The Duran Podcast - Russian restraint comes with escalation risks

Episode Date: December 19, 2024

Russian restraint comes with escalation risks

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Russia and in Ukraine. And we have the assassination of General Kirilov, which we have to discuss. And we should discuss the possibility of a negotiation, of a peace proposal from the Trump administration. We have some statements from Kellogg that he made recently about the peace. the peace plan that Trump is preparing for when he is in the White House. We still don't have any details as to what Trump's plan is, but we are getting a lot of talk about Trump's proposal, and the Russians appear to be open to listen to Trump's proposal. Ukraine has signaled that it is not open to listening to any type of peace proposals.

They have their own peace formula in mind. And that, what else? I think that's it. We have, oh, we have more storm shadow missile strikes into Russia. Yeah. The fifth time, that's the red line has been crossed. Well, indeed. Well, indeed. And, of course, one wonders why.

I mean, I should say that as of this moment in time, I've been checking the Russian defense ministry. They haven't confirmed the last, but I presume they will over the next couple of hours. But anyway, let's talk about the negotiation process because this is, this is, it seems to, we'll come to the storm shadow attacks because, of course, this is very much connected to what the Biden, Ukraine, British governments are all up to because they can see, they can see negotiations looming over the horizon. Now, there's been an awful lot of talk about what Trump and Kellogg are going to

propose. A lot of this, when it's attributed to Trump, doesn't seem to originate with Trump himself. This is my own sense of this. People bouncing ideas of Trump. And he listens, when he nods, and people come away, and they say that he's decided on this, and he's decided on that. But if you actually track what he has been publicly saying as opposed to whatever plans he's been laying out, it's quite clear to me that there's three essential points. He wants the war to end. I don't think there's any doubt about this. He talks about the humanitarian catastrophe that is the war. He's the only Western political leader, by the way, to have done so at any time since the war started. He clearly wants to focus on the Asia-Pacific region.

He's also very worried about the threat of continuous escalation. He has now spoken twice about missile strikes on Russia and that they're a very bad idea. He said that he has vehemently opposed to these. He's also given a clear indication that he's going to stop them as soon as he becomes president. And he can. Without the involvement of the United States, these missile strikes cannot continue. Kellogg himself has come up with all kinds of proposals and discussions and talking points on the various programs that he has appeared. He says that both Ukraine and Russia are willing to talk, as you rightly say, the Russians say that they are willing to talk. They have always said at all points and time.

since the start of the special military operation that they are willing to talk. In fact, as we now know, on the very day that the special military operation began, a senior Kremlin official, Dimitri Kozak, on instructions from Putin and the rest of the Russian leadership, telephone Kiev and said to the Ukrainians, look, we are where we are, but we still want to talk. So the Russians have never slammed the door shut on talks. The Ukrainians, as you also correctly say, show no interest in or desire to talk. Neither do the major European powers.

France, Britain, Germany is slightly different because there's some divisions there. But my own view is that, especially after the February elections, We're going to see Germany harden, and they're going to come out and oppose talks also. Meanwhile, Kellogg is going out of his way to try to make it clear to the Russians that they should talk. He is not happy about the assassination that's just taken place in Moscow, the Kirillov assassination. He said that it was the wrong thing for the Ukrainians to do. There is, by the way, an article in the New York Times today, effectively essentially saying the same thing. It doesn't quite say that, but it also says that this assassination campaign that the Ukrainians have been conducting has not improved Ukraine's position by one iota.

So what you can see is that Trump wants to begin some kind of negotiation with the Russians. He's up against the fact that the Ukrainians don't want negotiation. The British, the French and probably before long the Germans don't want a negotiation. The Biden administration absolutely does not want a negotiation. Blinken has just made statements, in effect, to that exact effect. So even as Kellogg and Trump are trying to get negotiations, or at least discussions with the Russians underway, we see a continuous pattern of escalation. We see missile strikes. We see assassinations of Russian generals. We see more talk again

about confiscating Russian assets. The European Union is back having discussions. Russians about this sort of thing. We see the Biden administration providing Ukraine with a loan of $20 billion, repayable on the interest of Russian frozen assets. So we see a constant attempt to throw the balance away from negotiations. And people are looking at the Russians and they're saying, why are they not responding to this? Why are they holding out for negotiations? with Trump? Why do they want to begin discussions with Trump and with Kellogg, even as all this escalation is taking place? Why are they prepared to talk with Trump when Kellogg is coming up with all of these ideas about European peacekeepers and things of that kind? Does that mean that the Russians

are going to capitulate or are going to agree to all the things that Kellogg and Trump and co are talking about? there is no sign from anything the Russians have said that they're prepared to entertain any of these proposals. But I think that both the Americans, by which I mean the Trump team, and the Russians, want to resume a dialogue with each other. That is as important to them as peace in Ukraine. The Europeans don't like it. The Ukrainians don't like it.

