The Duran Podcast - Russia hardline position, talks with Trump exhausted

Episode Date: October 10, 2025

Russia hardline position, talks with Trump exhausted

Arad Alexander, let's talk about the diplomatic situation between Russia and the United States and some statements from Riyapkov, who is the deputy foreign minister for Russia, and many people believe he will be the next foreign minister after Lavrov. So he said some things about the normalization of relations between Russia and the United States, the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska and how all of this has pretty much been exhausted. And it looks like we're not on the path towards any type of rapprochement between the United States and Russia. Whatever, whatever happened three, four months ago has pretty much run its course. The interesting part about the statements from Riyapkov is that once again, all of the blame is being placed.

on the Europeans. None of it is being placed on the Trump administration, President Trump, Kellogg, the neocons. So it looks like Putin's line of keeping the door open to the United States remains. Yeah. That is absolutely true, but I think at the same time, one has to say this, that line is clearly beginning to crumble. And this statement, by reality, is extremely important and very interesting, and we'll come to it in the moment. But it must be taken in conjunction with Putin's various statements, the one at the Valdai Conference in Sochi, the one that he gave to Zarubin, the interview he gave to Zarobin about the Tomahawks, and of course another meeting which took place in St. Petersburg,

where Putin met with the generals and received a briefing from General Gerasia. Now, there's some questions about that meeting, which I'll come to shortly. But anyway, let's talk about Yabqv and his statement. Now, Riyabkuf is a very senior person in the Russian Foreign Ministry. You're absolutely correct. There have been rumors that when Lavaarov finally retires, it will be Riyarbkov who will take over. Riyabkv has been the person in the foreign ministry, who appears to have had overall choice. charge of policy within the foreign ministry relating to the United States and Western Europe.

So, and these comments were made in a briefing he made to the Duma, which is, of course, the Russian Parliament. So this is about as authoritative and as official as it gets. So he comes, he came to this meeting. He said that the process that was initiated in Alaska has exhausted itself. He said that there's been no forward movement at all on sorting out any of the problems, the underlying problems that exist between Russia and the United States. It's clear that there's been no progress either on resolving the Ukrainian conflict. He spoke of the frustration the Russians feel that Putin's recent proposal about strategic arms control, the extension of the New START treaty by one year, and negotiations to try and find some means to achieve arms control beyond it, that that has gone not just unanswered, but essentially unheeded. He said that there's been no movement on air links, reestablishing air links, no real agreements about unblocking the embassies and the diplomatic contacts.

Everything basically is frozen. And yes, he did blame the Europeans. This continues to be what Putin is saying and what the Kremlin's line is. They're still giving Trump that small crack in the door, through which he can walk through. But take it in the context of the other things that Ryavka said. He said that this is a house, the relationship between Russia and the United States, is a house full of cracks, and the cracks are now reaching down to the very foundations.

And there may not be any overt criticism of Trump here, But there is clearly implicit criticism because he is ultimately the president of the United States and what the Russians are saying is, look, you are not moving forward with any of the things that we were talking about over the last eight, nine months. Things have come to stop. If you can't handle the Europeans, well, that's one problem. If you're talking about Tomahawk missiles, that's another problem. But ultimately, it all comes back to you. You are the president. of the United States, and you cannot take the Alaska process forward. So to me, it's absolutely clear now.

The Russians are at that point when they're saying to themselves, we're on the brink of giving up on this, we've given a lot of time and effort to try to sort out something with this president and with this administration. Either the president has been stringing us along or perhaps more likely he is weak and cannot follow through on what he seems to want to want to do. But one way or the other, the fact remains we are making no progress and we have to stop thinking that progress is going to be made and we've got to make our own decisions, sorting out our own security issues. and moving forward with them. And going back to the Zarabin interview,

it was very interesting because Putin was, for the first time now openly floating the possibility that the military might move beyond the four regions and start occupying more territory in Ukraine and that this might be necessary in order to safeguard Russian security. So the military are being given a kind of green light

to do that. And this in an interview that took place just before Putin met with Gerasimov and the generals and met with them in St. Petersburg and there's no real explanation of why Putin was even there.

