The Duran Podcast - Russia building up strength. Collective West hope strategy

Episode Date: November 23, 2023

Russia building up strength. Collective West hope strategy

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine. And Avdyevka, I think that is the big story. And there are Russian advances throughout the entire front line. Even the Institute for the Study of War has had to admit as much, erasing effectively the entire five months of the Ukraine, spring-summer, counter-effectual. offensive, whatever you want to call it. The Russians are now on the move and a lot of focus is on Afdefka, but there are a lot of other areas where the Russians are making progress. So what is the situation on the front lines? Well, I think you just summed it up. The Russians are

advancing right across the front lines. They're doing so in mid-autum, at the time the worst period of the Rasputitsa, the month's season. So these are in difficult conditions for an army to be able to advance. And nonetheless, and despite that, they are advancing. And they seem to be advancing, in my opinion, very rapidly, relatively speaking, near Avdewka. Avdavka, we were always told, was one of the most heavily fortified positions that Ukraine had created along the front lines. And what's happening, or so it seems to me, is that this position is now being steadily and incrementally encircled. And this is happening at a much faster speed than I think most people anticipated when this current offensive near Avdewka began at the start of October. So the Russians

some weeks ago captured this thing called the waste heap. This is the slag heap near the Coke plant near to Avdewka. That gave them an observation platform because it's high ground that they could use to monitor what was going on right across Avdhafka. They've now apparently been able to penetrate into the Coke factory, which is located quite close to it.

They haven't yet made a concerted effort to storm it, but they are pushing hard on the Coke factory. Further south, which is the other side of the pincers that's moving. They are advancing apparently also pretty fast through an industrial zone that is located there. I saw a report yesterday which said that they now control the entire industrial zone,

bar two buildings. So they've cleared that again very fast. And historically, industrial zones, places where there's factories and, industrial units have tended to be amongst the most difficult to capture by the Russians during the war. I mean, these can be converted into sort of natural hill boxes or fortresses, just mean, minor fortresses. So they can be easy to defend, but the Russians seem to have cleared this area very fast. And if we go a bit further west, where the Russians seem to be creating,

a sort of wider, a broader encirclement. So we have the narrow encirclement around Avdevka itself, the advance to the Coke factory from the north and through the industrial zone to the south. We also have a push further north along a railway track. This village, there's been one particular village, which is beyond the railway track called Stéoppovoyer. which the Russians apparently pushed the Ukrainians out of.

There was a report last night, might be premature, that the Russians have now entered that village themselves and are in the process of taking it over. And beyond that, there's another village called Berdici, which if the Russians capture, would apparently complicate Ukrainian supply routes into Avdeca very considerably. But the other thing is, there's this, railway track, they're pushing up the railway track, they're clearing more and more of the railway

track. There was an article about six days ago in El Pais, the Spanish newspaper, in which there was a Ukrainian soldier who was defending this area. And he actually explained to the Spanish journalist the importance of this railway track. He said this is a natural fortification. If we lose it, it will be a disaster. If we fully lose control of it, it would be a disaster. The Russians can send their armour beyond the railway track, and the Battle of Dvdewka is at that point effectively lost. Well, that is exactly what is happening. And that interview, all of seven days ago, between the Spanish journalist and the Ukrainian soldier took place in a village, not along this railway track and the Russians are now approaching that particular village. So Avdyevka, you're starting to see

Ukrainian positions, or so it seems to me, start to crumble. And this happening, really, given how fortified, how heavily fortified this position is, it's happening fast. Now, there's also bad news for the Ukrainians pretty much everywhere else. The, the, there was, there was, there's, there's, there's an area called the Vremivka Salient, a Breivka ledge, which is the sort of hilly area near a river valley. It was where the Ukrainians began their offensive on the 4th of June. Back in August, they claimed to have captured two important villages there, Starromayosk and Urajanue. the Russians appear to be in the process of retaking both. Again, it's a hard fight, but they are pushing back there.

They've recaptured a whole string of other villages in the same area. And in Bahmert, where there's been this endless battle, that's been going on now for over a year, the Russians, remember the Wagner Organization, Pregojohn, captured Bachmert in May. the Ukrainians then counterattack. They've been trying to retake at least the western part of Bachman. Well, the Russians are now pushing back.

They've recovered all the ground that the Ukrainians, or are in the process of recovery, all the ground, that the Ukrainians spent at lost thousands of men since May, trying to recapture. And it looks like they're poised now to advance beyond the positions that the Wagner, it's organised. had captured during the process of capturing Bachmuth itself. So the Russians are, as you absolutely rightly said, as the ISW also says,

now advancing all across the front line. And they're doing so fast. And what gets the sense of Ukrainian defense is crumbling in many places. I mean, they're still putting up a fight. They haven't given up. but there's more and more reports of more and more Ukrainian soldiers disobeying orders to attack, other Ukrainian soldiers handing themselves in. We hear more and more reports about Ukraine suffering a disastrous shortage of artillery.

