The Duran Podcast - School Boy Foreign Policy: Trump's Iran Gamble Reverts To JCPOA 2.0

Episode Date: April 22, 2026

School Boy Foreign Policy: Trump's Iran Gamble Reverts To JCPOA 2.0

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the war in Iran. And we had an open, Hormuz, then we had a closed Hormuz. We had negotiations taking place, about to take place in Pakistan. And then maybe we're not going to have negotiations take place in Pakistan. Vance was sidelined, and Trump was going to go with Kushner and Whitkoff. But now it looks like Vance is back in as lead negotiator, though the Iranians are saying, wait a minute, who said that we're even going to show up to Pakistan. And we have a whole ton of Trump posts on truth social, a lot of posts from Trump on truth social.

But the main message that Trump is putting out in this latest batch of truth social posts is that he's going to make a better deal than the JCPOA. Now, if you're optimistic about what's happening between the U.S. and Iran, as far as a deal is concerned, you could look at that as a hint that there is going to be some sort of an agreement. And it is going to be very much like the JCPOA that Trump threw away. And so Trump is kind of running his own little media campaign to tell people that I'm going to eventually negotiate a better JCPOA understanding that he really has agreed to the JCPOA that he tore up. But he's running his own little campaign using true social. If you're on the more realistic cynical side of things, let's just say the more realistic side

of things, given everything we've seen over the past 50 days, you look at a big military buildup from the U.S. and you say that this is just all about buying time. and eventually we're going to get more attacks and more fighting. What are your thoughts on what's happening this week? But by the way, we don't have a day yet. I think maybe even today or tomorrow they set a date for the talks, but I don't think it's actually been agreed on by any size, including Pakistan as the meteor. Well, I think you've summed it up extremely well.

It is an extraordinary change, by the way, from rhetoric, which clearly made absolutely clear at the start of this operation that it was all about regime change in Iran and targeting Haminae and the Supreme Leader and all of that and telling people that their liberation is coming and all of those things from regime change. We're now all the way back to talking about better deals than the JCPOA. I mean it tells you so much about how badly up to now this operation has gone, how far short of its original objectives, it has fallen. But ultimately, I think you're completely correct.

I think that the fundamental way to understand this war, what is happening is put aside what Trump is saying for one day to the next, pay less attention maybe to the negotiations in Pakistan. and we're far from certain to even see negotiations in Pakistan. Look at where we are now in the actual war itself. The United States attacked Iran. The United States, as I think there is now no doubt at all, was expecting, or at least

the president and his closest circle of officials, were expecting because that's what they'd been told by the Israelis and that was what they wanted to believe, that within a few days, the entire political structure in Iran would collapse. It didn't happen. And we pointed out that every day that the government and political system in Iran survives, it's going to get stronger. And we see that. We also see something happen, which again, the Americans did not expect. They didn't plan for. They didn't prepare for. Not certain how they could have planned or prepared for it. the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control. So the Americans find themselves in a situation where they've lost the initiative.

The Iranians are stable and they control the Strait of Hormuz and there is a festering crisis in the global economy. So what do the Americans do? Well, on the one hand, they talk because they need to gain time. And I think this is, like you said, ultimately, mostly about gaining time. Bear in mind that since Trump became president, and arguably even before, the Americans have never negotiated with the Iranians on what you could describe as good faith. I mean, there have never been real proper discussions, conversations between the Americans and the Iranians. There's never been real diplomacy to actually agree a deal.

There's been demands, ultimatums, threats, demands that are very, very extreme, always with the regime change agenda there in the background. So the Americans have never really negotiated with Iran. So why assume that they are interested in negotiating with Iran now? And in the meantime, they're coming up with one various mechanism to try to somehow turn the tables on Iran, to somehow win the war. And if they win the war, be under no doubt, objective, the purpose, the intention, remains regime change. So they try a sea blockade, they talk about seizing islands, they talk about other kinds of operations deep inside Iran,

and of course, the military buildup continues. So I think this is really where we are at the moment. We're not looking at real negotiations. We're still looking at pauses before the next big clash, the Americans are under time pressure because the energy situation in the world is getting worse, but they are not yet at that stage where they feel themselves to be under so much pressure that they're prepared to negotiate with the Iranians seriously and in good faith and make the kind of concessions to the Iranians that they have always resisted up to now. So this is going to get worse before he gets better. Why the constant references to the JCP OA then, the recent constant references to the JCPOA from Trump. I mean, it would be an impossible

sell from Trump, wouldn't it? Well, maybe to his core cult group, it wouldn't it be an impossible sell. He could sell anything to them. But to the rest of the world, they would understand that the U.S. has taken a huge L in this war if he agreed to anything remotely close to what the JCPOA was. And from all the reports that I've read about the negotiations that fans had with Arachi a week or two ago and some of the framework of what they could potentially discuss, we are looking at pretty much a JCPOA, maybe even a JCPOA that's more towards the benefit of Iran. Straight of Hormuz would be under their control.

