The Duran Podcast - Russia-Ukraine-US negotiation chess and poker

Episode Date: May 29, 2025

Russia-Ukraine-US negotiation chess and poker

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. We now have the date for the second round of part two of the Istanbul negotiations, which took place a couple of weeks ago. And the next round will also take place, obviously, in Istanbul. A lot of talk about it taking place at the Vatican. Kellogg mentioned Geneva. we are going to have the next round of negotiations in Istanbul on June the second. That is coming up next week.

We have the second round of talks. I believe it's going to be the same negotiating teams, Medinsky for the Russians and whoever Ukraine puts out. I think Umer of the defense minister. So let's talk about the second round of negotiations. and Alexander, let's discuss how the narrative now is that Ukraine has submitted its memorandum, its draft memorandum, or as Kellogg called it a term sheet. That's the words that Kellogg used. Ukraine has submitted this to the United States.

Kellogg admitted as much two days ago on Fox News. And then they gave it to the Russians, which is, I'm a lot of, a bit suspicious about what's going on. I actually believe that Kellogg drafted this memorandum, whether this is basically Kellogg's plan that has just been transferred over to Ukraine. I think Kellogg messed up when he was talking to Fox News and he said that Ukraine has already submitted their plan. A couple of days later, we now get Ukraine saying, okay, okay, we submitted our plan to Russia. I found the whole timing of all of this very, very suspicious. Anyway, they are now saying that Russia is delaying. Russia is delaying in submitting their draft memorandum, which means

that Russia is not serious about peace. Your thoughts on everything that's going on. Well, it is all very interesting, but you're absolutely right. The Americans, which is to be more precise, the Kellogg wing of the administration has drafted Ukraine's proposal. There's been no sign at all that the Ukrainians have been working on a proposal. Now, you mentioned in, I think it was the lie stream we did with Robert Barnes, that Kellogg had gone to ground and we hadn't seen much of him. The reason we haven't seen much of him is because he's working, he's been working on this proposal, which he's been coordinating with the Ukrainians. Now, just to say something else, it is also very, very strange. I mean, it's completely bizarre

that the Ukrainians would send their proposal to the Americans first if it really were that. But, I mean, you know, assuming the Americans were acting as negotiators or mediates or something of that kind, the Ukrainians would surely be sending their proposals to the Russians and the Americans simultaneously. But instead, we're told they sent them to the Americans first. In reality, it's been the other way around, if anything. I mean, what's clearly been happening is that the Americans have been running writing Ukraine's proposals for them. Now, the Russian proposal, by contrast, is clearly Russian. And Medinsky completely squashed and very quickly the whole suggestion that the Russians had been, you know, slow footing this, that they hadn't actually completed theirs. In fact, the Russians have been giving us a lot more information about the progress in preparing their memorandum than the Ukrainians have done.

And the other interesting thing is we've had this very strange spat over the last couple of week or so, two weeks, about the actual location of the next meeting. So Trump suggested the Vatican. It was also, I think, perhaps the Ukrainian idea that it'd be the Vatican. then Kellogg suggested Geneva. The Russians just pushed that all aside. Basically what they said is, we are meeting the Ukrainians in Istanbul on the 2nd of June, where we're going to hand over our memorandum to them.

Now, notice that the Russians are not giving their memorandum to the Ukrainians in advance of that meeting, which is something that, again, there's been lots of attempts to get them to try to do. And there are two reasons for this. Firstly, they do not want the Ukrainians to start leaking the contents of that Russian memorandum and to spin its contents in the media before the meeting itself takes place. I mean, we know as night follows day that that is exactly what would happen. So that is the first thing.

The second is that, of course, what the Russians also, don't want is a situation where Kellogg essentially prepares the reply. So the Russians will hand over their memorandum to the Ukrainians in Istanbul. They've just, as I say, pushed aside any proposal that it happened in the Vatican, that the meeting had taken place in the Vatican or in Geneva. They've chosen the venue. They've picked the date. They're coming to Istanbul. They're bringing their memorandum with them, the Ukrainians and the Americans are just having to follow. It's interesting, dynamic to this, and it tells us an awful lot about how this negotiation is going. The Ukrainians and the U.S. are following. I agree with that. But the Russians are absolutely

playing along with the U.S. Trump as mediators. It's clear that Kellogg is working with the Ukrainians and with the Europeans. It's clear that, I believe it's fairly clear, let's say fairly clear, that Rubio is working with the Europeans and the Ukrainians. Russia plays along with this, and Russia plays along with Trump is mediating, and the United States is part of the mediation of this negotiation. It's the Europeans that are the problem. True, it is the Europeans. It is that are the problem. But it's the United States that started all of this. And it's the United States that ultimately, at the end of the day, is behind all of this. And if we really wanted to get to a lasting solution to the conflict in Ukraine, the negotiations have to be between the United

