The Duran Podcast - Russian bases in Syria. Erdogan in control

Episode Date: December 18, 2024

Russian bases in Syria. Erdogan in control

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Syria. Will the Russian base stay or will it go? What is the situation in Syria like? What is Turkey doing with the Kurds? What did Blinken accomplish in Ankara? Israel said that they are staying in the Golden Heights and whatever territory they captured. They're not going anywhere.

Meanwhile, Jolani is putting on a, I don't want to say, and tie, but he's ditching the greens, the green fatigues, and he's now wearing a dress shirt and the blazer. He's also calling on bricks to help him out. What is going on in Syria? Well, I think we can frankly disregard Jolani and HTS and all of that, because as we discuss in our previous program, Jolani HTS are a phantom. Apparently there's a report that the head of Turkish military intelligence came to Damascus and Jalani acted as his chauffeur. So, I mean, literally was driving him around apparently. So, you know, it's not as if Jalani has any real power or authority to do anything in Syria

at the moment. He is just there as HTS is there. They're providing these, if you like, the paint, the surface paint. and everything else that goes on behind the scenes is controlled by Erdogan and by Turkey. And Turkey currently is in overall control of Syria. Now, at the moment, Erdogan is determined so far as I can see to break the PKK, to break the Kurdish militias. I gather he made it absolutely clear to Blinken. So that is his overriding objective.

Apparently there's increasing amount of fighting in the east of Turkey between the Kurdish militia and forces that are, we're told, backed by Turkey. I understand that those forces, to all intents and purposes, are the Turkish military. In other words, special forces groups put together by the Turkish military. There's large numbers of Uyghurs and people like that, you know, from across Central Asia who Erdogan has put together in a kind of expeditionary force, and it is they who are doing the fighting.

But that is what is happening in Syria. Overall, Turkey, to the extent that anybody runs it, Turkey does. under one runs it. He's always wanted to control Syria, and he is controlling Syria. And there is large-scale chaos. I'm not going to add much to what we said in our previous programs, but the chaos itself continues. It's not reported very much in the Western media, but if you look below the surface, you can find lots of examples of it. The most interesting and intriguing thing is the fact that it's become increasingly clear to me that Erdogan and therefore HTS are trying to persuade the Russians to stay. And there's been these long negotiations.

Jolani is talking about the bricks, which again, of course, Erdogan has now navigated Turkey into the got partnership membership in the bricks and all of that. They're trying to keep the Russians in. And there are negotiations and there are discussion. These discussions don't seem to be leading to any outcome. I get to say bluntly, I think the Russians are stringing HTS and ultimately Erdogan along. They're pulling their troops, their people back from across Syria. They're getting safe conduct from HTS. They're evacuating all their equipment.

They are apparently evacuating a lot of Syrians who worked with them. And this has been going on quietly. There's an article about this in the Financial Times. And there was also an article about this from Reuters. And they're quietly dismantling their equipment and they're transferring it to new airfield. fields that they're operating from in Libya, and they give every indication as far as I can see that they're intending to go. Their own choice.

Their own choice. Yeah, this is their own choice to go. Yeah. Yeah. Why would Edrawan want to keep the base there? I mean, there's the leverage part, but is that really all there is to it? No, it's not. I mean, it's not.

He, like Assad in a way, he wants to use the power of the Russians. to help him stabilize and secure Syria. He doesn't want to be left dealing with all the chaos by himself. He also wants the Russians to scare off the Americans and to keep the Israelis in check. So he would rather have the basis, the Russian basis in Syria. And of course, you're talking about leverage. With only one leverage always matters. He, well, if the Russian basis are there, he's also got leverage over the Russians and that will help him in his dealings with the bricks and all of that kind of things. If you look at this purely from Erdogan's point of view, you can understand why he would want the Russians to stay. So that's why we are having these

discussions. I do think the Russians have any intention of staying. This is my own view. I want to stress, I mean, this is my own guess. But I think the Russians, um, don't want to give Erdogan that degree of leverage. They don't certainly don't want to help pick up the pieces in Syria on Erdogan's behalf. All of the indications that I see, the actual physical indications, is that they are conducting a very orderly withdrawal, in contrast of the chaotic, disorganized withdrawal that the Americans carried out from Afghanistan back in 2021. So that's the contrast. That's the difference. What about Israel?

Are they done taking the whatever territory they want? Have they created the buffer zone, the security zone, whatever they called it? For the moment. Mr. Katz called it. For the moment. Have they finished? And is this going to be enough? Is this going to be the plan for Israel in order to launch strikes into Iran?

Is that the plan? Yeah. I think, first of all, I mean, I'm glad you brought up the second point because they're now, they've now completely destroyed. what, you know, Syria once extensive air defense system. And there are increasingly increasing signs that they are going to use the destruction of Syria's air defense system, which is in a kind of aware, kind of forward part of Iran's air defense system in order to prepare for a big missile strike against Iran. The Israelis are not done. They've occupied the remaining. part of the Golan Heights. They've occupied some territory within Syria itself, two or three times

bigger than Gaza. I suspect that we're going to see moves towards annexing some of these territories before long and probably establishing settlements on them. And if they're going to launch strikes on Iran, obviously they're going to have to, you know, this positions them well, in order to do that too. The risk that the Israelis run is that, of course, the further they go into Syria, the greater the possibility that they could get drawn in to see unfolding chaos, which is currently the one's problem. So for the moment, I think, they've got what they wanted.

They've, in my opinion, come out the big immediate winners from this whole. affair and I think that they understand that and that they're careful at the moment not to extend themselves too deeply. But whether they'll be able to continue to do that over the long term is another question. I think that they have, they've got two priorities at the moment. Priority one is to prepare for the strike on Iran, which I think is definitely coming now. Priority, is to prevent this huge number of weapons that exist in Syria, not just the air defense missiles and all of that, but the small arms and all of those things to find their way into the West Bank, in, you know, the Israeli-controlled West Bank and into Gaza and to places

like that. And there are reports that they're now talking to the Jordanians about it. All right. And the United States, real quick. Well, the United States probably has some very difficult decisions to make because they've got a long-standing commitment to the Kurds. Erdogan is now obviously preparing for an attack on the Kurds. Does the United States remain in Eastern Syria now that, if you like, mission has been accomplished and Assad has fallen? or do they go? I think in Trump's case, his instinct is to go. Of course, there will be other people who will insist that they must stay to control the oil fields, to continue to exert influence in Syria, to do all of those sort of things. So I think that it's up in the air what

the Americans intend to do. And as for the Iranians, who are the big geopolitical losers from all of this. We've now seen a whole set of statements from Pezishkan, from Arachchi. What they want to do, their immediate priority, is to deepen their military and political and economic relationship with Moscow. And they've called back their ambassador, their ambassador in Russia, back to Tehran. They've had detailed discussions with him. And this has been made very, very public there.

And he's been given apparently urgent instructions to go back to Moscow and to try to deepen the relationship. So Iran, which is up to now tended to try and avoid getting drawn into alliances, is clearly now looking for an alliance with Moscow. It sounds like the Kurds are in a bad position as well. Kurds are a terrible position. They always come out the losers from all of these conflicts. They never seem to understand that. They always back the wrong side. I mean, their interest was to come to some kind of agreement with Assad.

They never did that. They went with the Americans instead. There's an article in the Financial Times, which says that they now fear the Americans are going to betray them. Well, I have to say, like so many people, I never understand. why people make these misjudgments again and again and again, but the Kurds have just done that. Money? Not here, probably. Anyway, we'll end it there.

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