The Duran Podcast - Scholz falls out of favor with German voters

Episode Date: October 15, 2023

Scholz falls out of favor with German voters

All right, Alexander, let's do a very quick video on the elections in Germany in Bavaria and Hesse. Is that correct? Yeah, Hesse. Yes, Hesse. Yeah. Hesse. Okay. So OLAF Schultz's party did not do well.

They did very, very poorly. The Greens seem to have been steady, I guess. Aivde, second place party. And the party that came out ahead was the CDU and the CSU. and the CSU. Your thoughts? Yes. Well, the CSU has dominated Bavarian politics since the Second World War. It would be an astonishing thing

if they were suddenly to collapse and lose control in Bavaria. And Hesse is one of the richest German states. It's also a place you would expect. The CDU, the Christian Democratic Union, the Conservative Party, through most of the post-war era,

the dominant party in Germany to do well as well. Angela Merkel's party, by the way. So in the sense that the CDU, you know, won the first spot in Hesse and the fact that the CSU won the first spot in Bavaria is not news. The fact that a right-wing party is now positioned as second and it's a radical right-wing party against both the CSU and the CDU is a huge event.

And of course, what you're now going to find is that, of course, CDU officials and CSU officials will now be saying to themselves, well, we've got to watch this because they've now catapulted themselves to this position. They're getting strong. The IFDA is getting strong in our own places, the places where we have been strong. We can't fight them by saying that we are the right and they are the left. We can't do that anymore.

We can argue perhaps not very convincingly that we stand for democracy and that they oppose it. We can demand that they get banned and there are now cause for the CDU to ban the IFDA. But it seems there are very significant legal obstacles in the way of doing that. And that will probably not play well in Germany either. So I think that the CDU and the CSU have a lot to think about from this result. And they didn't, it seems to me, when clear-cut, you know, strong victories, as you might have expected, given that they're the opposition. And I think they need to be rattled by this result.

Now, let's go to the SPD. It is sinking. And I think this is the key thing to understand. In HESA in particular, the SPD has been. been a strong party in the past. And it's now at real risk of becoming marginalised. In Barberia, it's never been in any kind of position to challenge the CSU. But it has had places where it's been strong, like Munich, for example. And it's now receding there also. In fact, what we are seeing is that Olaf Schultz is presiding over the collapse of the SPD,

which remember is the oldest party in Germany. As a continuous history, going all the way back to the 19th century, it was, by the way, and just incidentally, a party that once was supported by Karl Marx, and which, for a lot of its existence, identified itself as a Marxist party. But for much of its history, it's been the biggest party in Germany.

It's led powerful governments in Germany post-war, the one led by Billy Brandt and Helmut Schmidt, the one that was led by Gerhard Schroeder. And it is melting away, and it is completely unsurprising, because it has led Germany into an economic disaster. and more and more people in Germany are understanding that and they're turning their backs on it. So I think it is now in an existential crisis and what it needs to do and needs to do fast is dumpshorts,

try to find some way out of this, perhaps preferably go into opposition and to try to reconstitute itself and reconnect with its roots. It's shown no sign of wanting to do that. It's gone in the past into coalitions with Merkel, which didn't do anything good for the SPD either. It formed grand coalitions with Merkel, which left it weaker, and now we see that it's heading towards collapse. And I'm starting to think that we're now approaching the point when the SPD will be at that point of no return and we could see it sink further until it becomes a marginal group in German life. And that would be an astonishing change in Germany. Now, as are the Greens, well, the thing to understand about the Greens is that they have

a fervid, fervidly loyal base. People who, people like us are worried about the de-industrialisation of Germany. But of course, amongst a lot of green voters, that isn't a concern. It's something they perhaps even welcome. It's not a bug. It's a feature for them. Absolutely. They're happy about the de-industrialization.

Are you suggesting that, I mean, I don't know, in German politics, Ken Schultz just say that the government has lost confidence or collapse and go to elections? Does it happen? No. I mean, in other European countries, that would be the case if they saw results like this. Yes. Very, very difficult to do in Germany. And I'm going to say something else.

I'm afraid that this SPD, the party leadership, would not want it anyway. I mean, their instinct will be to cling on. I mean, a couple of years ago when there was an election in Germany, a parliamentary election, the last one that Merkel fought as a chancellor, the coalition, the grand coalition did very badly. And we saw the SPD, I think it fell below 20% of the vote. And there were a lot of people who were saying at the time, what the SPD needed at that point was to break the link with Merkel

and to go into opposition, because that was essential for the SPD in order to rebuild itself and revive. But then what happened was the SPD establishment said, no, no, no, we can't do that. We must remain in government. They said that that's the way to promote social democracy in Germany. In reality, it was the way that they keep their jobs, they keep their privileges, they draw it out a little longer. To a great extent, it seems to me, that is all the SPD has become. It's a husk of the party it once was. So I think they will cling on to power.

I think Schultz will cling on to power. I think that the progressive weakening of this party will continue and will accelerate. I think it had a short upward blip during the last election when Merkel's chosen successor, Almond Lashet, self- imploded during the election circuit. And of course, the SCDU, CSU isn't in a particularly strong shape either. but not as critical as shape as the SPD is. But anyway, the SPD had a brief upward blip at that time because of factors that weren't really under its own control.

I think that misled people into thinking that the party was reviving. I think it is now in terminal decline. And I think it has been for a while, and I expect from this point on it will accelerate as it tries to cling on to power, even as the situation in Germany deteriorates. Yeah. Olive Schultz, the SPD, they brought it on to themselves.

Yeah. And of course, if Sarah Wagnernerch actually does get around creating a alternative radical party on the left, that could be the final blow. I mean, that could be the end. That could be the final event that demolishes the SPD. So the Greens, I'm afraid. we have to accept the fact that they are going to be with us for a long time because, as I said,

this is more a cargo cult, in my opinion, than a political party. Yeah. You know, my philosophy of the greed is always fine. Keep them as a party, but just don't let them anywhere near government. Exactly. Exactly. Don't let them anywhere near government. Exactly. You'll be okay. Exactly. Shultz gave them the keys to the castle and look at what they've done. exactly anyway all right we'll leave it there the duran dot locals dot com

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