The Duran Podcast - Strategic defeat in Israel for Biden White House

Episode Date: December 6, 2023

Strategic defeat in Israel for Biden White House

All right, Alexander, let's do a video on what is happening in the war in Israel and in Gaza. And the war is now focusing on the south of Gaza and horrific, horrific days, early days for the people of Gaza at the beginning of this, I guess you could say this new campaign, this operation in the south. But you had an interesting statement from Lloyd Austin. the other day, who said that Israel is heading towards, I'm paraphrasing what he said, but basically he's saying that Israel is heading towards a strategic defeat. If it continues fighting the war in this manner, especially with regards to the death of civilians in Gaza, well, then Israel is heading towards strategic defeat. I think he said they may obtain a tactical victory, but they're going to end up with a strategic defeat. So what do you make of the, of the, of the, the

the conflict after the renewed war after the ceasefire and the comments from the Pentagon chief. Yes, yes. I mean, I think I would just make one quick observation. I think that people have been trying to draw distinctions between North Gaza and South Gaza. My own feeling is that this campaign, this military campaign that Israel has been conducting, it's always been envisaged throughout that it would extend to southern Gaza. It never made any sense to pretend that it was just going to be in northern Gaza. Now, the key comments are those made by Lloyd Austin and off the record,

and sometimes not so far off the record, not so far off the record either, sometimes on the record, by US officials. They are increasingly dismayed by what is happening. because of course you can understand if you're Netanyahu why he wants the war to continue he's got a political crisis on his hands in Israel itself

he's under intense criticism for what happened on the 7th of October people in Israel are very frightened and they're very angry and of course within his own cabinet he's got hardliners

like Smotrich who's the finance minister and Ben Gvir, who's the security minister, and, well, they have very wide ambitions about control of the entire territory of the British mandate and strong opposition to any concept of a Palestinian state, which, of course, predates these latest events, the ones that began in October.

And in a kind of a sense, they've felt their position has been strengthened by these events and their determination to press on has been renewed. So Netanyahu is under pressure from all of this. So he wants this military campaign in Gaza to continue. For him, it's important to keep it going, if only to ensure his own political survival. And we know that beyond the question of his own political survival, he risks facing all kinds of prosecutions and court cases if he were to step down. And that must be a factor in his thinking, even if no doubt he would himself deny it. So you can see the push from Israel, from the cabinet in Israel, from the government of Israel to keep this operation going.

The United States, the Biden administration, is looking at a political disaster for themselves. They are conscious that the president's ratings in the United States are still slipping. They are conscious that many, many people within the coalition that makes up the Democratic Party are becoming antagonistic and alienated by these events, by the horror. that you spoke about in Gaza. They are aware that even in Britain, the Labour Party's position is now cracking and that they're becoming more critical

of what Israel is doing. And they're now talking about a cessation of hostilities. And they're also conscious of the growing political pressure within the Islamic world, with the Saudis and the Egyptians, apparently now working together in the United Nations,

moving towards some kind of security council resolution, which eventually the United States might find it very difficult to veto. They've already agreed to one. They might be obliged to agree to another. So when Lloyd Austin is talking about a strategic defeat and saying that Israel might suffer that strategic defeat, Yes, he's probably right actually in talking about Israel, but the strategic defeat that the administration is actually worried about

is a strategic defeat for the United States and for this administration, especially a strategic defeat for itself, an electoral defeat in the United States, and of course a larger, geopolitical defeat in the Middle East. So you could see that this conflict between the administration and the Israeli government is now intensifying. And you could see, again, the consequences of the error that President Biden made when he

went in October to Israel, embraced Prime Minister Netanyahu. and apart from giving some mumbled words of, you know, calling for restraint, apparently in private, gave the Israelis and the world the clear impression that the United States was going to back Israel all the way. So they're now trying to find some way out of that. It's proving very, very difficult. It's almost like that, no, it is like the same mistake they made with Ukraine to, in a way, isn't it? Yes. You know, they think something's going to happen.

