The Duran Podcast - Starmer and Macron FAIL to trick Trump into war with Russia

Episode Date: February 28, 2025

Starmer and Macron FAIL to trick Trump into war with Russia

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the meetings between Macron and Trump and Stamer and Trump, the peacekeeper meetings, or actually I should probably say the reassurance force meetings, a plan hatched by Stamer, which Macron is going along with. But Macron doesn't seem so invested into this as Stammer. The UK is really invested. Stammer, at least, is just really invested in Project Ukraine. the conservatives as well, the entire political elite and in the UK is very invested in Ukraine. And then they're itching for a fight. They're itching for the U.S. to fight on their behalf. That's what they would ultimately like, the U.S. to fight on the British establishes behalf.

But the goal of the meetings, both Baccaron and Stammer, is to convince Trump to provide a backstop. Security and support guarantees a backstop so that the U.S. France and other European countries can send their soldiers to Ukraine, which the Russians have said is a no-go. Anyway, what are your thoughts on this? Absolutely. I mean, the starting point in this should really be what the Russians are saying. Now, the Russians have spoken about this many times.

They say that this is supposed to all happen at the conclusion of negotiations and that they're supposed to agree to this. The Russians have said that they're not going to agree to this. that this is no way that this can happen. Lavrov has made some very, very strong comments about this recently. So have other Russian officials. Lavrov, his latest comments suggested to me that he's actually getting angry, that this whole topic is still getting discussed,

and that the British and the French are talking about this as being something that might happen, and which, you know, might happen even though the Russians are saying that it won't happen. And the Russians have also said that if we're talking about peacekeeping forces or anything like that, the only international body that has the rights to authorize peacekeeping forces is the UN Security Council. And, of course, that comes with all kinds of provisions and restrictions, which anyway the British and the French wouldn't agree to. and it gives the Russians rights a veto of it. And the Russians have said that unless a peacekeeping force is authorized by the Security Council,

they will see any European forces deployed in Ukraine as combatants. I will treat them accordingly. In other words, they will attack them. So that's what the Russians are saying. It is very weird that this discussion nonetheless continues with the pretense that this is something that might happen. Even Trump is going along with this. He's claiming, I think absolutely falsely,

that when he spoke about this with Putin, Putin said that he had no problem with it. Now, that is so contrary to everything that the Russians are saying, that I cannot believe that Putin said that. So Trump here, and I have to say this, and I say this with sorrow, is clearly making this up. So why is this discussion?

even taking place. Well, I think that on the British and French side, it's not difficult to understand what they're trying to do. They're talking about, first they talked about a peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire. Now they're talking about it being a reassurance force. They want to distribute these forces right across all the key places in Ukraine, in Odessa, all the major cities, that kind of thing. In other words, it's basically a trip wire force. The intention ultimately is to try to get a situation where there is a conflict with the Russians. There's a backstop provided by the Americans. When the conflict with the Russians happens, the Americans, if they're going to honor the backstop, are going to have to become

involved, that will prolong the war. It's that kind of thinking. And I think that the British and French at the back of their minds are saying to themselves, look, even if the Russians don't agree, if we can manage a ceasefire, we just go around the Russians and agree this directly with Zelensky. So I think this is what the British and the French want to do. So they want the Americans to provide the backstop, the guarantee. Now, when Macron went to Washington, he was trying to get Trump to agree to a guarantee, and he didn't. Trump basically ran rings around him. Trump is saying that he won't give the guarantee. But he did this in a very complicated way. Sometimes he says, well, we won't give a guarantee, but we'll give a very little guarantee. Ukraine could forget about joining NATO.

that's never going to happen, which is ultimate guarantee that the Ukrainians were looking for. But we have to be alive to the possibility that sooner or later the British and the French will try to do this if there is some kind of end of hostilities. And they will use whatever vague words Trump comes up with and they will claim that that is a guarantee. So that is what Trump needs to be careful about. Now, what Trump and the Americans are trying to do is they're trying to offload this whole problem of Ukraine ultimately into the Europeans. Trump is saying the guarantees to Ukraine should be provided by the Europeans, not by the United States. It should be European troops who are responsible for Ukrainian protection, not American troops, that they want to shuffle

responsibility onto the Europeans, but they're going to be very, very careful, that they don't say anything, that the Europeans, that Stama and Macron, can use in the future and claim that that is some sort of an American guarantee. And that's really the entire game that has been played. Lavrov said, it's trickery, and he's right. And there was an article in the Daily Telegraph, which came out simultaneously with Lavrov's press conference, which used exactly the same word. So if they get something close to Trump saying he'll provide support, something close, which they can

manipulate, you're saying that they will make a deal with Zelensky and they will send troops or not send troops? Yes, that's what I think they will do. Even if Trump says, even if Trump says something along the lines of, I support. British and French peacekeepers in Ukraine, but the US is not going to provide support for them. Yeah, absolutely. Do you think they'll go ahead?

They will try and work those words to mean that the United States is behind this enterprise and will provide support for it. So the Americans need to be extremely careful what they're doing. And Donald Trump, who has a habit of talking very loose. loosely needs to be very careful what he says. Well, he said it the other day in a cabinet meeting. He said that the U.S. supports the idea of something like this. The U.S. supports the idea of French and British troops in Ukraine, but without U.S. security

guarantees. So he's already stated something like this. Yes. Does this emboldened? Does this leave Macron and Stammer thinking, okay, we're almost there? Maybe we need one more statement from Trump along these lines, and then we can move forward with sending troops to Ukraine? Yes.

