The Duran Podcast - Russia gains leverage in negotiations

Episode Date: April 13, 2025

Russia gains leverage in negotiations

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the U.S. Russia diplomacy, the meeting, actually, that is taking place in Istanbul. Both the Russians and the U.S. State Department, the Russian Foreign Ministry and the U.S. State Department, they have said that this meeting is not going to be about Ukraine. It's going to be about the embassies, about normalizing relations, and stuff like that. but still an important meeting. And it shows that the way forward is, at least when it comes to Ukraine, is the Russian approach, which is let's normalize relations between us. Let's get everything on track. And yes, we will sort out Ukraine as well.

We're going to take the time. We'll sort it out. What we have to do is we have to get the general relationship between the United States and Russia back on track because three, four years of, four years of Biden did a lot of damage to the relations between the two countries. And that is the Russian approach. Because you could say it's a holistic approach to Ukraine and to everything that is going on between the United States and Russia.

That's a good thing because the more you have meetings like what you're going to have in Istanbul, the less we can talk about the bonehead idea of, of, of, Kellogg and these guys, which is the whole ceasefire phase one, phase two, phase three thing, we need to move away from that. That's a no-go. And we need to follow, the United States needs to follow Russia's lead on this, which is the normalization of relations between the two countries. Your thoughts?

I completely agree. I think one thing one has to say is that the Kellogg-Waltz approach has effectively already failed. We had a meeting in Riyadh between Karasin and, what was it, Pek and Anton, the American officials. It was apparently a chaos. We're gradually getting to learn, at least on the Russians, there was a completely chaotic meeting that the Americans came completely unprepared. They didn't know very much about the history of the Green Deal and the Baxi Initiative, which they were there mostly to talk about. The Russians had to explain it all to them and give them all the information. and it was all improvised along the way.

And over the course of it, the Americas gave the Russians some kind of a document about getting sanctions on the Russian agricultural back and all of that lifted. And since then nothing has happened. There's been no movement on that at all. The energy ceasefire that Trump tried to get, well, Putin said that he would agree to the one that was for 30 days, the attacks on the energy system. As we said would happen, the Ukrainians never honored it. They never even pretended to honor it.

There's no even doubt that they are not honoring it. They're just going on attacking a Russian energy facilities as if that ceasefire didn't even exist. So, you know, when it expires, which will be in about a week's time, at least as far as the Russians are concerned. And as night follows day, the Russians will say the ceasefire has failed and eventually, in their own time, they will resume their attacks on Ukrainian power installations, energy installations. About that, I have no doubt at all. So the Walls-Kerlog approach has led nowhere and it was never going to lead anywhere because

the Russians always said you've got to address the root causes of the war. And the United States doesn't want to do that, isn't really able to do that, can't really get the Ukrainians to negotiate about those things either, because the Ukrainians never will negotiate. The Europeans have done everything they possibly can to sabotage that whole process. So put all that aside and sort out the problems between the Americans and the Russians and get these two superpowers finally talking to each other. and maintaining at least normal adversarial relations with each other like they did throughout the entire period of the Cold War. And that means getting their embassies functioning again, getting diplomatic contacts working again. And the Russians are coming back now and they're saying, look, we understand you're having. problems, getting the Europeans to lift their sanctions. We're absolutely willing to move forward with you with economic cooperation in your own time. But let's do something which is easy to do and simple now and which will not disrupt anything or really appear as if you're making any big

concessions to us, but which would be symbolically very important and which would show that relations between us are on a improving track, which is restore air links. And the Russians have brought this up again. Now, that, it seems to me, is a workable approach to discussions between the Russians and the Americans. And as I said, put Ukraine aside. Now, we're getting reports. Siersky, the Ukrainian military chief, has now given a massive interview. He says, said that American aid is starting to wind down. The Ukrainians are hoping to get more aid from Europe. Good luck with that, by the way.

American aid is starting to wind down. Zelensky is refusing to sign the mineral rights deal. Well, he's playing fast and loose with it. He says that Ukraine is willing to buy weapons in the United States in return for a mineral rights deal, which would be. would be, however, more equal to the one that the Americans... With whose money? With whose money?