The Spanish journalist, Nerevdivka, was told by Ukrainian soldier there, that whereas in the summer he was firing, his artillery unit was firing 150 shells a day, Now they're down to just 15, and the guns, the barrels of their guns are so worn out that the accuracy of their guns has just collapsed. And this seems to be a problem that they have right across the battlefronts, that they're short of men. There's talk about a new massive conscription drive. They're short of men. They're short of machines. They're trying to husband a few machines that they have left.

they haven't committed the Bradley's, sorry, the Abrams tanks so far to any battle. They've pulled back the Challenger tanks. They're trying to hold them back. But overall, the situation looks pretty awful for Ukraine. And the trend of the Russian advance appears to be accelerated. So what happens to the Zelensky administration should Avdivka fall? I think it will be a major psychological blow because they've talked up Avdavka as this great fortress.

They said the same about Bachman, of course, but perhaps they've said that even more about Abderfka. Avdaevka is close to Donnet City, and it was supposed to be the gateway for the Ukrainians eventually to recapture Donnet City. I mean, that seems far-fetched now, but before... Well, they've never admitted that Bahmwood has been... taken by the Russians.

That is also true, actually. They've never admitted that. I've never admitted that Bachman is lost, but of course, we all know it has been. But Avedevka, if anything, is symbolically even more important because it's close to Donet City. And again, we've had all of these reports,

which I'm sure going to be denied in a few weeks' time, just as they were with Bachman. But we've had lots of reports about the strategic importance of Afdeafka. They've appeared in the Western media that sits on top of the dense system of communications that the Ukrainians can't send troops to various places without passing them through Avdavka and a lot of Abderivka will open the way for further Russian

advances in the future. I remember reading exactly all that about Bachmert and then of course Bachman fell and then we were told that Bachmert is of no strategic importance. I'm sure they will say the same about Avdavka. But the fact is, and we shouldn't forget this, they have said it. I mean, I've read military people, Western military people, saying that the loss of Abderfka will be not just a major psychological blow, but a major military blow as well. And by the way, I mean, I've just summed up places where the major advances are happening. It looks like the Russians are also pushing in all kinds of other places too. There's still a lot of fighting going on in the north, Kupiansk, near Kupiansk and other places as well. So a Russian, a Russian,

advance all along the front lines and a darkening of the mood both in Ukraine itself and amongst Ukraine's Western backers. Yeah, it is a Russian advance, but it doesn't seem like this is the big advance that many analysts are talking about or are expecting. It still seems like the Russians are focused on demilitarizing Ukraine, annihilating the UK. military and just keeping the pressure on the Ukraine military and creating types of of caldrons with openings where where they understand that Zelensky will continue to push Ukraine military into those caldrons to be annihilated. So it seems like the Russian strategy is working out very well. What's if you want to comment on that and a question

about U.S. funding for Ukraine. We don't know if they're going to manage to get, if the Biden White House is going to get $60 billion to Ukraine or not, they're trying to bundle it with the Israeli aid and the border and Taiwan in that big funding package. It's going to come up for a vote soon. And eventually they're going to get some money to Ukraine. I don't know how much.

Maybe it'll be all $60 billion. Maybe it won't be. but do you think that this money makes will make any difference at all? No, we're making keeping Ukraine afloat. Well, it will make a difference in the sense that without the money, I mean, Ukraine will be in an absolutely impossible and unsustainable situation. And it will, you know, the war will end much more quickly if the United States stops providing the money. But the important thing to understand is that even if the United States provides all the money that Biden has asked for,

$61 billion, which at the moment seems unlikely, but it's not a possibility we should discount. There's probably still a majority in Congress that wants aid for Ukraine. But even if they do, it's more money thrown on top of lots of money that has already been given to Ukraine and hasn't achieved the purpose it was intended to. Ukraine has been provided with money, funding by the United States at a higher and faster rate than any other US ally since the Second World War

involved in a war. Faster, more money than South Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq. There's been attempts to convert that money as we saw last year, this year, into a Ukrainian offensive that would defeat the Russians. It hasn't worked.

The US is now very short of. artillery shells and attempts to crank up production of artillery shells has not been successful. They're not successful so far in increasing production of missiles and other things we've discussed this many, many times. You can't just wave your hand and more of this will come. It doesn't work like that. The Europeans have tried to do the same thing. All that they've managed to do is increase the cost of shells from about 800 euros a shell to something like 8,000 euros a shell because they're simply throwing money at the problem. So money will prevent an immediate rapid collapse if it's provided a faster collapse. But it won't change the overall trajectory of the conflict. And more and more

people in the United States are starting to say this. So we had the magical thinking article in the Walsary Journal that we talked about in a recent program. We've now had another long piece in foreign affairs by Richard Hasse, the manned from the Council for Foreign Relations, the person who was behind all that outreach to the Russians, that semi-diplomatic outreach to the Russians. They met with Lavrov at the UN back in the spring. They've sent their people to Moscow. they're looking for a freeze.

