The Duran Podcast - Romania elections. Macron one step closer to Odessa

Episode Date: May 21, 2025

Romania elections. Macron one step closer to Odessa

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what happened in Romania. We have had the do-over elections. They have concluded in the second round. It was Nikosur Dam, who ended up winning by a large margin, 54%. He ended up improving on his first round vote by a whole lot. I don't know if this is, if what he accomplished is actually statistically possible. True. But it happened.

And Simeon pretty much got nothing, no, no bounce, no improvement from his first round, from the first round election to the second round election. Pretty much everyone that voted in the second round went Dan, who is the EU's Pixo. Long story short, the EU got what it wanted. It took them a couple of elections, canceling the elections. TikTok lies, Russian meddling lies. But they ended up getting their guy in power and Macron. It is believed, and this is according to Pavel Durev of Telegram, it is believed that France

and Macron played a very important. role in getting their guy in office in Romania. So the NATO, the big NATO base will continue to be built. Romania's support for Project Ukraine will continue. Not that Simeon might have changed things up with NATO. It's hard to tell if he would have changed so much with regards to NATO. But there we have it. Romania stays on course and will remain loyal to the European Union and loyal to France and Macron. Yes. Indeed, I think you've started it up very well. Now, I think a few things to say about the election, when we got the first, you know,

the results of the first stage of the election, I mean, it looked to me that Simeon was absolutely going to win. I mean, he got 41% of the vote. Dan got only 21%. It really didn't make any logical sense to think at that time, or so it seemed to me that Simeon would not win. One can argue about how that came about and whether it was statistically possible and what can ask lots and lots of questions. But I think one thing has become absolutely clear over the last two weeks and also since the result was published that Simeon is no Giorgesco. It was a point we made in our program when we discussed this election before, that Simeon ultimately is himself a part of the political system in Romania.

He is not a challenger coming from outside the political system in the way that Yorgiasco unquestionably is. So whilst he's, to some extent, aligned himself with Jorgiascu, though not on key matters, like the EU and NATO, where Simeon ultimate looks like he's going to take a pro-NATO and pro-EU position or would have taken if he'd been elected. he's he's not in the end Simeon is not in the end going to change anything would have not changed anything fundamental about Romania and I by the way I read a long article in Unheard which is a British magazine which said that you know the second the political class in Romania was pretty relaxed about the idea of a Simeon victory if it had

happened, they would have just, they felt that things would have gone on pretty much as always. The EU as well. The EU is very relaxed. And I think we noted in our video where we talk about Romania that Simeon was something akin to a Maloney. Exactly. Exactly. In fact, he even said as much, by the way, just to say, I mean, he talked, the one other

EU leader he referenced as being like unto himself was actually Maloney. I mean, just to say. So I think that probably generally lost Simeon's support. I mean, a lot of people who might have voted for him would have said, well, look, you know, is he really that different? Is he really someone who's going to make the change we yearn for and want? And that's probably one reason why he lost. And it is absolutely the reason why he accepted.

the result immediately, which is one suspects that had it been Gorgiascu faced with a result like this, which I don't believe, by the way, it would have been a result like this. I mean, bear in mind that in the second round, which was cancelled, opinion polls suggested that Gorgiasco could have won 60% of the vote. the landslide. But let's assume that this kind of result had happened with Gorgasco. I do think Gorgasco would have accepted it in quite the tame way that Sivion has done. So that's what I want to say about this. It is absolutely a victory for the EU centre.

They've got exactly the person they wanted in Romania. Dan has a very long history. of being an ultra loyalist in terms of the EU, in terms of NATO, in terms of policy towards Russia. He's somebody who's completely signed up to the whole Ukraine project as far as I can see. And he is clearly, and this is an important point to make, clearly close to Macrole and to France, and it's become increasingly clear that the major public master of events in Romania has been Macron and France. And to people who are familiar with Romanian history, that is not actually quite so surprising because Romania has a very, very long history of very, very close relations

with France. In the interwar years, for example, Bucharest was referred to as the Paris of the Balkans. I mean, it was seen as a very French place. Romanian is a very French place. Romanian is a, is a Latin language, more similar to Italian than French, but there is that level of affinity. There's been much overlap between Romanian and Italian, Romanian and French intellectuals, Yonnescu, Enescu, the composer, people of that kind, very heavily focused on France. So it's not surprising that the French have been able to draw, on that and have been able to wield a great deal of influence in Romania. And Macron's interest in Romania is not difficult to see either.

