The Duran Podcast - Saudi Arabia Pulled Into War, Oil Exports at Risk

Episode Date: July 30, 2026

Saudi Arabia Pulled Into War, Oil Exports at Risk

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the war in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, or at least what is shaping up to turn into a hot war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. It could result in the full closure of the Amman Dhab Strait. It could lead to a further crisis in the energy markets and with the oil supply. What are your thoughts on what is happening between Yemen and Saudi Arabia, the Houthis? Yes, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. It is escalating and it is escalating out of Saudi Arabia's control, or so it seems to me, because what is now happening is that the Houthis are launching attacks on Saudi oil installations inside Saudi Arabia itself. It's not just a question of closing the

Straits, but they are attacking Saudi oil terminals in the Red Sea and other big facilities within Saudi Arabia itself. Now, for the moment, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Saudi Arabia has been able to keep a significant amount of its oil still exported, but it's been exporting it through the Red Sea. It's going to be a major blow for the Saudis if the Red Sea itself is closed. But of course, there's always the other option, because the Red Sea has two ends. There's the one that leads into the Indian Ocean, which is the one which the Houthis can close. But there's also, obviously, the Suez Canal. But if the installations, if the oil port, on the Red Sea are attacked as well. If ships are attacked trying to load cargoes,

oil cargoes, at those ports, then of course Saudi Arabia's entire oil export trade stops. And it looks as if we're starting to move in that direction, because apparently some ship owners are now showing nervousness about sending their ships to these ports, and there's some reports that some have decided not to do so, at which point we have, in effect, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a closure of the Red Sea, a closure of Saudi Arabia's entire oil export industry, I would have thought this would be a critical crisis for Saudi Arabia.

And the Saudis are now also complaining that they've come under drone attacks from the north from Iraqi territory with Shia militia in Iraq also launching drone attacks on the Saudis. So this is a major crisis. and it seems to be spiraling almost independently of the underlying conflict between the United States and Iran. The United States and Iran have been in active conflict. Well, I would say since June 2025 when the United States attacked Iran for the first time. But obviously, mostly since the 28th of February. There is no agreement of any kind between Iran and the United States.

We have a pause in the missile strikes, obviously, because the Americans have run out of weapons. The Americans, of course, deny this. Trump is talking about negotiations with the Iranians. The Iranians deny there are negotiations. But at any rate, we still have a pause. but the fighting, the attacks, the mutual strikes between the Houthis and the Saudis continue, even as we have this pause between the Americans and the Saudis. And it's important to say that the Houthis and the Saudis have a very, very difficult

relationship with each other. Saudi Arabia tried to intervene in the Yemeni Civil War. It began that intervention. Very soon after NBS basically took over as the leader of Saudi Arabia, it was 10 years ago. It didn't go at all well, despite an enormous commitment of resources by the Saudis. Eventually, the Saudis were forced to a standstill, fought to a standstill. and accepted a ceasefire, which basically left the Houthis in control of Sana, the capital of Yemen, and the greater, the more populated regions of Yemen.

So the Houthis ultimately came out the winners from this. But the Houthis have an extreme loathing of the Saudis. Probably it is reciprocated. And this thing is now getting out of, you know, it is. It gets the sense that the seasfire has completely broken down, and we're looking at a renewal of the war. What does this mean for Saudi Arabia in the energy situation? Well, you see, this is what... They claim they have some land routes that they can get the energy specifically to Asia, or they're going to move it through the Red Sea.

What happens when the Al-Mandab Strait is completely shut down? What happens to Saudi Arabia? What happens to the global energy supply? Well, I would add that these land routes which do exist don't look particularly safe. They're all well within Iranian range. And some of them are within Houthi range as well. So I wouldn't place too much confidence in them. We could be looking at a situation where all the oil export routes are closed.

And if we go back to the previous conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, whereas I said the Houthis fought the Saudis to a stop, well, at least during that whole period, Saudi Arabia was able to export oil. So they didn't have any problems with cash flow. There were some Houthi attacks on Saudi oil installation. on the Persian Gulf. And I remember that the Saudis were horrified by this. And it caused a crisis in relations between the Saudis and the US

because the Saudis couldn't believe that their Patriot missiles were incapable of defending these installations. And they were very angry that the Biden administration didn't, or was it the Obama administration, I forget which one it was, didn't run to their rescue. But anyway, but I mean, fundamentally, we are, We did not see a situation like the one we see today where Saudi Arabia isn't able to export oil potentially at all or where its oil exports and therefore its revenue are sharply reduced.