What was he doing in St. Petersburg? It doesn't seem to really chime with the rest of his itinery. St. Petersburg is a major military center, but of course it is also on the Baltic. It could be that there's been discussions about building up the Russian fleet, but it's difficult to see this outside the issues that have been happening in the Baltic, the issue with the Russian fighter jets, the threats that have been made by the West. and powers, it does look as if the Russians are working towards, accepting that they're now

in a much deeper confrontation with the West. Yeah, shouldn't the Russians just say it more straightforward? I mean, you say it's clear to you. Yeah. That's what you said. This is clear to me that the Russians are exhausted with Alaska, that they're moving away from Alaska, that they understand that the Trump administration is not. He's not looking for normalization that the Trump administration is playing games.

Whatever, you know, you're saying that these messages for you are clear when you parse the statements from people like Ryavkov or when you parse the statements from Putin or from Lavrov. But the Russians are not saying it straightforward and clearly to the Americans or to the Europeans or Toneado, right? You have to parse these messages. I just don't believe that that people like Kayakalus is able to parse messages. I don't believe that people like Mark Ruta are able to understand Russia's messaging. And I have doubts that U.S. diplomacy and the U.S. State Department under Marco Rubio and the Trump administration and President Trump himself

are able to understand the messaging from the Russian. So wouldn't it just be? be better for the Russians to just say it straight on to the Trump administration. Don't even waste your time with NATO or the Europeans. Just tell the Trump administration straight on. If you guys give Tomahawks X, Y, and Z, if you guys continue with this ridiculous rhetoric and lashing out against us and saying this stuff about our president, X, Y, and Z. I mean, just be done with it and just tell them straight on that you're not going to put up with any of the stuff. If you guys sees our tankers like you're looking to do and close off the Baltic Sea, which they are absolutely trying to do now, they are going to make a move and try to close

the Baltic Sea, or at least they're playing around with the idea and they're trying to figure out how to do that. I mean, it's just escalation after escalation. That's all they're talking about. That's all they're doing. And the Russians are dancing around these issues and they're not saying anything straight on. Remember what I said to you, that the Russians don't understand. understand the American political system, just as the Americans don't understand the Russian

political system. I think the Russians give the time of date to the Europeans. I think they've long since stopped bothering what Kayakales and Oslobondolian and Friedrich Mertz and all of the others say and think. I think this has been the case for a long, long time now. Russian comments about those people, when the Russians bothered to talk about them, at all, is fairly forthright. About the United States, the thing here is that the Russians and the Americans used to have

a relationship going way back into the Cold War, when each side became extremely accustomed to reading the other and understanding. understanding the signals that the other side was making. And the Russians are still playing, according to that copy book, because they still imagine that people like Ray McGovern and people like that are there in the CIA doing the kind of analysis and providing that kind of update to Trump. And I don't think they understand that those days in Washington are long since gone. Also, there continues to be, and this is something that we've talked about, there continues to be an argument clearly within Russia.

about the direction of policy. Putin himself has invested a lot of time in Donald Trump. He spent, had many telephone conversations with Trump, I think it's six altogether. He's met Wittgolf multiple times. He met with Trump in Alaska. Putin has always wanted, as we know, a relationship with the United States. And I've discussed how good going all the way back to November 2021. He was talking about Russia needing to come to some kind of understanding with the Americans to sort out the relationship on Russia's Western border. Other people within the Russian political elite think differently. Medvedev clearly thinks differently. The military, I think, clearly think differently. Lavrov also, I think, by now,

thinks differently. And of course, Lava offers much, many more interactions with the Americans than Putin himself does. So I think that there has been this debate, this conflict, if you like, within the Kremlin, within the Russian leadership about this. Putin has always been, within Russia, in general, a moderate voice. But the fact that they're a government. But the fact that they're up with these statements now, shows that he's being pushed towards the side of the hardliners. And I think eventually he will get there, as he did with the special military operation. So it's, it's, this is the dynamic that plays out in Moscow. Obviously, we have to, we have to try and explain it and understand it. I'm afraid I don't think the Americans do, but the point is that this is the direction of events.