They believe that the war, the conflict, whatever, is going to end up one way. They're so confident about it that they make all these statements. They pour in all this money or all these weapons. They believe that, you know, ships and aircraft carriers going into the Mediterranean, they believe that they'll be able to widen this war out. They'll believe that the countries of the Middle East will fracture and they'll be, fighting one another and they have all of these Assad may be removed. They have all of these, these grand, big chessboard visions, right? All these pieces are moving and they're making all

these brilliant moves. And they double and triple down on these moves. And then, you know, a month later, a year later, whatever, it doesn't turn out the way they thought it was going to turn out. And they're stuck. Exactly. And they're completely stuck. And they don't know how to get out. It's what we saw in Ukraine, the way they, they went so, so hard with, uh, with Olensky and supporting Alensky and Ukraine and everything that they did there is is almost been accelerated in the case of of Israel. Instead of taking a different approach at the beginning of this war, like we've documented, instead of going about it in a different way, they just did the same thing that they did with Ukraine.

I absolutely agree with this. I don't want to say it's exactly saying. I'm just saying the overall philosophy of it, the overall foreign policy philosophy of the Biden White House was the same. I think it's exactly right. I think you put it exactly correct. I think when they all started, the immediate impulse within the administration, at least within the amongst the dominant personalities within the administration, the neocons and all of the people around them, was to go for Iran. So, yeah, the aircraft carriers moved to the Middle East. We now see the Eisenhower positioned in the Persian Gulf, ready to strike it to Iran. We see the Ohio-class submarine with its Tomahawk missiles deployed to the Middle East as well, ready to strike at Iran. We see the moves that were being made against Hezbollah. We see the moves against Assad.

And I suspect what person drove those people, quite apart from the events on the 7th of October, which I think they were seizing upon as an opportunity. But the thing that has really worried them is the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran in March. And they wanted somehow to take big, big, big moves, all the big moves that you were talking about, to use, to leverage this conflict in Gaza, to blame the events in Gaza on Iran, to arrange things so there would be a conflict with Iran. And this is what it was all about. And of course, take out Assad along the way, take out Esbalah, along the way.

This is very much the mindset, the way these people think. If anybody doubts that, by the way, can I just again refer them to that program, which you can find on the Duran, which Glendison and I did with Lieutenant Colonel Wilkerson, who was there in the US government and has actually had to deal with the neocons on a dated basis. You see how they think they're constantly planning wars. He says about how they were planning seven

wars at the time when he was serving in the government and how rude and impossible they are to deal with on a personal basis. So these are the people who are still there in the administration. They completely misjudged

the international reaction. They found that the Saudis and were not going to shift their policies. They were not going to support this strike on Iran, that they're committed to the rapprochement with Iran. They found that the Egyptians were not prepared to play along, nor was the King of Jordan.

They found the Arab world uniting against these disastrous plans, and they also found that the international community was, you know, the global world, the global south, everyone else was uniting against these plans also. And last but not least, they found that the Democratic Party's coalition within the United States was fracturing. So they had to stop their planning, even as all the pieces that they sort of deployed on the chessboard we're still in motion. So we still get all of these massive military deployments taking place,

but increasingly looking as if they are really serving no actual purpose anymore. And of course, we also see the Israelis pressing on with their campaign in Gaza, which is to reiterate again, they were given the green light to do. And the US government, the administration, is now having, switch this on, is finding it all but impossible without experiencing significant political damage in the US to simply switch it off again. So this is, this is, this is, this is why they're caught in the way that, exactly in the way that you described. Yeah. And, uh, we're already getting reports of, of, of the damage on, uh, as far as the, the, the 2024 election for, for, for the

Democrats are for the Biden White House. I think the Guardian, they put out an article yesterday, and they said that Muslim Americans, especially in states like Michigan, they're actively now campaigning against Biden. Absolutely. I mean, this is going to be a disaster for the Biden White House on an election level. And I can't think how they're going to get out of this one. while they're trying to find ceasefires and pauses in the fighting and all of this stuff, and they're coming out with statements like what you're hearing from, from Austin or Blinken, the weapons and the missiles continue to pour in. And this time, much of the collective West media is talking about how the weapons being used on Gaza are American weapons,

which is, it's a bit shocking to see BBC or NBC come out with stories. or the Wall Street Journal saying that these bombs are American. Yes. Bonds. Which means maybe they are turning, maybe they're turning on Biden. I don't know. What do you think? I think they are.

