The Duran Podcast - Russia-US talks; Two negotiation tracks, two different goals

Episode Date: April 4, 2025

Russia-US talks; Two negotiation tracks, two different goals

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Project Ukraine and let's focus on the negotiations and the diplomacy in and around Project Ukraine. The collective West is very much talking about how Putin is stalling, the unconditional ceasefire. He does not want to agree to an unconditional ceasefire and Putin is stalling. So Lindsey Graham is screaming about oil sanctions on secondary oil sanctions on Russia. There's talks about getting very tough with Russia to the point where the United States is seizing Russia's shadow fleet tankers, putting a blockade in the Baltic Sea. Crazy talk, all kinds of crazy talk. Meanwhile, we have Dimitriev and Witkoff meeting in the United States.

They're talking about business and business cooperation. And we have Kellogg. Kellogg is back. He has returned and he is speaking to the media. He told Fox News that we are very close. The U.S. is very close at getting Russia and Ukraine to agree to an overall ceasefire complete 30-day ceasefire. He said that once they agreed to a 30-day ceasefire, then the chances of returning to war are very small. That is what Kellogg said. And he also said

that both sides are going to have to make concessions. It's an interesting statement coming from Kellogg following up on the New York Times article, which says that the United States was very much a part of this war, if not the main actor in this war with Russia. So here you have Kellogg positioning the United States as a mediator, telling both sides that they're going to have to make concessions. The United States, Russia and Ukraine are going to have to make concessions. That's the statement from Kellogg. He disappeared for a while, but now he's back. Anyway, your thoughts on all of the diplomacy that is unfolding. Well, I think the first thing to say is that, of course, there is this, a new talking point,

which is that the Russians are stalling about a ceasefire. It is an absurd one. Nobody has ever explained what an unconditional ceasefire actually is. When Putin said, you know, who's going to enforce it, who's going to police it, who's going to do all of those sorts of things? He's absolutely right. Now, what the Europeans and the neocons in the United States, and there are still some, and in the administration as well, what they basically want is this.

The Russians to stop advancing, the European troops to go in, the United States to go on, the Europeans and the United States to go on arming Ukraine. And then, of course, sooner or later, the ceasefire will break down because nobility will be enforcing it properly. Like the 30-day ceasefire on the attacks on the energy systems has already broken down. In fact, it's not just broken down. It is not being honored. I mean, there is no doubt at all that Ukraine, for example, is conducting attacks on the Russian energy system. The Guardian admitted as much.

So, I mean, you know, we don't really need to have any doubts about this. So the ceasefire will immediately inevitably break down with the European troops in Ukraine, with the American still arming Ukraine, with the Europeans still arming Ukraine. At which point, of course, the whole situation will be completely different and Russia will be blamed for the breakdown in the ceasefire. The Guardian blames Russia for the energy breakdown. They admit that Ukraine is breaking it, but they blame Russia. Why?

How? Exactly. Exactly. Precisely. That is obviously a situation the Russians cannot agree to. Now, Kellogg comes along. he talks all the time about how they're very, very close to a ceasefire, that if a ceasefire is agreed, there won't be a resumption of the fighting. If a ceasefire is agreed on the basis of,

you know, the unconditional ceasefire proposal that he presumably still advocates, that absolutely guarantees that there will be a resumption of the fighting. There will, at some point, may not happen immediately, but probably will happen pretty quickly. The fighting will resume. If there's going to be a proper ceasefire, proper safeguards, satisfactory to both sides have to be put in place, and we are very, very far from agreeing what they are. Now, Kellogg spins this talk, you know, that they're very close, we're almost there. I'm tired, by the way, of hearing this from American officials. To my mind, this is clearly an attempt to put pressure on the Russians,

and the Russians are pushing back against it, because, of course, the messaging from the Russians is completely different. Now, Lavrov gave a interview. It was actually a short interview. It was one question, and then he gave a long answer. And he basically outlined what the answer. actual talks that are taking place with the Americans at the moment really are. So about the energy ceasefire, all that's happened is that the Russians have provided a list

to Rubio and Walsh of all of Ukraine's breaches of the ceasefire. Putin is asking the Russian Defense Ministry to provide a report about this, and that's clearly intended to be sent to the Americans. So there's no actual real negotiations as far as I can see on a substantive ceasefire at all at the moment. The Russians are not happy with the fact that this energy ceasefire is being violated. And that's what they are going to be talking to the Americans about over the next couple of days and weeks. That is one. The second is that there is the Black Sea initiative, the grain deal. Now, Lavrov again said that on this issue, there is consensus between the United States and Russia. The Americans gave the Russians some kind of written undertaking