States and Russia and no one else. That's my opinion on this. I mean, if you really want to get to the heart of the matter, to the real problem here, to a real long lasting solution, then the United States has to sit down with Russia. Even Putin yesterday said that what Russia is aiming for is a security architecture that takes the interests of all countries in the region, including Russia's. But that's what he said. I mean, that's basically Putin saying we have to sit down with the United States and no one else. The million dollar question that I have here is, why does Russia go along with this? Why are they playing this theater? And they are playing this theater because everyone gets upset at Trump's posts and his messages on truth

social way calls Putin crazy or he says that Putin is playing with fire. But to be fair, Russia isn't really pushing back on everything that Trump is saying. Russia is actually going out of their way to make Trump and the United States the mediator in all of this. They really are going out of their way to present the United States as the mediator. Notice that in the last two, three months, there has not been one bad word from Russia about the U.S. involvement in the conflict of the Ukraine, whether it's intel, whether it's weapons, anything. They go out of their way. Everybody, and the Kremlin administration goes out of their way to make sure that they do not say one thing about the U.S. involvement in the conflict in Ukraine. And that includes all the drones

that are heading into the Russian Federation, which would undoubtedly need some sort of NATO-U.S. coordination. Your thoughts on all of this because you know, it's, it's, you constantly get the messages that, that, you know, Trump is, uh, Trump is saying crazy things. Trump is, uh, is, is, is, is behind this, this conflict, even though he's, he presents some to himself to be the mediator, but you have to be fair. Russia goes along with it. They do go along with it. And we discussed this in a recent program, and we both agreed, and it is absolutely my view, that this is a very, very complicated game that the Russians are playing, and a high-risk one. And I'm not sure that it's going to turn out well in the end for them at all. It is clearly the game that Putin has

decided to play. And for the time being, the Russian Security Council and the rest of the foreign ministry bureaucracy in Russia are working with it. As I said, I'm not sure that it's a good idea and I am not sure that it is going to end well. But the key is in what, the key for the explanation is in what you said, that ultimately, in order to settle this conflict, it can only be settled through a direct negotiation between Russia and the United States. So if there is going to be a direct negotiation between Russia and the United States, then what, what is going to be? What the Russians are trying to do is to try to keep the Americans involved so that they can eventually reach that point where they are able to discuss directly with the Americans, sidelining the Ukrainians

what the Russians want to talk about and have been wanting to talk about ever since they proposed those two draft treaties in December 2021, the new security architecture for Europe. And interestingly, Reuters is saying that, Of course, one wonders how Reuters gets this information. But Reuters is saying that the new proposals, the Russian memorandum, incorporates ideas that go beyond the Ukrainian conflict itself, that it is essentially again demanding that the Russians are again demanding, a complete stop to further NATO expansion, written guarantees from not just the Ukrainians, but all the Western powers, that NATO expansion is going to end and that it's going

to extend to Moldova and Georgia and other places. Of course, Moldova and Georgia are not directly involved in the conflict in Ukraine. So why would the Russians be including all of that in their memorandum, assuming, of course, always assuming that the Reuters dispatch is even true. But why would they be, incorporating all of that material in a memorandum unless it was basically intended to be picked up and taken forward by the Americans. So that I suspect is the reason that the Russians are making these proposals and are going along with the Americans, you know, this fiction that the Americans are the mediation team, even as Kellogg, of course, draws up drafts, Ukraine's negotiating points for them. And continues, by the way, to harp on about his wonderful

22-point plan, which the Russians, of course, have already rejected. Yeah. Kellogg continues to bash Russia, continues to say this is all Russia's fault. I mean, Kellogg's going on all the media channels, Fox News, and he's saying that Russia is at fault for everything. Russia is the one that's delaying sending their peace plan to to Ukraine. Ukraine has already given me the peace plan, even though I wrote it. Ukraine has already given it to me. Boy, did he really mess up on that one, Kellogg. Not the sharpest knife in the drawer. He is not the sharpest knife. No, he is not, not at all. But, you know, Trump put him there. Trump made him there. Trump made him the envoy. And unfortunately, Kellogg thinks he is.