It's the direction of travel. If you like, this is the Russians signaling to Trump. Look, you're completely on the wrong road. They probably, Putin probably is still hoping that Trump will see that. I don't think anybody else apart from Putin in Moscow thinks it. And I think that moment of truth, when, as I said, the bridge will be crossed is about to come. Yeah, but you know, you're saying that Putin is starting to move towards the hardline position. Well, Trump has already moved towards the hardline position.

I mean, he's there. Trump is there. He is on the side of Kellogg. He's on the side of Lindsay Graham, at least by the actions. Don't even go off of his statements. You know, the Tomahawk missiles, the long-range missiles that are going to be going to Ukraine. I don't know if it's going to be Tomahawks, but something is going to be said to Ukraine if it's not already there. Maybe we're talking about tourist missiles. Maybe we're talking about something

else. Maybe we're talking about a lot of different missiles as Olensky goes on and on about long-wage missile strikes into Russia, deep into Russia. He's not talking about long-range missile strikes hitting St. Petersburg. Something is being cooked up. Something is there. Something is going to be launched. And everyone knows that it is launched with the at a minimum. at a minimum with the blessing of the United States. And I'm saying at a minimum, everyone knows that the United States is behind it. And let's not, you know, forget about the, I mean, let's remember the fact that the United States is continuing to provide the intel and the targeting and everything that continues

to go on with whatever strikes happen in Russia, including the drone strikes. That's the United States. That's the United States behind all of that. But, you know, Wiccoff, it looks like Wickoff is on his way out. And with Whitkoff on his way out, this is how it looks. Maybe that's not going to happen by the end of the year. Maybe Whitkoff decides to stay on. That would be a good thing.

But the reports are that by the end of the year, Whitkoff is going back to doing what he was doing before entering the Trump administration before being Trump's advisor. So that would leave Trump with just about nobody in his administration that is engaging in any type of diplomacy or dialogue. That would mean that Trump's administration. is pretty much all hardliners. Yes.

Now, you see, this is where the last 10 months have been confusing, because Trump has at various times also seemed to tilt decisively towards the hardliners. Remember how back in July, he said that if the Russians didn't agree to a ceasefire immediately, he would impose 100% tariffs on Russia and 100% tariffs on India and China. and then he didn't do it. Then we had threats or these assertions from Trump that he was going to give security guarantees to Ukraine. And there was talk about him giving a backstop to European militaries to enter Ukraine. And all of that has melted away. So this is what makes, I think, the debate in Moscow confusing because they don't, there are always

reasons to think that Trump doesn't fully mean what he says, that he comes up with these blustering comments about Tomahawk missiles and all of that. But then in the end, he backs off and keep the door slightly open because then if he backs off, we might at some point be able to retrieve this relationship. This, I am sure, is what Putin and people in the Kremlin, who think like him will be saying, you know, let's just, let's see this because he talks sometimes in this way, but he never, he never in the end follows through. Now, I think that the people who are making that argument, including Putin himself, are losing ground. I think people who are making the contrary argument who say, well, let's not waste time trying to decipher

what Trump is saying. Let's not waste time trying to keep track of Trump's threats and retreats and all of that. The question is not whether in the end Trump is even going to supply Tomahawks. The question is whether we can ever agree anything substantive with him. We aren't even able to get him to agree to a one-year extension of the New START treaty. He's not even prepared to do that. So why are we wasting time? Why are we wasting time talking to this man, spending all this time with him, engaging with his administration, when even simple things, like reestablishing air links or opening up embassies are not happening? So I think that is the kind of argument that is taking place.

The Russians have never experienced in all the time they've interacted with the Americans, a president quite like this, who says one thing one day, does something completely different the next, pivots and changes from one day to the next. And perhaps given the way in which decision making is made in Moscow, which is far more structured, It's not surprising that it's taking them some time to adjust to this. When they do adjust, and this is the thing to understand, when this great tanker, which is the Russian decision-making community, comes to a consensus and decides on a policy,

and all of the indications are that it will come to the decision that Trump simply isn't worth wasting time on, then that decision will be fixed and it won't change. I think that Trump, it's not that Trump is split between escalation and dialogue at this point in time. It looks to me as if Trump is listening to what his hardliners are telling him, you know, let's send Tomahawks to Ukraine tomorrow. And he's saying, okay, let's do it. And then he's getting advice from some people, which is more along.

the lines of, yeah, let's send Tomahawks, but we have difficulties technically doing it. I think reality, he hears all this stuff from neocons, these fantasies from the neocons like Kellogg and Lindsay Graham, and then he has people in the White House who are also aligned with the neocons, but they're giving him a more realistic picture and they're telling him, you know, yes, I agree with Keith Kellogg, absolutely, let's send Tomahawks. But, you know, We've got the launch platform. We got all of these difficulties. So let's look at some other options.

