The Duran Podcast - Saudi Crisis as Houthis Advance; MBS Needs Boots on the Ground

Episode Date: October 10, 2026

Saudi Crisis as Houthis Advance; MBS Needs Boots on the Ground

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in the Middle East, the situation with Iran. Maybe you may want to touch upon the situation in Yemen. It does look like the Houthis are advancing and that Saudi Arabia is having a very difficult time stopping the momentum in the Houthi advance. And we are getting reports mostly out of Axios, which claim that the Trump administration is once again looking at some sort of a military operation into Iran. Once again, a lot of speculation about whether this is going to happen. for the midterms, after the midterms, but according to Axios, the US president still has not made a

decision. Not so different. I mean, that's not so different. But I have to say that given that we don't have any movement, any real movement between the United States and Iran on the diplomatic front, soon or later, somehow or rather, there was going to be some kind of military action. Pretty much everybody, by the way, has come round now to the analysis that we made in our previous program about what happened in the Strait of Hormuz, that if any oil was passing through the Strait of Hormuz, which clearly there was, the Iranians were basically

letting it go through. But what has happened, one's senses, is that the Iranians are now starting to tighten up again. And this is inevitable, absent an actual diplomatic resolution of some kind. So there isn't a diplomatic resolution. So that suggests to me that we are going to see a drift eventually back to some kind of armed confrontation. Whether it will be on the scale of what we saw in February and March, I am not sure. I mean, given that the US is short of weapons, how can they sustain a prolonged military campaign against Iran? And they're still talking a lot about suffocating Iran's economy. Secretary Rubio recently made a speech about this, that Iran is in a terrible way, that the Iranian people should blame the Mueller's for

the fact that the Iranian economy is in this terrible way. I've no doubt that there is a lot of hardship in Iran, where I don't get the sense that it comes anywhere close to being sufficient to force the Iranians to back down. And I understand all the indications are such opinion polls as we can rely upon as have been made or suggest that Iranian public opinion has hardened behind the government because of course they see their country being attacked. So I think there is going to be a crisis with Iran, but I think the major crisis of the moment, the one that really ought to be getting even more retention than it is getting, is the one in Yemen that you referred to because there is actual fighting going on there.

There's been a lot of talk about a big Saudi offensive being prepared. there was talk about the Saudi-back government having regained some territory along the Red Sea coast. But overall, it looks as if it is the Houthis, Ansar Allah, as they're officially called. It seems as if it is still they who are on the march, and they continue to conduct strikes inside Saudi Arabia itself. and MBS, from what I can tell, is now trying to get military, actual military support wherever he can. He's pleading with the Pakistanis and the Turks to send troops. There is very confused stories about the fact that he might have tried to get Jalani in Syria

to send fighters as well. from what I understand, Erdogan and the Pakistanis have agreed to send fighter jets. But MBS is not short of fighter jets. Saudi Arabia has a huge air force. What MBS needs is tough, effective ground troops, and so far they don't seem to be coming. He needs boots on the ground. He needs boots on the ground. Who's going to provide those boots?

Who's going to provide them. The Americans won't. The Turks and the Pakistanis don't seem to be at all keen. And after a lot of rumors that were circulating yesterday, it seems that Jalani has said no. Yeah, it does look like Jolani has said no. The situation, again, is really bad for the Saudi-backed forces. It looks like the very important town in the region of Taiz is encircled in a caldra. Exactly.

Exactly. And that's the real event. That is the big event at the moment. And that is now the focus, and that is the major crisis point. Because just to say, if eventually the Houthis are able to capture this place and then move on and start to roll into what used to be the former South Yemen, then as I said, we're in a very dramatic situation. Indeed, we're in a situation of profound and enormous crisis. And I can see. start to see situations where the whole stability of Saudi Arabia itself was going to be threatened. Saudi Arabia has existed as a kingdom, as a state for 100 years. The government has a lot of legitimacy. It has, many times in its history, enjoyed real popularity. But it has never been under as much pressure as it is today. That will force the U.S. to get involved, won't it? Yes, absolutely. If they see that Yemen, that, that the Houthis are essentially taking over all of Yemen,

once they start their operation towards Adan and they've taken all the major cities of Yemen. I would imagine that the United States will have to get involved in some form or another. I mean, the U.S. is pretty heavily involved right now with advisors and stuff like that in Saudi Arabia. As is the U.K., I mean, they're not completely hands off with Saudi Arabia and helping Saudi Arabia, the French are also helping other Turks, the Pakistanis. But if the Houthis really do start to threaten the complete capture of Yemen and then possibly even threat in Saudi Arabia, this war could really expand. And how would that affect the operation towards