I mean, I absolutely agree with you that Rubio and Kellogg are working together. But Rubio is a much clever a man than Kellogg is. So Rubio knows what to say in public, which echoes many of Trump's talking points. What he might be saying in private, in fact, we can tell quite definitely that what he says in private is much more hard line. But Kellogg just doesn't know how to control his speech. And as you correctly said, he gives things away and he comes up with the ideas which aren't really But anyway, there we go. Yeah, he gave it away that he's the one that's drafting the memorandum for Ukraine. And then Ukraine rushed out with statements saying that they presented their memorandum to the U.S.

And now they're presenting it to Russia. I mean, the whole thing's ridiculous. But the point is that Russia is now, at least in the media, they're getting the blame for this alleged delay in the memorandum. It's been made up that there's been some sort of delay in getting the memorandum out. Last week, Lavrov was very clear after the P.O.W. Exchange, then we'll have our draft memorandum ready. And now all of a sudden it's turned into this Russian delay tactic. And they're all running with this narrative, with this spin. Kellogg is saying it. Omero posted it on Twitter that we presented our memorandum to Russia.

And Russia continues to delay in presenting their memorandum. foreign minister of Ukraine said the same thing. Why is Russia delaying and presenting their memorandum? The narrative is turning against Russia as is to be expected. Yeah. I don't think the Russians. Yep. Yeah. The trouble is I don't think the Russians care. Well, I think that's the point to say. I agree with you. I thought about this. They don't care. But Trump is, at least publicly, Trump is also making Russia out to be the bad guys in all of this. To be the ones that are delaying, to be the ones that he's losing his patience with, to be the ones that are going to get sanctioned or whatever Trump has in mind. They're playing with fire or whatever he said in his truth social.

Even Lavrov said in a statement that Trump is not getting the right information on what is happening in Ukraine. Lavrov said it. Now, you could say maybe Lavrov is covering for Trump in which you come back to why it's Russia going along with all of this. Or maybe Trump isn't getting the right information because all he is getting is information from Rubio and Kellogg. I mean, I understand the Russians don't care about this, but it is having an effect. Yes. And what it is doing is every so often we go through these endless cycles. I think this is about the third one in which we have Trump publishes something on true social, makes criticisms of Putin, then the narrative immediately starts literally within minutes of that true social appearing, that Trump is about to lose patience with Putin, that the sanctions are going to come, that the Russians have wrecked the relationship with Trump. and that the United States is going to back Ukraine. And this has been a recurring meme over the last couple of months ever since Trump became president.

So it's always this sort of battle to try to, you know, win Trump over to your side. So, you know, we had this, we had this in January, if you remember, with Trump's first through social posts. then we had this again after the Vatican meeting and all of that, you know, between Trump and Zelensky and comments that Trump made at that time. Then we had it again when the four European leaders went to Kiev, that there was supposedly an ultimatum going to be prepared, and now we have this again. I have to tell you, I am personally getting very bored with this business, and I wish in some ways that it would finally end, and it would be better, if anything, for a lot of

as far as I'm concerned. I mean, we be much simpler, make our lives, I think, an awful lot simpler. Trump just went ahead, published his sanctions and had done with it, this whole dreary exercise. But he doesn't want to. Finally end it. That's the point. He doesn't want to. And this is what I think the Russians are saying to themselves. They're saying, look, we've judged, we've assessed Trump. Putin has spoken to him, I think three times. Putin's had many meetings with Whit Goff, whose Trump's envoy. And notice all of these meetings have happened in Moscow.

And in at least one of those meetings, there were no other U.S. officials present, apparently, so that the conversation would not have been leaked to the Washington bureaucracy. So the Russians think, they may be wrong to think this, by the way, that they understand that Trump actually is open to their ideas ultimately for some sort of grand bargain. And they're saying, let's let's let's let's just take the hit. Let's, you know, let's let the media influences do their work, their commentaries appear, the articles appear in the media. And let's work to try to separate the Americans from the Ukrainians over the course of this negotiation.