But in the meantime, Trump is posting this stuff on truth social, right? So, you know, he'll have people like Scott Besson, who's also a hardliner, saying 100% tariffs on China, 150% tariffs on India, 500% tariffs on Brazil. And Trump gets excited. And he says, now we've got Putin. Now we're going to sink the Russian economy. Now we're going to win. And I'll be able to give this big speech about how I led America to victory piece through strength, blah, blah, blah. And then some people come along and they tell them, absolutely,

it would be great if we could sink the Russian economy, Mr. President. But we have some things that we have to deal with. So, I mean, I just get the sense that there's no one in the Trump administration telling him, Mr. President, stop. Don't listen to these fools. Don't listen to Kellogg. Don't listen to these other people. What we need to do right now is we need to talk to the Russians. We need to figure out a way to normalize relations with the Russians. Europe is dragging us down. NATO is dragging us down. We've lost this war. We've lost this war, Mr. President. Just accept it. Accept it and walk away from it. I don't think there's anyone in the White House at this moment left anymore to tell them these things. Maybe six months

ago there were. But the more time passes, these people are fading away. Yes. You have to, I just described the kind of debate that is almost certainly taking place in Moscow. You have described with equal and perhaps even greater accuracy, what is happening within Washington? Because I think it is exactly, as you say, we have a president who is terrified of being blamed if the war in Ukraine is lost. He doesn't want anybody to say that the collapse in Ukraine is in any way he's fault. And so he's got that enormous insecurity there already. He also, So, as you've also said in many programs now, that he has this constant desire to try to impress and endear himself in Washington to people who are fundamentally opposed to him and who will

always despise and dislike him. This has been a besetting problem with his president from the moment he became president, first became president, back in January 2017. So he does this. He also apparently doesn't sit down and read reports. This is not a president who spends his time going through memos, listening to analysis. He doesn't call in experts. He doesn't really discuss with the kind of people who know about Tomahawk missiles and how they really function, what they can actually do. He wants to brag all the time about U.S. militaries.

He can't ever accept that the United States. States is perhaps less powerful than he wants to believe. So he's very, a president who's very easy to manipulate. And this is what has been happening right from the moment when he became president back in January. He's never been able to stick to a consistent policy. On the contrary, what we see is occasional moments of insight, occasional moments are wanting to improve relations with the Russians, but ultimately he constantly gets dragged back and ends up reverting to the policies of the neocons and of the other hardliners who surround him. And of course, he's worried all the time about what his donors think, about the hardliners within the Senate, what Lindsey Graham thinks,

and unbelievably and incredibly, he wastes his time listening to the Europeans as well, as we discussed after the Alaska summit. He actually agreed to have them all come and sit at the Oval Office and talk to him there. What was the point of that? What was the point of that? And we look back at that discussion. Remember, it's all about security guarantees and all of that. None of that has been followed through because it cannot be.

But it wasted time and poisoned the atmosphere that was created after the Alaska summit between himself and the Russians, which is really the intention all along. He didn't need to have the Europeans. He didn't need to give them the time of day. But off he did, off he went and off he did. And not only that, but he interrupted his meetings, meeting with the Europeans and went off to call Putin and trying to badger. and Bram Boutin into agreeing to a summit meeting with Zelensky, which the Russians were not prepared to have, and had never given any indication that they were prepared to have.

So this is the problem with this president. Ultimately, I think there is an aspect of Donald Trump, which inclines him anyway to the neocons. I mean, this whole piece through strength mantra that we hear all the time. this desire to assert power. But as well as that, there is insecurity and there is weakness and an inability to follow a consistent line, which has resulted in him drifting, always invariably back to where the

Europeans and Kellogg and the Ukrainians want him. Okay, so what does Russia do going forward? Will they continue to try and wait for Trump to come around? Will they continue to show this patience and restraint in the face of NATO and European escalation? I mentioned the plan that Europe is trying to put together to block off the Baltic Sea, to seize more Russian tankers. We have the long-range missiles, which we've talked about in many videos. Zelensky openly saying that the long-range missile attacks are coming any day now.