and that's where we currently are. An attempt to begin dialogue probably after Trump is inaugurated. Kellogg has now confirmed that he does want to go to Moscow, but a lot of people in Europe and in the United States are doing everything they can to prevent that process getting underway. Yeah, they do want to establish a dialogue, but the fact that Russia is showing, showing so much restraint, even though an official red line has been crossed five times,

does indicate that Putin and Russia is open to a ceasefire negotiation. I mean, you know, actions and words, but the actions of Russia, which is showing restraint, after what you believe, what I believe was probably Orban telling Putin during the phone call, they're going to escalate. The Biden administration, what's going to escalate? Please show restraint. I imagine Orban told Putin something like this. And Putin probably said, okay, we'll wait for 30 days or 40 days and we'll try to show restraint, even though the Biden White House, the United States is going to attack us. And that's what's going on here. The United States continues to attack Russia to launch

for long-range missiles into Russian territory. But the fact that Russia is showing restraint means that they are interested in what the plan is going to be from Trump. And so my question to you is actually very simple. Actually, two-part question, is Russia interested in what Trump is going to present to them as far as a ceasefire plan goes? Are they genuinely interested in seeing the plan? and if the plan resembles Istanbul plus, what will the Russians say? If the plan doesn't resemble Istanbul Plus, obviously the Russians are going to reject it. But if the plan resembles, it doesn't have to be exactly the same.

But if it resembles Istanbul Plus, forget about Kellogg's plan. He's talking nonsense. I personally, I think Kellogg is completely out of touch with what's going on. That's my own personal opinion, listening to him on Fox News and listening to his statements, his casualty figures, and he goes on and on about North Korean troops. He can't put it to rest. He's bought into this North Korean thing, and it just makes him look quite uninformed about what's going on in Ukraine.

But anyway, that's Kellogg. If it is close to Istanbul plus, will Russia sit down and agree to a ceasefire, start the process of a ceasefire? Right. The first thing to say, and I think this is an absolutely essential point, is that that there is, there are talks, there is contacts, there is negotiations, and then there is a ceasefire. I think the essential thing to say is that the Russians have already said that they're prepared to sit down and talk. They've always said this. Putin was saying this back in June.

But he said that in order for there to be an actual ceasefire, which he implied would come as a result of talks, then there would have to be significant movement towards meeting the June proposals that he put to the foreign ministry. And I have to say this, as of now, there is no sign that the Russians are shifting from that. And it isn't just Putin. And of course, he's talking, he's giving a massive press conference, so he might provide more clarity on this. But this is the official line he's taking. This is the line that all the other Russian officials are taking. This is the line that Vasili Nubensia, the Russian ambassador at the UN, is also taking. So if it's Istanbul Plus, it depends how close it is to Istanbul Plus. I think that is the essential issue.

Now, the Russians have said two things. They want the Ukrainians to withdraw completely from the four regions, and they want Ukraine to publicly commit not to join NATO. And only then can there be a ceasefire. Now, up to now, they show no flexibility on that issue at all. In fact, over the last couple of days, they have been floating the same. possibility of more territories coming under their control and of them engaging in further annexations. I use the word annexations. I mean, that's the word that's used in the West, but it means Russia is simply taking more territory and treating it as Russia. So I think that for the moment,

at least, the Russians are prepared to talk. They want to establish a dialogue with the Americans. They want to talk to Trump himself. I suspect that at some point they want to speak directly with Trump. Bear in mind, there's been no contact between Biden and Putin since February 2020. So they want to reestablish some kind of dialogue with the Americans. But on the actual substance of the discussions, so far they've shown no movement at all. So they're showing restraint with the cross. of a red line in anticipation of dialogue with Trump.