It centres on his own obsession, which is Project Ukraine. He's got French troops undoubtedly in Romania. He's been thinking about sending those French troops in Romania, west. to occupy Adessa, which is not that far from the Romanian border. And he and NATO need this big base in Romania in order to keep NATO fully engaged in the conflict in Ukraine. And of course, also to project power in the Black Sea to support. to support Ukrainian naval operations, such as they are in the Black Sea,

and to complicate Russian control of the Black Sea. So for Macron, who is obsessed with Ukraine, Romania was an absolutely key piece, and he wasn't prepared to let it fall. We call him Little Napoleon, Macron, but maybe there's more to that nickname than than we're seeing. Maybe that is a very accurate nickname for Macron. Is Macron's plan to create a South European colonies for France? I mean, France has a lot of power, exerts a lot of power and influence over Greece. I know that as a fact. A lot of power and influence over Greece. France does have that. Also on

a military level. They have influence and power over a lot of countries in the south of Europe. We talked about France and Italy in a video we recorded a couple of days ago. Of course, we talked about Le Pen and Salvini, but why should it be any different for Macron and Maloney, even though Maloney does not like Macron? It's obvious that Maloney hates Macron, but he does seem to, and now we have Romania. Yes. And it does look like much of Southern Europe, or at least Macon sees Southern Europe as a type of region that France can project power, especially now that France was kicked out of Africa, was defeated in Africa and kicked out of Africa, much to the embarrassment of France and Macron. And then, of course, we have Moldova, which I'm sure Macon sees Moldova as a key piece

to Project Ukraine and to Odessa. I mean, is Macaron looking at this as France will basically control much of southern Europe, Maloney being a bit of a problem, but maybe he'll find a way to bypass Maloney, make up with Maloney, I don't know. And then he has Greece, then he has Romania, and of course the ultimate prize, the jewel in Macron's Napoleon crown would be the capture. of Odessa? Oh, yes.

I'm sure he has all of these grandiose plans. I mean, I really do. I mean, I think he does think in this incredible Napoleonic way. And I think he absolutely does think in this way. You know, you've got Greece and now you've got Romania, and then you get Adessa and you go create your Balkan, Ante. By the way, I ought to say that in the interwar years, France actually did achieve exactly what you've described.

There was a period of time when there was the so-called Balkan Entente in the 1920s and 30s, which is aligned with France, and France forged all these alliances with various small states in central and eastern Europe. In those days, the threat was supposed to be from Germany, but it was also from Russia too. So, you know, he's trying to revive. He gets along with Albania? Albania, exactly. We saw that the other day. Exactly.

He's trying to revive all of that. could see that he is. And of course, he knows that Maloney won't like it. And Maloney won't like it, by the way, because if we're talking about Albania and Romania, Italy has always had a belief that if these countries are going to be friendly with any big European country, they should be friends with Italy, which in terms of Albania was the former colonial ruler, and in terms of Romania arguably has more overlap culturally with Romania than France does. So Maloney won't like it. And of course, the Russians will hate it. And the Russians will, and that's where the problem is. Because, of course, in this territory, Russia potentially is vastly more powerful than France.

So, you know, he can play this game. Playing these games in Romanians. And I'm sure he played the key role, by the way, just to say, as Simeon, by the way, has basically all but said. Playing this kind of game in Romania, where the political class is basically on your side is the easy part of it. From now on, it gets far, far more difficult because he's up against Vladimir Putin and the Russians. It does feel as if Germany, in the context of the EU, Germany has been neutered in a way. I mean, Schultz was not a powerful figure, a stupid figure. In a way, Mertz is no better. It does look like Germany does not have the influence that it had under Merkel.

That's obvious it doesn't have the influence in the EU that it had with Merkel. And Macron is asserting himself as the emperor of the EU, as the leader of the EU. And of course, Ursula Kayakhalis, obviously, they're mocked throughout Europe. So Macron is the guy. And maybe he realizes this. He definitely realizes that this is his time to be the man who runs Europe. Yes. He absolutely does.