There's been a lot of that going on. And, you know, people in the United States are beginning to see it. There's that view which says, let's try and conserve forces, go on to the defensive, negotiate with the Russians, try to find some face-saving way of getting out of this problem, maybe freeze the war if we can. That's the sort of one prevailing view. And then there's the other increasingly desperate view that you started to, to get from some Ukrainians and some Western supporters, some Neocon supporters of the Ukraine

project, mobilize everyone, throw every single person that you still have in Ukraine who can carry a gun, boys, young men, students, girls, throw them into the battlefield. The West give everything that it's got left. Not quite clear what they mean by that, but anyway, whatever they think they can and try and reverse things that way. Now, the first, I mean, both of these are delusional thinking, in my opinion. The first is delusional because there's no reason why the Russians would agree to a freeze now, and they're not going to, and they've ruled that out. The second isn't just delusional. It's more of the magical thinking that that Wall Street Journal article was talking about, the idea that if you could, you know, press, you know,

in throwing a million men, poorly trained, in many cases young, in many cases women, that that will somehow turn things round. I mean, that is just, I mean, it's not just magical thinking, it's a appalling thing. But those seem to be the two approaches at the moment. And neither of them is a coherent, realistic approach to this coming, debacle, which we need to be very clear about, is now looming clearly over the horizon. Yeah. I get the sense that the Biden White House is contemplating how to get out of this catastrophe

while minimizing the damage to an already battered Biden re-election campaign. And I am starting to be able. believe that Biden will be running as the Democrat choice for a 2024. I don't know, times running out and I just don't see Biden stepping aside. I mean, we're, we're almost into December. So, you know, it looks like Biden's going to be the guy. And I just get the sense that Sullivan and Lincoln and the DNC and all these people are just trying to figure out, can we get Ukraine over the 2020 March? Can we keep them up and running

until 2024 or do we need to cut this loose right away? I mean, they're kind of like stuck in that quagmire. They're trying to figure out how should we go about this. But I'm getting the sense that they want off of this this Ukraine train that they, this disaster, this crash that they created. I entirely agree, except that they have a number of problems. Firstly, the most obvious one

is the president himself. Now, an article has appeared in the Washington Post, which is attributed to him and which I'm sure reflects his views. I mean, like most of these articles, one wonders how much if he did himself right, but, you know, we're not going to go into that. The point is, if you read it, I mean, he's still there talking the old tunes. You know, the U.S. is the essential country. We have a duty to lead. We must resist the Russians over there because if we don't, we might have to fight them over here.

I mean, you know, that's practically what he said. American soldiers would have to be facing the Russians if Ukraine goes down. It didn't seem to me as if Biden is showing any real, sign of flexibility on the Ukraine issue. I don't think intellectually he can. I mean by that, that, you know, he said a few weeks ago, that you know, of course, we're the United States. We can support wars in the Middle East and in Ukraine. We can do so. Definitely, you know, hey, we're the United States. We can do anything. We can walk on water. We can fly in the air. We can, we have, there's no limit to what we can do. And that, it seems to me, remains his, you know,

essential beliefs. So you can't find, if you can't persuade him to step down, and I agree, by the way, I think it's too late now. I think whether they like it or not, they're stuck with him. I mean, they could, they should have followed your advice back in the early summer and acted then, but they didn't. They left it too late. They did it. They couldn't decide on who else should step in. And the result is that they now start with him. And he isn't looking for a way out, or so it seems to me. He doesn't, I don't know to what extent he understands the briefings that he's been given or what kind of briefings he's getting. But I mean, he seems to be, you know, stuck with that military thing. And of course, the other problem they have is the problem that William Burns,

the CIA director, is now confronting when he goes to Kiev. And I'm sure it's also the problem that was conveyed to them by Yermak Zelensky's assistant when he came to Washington, which is that the Ukrainians, what they want, they don't want the United States, these realist people, the Richard Hasse's and all these people. They don't want the United States to negotiate with the Russians. They want the Ukrainians to do it for them. But it's increasingly looking, as it's the Ukrainians are incapable of doing it. The government system in Ukraine, is apparently no dysfunctional. The row

between Zelensky and Zaluzni is unresolved but it seems that the two men are not talking to each other. Apparently Zolensky is now bypassing Zalusini and is giving direct orders to Ukrainian military commanders

without passing them through Zollusini. At least that's the rumor. Zillusini, according to some claims, is busy organizing a coup, which I don't believe. But anyway, that's the story. So it's a fragile political system now in Kiev, and no one within it really is capable of beginning a serious discussion with the Russians.