Let's try to work to push Trump away from people like Kellogg. Let's go on talking to Trump directly, ignoring his flashes of anger that appear all, every so often, which might have, you know, political motivations behind them, which are connected to US domestic policy, in order eventually to set the scene. Maybe not this year, maybe next year after the war in Ukraine has been won for that negotiation between ourselves and the Americans redrawing the security architecture in Europe, which for the long-term interests of our country is what we want. I am not convinced this is a good strategy. I mean, I've said this already. I am just as I thought it was a mistake, I'm absolutely sure it was a mistake for Trump to get enmeshed

in the Ukraine negotiations. So I'm not convinced that this is a good strategy on the Russian side. We said that a long time ago. But there it is. I think it's what these two leaders are doing. maybe they are feeling their way towards each other. But I can see lots and lots of things that can go wrong. For the Russians, the risk is not that, you know, people in Europe will get angry or people in America will get angry or that sanctions will be imposed or something of that kind. It is that eventually some of their global South allies, Brazil in particular, Lula especially,

might start to buy into these constructed narratives, and that might result in some of the support for Russia in the global South peeling away. So far, it hasn't happened, but that risk, I think, is there, and I'm sure that Russian diplomacy is very active to try to keep everybody on board, but as I said, the Russians are making their lives harder for themselves by taking this approach. Maybe it will eventually lead to the outcome they want, but I'm not convinced it will. Yeah. So basically you're saying that Russia is going along with this theater of the U.S. as mediator, as Trump as mediator, because they feel it's important in the next year or two to be able

to sit at the table with Trump. Yes. After Ukraine is over, after Russia has won, to be able to sit at the table with Trump and to hammer out what Putin said, the other. day, which is a security architecture in Europe, which he has said for many years, going preceding the conflict in Ukraine, Putin has made it a priority for a security architecture in Europe to be, to be agreed on by the United States and Russia. So this has been a priority from even before the special military operation. You're saying that is what you believe they're aiming for.

That's why they allow this theater to play out, all this theater of the U.S. to play out as The US, NATO, Europe is sending drones into Russia as they are providing weapons to Ukraine. As they're talking about tourist missile strikes, this is the gamble that Putin is making. And as I said, I mean, it's difficult to imagine any other country, by the way, playing a complicated game like this. But you know, what do they say that the Russians play chess and the Americans play poker? This is absolutely, if I am right in my thinking, which I'm sure I am, by the way, then, as I said, this is a good example of the Russians playing chess. I am not convinced that this is, as I said, the correct approach, but there it is.

I just wanted to say something about Trump's outbursts, which is that I think that these flashes of anger are real. I think Trump is generally angry at how long and difficult and complicated this process is becoming. And he is lashing out at Putin about this. Well, I wonder whether this anger is solely and exclusively with Putin, actually, whether what Trump isn't angry about is the fact that, as I said, he's hedged around still with all of these people. He's got Lindsay Graham with his cohorts in the Senate. He's got Kellogg and Rubio within the administration. That Trump, um,

that if it was up to him, he and Putin could come to this wonderful deal with each other, and that this is something that is pulling him back all the time, making his own life very complicated, that is incredibly distracting, and that this is partly what is behind all this anger that we see. I don't know. Trump is a difficult man to assess, but it could be that way too. Yeah, but, okay, Graham, you can't do much about. I mean, you can try to primary him, but Trump did the opposite. He campaigned with Graham.

He wanted Graham to be a senator. He supports Graham. So Graham, okay. He's not in the administration. He's not in Trump's cabinet. Rubio may be a little bit more difficult to deal with. He is your secretary of state. He does have a lot of support in the Senate and in Congress.

But Kellogg? Kellogg's just an envoy. You could fire him in five minutes, and he's gone. He's out the door. But Trump not only keeps him on board, it seems as if Kellogg is the person that he's listening to. Of course, this could all be theater on Trump's part. because Kellogg is constantly talking. Okay, he had about a week or two where he went silent, but now I think you explained it very well.

He was busy typing out the Ukraine's memorandum, right? He could easily remove Kellogg. Wakehoff has gone silent. Oh, no. Is that a good sign? Is that a bad sign? I mean, you know, Trump. can easily, one headache that he could easily remove is Kellogg if Trump genuinely wants to

deal with Putin. He is the president of the United States at the end of the day. And he makes it out to be that he's this, this all-powerful, very decisive, incredible art of the deal manager. And you're telling me you can't, you can't resolve an issue with Kellogg, with Keith Kellogg. Really? Well, it's ridiculous. And Whitkoff has been completely sidelined, it seems. I know. Maybe something's happening behind the scenes. Maybe there's a good thing.