that the United States would work to get these sanctions that the European Union has imposed lifted. The Europeans have refused to do that, as we know. Now, that opened. up all kinds of questions, will the United States start to put pressure on the Europeans to lift those sanctions? Or in the alternative, will the United States and Russia come to some understanding with each other that will allow Russian food and fertilizer products to trade without hindrance through agencies and mechanisms set up independently of the European Union by the United States. So the United States can provide insurance.

The United States can provide banking services. Just say, there's no reason why the United States can't do that. There are issues of messaging systems and bank messaging systems, but people overstate that. Because you can still, if you create a deposit, for example, a corresponding deposit in American banks, for Russian banks, you can still transfer money through the pre-Swift mechanisms, which I very well remember, promissory notes and that kind of thing. And of course, the United States and Russia are perfectly capable of setting up

some kind of messaging system between each other. I don't know that this is what is being discussed, but those options are there. In other words, the Americans and the Russians might agree to circumvent the EU sanctions. Lavrov seemed quite optimistic about this. Now, Dmitrieff has just gone to Washington. He seems to be talking about these things with Witkoff. apparently their meeting in the White House itself, which makes me wonder whether Trump himself is going to join in at some point or at least turn up at the meeting. We might not have pictures or photos or anything of that kind.

But anyway, there are discussions between the Russians and the Americans about this. And that, it seems to me, is what is the real movement at the moment. Yeah, Waltz Kellogg, still talking about ceasefires, still taking this very hard line that the Russians must agree as unconditional ceasefire, which I think the Russians rightly say is unworkable and makes no sense at all. The Europeans are doing all of that, or talking on that kind of way as well. The Russians and the Americans, by contrast, according to Lavrov and according to Walt, we see are negotiating about something completely different, which is actually some kind of either relaxation of the existing sanctions or some work around, agreed between them about that, so as to allow food and fertilizer products from Ukraine and Russia to be exported freely. So that's one thing. And then Lavrov said that there's the third issue that the Americans and the Russians are talking about,

which is the removal of obstacles to the functioning of the embassies to full diplomatic engagement again. And there's apparently another meeting being prepared in Istanbul to take this further. And Lavrov seemed to think that quite a lot of progress was being made. So, discussions on economic questions with the Black Sea initiative being set up as, you know, the issue that people are talking about. But getting food, the priority seems to be to get Russian food and fertilizer, trading again on international global markets and perhaps to the United States, maybe with workarounds for arranged by the United States. setting up contacts, diplomatic contacts. But on the substantive issues, the ceasefire, I don't really see any movement at all. And the Russians have said they had their hard man in the foreign ministry, Sergei

Yavkov, who is a deputy foreign minister. He said that on this issue, they've heard nothing from the Americans at all. The Americans have come up with no substantive. proposals on how what the Russians call the root causes of the conflict are going to be resolved. So this is where we really are. We have Kellogg and Waltz still stuck with, you know, ceasefires, threatening the Russians with further sanctions, all that kind of thing. Wit Goff, perhaps Trump, working in a completely different way with Demetriyff in the White House discussions going on about trade issues. It looks to me as if we have two completely

contradictory tracks within the administration going on at one of the same time. And I suspect that Trump instinctively leans more to the Wick-Gov track than he does to the Woolscar-Log one. I was going to ask you that very question. What is the real, who are the real negotiators here? Is it Waltz, Kellogg and Rubio? I guess you could throw Rubio in there. Or is it Witkoff? Which track is the real track that we should be following? Is it the ceasefire track, phase one, energy ceasefire, phase two, black sea ceasefire, phase three, overall, 30-day ceasefire?

Or is it this other track that Whitkoff is exploring with Dimitriev, which is business? Open up business ties, normalized relations and let's get business going. And we'll see how we deal with everything else, right? Is the ceasefire, this three-phase ceasefire plan that Kellogg talked about the other day on Fox News that Trump always talks about that Waltz talks about, is this a fake out? Is it keeping everyone busy? Is it keeping the Europeans busy? Is it keeping Kayakal is busy? Is it keeping Ursula busy?