Correct. That's that's all. I don't see any sign of anything else. They don't want a situation where they escalate to the point that dialogue, a resumption of a dialogue, becomes impossible. That I think is an important thing to say. Now, bear in mind that so far, of these missile strikes, which have becoming increasingly frenetic, are also proving to be, from what we can tell, completely ineffective. Now, if there is a missile strike that gets through

and does serious damage, which there is a real possibility, that might change. And Putin is now speaking again about an Oreshenic strike on Kiev, and he's goading the West. He says, we will conduct a missile strike on Kiev. We'll let you know in advance, put as many air defense systems as you like. In Kiev, a missile will still get through. So, you know, this isn't a restraint that the Russians are showing up to now, which I suspect is indefinite. It will depend on the circumstances. And there's also rumors that the Ukrainians are planning another attack on the,

upper-Ozhi nuclear power plant, they're said to be assembling troops north of the Kharkovka reservoir. If that happens, again, that may affect Russian calculations. But for the moment, I've no doubt, by the way,

that the Russians are not just doing this because they themselves want to talk to Trump. I mean, they're responding to what Orban is asking them to do. I'm sure they've been asked to do the same thing by other parties, by China, probably. So they want to get a dialogue underway with the Americans.

They probably also notice that alongside the appointment of Kellogg, Rick Brunel, who has a more realistic understanding of the situation, has just been given an ambassadorship and has been appointed ambassador at large, an ambassador on special missions. so one wonders what his role might be. But anyway, one way or the other, that's the position the Russians are taking at the present time. They're exercising restraint. They're waiting to see what Trump and Kellogg comes up with.

The plan itself, to the extent that there is a plan, I do think the Russians are very interested in, and they've made that clear. But a dialogue is important in itself. Is this not a risky strategy to wait for, Trump. I mean, it is, I mean, I understand the Russians are weighing out all the risks. And if one of the long-range missile strikes gets through, yes, that's a risk. You know, so far, yeah, they've proved ineffective, both the attack and the storm shadows, but you do run the risk that something's going to get through. You run the risk that, uh, that you have like incidents

of what we saw in Moscow with the assassination of Kirilov. Yes. The collective West is escalating more and more. They're taking more chances as we get closer to January 20th. I mean, they assassinated a general who was not part of combat in Moscow, in the capital city as he was leaving, I believe, his apartment. If you reversed the situation, it was a general in Washington, D.C., who was assassinated by, I'm not even going to say Iran or Russia or China, who was assassinated by the UK or France, it would be World War III in D.C. I mean, you know, that's how provocative. That's how crazy what the SPU did wasn't. And they accept responsibility for it. They're gloating about it.

They're bragging about it. The times of the UK is bragging about it. analysts in the West are bragging about it. Absolutely. So my point, my question is, I understand everyone that's watching this show understands what's happening and understands the game that's being played. But isn't the Kremlin taken a risk here? Because what if what if the Trump plan is nothing even close to Istanbul? What if it's exactly what Kellogg and Fred flights have floated out there? What if it's exactly that?

A freeze, 100,000 peacekeepers, Ukraine not getting into NATO for 10 years. What happens then? You've shown restraint for this amount of time. You've shown that your red lines can be crossed. You've had a general assassinated. We still have 30 days. So we don't even know what else the boss. Biden White House is cooking up.

I imagine the Trump, just on a side note, I imagine the Trump White House in very much the same way that Orban contacted Putin and said, let's show some restraint until I get into office. No doubt about it that Trump White House said the same thing to the Biden White House. And the Biden White House, I'm sure, said, show restraint, help your transition, a smooth transition. Forget about that. We're going to escalate to the full.

Yes. So, so I guess that's my, that's my question. This is a very risky strategy. It is an incredibly risk. Because it could backfire on the president. And Trump may say, oh, you don't accept my plan, which was a freeze and whatever. Okay, well, then I'm going to send $600 gazillion to the Olensky regime. It's possible. It is an incredibly, it is an incredibly risky strategy. And it depends here very much on the effectiveness of the media. Now, notice one important fact. The moment missile strikes happened,

Trump now comes out and opposes them. He says that they're a mistake. We now know, by the way, that Trump made a statement to Time magazine about this back on the 25th of November. I mean, it was conveyed to time in an interview directly after the missile strikes took place. and before the telephone call between Gerasimov and Brown, the two military chiefs. Now, I strongly suspect that the Russians had been already informed, probably through Hungary, for all I know, that Trump was strongly opposed to the missile strikes. The moment Kirillov is assassinated, Kellogg says this is a big mistake. this isn't going to help.