Maybe this is not a good thing. I don't know. What are your thoughts on this? Well, can I just say, again, I mean, for the theory, and it's only a theory, the one that I just proposed to be effective, then it must be the case that Trump believes that his political position in the United States is much weaker than I actually personally think it is. I mean, he does have lots of problems with the bureaucracy, and we've just had another federal judge, who is now just given another order, executive order, in effect, saying that Trump

isn't entitled, authorized to make tariff decisions. I mean, you know, so, I mean, he's got all of that to face up to, and until we get a Supreme Court decision there, which, by the way, I think will be in his favor. You know, he's got, he's got to contend with all of that. He's got to contend with Lindsey Graham, he's got to contend with State Department, he's got to contend with Rubio. My own personal view is that, electorally, what matters, well, politically, what matters for Trump is the support of his base, he's electoral base. And on this, I think they're absolutely clear. I've been looking at, you know, what the MAGA people have been saying. And it seems to me that they want to see the United States walk away from Ukraine. They do not want the United

States involved in Ukraine. So I think if Trump simply sacked Kellogg tomorrow, you know, there might be some people who would be very angry. You'd get the concerned editorials and the New York Times. You'd get the angry statements in the Senate. You'd get statements maybe from Lindsay Graham saying, you know, why exactly was Kellogg removed and Lindsay Graham coming to the White House and demanding to see Trump for some explanations and things of that kind? I think Trump could just brush all of that of, because ultimately, he is in the stronger political position. In fact, if anything, is Lindsay Graham, I think, who is up for re-election in two years, who is in the weaker position. But, you know, maybe Trump doesn't see that. Maybe Trump is so badly burnt

by his experiences in his first term that he's afraid to go straight out and take off these people. I don't know. I'm just speculating here. And, you know, it's an overcomplicated game that the Russians are playing. And it doesn't seem to be a very convincing game that Trump is playing either. Maybe Putin and Trump, as I said, are feeling their way towards each other. But they're both going about it in a very strange way. And I'm not convinced that this is a good thing at all. And as I said many times, as we've said many times in many programs,

I think Trump should have walked away from Ukraine from day one. I still believe that was a politically sustainable and strong position to take. I don't think he should have had anything to do with Kellogg or people like him. And I also think that Putin is making life much harder for himself than it needs to be by engaging in this charade of the Americans being mediators. They cannot possibly be that. I mean, obviously, no. Yeah.

No one ever brings up the fact that Russia is playing along with this. No one ever brings it up. Everyone is upset with Trump. Everyone is upset with us when we try to analyze Trump, right? We try to analyze Trump and everyone gets upset with us. You guys are Uber MAGA, you're super Trump supporters. When will you guys wake up from this Trump spell? But we are the only channel that is actually saying, you know what?

It is the Russians. It is Putin that is going along with this charade. Yes. So my question to you, my final question is comment on what I've said, but also what happens if this does blow up in the Kremlin's face, this strategy, this this overcomplicated theater that they're going along with. What if this doesn't work out the way they're hoping it? works out? Or the way you believe they're hoping it works out. The risk they run is, as I said,

that we get into a situation where they're blamed for the breakdown of the negotiations. Sanctions are imposed on them, including secondary sanctions, imposed on third countries, India, China, and the others. And the Chinese and the Indians are furious with the Russians for landing them in that position and say, you know, you should have made the concessions to Trump. it's all your fault that you didn't, and the Russians have to take real pressure from the Indians and the Chinese over that. That is the risk. That's the big risk that the Russians are running if this happens, that they will put their relations with their own allies, their own friends, their BRICS partners under strain. Now, I don't know how great that risk actually is,

And that's, I think, possibly what is emboldening the Russians to play this complicated game that Putin may say to him, so, look, I'm making my love very, very difficult. I'm getting all these horrible articles about me, you know, playing for time in the media in the West. But then they hate me anyway. So, I mean, what do I lose from that? As for Trump, well, perhaps he might turn against me in the end. but then if he does, so what? I mean, sooner or later, given the whole pace of events, we would have ended up with something like this kind of sanctions anyway.

So I'm not really risking anything. So I'll try this, see whether it works out. I'll put my negotiators to an awful lot of hard work. I'll put Lavrov to an awful lot of hard work. I'll put Lavrov to an awful lot of hard work as well. I'll have to keep the Chinese and the Indians fully briefed and fully informed about what I'm doing so that they at least understand some of what I'm doing. And if it works out, then it'll have been worth the game.

As I said, I'm not convinced it will work out, but I think this is perhaps what Putin is saying to himself, that the risks he's running are not ultimately that great because it's unlikely in the end, that the Chinese and the Indians and all of those, very unlikely, I mean, unlikely to the point of extreme improbability, that they will enforce the kind of sanctions that Trump, rather than Lindsey Graham is talking about. And I think Trump, by the way, understands this. He doesn't want to impose these sanctions. I mean, there was talk again. There was clearly, there was that Wall Street Journal story about Trump being about to impose sanctions on Russia. And then we got a CNN report saying there were going to be token sanctions.