Is it keeping Kellogg and Walt's busy? Well, I wonder, actually. Just your thoughts. I don't know which one. Has Trump decided? I don't know. Maybe Trump hasn't decided. No, maybe Trump himself hasn't decided.

I mean, I don't know. What I will say is this. We do have Demetrius meeting with Whitgoth in the White House. Now, that is very interesting. Dmitriyev is an economics person, trade person. He is not there to discuss the ceasefire things and that kind of thing. That's something that people like Ryabkov and presumably people from the military would be doing. So we have no discussions on that track, whereas we do have discussions on the business track.

Now, Wikov himself is a businessman. He is also a personal friend of Trump's. And the other point to say about Witkoff is why is he there involved in these negotiations at all? Now, Mirzheimer, he said to me this, he said to us this in an actual program that he did, that the reason Whitgoff is involved in these discussions is obviously because Trump doesn't trust the other so-called negotiators. He doesn't really trust Kellogg and Wolves. Now, I think that is probably true. So that is presumably why Whitgov has been plucked out of his business in New York to run this thing. And if that is correct, and I can't see any other explanation myself, than the real negotiation

is the one that is being conducted by Whitcomb, which is all about business, which is very much in line with Trump's personality. I wonder how all of this fits into the recent Signalgate controversy surrounding Waltz and this latest Washington Post claim. It's a claim that the Waltz staff was using Gmail to communicate. I wonder how all of this fits into this negotiations puzzle. Well, I'm going to think, I'm going to say this. I think it probably does.

And I'm going to say something else. Now, this flows from a conversation you and I had, which we had outside our programs. But you said that you thought there was a possibility that Wals and Goldberg had been in regular contact before that meeting took place. And this is why Waltz had Goldberg's telephone. number on his mobile phone. Now, then Waltz denied it. He said that he'd never had any contacts with Goldberg at all. It then became increasingly clear that all kinds of MAGA people didn't believe him. There was a very interesting article in the Federalist, which is, you know, one of the very strong MAGA media outlets. This was about a week ago. Shortly after, almost directly after

We had that conversation in which they said that Walts's denials don't make any real sense. They don't stack up. So, I mean, that was, you know, from a hardline, tough, very intelligent MAGA news website. And now we have Goldberg himself apparently saying, well, actually, you know, we had, Walter and I absolutely have spoken. We have been in contact in the past. So here is a possible, possible explanation of what happened. And I'm only, you know, this is a guess.

I don't know it and it may not be right with Signalgate. I suspect that perhaps, perhaps, Waltz did have Goldberg's phone number on his phone because as Goldberg says, as you thought might be the case. and as the Federalist undoubtedly suspects, Waltz and Goldberg have been in contact with each other. Waltz has a history as being, well, pretty near corn, if I have to be frank, which is very much Goldberg's perspective. So maybe they have been in contact with each other.

Maybe they have been passing information between each other. I'm not saying, you know, leaks or some things like that, but having discussions, Waltz, telling things to Goldberg, which perhaps go beyond what some of the people in the administration might be having with. To push the New Yorkan agenda. You push the neogon agenda, exactly.

Then either by mistake or whatever Goldberg is then admitted into this call, he hears all that's going on. Notice that the whole call was supposed, the whole, it wasn't called the mess, the, the track, noticed that the chat was supposed to be completely deleted after three weeks, which, whereas they're supposed to be preserved for, I believe, several years, but maybe it was going to be deleted because there was worry, there was already concerns right at the start, even before that, you know, somebody

might be involved in the call who shouldn't be there and they didn't want the, fact to be noticed. And then somehow there were concerns about this. Somehow it became noticed that Goldberg was indeed on the call. On the chat, rather than on the chat. And then Goldberg rushed out an article in the Atlantic because notice he waited before he published his piece. The reason he published that article is because then it became a media story and he's a journalist. And he's getting, he's giving himself First Amendment Act, First Amendment protection, because he can say, well, I was in on this chat. Maybe I shouldn't have been, but maybe I should have disclosed immediately that I'm on this chat and this was a mistake.

But I was doing my job as a journalist and I have the protection of the First Amendment of the Constitution. Whereas if he had simply stopped done nothing, maybe, maybe the there might have been action taken against him. Now, all of this, I want to stress, his speculation is theorising. I don't know. But anyway, we have this story. We have those suspicions in the Federalist,

which is, I know, a media site, which is central to the MAGA movement. And we also have now the revelations that Wals has been using Gmail. Well, he denies it, of course. But, I mean, there are reports circulating that Wals has been. be using Gmail. Could it be that somebody's coming afterwards?