You would see some assets, a significant amount of assets, $20 billion handed back to Iran. You would see phased sanctions relief. You could see Russia instead of the Europeans monitoring and then taking over some of the uranium. So why all the reference to this, which was. be impossible for Trump and Trump's ego to accept? I think it's done to fool the Iranians mostly. The Iranians negotiated the JCPOA, and from their point of view, what they would want

is some deal, which is JCPOA plus. In other words, better for them than the original JCPOA was. So I think this is what Trump is doing. Now, it should be said, I don't think that there is complete unity about this within the American government. I think that there is a genuine, make America great America first, realist faction within the US government, one which is very resentful. and angry about the fact that the United States has again been drawn into yet another conflict in the Middle East. They're saying to themselves, well, what ultimately was wrong so badly about the JCPOA? What is so difficult for us about some of the things that the Iranians are

proposing? We are so sufficient in energy. Why does it concern us who control the the strait of almost. That's a problem for the Europeans. That's a problem for the East Asians. It's not really a problem for the United States. So let's patch up a deal with the Iranians. Obviously, we will need to make certain concessions to them, but they're not going to be concessions that ultimately impage massively on American national interests. Far better to do that, far better to negotiate seriously and to work in that direction, then to continue this conflict with the Iranians. The only effect of which will be that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and that the energy prices continue to rise, which will eventually have negative effects within the United States itself.

Now, I think that current of opinion does exist. I think there are people who do think that perhaps just possibly the vice-sacred, President J.D. Vance thinks that way. There are lots of reports that suggest that he does. I don't think that is the view which is in the ascendant today. I think that maybe in the autumn, if things have gone wrong, if we're looking at $200 oil, if there are oil shortages in Europe and across Asia, if it looks like we're tied down into a very big standoff and if the Chinese are starting to make moves in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, which some people are talking about, then at that point we might start to see this group that I've just talked about begin to gain ascendancy and gain traction.

But I think they're far from doing it at the moment. So is J.D. Vance being set up by Trump and say the core Trump faction that wants to escalate the war? Is he being set up as the fall guy, as someone to fail in the negotiations as he being thrown under the bus? Is that why they at first, well, they sideline J.D. Vance at first. But then Trump changed his mind and said, okay, J.D. Vance. Vance can lead the negotiations. And Iran kind of balked at the whole process. Yes. Right? I mean, it all looks very confusing for the U.S. side as they're trying to negotiate

this with Iran as to who they're going to send. But ultimately, it will reflect on Vance, who will most likely be the lead negotiator in. in Pakistan. And so he'll negotiate what, a JCPOA deal, which will turn out to be nothing. So he'll get the blame will fall on him, ultimately. Well, I'm going to say straight away. I think that there is an element, a faction within the administration and not just the administration, but within the wider political class, which is indeed setting up vans for a fail. I mean, They don't trust him. They realize that he's not near Khan in the way that they are.

He spoke out against the war. He's spoken out against Project Ukraine in the past. He's known to be somebody who takes or says that he takes America first and all of those things much more seriously than some of the other people in the administration do. So send him to negotiate with the Iranians, make it impossible for the negotiation to be successful, and set him up, in other words, a failure. Say that if he does come back with a deal, say that the Iranians outplayed him because it'll be JCPOA too. So it's his fault that Iran got a better JCPOA than the original.

one. Alternatively, everything falls apart. Well, it's still Vance's fault because he's the chief negotiator. Notice that the person who ought to be heading this delegation, this negotiating team, who is Rubio, is making absolutely care, is staying as far away from it as possible. In fact, you know, what is Reubio's job at the man? I'm not really sure because he doesn't seem to be doing much in the way of diplomacy at all. As far as I can see, his major focus is Cuba. It goes to MMA events with Trump, which I thought was very telling, actually, Alexander. Here you had the vice president at the first negotiations in Pakistan.

Then you had Trump in Rubio attending a fighting match. Exactly. And they were having a good time. Exactly. I think that tells you everything. It tells you everything, exactly. So there is that. Now, there may also be, and I, you know, let's not, let's be a little generous here.