Iran, the potential U.S. operation towards Iran? How does that affect all of that as well? Well, I'm going to say straight away, if we get into a situation where the Houthis look like they're going to take over Yemen, the whole of Yemen, and it looks as if there are serious threats developing to Saudi Arabia itself, then I actually think Iran is going to fade into the background, because the crisis we would be talking about in that case is going to center on Saudi Arabia, and it is going to be an enormous crisis. And we were talking about Saudi Arabia. We're talking about the world's biggest oil exporter.

We're talking about, in some ways, the single most important Arab country. We're going to talk about the place where the Islamic holy cities, Mecca and Medina, are located, the country to which tens of millions of Muslims every year go on the haj. I mean, the implications of this are simply. enormous. I mean, they are almost beyond imagination. So I think at that point, I mean, there will be all sorts of people who will be telling Trump, Netanyahu, forget Iran, forget even Hormuz. It's Saudi Arabia you need to worry about. And, you know, obviously you're going to have to send troops. Obviously, the French and the Europeans are

going to have to send troops. The Israelis, what are they going to do? I mean, sending Israeli troops, to Saudi Arabia is going to be, I mean, given the sentiments of the feelings of the people and the religious feelings of the people of that region, I can't imagine anything more potentially destabilizing. But the Israelis are not going to sit back and stand aside and see Saudi Arabia threatened and potentially even fall, because the impact of that on Israel itself would be profound. we are looking at enormous potential events. Now, we're not there. We might not get there. There might be a deal done. Logically diplomatic action ought to be the way forward.

There ought to be attempts to talk to the Houthis and Ansarala. There ought to be ways of talking to the Iranians about this and seeing whether the situation can be stabilized. And no doubt the Russians and the Chinese, who are fully aware of all of the implications of a Saudi Arabian crisis that we are talking about and wouldn't want to see it either. They would certainly be prepared to help too in diplomatic ways. But this is the problem. At the moment, we are not seeing any coherent diplomatic initiatives. And the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, is absent.

He is busy worrying about Cuba and Latin America. he doesn't seem to be at all interested in what goes on anywhere else in the world. I mean, I've never known such an inactive Secretary of State. He ought to be constantly visiting the Middle East now. The fact that he's also Trump's national security advisor should be making no difference. It's an even stronger reason like you should be going to the Middle East. There should be intense diplomatic activity. And at the moment, there is none.

And that is the thing that really worries me. me. I think this crisis is containable. I think this crisis can be contained. I am not sure that it is even in Iran's interest to see Saudi Arabia crash. But nobody is doing anything to basically get that diplomatic process going. Would MBS be able to broker some sort of a deal with the help of the other major powers, U.S. China, Russia with the Houthis, with Ansarala, and say, look, okay, you guys are now going to form a government in Yemen. I accept that.

But let's keep it there, right? I mean, MBS, he really messed up. I just keep on thinking. What if you went the route of Bricks three years ago when China helped normalize relations with Iran? He would be in a completely different place right now. He really, really screwed things. up NBS. Yes, absolutely. I mean, he's, again, let's be clear about NBS. He's no, he's not, he's no fool. I mean, he's an

intelligent man. But one does get the sense that he's also overconfident and, um, um, it has a propensity to take risks and to gamble. And he appears to have told himself when Trump came in that he really didn't need this entente with Iran anymore because he had his friend in the White House and the United States would come in and would sort everything out and Trump would sort out Iran and MBS would be in a very, very powerful and strong position in that case. Instead of exactly, as he said, everything has turned out otherwise. And he should have been aware that there was a risk that it might turn. out otherwise. You never invest everything in one strategy, especially if you are in the Middle

East, you always need to hedge. And he didn't hedge. And now everything is going terribly and dangerously wrong. Having said that, there are various people who worked with him. Putin has worked with him. Remember, we said that he would call Putin and he did call Putin. He gets along with Putin. He gets along with Putin, and Putin gets along with him. The Chinese get on with him reasonably well, apparently. It's not quite as friendly a relationship as the one that he has with the Russians. He gets on very well with Trump.