And then we got Trump himself coming out saying, I don't actually really want to impose sanctions because if I do that, you know, it's going to wreck negotiations. I think Trump understands very well that the only party that's going to suffer from those sanctions is, in fact, the United States and the West generally, not Russia at all. So I think that Trump understands all of this. And as I said, because he understands all of this, I think this explains his anger. He's absolute frustration that he's constantly been pushed into these positions. And as I said, he bursts out and sometimes he says horrible things about Putin. He's also continuing to say very bad things about Zelensky as well, by the way, which people are ignoring.

But, I mean, they're not complimentary things that he's saying about Zelensky. So he's not yet signing fully with Zelensky or anything of that kind. Anyway, but that, you asked me the question, whether what would be the worst outcome for the Russians. I think it would be that. Not that the Europeans would blame them, not that the Americans are going to blame them, because, to be frank, that's no different from what we've seen for the last three years. It's that their friends in the global South will blame them. And that could be very, very difficult indeed.

Well, I was actually hoping that you would mention something about Putin domestic, domestically in Russia, actually, and some of the blowback. Just very quickly, I just want to say that Trump put himself in this position. So he may be frustrated. Let's say he really is frustrated and he really is angry. He's absolutely putting most of the blame on Putin. His comments coming out, whether it's from the State Department, whether it's from, from what's your name, Carolyn Levitt, all the comments are basically saying the same thing.

Russia will be blamed if there's no deal. And Russia will be punished if there's no deal. That's without a doubt. They're not saying Ukraine will be blamed. They're not saying Ukraine will be punished. And they make it out as if Trump has leverage over Russia, which he doesn't. But he absolutely has leverage over Ukraine, which it looks like he's not ready to exercise. Anyway, I just wanted to make that point.

But domestically, can't you make the argument that if this all falls apart, the hardliners in Russia at the Kremlin, of which there are hardlin, might tell Putin, you know what? Once again, you slow walk the SMO, you pause the SMO. We had a bunch of ceasefires. Instead of going for the victory, you emboldened the collective West. Now they're talking about tourist missiles. Now, they're talking about a Black Sea initiative. You're giving them more time to rearm. You're giving them more time to plan.

Can't that argument be made as well if this all falls apart? Oh, absolutely. When I was in St. Petersburg, I was struck by the fact that there was actually criticism. Didn't mention Putin. And it was all at a very abstract level, as you would expect with lawyers. But one of the panels I attended, one of the participants, who was Russian, said, you know, why is it that we, you know, we are, we are so reticent in what we say? Why did we not go out much earlier and talk about how completely wrong and illegal this

rules-based international order is, how it has absolutely no foundation in international law? Why did we not support more strongly countries? And again, he didn't name the countries, but you can not. imagine which countries he's talking about, Libya, Syria, Iraq, whatever, you know, that found themselves at the receiving end of the so-called rules-based international order and all of that. So, you know, that that current of opinion does absolutely exist in Russia. I had to say, whilst I was in Russia, my overall sense was that Putin's political position is very solid. I think that at, you know, the level both of elites and wider society, there is a lot of, I mean, there's very, I mean, there's overwhelming support for him and a feeling that he has managed this conflict up to now with great skill and that that fact is appreciated. I suspect within the military and within some people in the security system, there is more criticism. A lot of that.

criticism that you're talking about. And if this does blow up and Russia is blamed, I can tell you what I suspect the overall feeling will be. There will be some criticism of Putin. There'll be a lot of criticism of Putin. But among some people, there will also be also a sense of relief that finally we can put all this nonsense and put negotiations aside and we can just press forward and win the war, as we're perfectly able to do. And wasn't that essentially what Medvedev was saying in that speech to the very same legal forum, which I participated in that, you know, this is Ukraine's last chance.

You know, if Ukraine doesn't pull it together and isn't being more realistic about this, there's not going to be any more negotiations. We're just going to press on and achieve total victory. And I think that that is the feeling of pretty much everybody in Moscow. There will be a sense of relief about it rather than alarm. The fear that I think used to exist that Putin was going to make a bad piece, I got the sense that that had dissipated. Hmm. Okay. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, Idaece.

shoot telegram rock for the next go to the Duran shop pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update the link is in the description box down below take care