This is a bad idea. He could have condemned it a little bit more. He could have done that. He was very soft on Ukraine. I know, I know. But he's still said it was a mistake. And I'm going to say something. I'm going to say something.

I think he did that on instructions. I don't think it was something that he would have said of his own volition. So what I'm trying to say is the Trump people are trying to distance themselves from what the current administration is doing. On the missile strikes, they're telling the Russians, hold out, just don't do anything for now. When we get in and are making the decisions, this will stop. So, yes, that is the message that the Russians are receiving.

The Biden administration, as you absolutely rightly say, is also getting the same message of the Trump people. It is paying no attention. The Ukrainians not only are not paying any attention, they're escalating in every conceivable way they can. That was what the Karilov assassination was ultimately all about. The British, the French, are also escalating. They're talking about sending 40,000 man or 100,000 man or 150,000 man peacekeeping forces to Ukraine. They know that the Russians are going to be.

reject that. We know that Russian officials have been talking privately to various people. Anatole Levens, who is a commentator, said that a Russian official spoke to him just last week, on Thursday last week, and said to him that this is as bad for us as Ukrainian membership of NATO is. So, yes, this is a very, very risky thing. What I think the Russians expect, and this is what I'm going to guess. Kellogg is going to come to Moscow. He's going to come with all sorts of proposals. And the Russians will say no to them. But the Russians will also say to Kellogg,

look, we're not prepared to accept these proposals. We've already set out our own proposals. Let's, despite the fact that we disagree, get the dialogue going. And then they can get the dialogue moving, not just on Ukraine, but on all sorts of other matters which are mutually important as well. And I think that's the plan the Russians are working towards

and they are listening to what Trump is saying about the fact that he wants de-escalation. And they are waiting to see whether that is true. Because bear in mind, if they don't receive Kellogg, they do conduct major escalating, moves of their own, the whole negotiation track collapses, then it is equally likely, as in the scenario that you outlined, that the Americans, the Trump, will be forced to move himself

towards greater escalation. So the Russians probably are calculating that they have nothing substantive to lose by taking the approach they are, which is one that, which is, which is ones that their allies want them to take. I agree with that. But, yeah, I mean, you know, no one expected the assassination of the generals. I mean, what I worry, I think what everybody worries about is, is what is the U.S., the Biden White House going to do for the next 30 days. Absolutely.

What do they have brewing? Yes. Because they could do something very, very dangerous. Absolutely. Yeah, that's a huge. I mean, you know, we were talking long-range missile strikes, and then there you go. They assassinate a Russian general. Yes.

And they take responsibility for it. Yes. I mean, they're obviously trying to provoke Russia. So, yeah, I mean, the fear is that, yes, the risk assessment from Russia is correct. But the fear is that these guys, the neocons, the Biden White House, the Europeans, Budanov, Zelensky, they're losing their minds. And they may do something that that may push us towards World War III, where the Russians might have to say, okay, we can't show any restraint anymore. Victor Orban, I'm sorry, we just have to. We have to respond.

And that possibility is very real. I come back to what I discussed. There are rumors that Ukraine is preparing another attempt to recapture the Zaporosia nuclear power plant. In other words, attack a nuclear power plant. that would be an incredibly dangerous thing to do. It could be that. It could be another assassination attempt in Moscow. By the way, just to say, on that assassination attempt,

the Russians have a lot of questions to ask themselves. And how was it possible that this very senior military officer who apparently was already aware that he was being hunted because he's apparently been talking about this to various people and who has said things that the Americans probably are unhappy about as well, that this very senior military officer was left so unprotected. I agree. I agree.

This seems amazing. And it's an incredible lapse, actually. But yes, the other thing that the Europeans could do is that they could move. is, I think, a real possibility over the next few weeks, and they'll be urged to do that by the Biden administration, to seize the Russian assets. I mean, that is another major escalatory step, which would massively complicate the negotiations. In fact, that also might make negotiations impossible, and Hungary has a veto power over some decisions of the European Council, but I don't know whether it's sufficient to stop this. So there's all kinds of things that could be done over the

next few weeks. Orban has said that this is the most dangerous period of the war so far. And I agree with him. But you have to hope and work to mitigate to the best extent you can what the Biden administration, and it is ultimately they, because they're the ultimate decision-making. are doing over this period and hope that it's enough to get you past the finishing line on the 20th of January. I've come back to what I said.