And you absolutely well. I mean, I should say that historically in modern times, the country that has dominated Central Europe has actually been Germany. I mean, Romania in the last 30 years, the country's looked, it's looked to has been Germany. Not Italy, certainly not France. The Germans have been enormously powerful in Romania. There are a lot of Romanian people working in Germany, just to say. I mean, this has been the, but this was always based on Germany being the economic powerhouse of Europe. And it was that which gave someone like Merkel the power and influence over a place like Romania that Germany once had.

Now, Germany no longer looks like an economic powerhouse. And the leadership of Germany looks disorganized and weak. and frankly, out of touch, which is, I think, what you can say about both Schultz and Mertz. And one also gets a sense that they don't really care. I mean, once upon the time, in Merkel's day, Merkel would not have been happy if Macron was sticking his all into Central European affairs. One gets the sense, I get the sense that Mertz doesn't even think about this. This doesn't even register on, you know, his radar screen anywhere.

So in this absence with the Germans out of the picture, this is indeed Macron's chance. He's going to go into Romania, he's going to go into Albania. He's probably, as you rightly said, he's got a long historical connection with Greece that he can build on. He's going to be Napoleon. He's going to be Julius Caesar. he's going to run the Balkans and then as I said he's going to unite the Balkans and

do what? Take on the Russians by himself. Odessa. Odessa is obviously the end game. But the Russians will never again

maybe he doesn't really get that but the Russians will never let the Romanians and the French into Odessa. I should say that the French actually occupied Odessa for a brief period during the Russian Civil War that followed immediately after the Russian Revolution. And even then, a very weakened Russia still found the strength to boot the French out.

So I've no doubt they will again. And I believe, just to wrap up the video, I believe when it comes to Project Ukraine and Zelensky, yes, the British are very much involved and yes, they are very much running. Zelensky and controlling Zelensky. But I do believe that France runs and controls Zelensky even more. Yeah. I think even to the point where Zelensky's security detail is not British. I think there were a lot of people that thought it was British. Yeah, it's French. It's from what I understand. So really, it is Macron who's controlling and protecting Zelensky. At the end of the day, it is Macaron that's holding Zelensky up, not Stammer.

I'm not saying that Stammer isn't playing apart, and the British are absolutely playing apart. But Macron is really the guy behind Zelensky. Absolutely. This is absolutely right, because, of course, again, this is all part of Macron's great Napoleonic plan. I mean, he ultimately, I think he wants all of Ukraine as part of this new French empire. If you can't get the hold of Ukraine, you'll certainly settle for Addessa.

And in the meantime, he's propping up Zelensky or he can. Remember, it was Macron who first proposed sending European troops to Ukraine after the fall of Afdefka last year. Final question. Does Romania, Moldova, do they get pushed into some sort of a conflict with Russia as Ukraine crumbles? It's entirely possible. I mean, I think that the Moldovan government is no position to conduct such a conflict because Moldova is such a divided society.

But Romania, possibly. I mean, I would say something else. I mean, there is a very long history of anti-Russian sentiment in Romania, which someone like Macron could work up. So it is not impossible by any means if Ukraine collapses and the Russians reach the western borders and start, you know, pressing on Woldova and all those places, that Romania could find itself, well, could decide, or his leadership might decide, to become involved in some sort of great plan or project against Russia. That is, by the way, exactly what Gorgiaska

was basically warning against. Gorgiaska was saying, you know, I'm Romanian, I want to, focus on Romania. I don't want to be involved in these games. And it was a compelling story, going back to Simeon and why he lost the election. Simeon wasn't saying that. He was sort of suggesting that maybe Romania might still be involved in these games, even if he's elected president. Yeah. There was just to wrap up the video, Moldovan MP, who was saying that, that a, that It's time to annex parts of Odessa so that they can have access to more of the Black Sea. And we're going to hear more and more of that over the next few weeks and months as the Russian offensive gets more powerful. I think that at some point, as I said, there will be a crisis. It could be a crisis within Romania.

It could be a crisis within Moldova or it could be a crisis involving the Romanians, the Moldovians. and the French against the Russians. The key thing to say again is that none of these parties either individually or taken together can take on the Russians. The only way they could do that is if they got the Americans on side. And Donald Trump has made it absolutely clear that he doesn't want to be involved in that. Yeah. And of course, transdistria. And transnational. Which is there. Yeah. That could trigger something. Yeah. All right. We will end the the video there at the durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, Bitchu, Telegraph, and X. Go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update.

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