Just a second. Yeah, I agree. I agree. I'm just trying to figure out who. If that is the case. Well, is it a white hat or is it a black hat that's coming after Waltz? I don't know. I mean, I don't know, but given the coverage in the Federalist, I would have thought that it's more likely to be. be someone from the mega site of the administration. Just saying. So if the track is towards Whitkoff, what does that mean for relations between the U.S. and Russia? What does that mean for Project Ukraine? If the track is towards business, let's get business established first. Let's get a normalization of ties established first. By the way, I think that's a much a thousand ties better strategy than this ridiculous three-tier ceasefire, three-phase ceasefire plan.

I think the ceasefire plan is stupid, but normalizing ties between the two countries and then building the relationship in terms of business. And then thinking about Project Ukraine, solving Project Ukraine, I think is a much better track to follow. But what does it mean if this is indeed the true? track, the Whitkoff business track and the ceasefire is just some sort of a fake out of fate or something like that. Well, everything about Trump suggests that he doesn't believe in Project Ukraine, that he thinks

it was a massive mistake, a colossal diversion of resources, and something that placed the United States, and by the way, the world, in extreme danger. And the New York Times article tells us that he's absolutely right about that. I mean, he's right in every respect. I think he wants to close down Project Ukraine. Now, if the Witkoff track is the true one, and my sense is more likely than not it is, I can't be sure, but that's my feeling.

I mean, inviting someone like Dimitriov to come all the way to Moscow, to Washington, and have him meet with Witkoff in the White. That does seem to me send a signal that this is, you know, the real, that's the place where the real discussions are having. They lifted sanctions on him as well. They lifted sanctions on him, exactly. And you remember, Whitgolf also met with Putin, I mean, which is more than Waltz or Kellogg ever done.

Kellogg hasn't even been to Moscow. I mean, he could have done that in the first days after he was appointed, but he never did. So anyway, I would have thought that was the real track. if that is the real track and we do get to business relations, well, I simply cannot see that project Ukraine has any purpose anymore. And I think at that point, Trump will move as quickly as he can to finally and conclusively shut it down. Now, if the Americans do have to create a workaround with the Russians to get round European sanctions, if Zelensky refuses to sign the mineral rights

extraction deal. And all the rhetoric from Kiev at the moment is that he cannot. Then, as we discussed in our previous program, when we discussed this, it's Trump's way of finally putting this thing to bed. He could say, look, we've done everything we can. We've done far more than we should have done. This is a disastrous mistake. Let's now start dealing with a country that can actually provide material benefits to us instead of being a massive drain on us, which is what Ukraine is. Now, of course, the Europeans will explode.

The neocons will be furious. but I think Trump actually probably does have the political space in Washington to do that. And I think that is his own inclination. But, you know, again, I want to stress, I don't know this for a fact. We'll just have to see. And even if it is his inclination, it may be that the forces that are arrayed against this in Washington are too strong. But I have to say this. The Witgoth, Dimitriev talks do look like a classic American-Russian back channel.

Robert Kennedy and the Soviet ambassador Anatoly Dubrini had a back channel due of the Cuban Missile Crisis. And that was how the actual negotiations were concluded. Kierzinger had a back channel also with Dubrini in the 1970s, and that was what led to the breakthrough in the salt negotiations, the Strategic Arms Limitation Treaties. Kisinger also had a back channel with the North Vietnamese through the North Vietnamese polyp, you remember, Le Duktu. So there were the negotiations that were taking place in Paris with, you know, all kinds of delegations there, but the real negotiations were happening between Kissinger and Lady

Kisinger being, of course, Nixon's national security advisor, not at that time a member of the State Department. And this looks a bit like this. It looks like, again, a kind of back-channel negotiation between two businessmen, because Dmitriov is ultimately a businessman. And one wonders whether that is the real discussion, the real negotiation, which is actually taking place completely different from the formal negotiations that happen in Riyadh with Karasin and Anton and all of those people. That is really being bypassed. That is for show to keep exactly as he suggested the Europeans and the Ukrainians distracted. Okay, that would be amazing if that was indeed the case. But let's get to a final question, which is what if it's not?