Up to now, up to now, the Trump people have been going out and they've been saying publicly and I'm sure privately that they disagree with the things the Biden administration has been doing. They're opposed to the missile strikes, which means, by the way,

that they're accepting the Russian red lines and the deterrence. And Kellogg has come out and said that he thinks the assassination of Kirillov was a mistake. Again, I accept he's not condemning it. It was very mild, but it is a statement that is negative about what the Ukrainians have done. He also said it during the same segment, which shows his, the fact that he buy, Kellogg buys into all the Ukraine. narrative. He buys into all of it because in the same segment,

he said that Russia's losing five times more soldiers than Ukraine is and that there's a whole bunch of North Koreans fighting for, I mean, the fact that he says this stuff is just, you just shake your head. I know, I'm going to say something. I'm worried also that Trump also believes some of this. Yeah, yeah, it is. I mean, that that is something which it is important to convey.

I wonder whether one of the reasons why the Russians want to dialogue with Trump is that they need to explain to him all of these things. Do you think that this is Ukrainian propaganda, which you mustn't take seriously? If Kellogg and Trump don't know that this is this is nonsense of a general, a general, a general. Kellogg was a general, right? Yeah, absolutely. You're telling me that a general doesn't have any idea of the real casualty numbers. The general doesn't understand that Russia has a 10 to one advantage in just about everything. In everything, when it comes to this conflict, so it would be, it would be mathematically impossible for it to be a five to what advantage in favor of Ukraine or that Ukraine has undertaken 15 or 21 or God knows how many mobilization. They've mobilized 15 or 21 times and he's still talking about five. I mean, or the North Korean troop narrative.

My point is that Kellogg is a military guy and you have to imagine that he would have a clear understanding as to what the numbers actually are. You would assume so. And this is where I share your astonishment. But consider how these top military people in the US have got this whole thing consistently wrong. The Patriots were going to make a transform the battlefronts. The Haimars were. The attackers were. They were going to isolate Crimea.

None of this has happened. So, I mean, you know, how much these people actually understand. stand about this war. I simply don't know. I mean, it seems incredible, but, you know, maybe that they do believe all of these fantasies. You think they know? The Russians were incredulous when Trump gave what he believes, apparently, to be the casualty figures. They say, these are nonsense. And I think they want to convey that to him in person, because I don't know what Trump himself thinks about this. And what do I know? I don't know. I mean, I would have thought, just like you, that military officers would have some genuine understanding of this.

But apparently they accept everything that the Ukrainians tell them. They get all of their intelligence from Ukraine. They rely on the Ukrainians to provide them with Russian casualty figures, and they don't look past them. Yeah, they don't think for themselves, obviously. What do you think? Because because they just accept, yeah. Because they're politicians.

They're political generals rather than officers who are accustomed to battle. I mean, there are some American generals who take different perspectives. Are we being contacted by one? Just to say. But overall, it looks as if a lot of these people who are widely held in low regard by some of the middle ranking officers that we all know, they just continue to tell this nonsense. And those middle ranking officers in the U.S. military are as incredulous about this as we are.

Do you think they know what Istanbul plus is, Kellogg, Trump, people around Trump? Do you think they have any idea that Trump, that Putin gave a speech to the foreign ministry and he pretty much laid it all out there? Well, I think Kellogg does know this. I think Kellogg has some ideas about this. I presume that Trump has been briefed about it but I don't know whether he's been told about this to the extent that he needs to be and this is where as I said I think that the Russians feel

that actual direct contact with Trump and his officials might be the way to get this through because I'm not convinced that Trump understands how, you know, serious this was, I could just say something. If you go and read American and Western media outlets,

they never talk about these things. They never talk about Istanbul Plus. They never talk about Putin's speech to the foreign ministry. They don't talk about the various things. Every so often, they refer to Putin's maximalist demands when in fact he's Istanbul proposals,

