The Duran Podcast - Sahra Wagenknecht and the new left in Germany

Episode Date: April 22, 2024

Sahra Wagenknecht and the new left in Germany

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the political situation in Germany. Ola Schultz's approval rating is as low as it can be. Well, maybe he can find a way for it to get even lower, but he's like hovering at like 20% approval rating. And they tried to go after the Arafda. They're still trying to go after the Araf de, but it looks like the Araf de is starting to recover from some setbacks that that it had a couple of months ago and and we can talk about the the rise of sarah wagenacht

who who has always been a prominent politician but seems that she's she's getting more attention with each passing day what's what's going on in germany well i think you've described the situation quite quite well first of all olaf schultz he is deeply unpopular he is leading a government that is extremely fractious. The FPD, the liberals in other words, are now showing signs of getting closer to the CDU, the main opposition party. In some respects, of course, politically,

economically in terms of economic thinking, those two parties are closer. So there's already that going on. And Schultz himself just wants to. went to China, he met Xi Jinping there. Xi Jinping threw the book at him over Ukraine. That'll leave you know, you've got it all wrong. You should stop sending weapons.

You should sit down and talk. You should give up this idea of trying to defeat the Russians. If you read the Chinese read out, it's fairly clear what Xi Jinping was saying. But in terms of German politics, the most interesting fact about this visit by Schultz to China is that we were told that large numbers of people from the business community would go with Schultz. Fewer did than many expected. And the Greens, Robert Harbeck and Annalina Behrbock, the one the economics minister, the other of the foreign minister, they didn't go with him. Probably in the case of Annalina Behrbog, Schultz wouldn't have wanted her there.

But in the case of Haabek, who has never, by the way, visited China throughout the time that he's been economics minister, one gets the sense that he thinks that Schultz going to China is wrong, and he wants conflict with China, just as he wants conflict with Russia. So you sense a dysfunctional government that is beginning to come apart at the seams. The problem is that the opposition party, Christian Democrats, the CDU, CSU, led by Friedrich Mertz, see, very much like the Labour Party in Britain, wants to do exactly the same as the government, only to do it even more. They want to be even more anti-Russian, even more pro-Ukrainian, send even more weapons to Ukraine. They want to follow essentially the same economic policy.

in Germany, except with added insistence of maintaining, preserving budget discipline, which many Germans would agree with. But as we've discussed, intensifying the economic war is ultimately in contradiction with that. So the CDU, CSU are not providing alternatives. and what's starting to happen in Germany, again as we've discussed, is that Germans are looking for alternatives. So Germans, especially working class Germans, who are inclined towards the right,

and there are many of them, are now starting to coalesce around the AIFTA. And Germans, especially working class Germans, the SBD's old base, of whom there are. are also many, are starting to coalesce around the new left, which is Saravagenex party. Now, if we can just explain what Saravaganex party is, she has emerged out of Delinka. DeLinka was a party that emerged in the 1990s. It was a union between the old East German Communist Party, which still has, you

had residual support in East Germany and various left-wing parties in the west of Germany, which joined it together and formed Delinca. And originally it was a classical socialist working-class party, adhering very much to the kind of politics that you associated with socialist working-class parties. And it did quite well at one point in one election, I remember it got as much as 13% of the vote nationwide, which is, you know, significant turnout for a party like that. And then, of course, they wanted to find their way into government.

They began to water down their program. They went full on adopting the whole panoply of policies with identity issues. People, their working class base didn't like that. and the party has collapsed. So out of that, Sarajevagenet has appeared. She says we go back to what we originally were. Working close socialist party. We're not interested in the identity issues.

We're not going to go down that road. If anything, we stick with traditional values. We are also not keen on further immigration into Germany. We understand that our working close base doesn't love. like that. We have a different perspective to this from the IFDA, but you know, they don't like immigration. We don't like immigration, slightly different reasons. And apparently she's starting to gain support. And the initial polling figures suggest that her party is going to do significantly well in the coming European Parliament elections. So the IFDA came under enormous

pressure earlier this year. Lots of talk that it was going to be banned, if you remember, a major attempt to try and play up a meeting that took place with some members of the IFDA are attending it, talking about deporting. Well, it was made out that it was all about deporting immigrants and all kinds of extreme and in my opinion force parallels were made with a plan that the Nazis had had to send people to Madagascar. I'm not going to get into all of that. Anyway, for a short time, that dented the IFDAIR support. The IFDA has been so criticised for so long that it has become bomb-proofed, in my opinion. It lost a little, a certain amount of support. It's won it back. People have thought about the criticisms of the IFDA. They've decided it doesn't

hold. And you see, the IFDA getting stronger once more. So there we are. It's a complicated situation in Germany. We'll see what happens with the European Parliament elections that are due in May. but unlike in Britain, which we've talked about many times, where the political class has managed to smash all political alternatives to itself and where there might eventually be alternatives, but they haven't really yet formed. In Germany, the Germans seem to be ahead. There are now challenges to the establishment, both from the right and from the left.