What if we get a bolting moment? Which we might do. Yeah. I mean, we had what we had. Yeah, the neocons, you know, they get the best of, they get the better of Trump. Trump says, okay, you're right, Waltz, you're right, Kellogg. Let's push ceasefire. You're right, Lindsay.

Let's push 500%. secondary, all sanctions or whatever. Let's block the Baltic. Let's really stick it to Russia. The sanctions are at level three against Russia. Let's crank them up to level 10. And let's really put the herd on Russia and force them to the negotiating table. What if that is the scenario? Then what does that mean for Russia Ukraine? It is an absolute disaster. I mean, the war goes on. The Russians win. There's a deeper, much deeper economic crisis in the West because global trade in oil and other products is massively disrupted. And we discussed this previously in an earlier program.

The Russians can absorb the shock of that kind of economic war. And Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister, has just gone to Moscow and he's been making all kinds of statements about how, you know, this relationship with Russia is so important that he is not going to be negotiated and it will not be subject to interference by third parties, which basically means that the Chinese have made a political decision to stick by the Russians on this. So it would be an absolute disaster. Now, Kellogg talks about, you know, that sanctions enforcement is at level three. And we know. need to move all the way up to level 10. No, I heard all this before, or rather to be more precise,

I read all of this before. I remember back in February 22, before the sanctions were, the Biden sanctions were imposed. There was a major briefing in the White House. There was a huge, you know, transcript provided by the White House, the Biden White House. The Biden White House. We're talking about the Biden White House. And it was all an anonymous White House official. Everybody, I think, suspects it was Jake Sullivan. And he said that what we will do if Russia invades Ukraine is we will go to the absolute top limit of the sanctions.

And we will say there the previous sanctions that Obama imposed. you know, the Trump people and Trump's first term imposed, they were wishy, washy, dizzery sanctions that this time we're going to go all the way from one to ten, and we're going to really hit the Russians. We're going to sot them. You didn't actually say exactly what they would do, but we know that, you know, they froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank. They disconnected Russia from Swift, which was supposed to be the nuclear option.

and all of that. So Kellogg comes along now, and he doesn't perhaps realize that he's simply repeating exactly the same rhetoric as the Biden people were using back in February 2020. He is, they assumed that the sanctions they were imposing on Russia were the worst sanctions that could possibly be imposed. And here is Kellogg today saying, well, actually, You know, they're really wishy-washy dithery sanctions. We're going to go all the way up. Oh, you know, a huge number of notches further. It is absolutely a case of doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result.

If Trump goes down this route, it will be Biden too plus. it will be Biden, falling back into doing the things that Joe Biden was doing and, you know, the Biden administration was doing without, of course, any real belief in it and without any real conviction and with far worse consequences. Just a final question. We'll get into this in more depth in a military update video that we'll do on Project Ukraine, but just a quick comment on the fact that Hegset is not going to be at the next, I believe it's the contact group meeting. What are your thoughts there? We'll get into depth on this in another video, but very quickly.

I think this is very important, actually, because again, you see the division. Again, I think within this administration, between the more conventionally minded neocom thinking type people, Waltz, Kellogg, people like that, and the more hardline MAGA people, I personally think Hegseth is one of them. Again, the point about Hegseth is that he comes completely from outside the normal military, you know, political, industrial elite, which has historically provided the defense secretaries. So again, Trump reached up for someone who wasn't like them. And he reached out for someone who, frankly, seems much more to be in tune with MAGA thinking

than, you know, the Waltz, Kellogg, perhaps Ruby or Axis are. So he doesn't want to be at this meeting because he doesn't believe in Project Ukraine either. He also sees it as a disastrous diversion of American resources, as he made pretty clear back in February at the time the Munich Security Conference and the Ramstein meeting. And Heggseth is now saying that the real threat is China. We must divert everything we've got to facing down China. That's priority number one. Everything else must be relegated to that first overriding priority.

So again, I suspect that Heg says, is closer to the thinking of Trump and the Maga people than he is to the Rubio-Waltz-Kelog group. The trouble is, and I'm going to say this, I think that Hegsses is very inexperienced. He's very, very new to all of this. I think that he's still finding his way. He's perhaps somebody who's more easily swayed than perhaps some of the more hard line, more committed mega people. Perhaps Vance and people like that are just as same. Okay.

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