They don't think that they're almost there. In fact, what he said during the cabinet meeting was probably bad for them because he made it very clear that the United States is not providing guarantees. But if he just goes along and says that the United States will support these, this operation. Yeah, he said both. Exactly. But because he said both, I think the one cancels out the other, actually.

But if he simply says that the United States supports this plan and that's a great plan and that the United States will do whatever he can to help. That's where the danger comes. So he's got to be careful. And the problem with Trump is he doesn't always choose his words carefully. The Russians are looking at all of this. As I said, they will never agree to this. But of course, Zelensky will.

Now, even if that happens, even if we get up to that setup, it's not a certainty that it will happen. because in Britain, by the way, finally we're starting to get a pushback against this. There's people within the media who are writing and saying that this is a terrible idea. You're getting people connected with the British military who are saying that this is a terrible idea. And it is very unpopular with people here, as it is in France. So it doesn't follow that it will necessarily happen. But with people like Stama and Macron, it's very popular.

better not to give them an inch, just to say. What happens if Stammer does get the troops into Ukraine? Does Stammer have that power? I mean, can he make this decision on his own? I mean, how does that work? No, I think Parliament would have to agree. I mean, it's always vague in Britain, but I think there would be a storm if Parliament was not consulted about this.

And I think if we get to that point, you will start to see your position in Britain grow. But let's assume that eventually British troops are sent to Ukraine, although there is an announcement of that effect. Well, I think at that point the whole negotiating process collapses and we start to see a conflict return to Ukraine again. I mean, are they prepared for this? I mean, logistics-wise? I mean, are you what? No. No.

I'm going to say this. I think if we start moving towards an agreement, towards some kind of Istanbul plus arrangement, the Russians are going to insist that one of the provisions in the original Istanbul agreement is honored, which is that Ukraine does not deploy forces on its territory without Russian agreement. And I think that the Russians will also want the Americans to agree to that as well, precisely because all of these maneuvers are taking place in the background. But you've got to be very, very careful with what the British and the French are trying to do, because they're basically trying to either prolong the conflict in Ukraine in any way they can

do, or if they can't do that, at least to see. secure whatever Ukraine is left. And Stama has already said that as far as he's concerned, Ukraine is on an irreversible path to NATO. Right. Where does Poland stand in all of this? Because that's the one country that probably does have some capability to enter the west of Ukraine to a certain extent, where they would enter and maybe the Russians might do something or might not. I mean, that's kind of the big question mark. But I can't think of any other country that is. in a position to enter a part of Ukraine with their military, where there is a doubt as to what the Russian military would do. I mean, I don't know. Everyone's talked about this over the three

years of the conflict. But where are they standing in all of this, Poland, specifically Poland, because that's the only country that I can see that logistically and historically could say, could make the claim, okay, we're going into the West. Russia may actually say they may hit them. They've said they'd hit them. They don't want anyone in Ukraine, but there's always that question mark given off of comments that Putin has made in the past about the west of Ukraine that maybe nothing happens. I don't know. If there is a partition agreement between Russia and Poland, there is a partition agreement, in other words, that Ukraine can have its former Western territories. I think that the Russians would

oppose it. I don't think they would be concerned if the polls return to Lvov in that case. I mean, they've spoken about this quite often, and it would be their way of offloading the problem of Western Ukraine onto Poland, basically. So the Russians would not, in principle, be opposed to that. But it's very important to say that. It could only happen if there was some kind of agreement or understanding between Russia and Poland in advance. If the Polish army simply entered Western Ukraine and the Russians weren't consulted, then the Russians probably would still see them as competence. And then we could very well get a clash.

So there would have to be some advanced understanding for that to happen. Now, put that aside, put aside the idea of a partition. Poland is adamantly opposed to this whole peacekeeping reassurance force idea. And the reason it is is actually very, very simple. They know the state of the British army, they know the state of the French army, they know the state of the European militaries altogether. They want those militaries in Poland where they can help. the Poles defend themselves against the Russians. They don't want them going forward into Ukraine

where the Russians would destroy them. Yeah, because the actual meetings that took place was Duda, Macron, and Stamer. So I think that's an interesting line-up of people that went to see Trump. Yes. Yes. All right, anything else to To add to all of this? This whole business of peacekeeping forces and all of that does show you how absolutely fixated on Russia and Ukraine, the British political class, has become. Even as our problems in Britain mount, you go to our media today in Britain, and they're mainly talking about this. It's really disturbing, actually. I mean, I have a recent visitor to Britain, and I've been in touch with this.

I mean, I've been meeting him. And he's been telling me about his incredulity about the level of deterioration that he's seen in the situation in Britain. And he's been speaking to various people. And the British political class seems to completely unfocused on this. If you go to the newspapers, if you listen to the debates that are taking place on British news channels, it's all about peacekeepers, reassurance forces, Russia, Putin, Munich, 1938, appeasement, Molotov, Rubentrop, all of this sort

of thing. Really has a political class. It, well, hardly ever, my opinion, never in my opinion, in my experience, has a political class become so completely distracted out of touch with the realities of the situation in Britain. I can't speak for France. I think there's more debate about all of this in France and more, the political class there is more divided and much wider. But in Britain, it is very strange and very extraordinary, even inspiration goes further and further down, we're talking about crazy plans like this. It's a nice distraction, I guess. Yeah.

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