And both the CDU, which has had a big working class vote in the past, now risks losing some of that to the IFDA, and the SPD, which was historically a working class party, could start losing support. Sorry, it could start losing support from the left as well. So we'll see what happens. The elections in May are very much a referendum on the state of things in Germany, in every country that's going to be having the European EU elections. Will AIFD be able to put up a good showing for this elections?

Well, this is the big question. And I think this is the other thing that one has to say. both the IFTA and Saar Wagenek's party, if they're going to get momentum, they need to do a good showing in these elections. So all the stops are going to be pulled to prevent them doing so. If they do put on a good showing,

if they get a solid vote, and if the establishment parties do badly, or are seen to do less well than they should, then, as I said, we could start to see more momentum shift towards these opposition parties. If they fail, if the results for both each of these parties, or for either one of them is disappointing, then given the realities in Germany,

one can see how there might be again a consolidation around the centre. And in that case, we would be looking forward to a Friedrich-Mer. that's CDU government in probably a few months time, with an even harder position than the one we have. So these elections are going to be very important. And, you know, it's far from a certain thing how they're going to go. Just just saying, if the IFD and Sarah Wagnernecht do well in these elections as well, It has another effect because it could also change, to some extent,

the political complexion of the European Parliament. So, you know, people like Claire Daly, for example, might not be quite as isolated as they are at the moment. So a lot hangs on these elections to the European Parliament. I mean, it's also a referendum of the conflict in Ukraine, the support for Ukraine, as well as what's happening in Israel and Gaza. Well, indeed, yes. So do you think the elections could, like in Germany, for example,

if Sarah Wagenet and Avaev, they have a good showing, do you think they could change the policies of the current government in Germany? And I guess this question carries over to every government in Europe, who's been very supportive of Project Ukraine. No, it won't. Do poorly in the elections, will they change their stance? No, it won't. It will do the opposite.

I mean, one way or the other, and I think this is an important thing to say, however well the IFTA does, however well the Sada Haganek does, even if they win the maximum degree of support in the European Parliament elections that people say they might do, even if we have Wunderstug elections, parliamentary elections in Germany, and, you know, they again win the maximum number of votes in those elections, so that these two parties together form a significant bloc, let's say 25, 26% of the representatives in the Bundestag. That will still leave 75% who are committed to the war and who, who, want to continue the existing policies. What will in that case happen is that you will see a

political consolidation in government on the part of the centre. Probably a new grand coalition with the CDU, the CSU, the FBD, perhaps social democrats, who knows, I mean, whatever. But a new government formed, even more committed to the policies that we are seeing, now. And what you will also have is an intensification of the attempts to discredit and to basically suppress these opposition voices. There's growing signs of insecurity in Germany. There was a pro-Palestinian conference, for example, that took place in Berlin a short time ago, which was dispersed. by the police in a, I think, completely over-the-top way, choosing my words very, very carefully here. Completely unnecessary to do that. I saw no sign that anybody there was going to break any German law, but nonetheless they did that. We're going to have this, again, all kinds of talk about disinformation,

this attempts to try and prove that they've been completely unsuccessful, by the way, that the IFDA has some kind of financial links to Russia. There's going to be all that kind of thing. And it's going to intensify. It's going to continue through the May elections. It's going to intensify in the Bundestag elections, on the either of the Bundestag elections. And if, as I said, these opposition parties do well,

it's going to get even stronger afterwards. because the political establishment in Germany is totally committed now. It's completely invested in the current policies. It knows that he can't retreat from them because if it does, its credibility is shot to pieces. And they will pull every stop to suppress wherever they can and however they can. But nonetheless, and in spite of that, it would still be a big event because it would mean that within Germany there is a critical mass of people who will have expressed their opposition and who will have some degree of representation in the Bundestag.

So, you know, one shouldn't discount the importance of it. It would be a major crack in the system, but it will not reverse the political realities. It seems like nothing can reverse the political reality. Well, no, I mean, it's, I mean, was it Larry Johnson? I know. Yeah. I mean, what was it Larry Johnson said in that live stream that it's the Thelma and Louise approach to politics? You know, you drive off the cliff and you put on the accelerator.

Of course, the difference with Thelma and Louise is that they knew what they were doing. They made a choice at the political class in Germany on that. They're putting their foot at the accelerator as the abyss, you know, looms the cliff, looms ahead. But, of course, they don't see themselves as driving off the cliff. They are, they see things in a completely different way. But they do feel insecure and they do feel under pressure. And the more insecure and the more under pressure they feel, the more they will double down. And, well, you've lived in Cyprus, you know how.

vicious they can be when they really do feel the you know they really are you know when they really do feel that you know their back is against the wall and the the extent of the kind of things they can do yeah so i present breeze yeah all right we will don't think don't think they won't do those in germany also if they have to yeah exactly the dera dot local dot com we are on rumble odyssey Bichy Telegram, Rockfin, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran Shop. Look for limited edition merch. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.