He's, in other words, in some ways, well positioned, actually, to conduct successful diplomacy. And two things, I think, make this more difficult. Firstly, I suspect his own feeling of vanity. I mean, the idea that he can actually have to make deals with the Houthis probably is very difficult for him, especially given that it would be an admission that the risks he's taken over the last three years have turned out wrong. That's one thing. But secondly, obviously doing deals with the Houthis is going to be deeply controversial in Saudi Arabia.

itself. There are going to be many people in Saudi Arabia who are going to be furious with MBS if he tries to do something like that. And I don't know how strong MBS's position ultimately is. Right. Yeah. Agreed. Agreed. But there is a deal. There is diplomacy that can happen, especially if you engage with the U.S., with Russia and with China. If they all work together, MBS could find a way to get out of his mess. I don't know if he'll, remain on the trajectory of becoming the ruler of Saudi Arabia. That may be in jeopardy. Yeah. But Saudi Arabia is going to be saved, at least from the Houthi advance. Yes. That is very doable, I think, with diplomacy. Yes, absolutely. I think completely so.

And, of course, if things go absolutely wrong, and we have to have an intervention, a Western military intervention in Saudi Arabia to try to stop this thing getting completely out of control and the Houthis, or let's even call them the Yemenis, starting to advance to try to reclaim various regions that they say are Yemeni and which the Saudis apparently captured in the 1920s. I don't pretend to know much about this history. But let's assume that there is an actual Yemeni invasion of Saudi Arabia. Then, of course, the West is going to be involved. And other people are going to be involved.

But think what that will mean for Saudi Arabia. I mean, it will expose, again, the military weakness of the kingdom and of its dependence on other powers. And that cannot be a good look for the ruler of the country. who is ruling the country at that time, who will, of course, be MBS. Well, how's Operation Epic Economic Outcast? Scott Best, it's Economic Outcast. All the operation names gets all confusing.

Economic Outcast, how's that going? Because Iran's economy has troubles, no doubt about it. But the 10-year note above 535, first time in 20, for 25 years, that it's reached that level. Yes. This is not going well for the U.S. economy, and we're not even getting into the energy situation, which is going from bad to worse. Well, this is, you're actually making an extremely good point because, I mean, Iran

has its economic strengths. It's got a big manufacturing industry. And in some places, a well-developed one. I mean, it wouldn't be able to mass produce. missiles if it didn't have a strong industrial base. It has, I understand, mostly agricultural self-sufficiency. It's an energy producer. It's a large country. It's got a big population. But of course, they have many problems. They've never sorted out their financial system. Their ability to trade is inhibited. But this is the key point. Yes, inflation in Iran may be

very high, but Iranians have lived for many years with inflation. Hardship, this kind of hardship, is not something that Iranians are not already accustomed to. And a society that has lived under economic pressure for as long as Iran has done can absorb more. The United States is in a different place. So the question is, if we are heading towards severe economic problems in the United States, is it really a good idea to say to yourself, well, we can outlast Iran in this kind of economic tassel?

Ultimately, of course, the United States can. But the political consequences for the American political leadership, if it gets itself drawn, into an open-ended conflict with Iran, which is causing economic problems in the United States. Well, that's going to be very, very difficult, very difficult to manage. And we did that program with Rich Barris a few days ago, in which he discussed the way the polls are turning up as he sees them in the United States at the moment. And, well, if the Democrats win back Congress, then Trump anyway has to consider that in January he's going to have a Congress that is going to be hostile to him. And that might itself want to start bringing a stop to the war if economic hardship in the US continues.

So you're absolutely right to bring this point. I mean, economic pressure on Iran can only go so far and for it to work. My guess is that you're looking at years, not months. I think the Americans have got this completely wrong, actually. Right. All right. We will end it on that note. We are on substack.

We're on locals, the durand.com and go to Durand. I'll pick up some merch. Those links in the description box down below. Take care.