Zelensky is saying that if Russia continues to hit Ukraine's energy facilities, then Ukraine will go after Belgorod and Kursk and other energy facilities in Russia, as well as the long-rage missile strikes into the energy facilities in Russia, which Trump has. has greenlit. Trump has greenlit the strikes deep into Russian territory. So that has been sanctioned and approved by the president of the United States. What does Russia do now going forward? Will it continue to be restraint or will they start to execute on a plan? Well, the first thing to say is that those tankers that might be seized on the high seas are not Russian tankers. They are tankers that carry oil from Russia, but they have flags of third countries, and they mostly have crews from third countries, and they are delivering oil to countries, to customers, which are in countries outside Russia. So, yes, I think there is this plan, but I think if it is

ever executed, it is going to provoke not just a reaction from Russia, but a general widespread reaction as well. And I understand that there's already been warnings both from India and China and Indonesia as well to various Western countries and European countries, not to even think of doing it. So this may not be quite a straightforward. I mean, Macron tried it when he seized one tanker on the high seas, but he immediately had to release it. And I understand that he did that after strong private protests from China as well. Anyway, the Russians have already said that. I think that's just before you go on.

I think that's interesting that it was the protests, not from Russia, but from other countries. Under countries, yes. Well, in a way it suits the Russians, though. Because if other countries start weighing in, then of course other countries are in effect being pushed to taking the Russia publicly, to being pushed to take the Russia publicly, to be pushed to take the Russian side. So I think there is that. But anyway, the Russians have also said what they're going to do,

which is that Patrushchev, who is in overall charge of the Russian Navy, has already spoken about the Russian Navy being deployed to operate a convoy system. So that ships that carry Russian oil are going to be protected by Russian warships on the high seas, all of which, of course, sets up. the position for a potential naval clash, and we'll see whether it comes. Of course, if we're also talking about ships that belong to third countries and which are delivering cargoes to other countries, well, there might eventually come a point when the navies of those countries get

involved as well. Again, this has not been thought through, and I was reading an article somewhere, I think it was the Financial Times, that there has now been a lot of discussion in the about this and there is growing doubts about whether this plan to close the portic is really is really something that can be executed that the risks for the Europeans of doing that are simply too great. So I just that that is one thing. Now as to the other things that the Russians might do, well I'm going to say a number of things. Firstly, they're moving beyond this I mean, Putin is now clearly indicating this is what he did with Zarabin that the Istanbul Plus proposals are very, very quickly soon going to be superseded by harder proposals.

So no more question of Ukraine joining the EU, for example, no more question of Russian territory being limited, Russian territorial acquisitions being limited to the four regions. and perhaps more military escalations. Again, I think that the Russians probably make a hard-headed military calculation, that military escalations in Europe itself might not be such a good idea because the Russians gain nothing from them, but meant military escalations in other places. as they warned about in the past, we hear reports that the Russians are already thinking

of providing fighter jets to Iran and becoming more involved in Iran and all kinds of other things that we will see. Bear in mind that one of the original purposes of Trump's outreach to the Russians was because Trump realized that he needed Russian help to try to stabilize conflicts in all kinds of places. And of course, if that Russian help is not going to be provided, then he's not going to be able to stabilize those conflicts. But the most important thing is that the most immediate thing is that the Russians will say no more Istanbul plus, no more negotiations at all. Let's just keep advancing in Ukraine and let's focus. on winning the war.

This is where we come back to that very interesting meeting between Putin and the generals in St. Petersburg because Putin was quite clearly giving the military there, the green light, to just keep advancing westwards.

I noticed that at no point did he talk about negotiations. He didn't mention Trump's name at all. He didn't talk about the United States. He didn't talk about negotiations with UK. Ukraine, uniquely, and I think for the first time, he made no reference to any of these things. Right.

Okay. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on X and rumble and telegram and go to Duran shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care.