June proposals are not only not maximalist, they are very reasonable. But talking about them as maximalist demands might imply that they think that the Russians will concede on them. Yeah, my sense is that the Trump, I was going to say the Trump administration, the people around Trump, and Trump himself, they get most of their information on Ukraine. side of briefings to get most of it from the collective West media from the New York Times, the Washington Post, and my sense is that they buy into it. Well, consider how some of them continue to trot out the story about

Russia. Yeah, the UK as well, yeah. The UK, but, you know, they continue to trot out the story about Russia being a gas station instead of a country. I mean, it's, they read that all of the media. They can't, still can't get their head around the fact,

despite all the evidence, it's turning out otherwise. They still say Russia's economy is going to, I mean, you get reports like that from the U.S. and the UK constantly. Absolutely. Economies just about to collapse. Shot to pieces. Yeah. That it's, you know.

Yeah, you still get that. So I imagine that Trump and his administration are still very, very much getting their information from these sources. And this is how they're getting informed on Ukraine. Trump has even said as much on true social. He said that, you know, the Russians have a bad economy. Yeah. Exactly. So, I mean, you know, I don't think.

So he's misinformed. I mean, they're going into the negotiation or the plan to negotiation, misinformed. Yes. Yes. Yes. Which is, which is always a dangerous thing to do, obviously. But if you do want to get some kind of process, not, I, I'm skeptical that this will can be,

resolved by negotiations. I don't think that Zelensky, Kiev, any government that appears in Kiev will ever do the kind of deals and make the sort of compromises that would be necessary to achieve his success. That leads me to the next question. Exactly. I mean, so, yeah. Well, that leaves you to to my next question. If Trump offered Ukraine, not Ukraine, if Trump offered Zelensky and his, his guys, his producers and script writers, if he offered them a way out, not so much Ukraine, not so much Ukraine, offered them a personal way out of this mess. Do you think that Zelensky would say, okay, I'll go with whatever plans you put on the

table, Trump, even Istanbul Plus, but you're guaranteeing me, me, Padoliac and Yermak and all of us, you're guaranteeing us a way out. In fact, it's already been afloated. I mean, the idea being that Zelensky's offered refuge in London. I mean, I've actually seen... If the US guarantees that? If the US guarantees that, I've seen that very possibility being talked about. I'm going to make a... I'm going to say what I actually think about this.

I don't think even that's going to work. Zelensky himself might accept it, though he's now so completely disconnected from reality and has developed such a Messiah complex, that even about that, I am not sure. But the problem is not just Zelensky. It is the whole structure that exists in Ukraine at the moment. Now, I was reading an article in the Financial Times,

and it was talking about the SBU, the Ukrainian internal security agency, which is widely assumed to have murdered Kielov in Moscow, and which is also, by the way, the one that was responsible for Gonzála Lira's arrest, just to say. Anyway, I read about it. It has a staff of 30,000. The FBI in the United States, their total staff is 35,000. I mean, we are talking about huge armed militias, people who are deeply compromised in all the various things that have been done. And again, and very remind, the SBU is only one agency and organization in all of this.

There are hundreds of thousands of people like this in Ukraine, in the Ukrainian power structures. you can't give refuge to everyone. So Zelensky might leave, but the person who takes his place could be even more intractable and intransigent and dangerous than Zelensky himself. And in fact, as we've discussed in, we've mentioned in previous programs, there's a real possibility.

If you start trying to engineer those kind of, of rearrangements in Kiev, that the whole situation in Kiev could get completely out of control. So I don't personally think that this is a viable way forward at all. My own view, and I've said it many times, I think that the best thing Trump could have done was, yes, absolutely talk to the Russians and forget about Ukraine. Until the Europeans, this is your problem, not mine. He chose to do otherwise. I think that was a mistake. Perhaps he will gradually come to understand that. Trump is extremely skilled at getting himself out of difficult situations.

Maybe what will happen is you'll get Kellogg to Moscow, get Kellogg wasting his time, trying to negotiate with the Russians. And in the meantime, he'll be sending Rick Grinnell and other people like that and a dialogue on all kinds of other things, the Middle East, economics, energy policy, all of those things that need to be sorted out. Maybe that will finally start. Would you say that Trump saying, I'm going to end the war in 24 hours, would you say that that was a very smart, uh, tactic slogan to throw out there?