And again, in the previous conflict, the Saudis had the very active, continuous assistance of the Americans and of the other Gulf states. But all of these parties, the Americans, the Gulf states, are now first themselves critically weakened and also tied up with the larger conflict with Iran. So Saudi Arabia, it seems to me, is going into this conflict with the Houthis in a much weaker position than it was in previously. which begs the most strange question about this whole conflict. Why is it even happening at all? Because it started with an action that the Saudis took. What happened was that the Supreme Leader of Iran had his massive funeral in Tehran,

you know, Ali Hamenei. The Houthis decided to send a delegation, and Iranian aircraft came to collect them. They went to Iran, and the same Iranian aircraft decided to take them back. The Saudis decided that this was unacceptable. They then took the decision to break the ceasefire and bombed Sana' airport. And what then happened was that the aircraft, the Iranian aircraft, simply changed and went to another airstrip. So it wasn't actually prevented from returning the Houthis to Yemen.

The Saudis said that any establishment of an air bridge between Iran and the Houthis is completely unacceptable to Saudi Arabia? Well, maybe, but taking that step, shattered the ceasefire and has catapulted Saudi Arabia into a war with the Houthis, whereas I said his position, from every point of view, every perspective that I can see is now much weaker than it was when the previous war, which Saudi Arabia basically lost, took place. It, it must. It, really doesn't make a huge amount of sense to me. And it begs the question about the quality of decision making that's taking place in Riyadh and whether the Saudis perhaps were put under immense pressure by someone, maybe Trump,

maybe the Israelis, maybe someone else to launch this attack on Sana'a, which has backfired, catastrophically. I was going to say the same thing. That was going to be my next question. The United States or Israel, putting pressure on Saudi Arabia to go forward with this? Well, I think so, and I get to say something else.

I think that... Is this package... I'm just going to throw something out there before you add to that. Is there something connected to this with the uranium deal as well? Maybe. Can you connect something there?

You know, you took... You anticipated exactly what I was going to say because I think the war. I think there was a quid pro quo. The Saudis have been trying to get this uranium enrichment deal with the Americans for decades. And it looks to me as if this has been discussed privately for several weeks now. And the Americans, the Trump administration, said, okay, we'll go ahead with it. We'll do it.

but in return, you must start doing things, you must start putting pressure on the Iranians and on the Houthis and all of that. And the Saudis agreed. Probably there's been a lot of other quiet deals and agreements done as well, which we are not really familiar with, but I'm sure this was one of them. And of course, what has happened is that the Saudis signed off on this deal. and they're now suddenly told, well, the deal won't take effect unless and Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel, which apparently the Saudis said they wouldn't do. So again, the Saudis have got themselves into this mess, presumably based on a promise, which the Trump administration, Donald Trump himself is not honoring. By now, people ought to know that any promise made by Donald Trump is valueless. It is no, there's nothing behind it.

He can flip from one moment to the next. The Russians discovered this in Anchorage. The Iranians discovered this with the MOU. The Saudis are now discovering it with the uranium. enrichment deal. I mean, he comes, he says all the right things. He's very charming. He can be extremely charming. You can see this. He can be very funny. People like him. People are taken with him. But we did another program on the Duran about the trickster. That's ultimately what he is. Yeah. Just a final note. I bet you that when he meets with Netanyahu, Trump is going to

to leverage the Turkey F-35 deal as well as the Saudi deal in order to try and get some concessions from Netanyahu perhaps with Iran or something. I can see him reversing what he did with Saudi Arabia and then throwing it back at at Netanyahu as well. I mean, I can see him doing that type of stuff. He is compulsive in this sort of thing. He is constantly looking for leverage. He constantly makes promises that he doesn't intend to keep.

I'm going to say this. This is, again, the real estate developer from New York doing all of this. You know, in that kind of very cutthroat world, you make all kinds of, you say all sorts of things. You don't really mean them. You get people to sign. You then move forward with what you want to move forward with. You don't really care about what the other party says. and if they come back and complain, well, they're just suckers, and that's not a problem.

And by the way, I mean, you know, let's not be unfair to Donald Trump. The whole industry works that way. Isn't that different in Britain too, by the way? I mean, you know, I know a little bit about the high-end real estate industry here. I mean, we're talking about a very, very cutthroat world. But it does not translate world well, as we said, any number of the number of people. of times into how global diplomacy is conducted. And yes, I think you're absolutely right. He's going to tell Netanyahu, who will give me this and pull out your troops out of Lebanon, and then I'll, you know,

walk it back with the Saudis and I'll walk it back with the other one and the F-35s. And what you'll end up doing is angering everybody. Yeah, exactly. All right, we will. the video there, the durand.locals.com. We're on X-Rond rumble. We're on Telegram. Go to the Duran Shop. Pick up some merch. We are also on Substack. And we also have a special on the Duran Shop as well, a sub-special. So check that one out. Links are in the description box down below. Take care.