article in the Hill, very important American magazine, which calls him the Mad King of Kiev. So there we go. So we can see that gradually, when not so gradually, quite quickly, Zelensky will be walked off the scene. So as I said, Medvedevitch, there's elections, Medvedevich takes over, he signs the treaty,
Starting point is 00:34:05 he gets the four, the Russians get, the four regions, they deal with Medvedevich. They can trust Medvedevichot. It will be more than Istanbul plus, I think. I've been on this. But why would that be a problem for the Americans? I was going to ask you that very question. Would this be a problem for the U.S.? No, it wouldn't. And we go back to what you also said, is the Russians then make a payoff to the Americans, which could be all kinds of different things, you know, roll in gas industry, or oil industry or who knows what. I mean, you know, all kinds of things going on in Russia.
Starting point is 00:34:44 I know it sounds bizarre, but I can imagine a set out. Well, they've worked together in the past. We've worked together in the past. I mean, they've had joint ventures in the past. Why can't they have joint ventures again? Why can't they do that again? And, you know, about the $300 billion. You lift the freeze on the $300 billion.
Starting point is 00:35:06 billion, gets paid back to the Russians. The Russians then do a sweetheart deal with the Americans. They give them $300 billion. I could, it would have to be dressed up and explained in all sorts of ways. But again, this is the kind of thing that diplomats are there to do. They can be done. These things can be done. As I said, it's not as if the Russians did not write off that money some time ago. I'm not saying it's going to happen, by the way. I'm not saying want to make that clear, and there are legal obstacles, and the Russians will be worried about creating precedence and that sort of thing. But ultimately, what the deal is between the Russians and the Ukrainians, between a possible future President Medvedevichu and Russia, that really
Starting point is 00:35:57 doesn't concern the United States. Okay, my final question is the demilitarization, the denatification component. How do you deal with that? And specifically, how do you deal with the West of Ukraine? You've had some comments from Orban in Hungary. And they've mentioned briefly about their interest or their stake, their role to play when it comes to ethnic Hungarians in the West of Ukraine. But I mean, is there some sort of a component that could work there as well if you do have a Medvedchuk and you have a type of federal autonomous republic of Ukraine. Can you have Orban and some of the European countries help stabilize the West of Ukraine, which I've said it many, many times in the past. To me, that is one of the root causes is that banderite ideology,
Starting point is 00:36:55 which is so ripe in the West of Ukraine. I mean, that is one of the big problems, an ideology, which under the guidance of Obama, Biden, Newland, and all these people gained prominence in Kiev. Correct. Absolutely. That is a huge problem. But, of course, if you're able to get Medvedchuk's president of Ukraine, and if Medvedevichuk is able to consolidate control, not easy to do, by the way. I mean, he would have personal safety concerns, just saying. But if he was able to, if he was able to, if you were able to achieve that, then of course, Medvedsha could get help from the Russians within Ukraine itself, something which previous Ukrainian leaders never were prepared to consider. Yanukovych wasn't prepared to do it.
Starting point is 00:37:48 Lukutjima wasn't prepared to do it. You could pass laws. You could ban these people. You could do things which just haven't been possible up to now. And as for Western Ukraine, Putin has made it very much. very clear many times that he really doesn't want to go there, that the Russians don't really want to go there. If the Hungarians want their bit and the Romanians want their bit, they're welcome to it. I personally can imagine a situation where Western Ukraine secedes and forms its own state.
Starting point is 00:38:20 It's not widely known, but right at the beginning of 2014, whilst the Maidan crisis was still playing out and underwe. but it looked as if Yanukovych would remain president of Ukraine. Western Ukraine, Galitia, if you like, took the first steps towards secession. So they might secede, form their own state, very unhappy and difficult play entity, I would have thought, landlocked and all of that, but it would solve the problem from a Russian point of view. All right. Do you have anything else to add to close out there with the video? Well, I think we're very complicated.
Starting point is 00:39:08 Well, it is very, very complicated road ahead. And there's no guarantee that this will work. I mean, this is, I think, the other thing to say. But it's not impossible. We've seen negotiations. diplomacy take place before, in conflict places? The Americans and the Russians have negotiated successfully in the past. There's no objective reason why they can't find a way through again now. The key difference between the events of today and the events of, say, the late 80s,
Starting point is 00:39:55 1990s, 2000s, and all of that is that the Russians have demonstrated to the Americans that they're strong. Before the Americans saw the Russians as weak. Now the Americans see that they are strong. They see that Russia has a strong, effective and purposeful leadership in Moscow. It's not Putin and – sorry, it's not Gorbachev and Jocin anymore or anything like that. That leadership isn't going anywhere. that Russia has a big, diversified, strong economy able to withstand the sanctioned shock, that Russia has built up a whole network of friendships and alliances with many, many countries,
Starting point is 00:40:40 and that the Russian armed forces are extremely powerful and becoming more powerful again. That changes the entire dynamic. It means that the relationship between Russia and the United States is much closer. to be like what it was in the 1960 and early 1970s, when there was the previous detente between the superpowers. So we are looking at a radically different picture from the one that we were in three, five, ten years ago when the Americans were saying to,
Starting point is 00:41:25 themselves. We're only dealing with a one-dimensional country. Putin is deeply unpopular. Navalny will be the next leader of Russia. I mean, I remember articles about that. That it's a gas station masquerading as a country that its army is inefficient and corrupt and the soldiers are drunk half the time. All of those myths have now fallen away. And the Americans know that they're dealing with a strong country led by a strong leader, which is a superpower once more. And Trump acknowledged as much, actually. Absolutely. He said that Russia is strong.
Starting point is 00:42:05 That's what he said. And just a final thought, even if they can't come to an immediate conclusion on Ukraine, it should not jeopardize the rest of their negotiations and discussions. Exactly. They've got a lot of important topics outside of Ukraine. They've got an awful lot of important topics. I mean, the Americans are still talking. or some America, I guess I suspect this is Kellogg, that they're still talking about a
Starting point is 00:42:29 ceasefire by Easter. I think they're still very optimistic, actually. But anyway, we are moving closer. We're taking the first steps towards a normalization of relations between America and Russia. and you can see why it would be in American interests for that normalization to happen. I mean, the very last point I want to make is this. Everything that has been done now is objectively in American interests. That is what gives one hope that this might eventually happen.
Starting point is 00:43:13 The Nicon project was not in American. interests. It was all based on utopian fantasies, unrealizable ideas. I mean, it was terrible anyway, on its own terms. And it has failed. Given how completely it has failed, America needs to rethink. And give Trump credit. That's what he's doing. All right. We will end it there. The durand. Dot, locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitchy, telegram, Rockfin, Finn, and X. Go to the Durand shop, pick up some merch, like what we are wearing in this video update today. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.

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