I mean, it's, it's a crazy slogan and I understand you're not going to end the war in 24 hours. but by saying those words he has been able to bring all the parties in the conflict into his his negotiation I call it his negotiation frame his frame of how he how he wants to move forward with with project Ukraine I mean it did bring and it did expose it also exposed a lot of the actors in project Ukraine as to what their real intentions are the Europeans want escalate the The Biden and the White House must escalate. Zelensky wants to escalate. He's even lashing out at Orban.

And the Russians continue to say they want to talk. So, I mean, by making that statement as crazy and as outrageous, a statement it was, Trump was able to understand how everyone is thinking and actually look at their actions, but he was also able to bring everyone to this, you know, ending the conflict mindset. even the Russians have been have have agreed to you know to show restraint when red lines are crossed oh absolutely i mean i think it was a political masterstroke actually very difficult he's good at those things make america great again i mean he's good at these types of slogans and yeah and i think that is how it needs to be understood i mean people assume that trump is serious about

this, that he generally believes that he can end the war in 24 hours, or that he can end the war before he even becomes president. He'd love to do that. I don't think he really believes that. But it's the sort of thing that people say makes no sense at all, and they make the mistake, as so often is the case with things that Trump says, of taking what he says literally, rather than looking at the wider meaning, the deeper meaning within it. And what of course it's actually done is that it is galvanized the whole debate. Now, everybody is acknowledging that Ukraine is losing the war. Everybody is acknowledging that the Russians are going to win the war unless there is a negotiation.

There is frantic discussion about negotiations. The Europeans are talking about negotiations. The Russians are talking about negotiations. The Americans are talking about negotiations. The only problem is, of course, and this is the major problem, even some of those people who say they want negotiations are doing everything they possibly can to sabotage them. So that's why MacCroat is floating all these dangerous ideas,

about tens of thousands of peacekeepers to Ukraine. That's why Zelensky is being incredibly abused. about Orban and is talking, has floated ideas about victory plans and nuclear weapons and accelerated NATO entry and all those kind of things. That's why Biden has provided the authorization to conduct missile strikes into Russia and why he's also sending as many weapons as he possibly can to Ukraine as quickly as he can. So it's accelerated and jumbled everything together and moved the entire discussion. But it's also exposed vividly how dangerous this whole situation is and how dangerous it's become. Yeah. You know, just to end the video here,

he did the same thing with Canada just the other day, where he makes these outrageous statements and claims. Canada's the 51st state or it's Governor Trudeau. But you see the effects of it. It caused Trudeau to panic. He travels to Mar-a-Lago. Everyone is now talking about the tariffs. And Trudeau's government is coming apart. Absolutely. Even though it was a crazy outrageous statement, but he threw it out there and he changed the whole debate about Trudeau, the liberals and everything going on. everyone falls for these. He comes out with these slogans or these posts or these tweets and everyone, you know, falls into, I don't want to say it's a trap, but it's a way for him to move something into a certain direction

or to move the dialogue and sometimes even more than a dialogue into a certain direction. Absolutely. Can I just say it was very funny. I mean, you know, I've met with, you know, Governor Justin of the great state of Canada. You saw how true they reacted. Absolutely. Oh, no, absolutely. His government imploded over it. Exactly.

I mean, this, absolutely. And you're quite right. This is vintage Trump. No one else knows how to do this. And he does it brilliantly, and he does it time after time. Now, I don't know to what extent he thinks this through or plans it out, but it always works for him. Yeah. Yeah, it's a type of negotiating tactic in a way.

Yeah, absolutely, it is. It is. It is one that he clearly has perfected. over many decades. And you can see how it works. Now, as I said, this is fine. I mean, when you're dealing with the Europeans,

when you're dealing to some extent with the Ukrainians, I mean, the way he's treated Zelensky, I mean, at times it's furched on the brutal. It's also been quite funny on occasion. I also think, I have to say this. When you get into protracted negotiations with a party like the Russians, it's going to be different. And I hope there that he understands that.

And I mean, he really does need to start talking to people who know the Russians better than some of the people that he has around him do. That's why we talked about the fact they're going into this misinformed. That's the way it looks. Anyway, all right. We'll add the video there at the durand.orgas. We are in Rumble Odyssey, butchutu, telegram, rock fin, and X and go to the Durat shop, pick up some merch, like what we are wearing in this video today.

And also pick up some gift cards for the holiday season on the Durad shop. Links in the description box down below. Take care.