With the U.S. as... It would have to be the U.S. money. I mean, it would all be paid back eventually, but not with the mineral rights deal that is being offered now, but with a new deal that should be more equalized. Anyway, that kind of thing. We have all that nonsense from the Ukrainians, but the admission from Suski,

that American aid is indeed declining. So, gradually, maybe... just possibly the Americans, the Trump administration, through an overcomplicated process, is gradually drifting to that position, which it should have adopted right from the start, of just cutting off Ukraine, or rather not just not so much cutting off Ukraine, but just ending its support for Ukraine and just moving ahead with its improvement of relations with the Russians, going about that step by step. get the embassies working again.

Get the embassy is also important, by the way, so that each country can start providing visas for ordinary travelers who want to move between these two countries. Get the air links going. Get Russians going to America. Americans going to Russia to the extent that they want to. Start up that again. And then gradually you can move to other things.

and let Ukraine and the conflict finally take care of itself. Maybe that is finally where we are going to, because I hope so anyway, because I don't believe that we are going to have a negotiated outcome for the conflict in Ukraine. I don't think it's possible. The Ukrainians don't want it. The Europeans are working overtime to prevent it. And it's going to be settled on the battlefield, as it was always likely that it would be. And as for the Americans and the Russians, well, they can just go on and sort out their own things

because the United States has no core interests involved in this conflict anymore. Yeah, I was going to ask you, will Zelensky and the Europeans allow this type of reprashment to take place? they're not going to allow it. They're actually now trying to pull in China into all of this with finding the Chinese soldiers in Ukraine this nonsense. But the Kayakalus and the European Union, they came out with a statement and she is the foreign minister of the EU. So what she says matters where she basically blamed China for the conflict in Ukraine. That's what she said. China's fault.

China provided dual-use goods without China. Russia would have lost. China is to blame for the conflict and the developments in Ukraine. That's what she said. That is the foreign minister of the European Union blaming China, trying to pull in China. We understand why they're trying to pull in China into all of this, but still, they're not going to just allow the Trump administration of the United States to walk away from this. They're going to do everything in their power to try and keep the United States invested. in Ukraine, even if that means cutting off their relations with China, because I'm sure China

listens to stuff that Kayakales says, and they're probably not very happy with what she said, and I'm probably very angry with what Zelensky is trying to do with the whole Chinese soldiers in Ukraine fighting for the Russians. I mean, this is without a doubt the end of Ukraine's good relations, which they did have good relations with China. No, I completely agree. And that is exactly what the Europeans are going to do. And that's exactly what Zelensky is doing and Kayakales are doing and all of that. Now, that's again where we come back to the United States, to the Trump administration.

I mean, they've got this issue with China. China looms over everything as far as they're concerned. Are they going to let themselves be played? Because this is what this is. I mean, two Chinese men have turned up pictures. of them carrying credit cards. What soldiers go to battle with credit cards? Do they have credit cards? Do they actually have

credit cards? Apparently. Apparently. Do they use their alley pay or their phone? Whatever it is. Exactly. Yeah, but exactly. But anyway, two Chinese soldiers, we have photos of them. Doesn't seem as if they're there at the official bidding of China or anything of that kind.

There are citizens for any number of countries fighting. in the war. There are Colombians, there are Americans, there are Britons, there are all sorts of people fighting on the Ukrainian side. There are all sorts of people fighting on the Russian side. There's no reason to doubt that these people, if they really exist, and they really are Chinese, which of course we don't know, because we haven't actually had an opportunity to meet with these people. They've not been actually, you know, we've had no public interviews or discussions with them, but if they are what they appear to be, then quite plausibly and probably they're

simply volunteers. Nothing to do, in other words, with the Chinese government. The United States just ought to accept that, put all that to one side. So do itself, look, the relations with Russia are just too important to be held hostage to what the Europeans want and what the Ukrainians. want, it's not as if the Europeans are in any actual position to prevent an improvement of relations between the United States and Russia. If the United States makes the decision that improving relations is in its interests, then you should just go ahead and do it. I mean,

not worry about, you know, what Kayakalas of all people has to say. I mean, it's just ridiculous. for the foreign policy of the United States to be decided by someone like Kayakales, or indeed Zelensky and people like that. Final question. Shouldn't Putin, given everything that we've now seen with the whole Liberation Day tariffs and how Trump walked all of that back, how the, the United States, Ukraine, the European Union, they're going after China now. They're putting all the blame on China for everything with the tariffs.