How can they? I mean, there isn't support for it. And anyone who tries to do it is almost guaranteed for themselves, defeat in what is, as far as I can see, a behind-the-scenes power of struggle that is no out of control. What a mess. What a mess they have created. For themselves, for Ukraine, and for Europe, which is the big loser in all of this. I mean, Europe's going to be the big, big loser in all of this.

Well, indeed so. Aside from Ukraine, obviously, if Ukraine even exists, but yeah, anyway. Well, indeed, and by the way, look, notice something. else that's happening because I mean the only country now in Europe that still seems to be sending military aid to any degree to Ukraine is Germany. The Poles have basically that's dwindled. I mean, I gather that the Poles and the Czech still refurbished tanks, but old Soviet era tanks for Ukraine. Poland was supposed to refurbish Ukraine's leper to two tanks that got damaged on the battlefield. Apparently, they've only managed to refurbish one and send it back. Just one.

Britain, which is the most outspoken supporter of Ukraine amongst the big Western European countries. I mean, it's a very long time since I saw any arms package from Britain to Ukraine. You know, the storm shadows have gone, the challenges have gone, self-propelled Howitzers have gone. France seems to me to be much the same. Italy, always. also. So, you know, they are in a mess, but also they can't change course. I mean, who does David Cameron, or you foreign minister, British foreign minister, he's the first person he goes to see. He still goes to Kiev. He still goes to Beetzelensky. He still utters the famous words as long as it takes, even if the actual reality is the support for Ukraine,

is just dwindling away. And again, I get the sense that there's no real plan on on the part of anybody about what to do. There's just some hope that somehow this whole thing will be wished away more of the magical thinking, if you like. Yeah. You know, I think that a lot of the politicians are just kind of taking the approach. In Europe, they're taking the approach of the United States as well, which is, you know, let's just try to keep this thing alive until we get to some sort of election.

And, you know, then we'll see. And there aren't going to be a lot of. elections in 20204 all over all over europe as well as the united states so i think they're also just taking that attitude of let's just keep this thing going and whatever happens in in my country where i'm prime minister or president will we'll just try to keep ukraine afloat until i have my my local elections i mean that's exactly i think that's exactly correct so there's elections in in all sorts of european countries of course there's also the big elections in the united states people have becoming increasingly nervous about these elections, but keep your fingers crossed, hope that the war

doesn't end in a Ukrainian collapse before the election happens. And at the same time, and this is very noticeable in Britain now, get Ukraine off the front pages. I mean, you can see this very clearly. I mean, if you look at the British media, for example, Ukraine is featured far. less than it was even a few weeks ago. Yeah, that's a good strategy in a way, you know, just kind of get people to forget about it. It works. It does work. But once you get that, just a final note, once you get that big collapse, though, it is going to make a big impact. The question is, will that affect, for example, the Biden campaign or whatever other campaigns are going on in Europe? Well, indeed, absolutely, and that is the thing to understand. I mean, there will be a collapse at some point. This is now, I think, increasingly becoming the trajectory. And going back to a point that you made before, this, what we're seeing at the moment is a Russian advance all across the front lines. It is not the big Russian offensive. The troops that are participating in this offensive seem to be the same Russian troops who repelled Ukraine's offensive. We were talking a lot about Avdeyevka.

The fighting in Avdaevka is being conducted on the Russian side by Russian brigades that were created out of the Donbass militia. Now, they are obviously been extensively retrained and re-equipped. They have no doubt professional officers drawn from the Russian army. They are far more capable units than they were, say, a year ago. But they are still not, you know, the big Russian forces that are building up. And, you know, we get more and more reports, Russia producing huge numbers of tanks, drones, guns, shells, all of these kind of things. But we've not yet seen any of that actually in the battle.

And one does wonder what will happen when we do. They've got a huge force that they've built up. I think 420,000 or 450,000 groups. New troops, new soldiers, professional. Professional. Professional. Professional, by the end of the year. Professional new troops who are getting, you know, proper training. Apparently the training period for these troops is around a year. So, I mean, you know, and, you know, some of them are large significant. I mean, most of them, many of them now have completed that training course. But this isn't going to be like what Ukraine is being asked to do, you know, round up every student, every 17-year-old.

boy, every girl, throw them into the army and give them a few weeks training and throw them into the battlefronts. I mean, this isn't the same thing at all. This is a buildup, as you absolutely rightly say. I have a highly trained, very big, very powerful, very well-equipped professional force. You know, we've not yet seen it in action. We're not yet seen in action, yeah. All right, we will end it there at the durand.orgas.com. We are on Odyssey, bitchchute, rumble, telegram, rockfin, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop, 20% off, use the code the Duran 20. Take care.