There may also be a group and even perhaps aside to Trump himself, which says, well, I know that I'm in a complete mess. I realize that my hopes of a military victory may be unachievable. So let me send to Islamabad the one person who perhaps can negotiate a deal and who the Iranians perhaps can work with and who can provide me with the off-ramp and that is Vance. But of course, even that is double-edged because then if you're Trump, you can say, well, the reason we came away with such a bad deal was because Vance was the lead negotiator. You know, people told me that he was the right man to negotiate. And I went along with that.

But ultimately, Vance failed. So it's nothing to do with me. I was winning the war. I was being successful. I was going to achieve regime change in Iran, but I was betrayed by my second vice president. My first vice president in my first term betrayed me, and my second vice president in this negotiation with the Iranians has betrayed me as well. So you could see this.

This kind of thing does happen. I'm afraid this in this administration, it certainly does. So whatever, I don't think any of this really. is comfortable for J.D. Vance in any way. Why was he sidelined in the beginning and then Trump decided to go with him again? Well, that's your explanation of that. Well, this is where, as I said, the second explanation that you send him because you really do want somebody to do a deal and he's the only person who can achieve it and come back

with a deal, which will provide Trump with an off-rout. I think that may have been part of the reason for that, even though, as I said, you know. You're sending him there in order to get a deal, but you're going to betray him as soon as the deal is done. I mean, that sort of thing. But, of course, there may be other factors that we don't know about. I mean, maybe the Pakistanis insisted that he had to be there because Kushner is totally unacceptable. I was just going to say that to the Iranians. They don't want to speak with Kushner.

They've already said it. Well, they've said it. So why did you, if you're Trump, if you're the White House, why do you come out with an announcement? You know that Arachi does not want to speak with Kushner. You know, everyone knows this. Why do you come out with the announcement though and say, no, we're sending Kushner? Well, exactly.

I mean, again, it demonstrates the point that we've just been making, that the negotiations are not really being conducted in good faith. But we can spend an enormous amount of time trying to second guess. the factional infighting in Washington. It's very difficult for us to chart what is going on. All that I think we can say with confidence at the moment is that it looks extremely unlikely, does it extremely unlikely, 99.9% impossible that we're going to get a deal over the next couple of days because the space for such a deal does not exist.

and the real desire for such a deal in Washington at the moment is not there. What they are looking for is some solution to this problem with the Strait of Hormuz. And at the moment the drift is to go back towards military thinking. The Gerald Ford being redeployed to the battlefield, I'm sure to the anger of its crew, but they're being sent back. The people on the amphibious warfare carriers are unhappy because they're not getting all the food rations that they normally would expect, but they're not being pulled back either. More men are being deployed to the area.

Everything points to me. Everything to me looks like we're on the brink of further escalation. Yeah. It's such a giant defeat for Trump in his administration. We're talking about the JCPOA. We're talking about opening Hormoose. Why did you go through with this? If the endpoints are JCPOA and Hormuz,

and opening up Hormuz. You already had this. You had this three months ago. You had this five years ago. Yeah. Vanity, hubris, a regime change, a regime change obsession, loathing of, loathing of,

Iran and its leadership, going all the way back to the events of 1979. And of course, the influence of the Israelis, of Mossad in particular, who told Trump it'll all be really easy. Just do it. You'll see it all collapse like a house of cards. And of course, you had Lindsay Graham, Trump's favorite golf buddy. He was telling him the same thing. So that's how it came about. Yeah. Control the oil. Stick it to China before you meet with Xi Jinping. Exactly. Exactly. All of this. I mean, it's a schoolboy foreign policy. It's foreign policy for schoolboys. But that's unfortunately what we have. Just a closing comment. I think the meeting that Trump had was Xi Jinping in South Korea, where Xi Jinping absolutely spanked Trump, just humiliated and embarrassed Trump with the whole where earth things. I mean, the body language was absolutely stunning. Trump was just bowing down to Xi Jinping. I mean, he was defeated at that meeting in South Korea. I think that had a huge effect on Trump. I think you, you know, I never thought of that, but I think you're absolutely

correct. It's from that moment on that Trump has been on a massive campaign to try to reassert himself in every way that he possibly can. So we had the Valdai event. We had. you know, the attack on the Valdai residents. We've had the Maduro kidnapping. And, of course, we've now had the war with Iran, all in an effort to try to redress the balance with Xi Jinping. There it is. I remember the body language between the two. I'm not if you remember the no, I remember it very, on stage. And Trump came to him. And I mean, it was just too. I remember it very well. With this president especially, you know, these emotional, personal issues matter a very, very great deal. And I think you've got it actually.

Just to say. All right. We'll end the video there. The durand.com. We are on X and Rumble and Telegram. We are also on substack. Go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. All those links are in the description box down below.

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