It's now only China that's going to have the tariffs and they're to blame for the economic difficulties in the United States situation in the United States. So they're getting the blame there. When it comes to the conflict in Ukraine, it's China's involvement that has helped Russia win or Russia winning. That is what the European Union is saying. Zelensky is showing these Chinese soldiers as proof that China is involved in the conflict and China was lying when they said that they had no involvement in this conflict and that they were only looking for peace. Zelensky is saying they're lying. You see they're sending not only two soldiers into

the conflict. Zelensky is saying maybe even 150, maybe even more. He says, He has the passports. He has the IDs. Anyway, they're now turning on China. Now, during the first year or two of the conflict of the special military operation, one of the reasons, there were many reasons, but one of the reasons that Putin and Russia did proceed with the conflict in Ukraine at a slow pace, at a measure pace, was because of China. and the doubts that China had and the concerns that China had with the special military operation, with their relations with Ukraine and with their relations with the United States. China wanted to keep good relations with the United States, good relations with Ukraine,

and they had concerns about the special military operation, and they were putting pressure on Putin and Russia to not go so hard in Ukraine. I don't think it's a secret that China did provide drone parts. for Ukraine, or Ukraine was able to obtain a lot of Chinese drone parts. In other words, China did not openly side with Russia. They played it in the middle. They actually put a squeeze on Russia, a diplomatic pressure on Russia. Don't go too hard. Let's try to settle this with a roadmap.

They even had a roadmap that they proposed. And now we see that the, The Ukrainians, Zelensky, and the Europeans and the Americans are 100% turning on China. Doesn't this open the way for Putin? What am I getting that? Doesn't this open the way for Putin to when he talks to Xi Jinping to say, you know what, I'm going to finish this? Yeah, absolutely.

If you have any concerns, any apprehensions with your diplomatic, with your relations, with your diplomatic relations with the US or the EU or Ukraine, we're not going to take those into consideration anymore. Look at what they did to you. Look at what they're doing to you. We need to finish this. I wouldn't be at all surprised if conversations of that kind actually happened. Now, the important thing to understand is that, of course, the United States is not turning on China because of Ukraine. No, no, no. I'm not saying that either. I'm not saying that. But that leads... I'm saying they're turning on them because of the tariffs.

Tariffs are Taiwan, the fact that China is the U.S. is peer competitor for all kinds of other reasons. But that means that the Russians can say, look, you wanted to preserve your relationship with the Americans. It was partly one of the reasons you wanted to slow walk this. you wanted a peaceful settlement, it's because you didn't want to rupture your relations with the Americans and with the Europeans. But you see, they're being ruptured anyway, because just as these people were implacably hostile to us, they are equally, in fact, even more implacably hostile towards you. So ultimately, it would have made no difference. It makes no difference now. because we can push forward harder and faster in Ukraine, which we are absolutely in a position to do.

It's not going to affect their relationship with you because that relationship was deteriorating anyway. That's almost certainly what the Russians are going to say. There's another thing to say about this, which is that, of course, there's been lots of threats. from the Americans to impose retaliatory sanctions on countries that buy Russian oil and all that kind of thing. Well, again, from a Russian perspective, the events of the last few weeks, the fact that the United States imposed all these tariffs shows that it's intending to impose tariffs on people has been planning to impose tariffs anyway, unrelated to what goes on in Ukraine, unrelated to

the oil trade, but also that when he tried to pursue policies of reciprocal tariffs, because of the reaction in the markets, the United States had to back down. So the Russians probably feel that that puts them in a stronger position also, because the United States, they can tell the Chinese, they can tell the Indians, they can tell others. You can just go on buying our oil. because the Americans are not really in a stronger position to impose tariffs, 500% tariffs or whatever crazy figure Lindsey Graham has come up with. They're not really in the position to do that in the way that they said because the markets won't like it. So the whole calculus has changed. Russia can now be more confident that China is on side. China is going to need Russia more because tariffs that exist, the 124% tariffs, the Americans imposed,

the 84% tariffs, the Chinese imposed. That means that American oil and LNG going to China is now prohibitively expensive, but the Russians can provide China with oil and LNG. The Chinese need that oil and LNG. to keep their economy going. The Russians can provide the Chinese with a lot of the food that China was previously importing from the United States. Not all of it, it can't provide soybeans,

but China can get soybeans from Brazil, but it can get other things, grains and those sort of things from Russia instead. The way this is all playing out at the moment is that it's putting Russia and a strong. a stronger position and in a stronger position to prosecute the war more aggressive. Yeah. All right, we will end the video there.

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