I mean, I think we know, we got all these rumors that within the State Department, within all kinds of, you know, agencies at the U.S. government, there's a real anger, I get the sense with the president and the mess that he's landed the United States in. And it's not difficult to understand why, because, you know, there are two different factions who must be very angry with him. Quite apart from the neocons who wanted the war but aren't getting it. But looking at the sort of more hard-nosed, more pragmatic people. Right, there's one faction who are the faction that is close to the Democratic Party's

younger, more radicalized base. And for them, of course, that that particular... base leans increasingly towards Palestinians and this is a change from historic positions in the United States but it's a it's a change which remember the Democratic Party itself facilitated I mean you know I don't want to remind everybody about the events of the summer of 2020 but you could see how the one has led irresistibly towards the other So they're worried about that. But the other group, perhaps an even more important group

that are very, very angry with the president are the people within, you know, we feel like you can call them the deep state. And they're worried about two things. Firstly, they're worried about the undermining of the US's geopolitical position. They are most focused at the moment on the conflict with China and Russia.

They see the Chinese and the Russians gaining sympathy and support from the global south and from the Middle East, the peak countries in the Middle East, from the Arab states, the Muslim states, because the Russians of the Chinese have positioned themselves very skillfully as being the major proponents of a ceasefire in Gaza. So they're worried about that. They're worried about the fact that people around the world

are saying that the United States is applying double standards, it's protecting Israel, and it is also at the same time as it's criticizing the Russians, even though what the Russians are doing in Ukraine is on a far more measured scale than what is happening in Gaza. So those people are worried about that, the collapse, if you like, of the American effort against China

and even more specifically against Russia at this time. But these deep state people are also one, worried about something else, which is they also are looking at the opinion polls. They are also worried about the fact that the president is losing support. And they are very worried indeed that if this slide continues, someone else, someone they absolutely don't want, somebody who is Donald Trump, might actually be elected president next year. and they are very, very concerned about this. They've been looking at the Democratic Party.

They're finding that candidates for the Democratic Party nomination are thin on the ground to put it mildly. So they are becoming politically concerned. And I get to say this. I mean, I'm not an expert on American politics, as we know, not on electoral politics anyway. This is Robert Barnes' territory more than mine. But this rise of Nikki Haley on the Republican side is quite interesting.

And I do wonder whether there are more and more people who are saying, look, the Democrats are going down. The president is making himself unelectable. the only hedge we have is this reliable supporter at Niacon who is Nikki Haley and let's try and build her up and if the Democrats are all over the place well perhaps she's the alternative that we might be able to find some way of bringing forward I'm not going to say whether that's possible or plausible, but it is strange how she's suddenly gaining traction in the way that she is.

But anyway, that's all rather speculative, and I'm not going to explore that further in this programme. All I will say is these people, these deep state people, who absolutely do not want to see Donald Trump elected in November, they are going to be very, very angry with the president for creating a situation which makes that outcome more likely. Netanyahu, does he stay or does he go?

Well, the Americans look at the United States wants him to go. That's pretty obvious now. It's whether he stays or goes is going to be a decision that's going to be made in Israel, not by the United States. But they will be working. working with the community, the Jewish community in New York, which I believe does have some influence in Israel. So I understand.

I mean, again, I'm not in any conceivable, shape, or form an expert in these things. But I noticed that Israel's former Consul General in New York, I can't remember his name, Petras or something like that. He's suddenly been very active. He's been writing articles in The Guardian, criticizing Netanyahu. I wonder whether that's what that's all about. So they'll be trying to do that. And of course, there are people in Israel itself who don't like Netanyahu,

and there's opinion polls which suggest that many people in Israel think that Netanyahu should go. I think at some point he will go. The question is not whether Netanyahu goes or stays. It is who takes over from him. And will it be another hardliner? perhaps someone even more hard-lined than Netanyahu who himself, or will they be able somehow to find someone else

who will be more willing to listen to what the United States or the administration is saying and someone who they can work with to try to bring this whole situation in Gaza under control? But let me again go back to what I'm saying. When Lloyd Austin talks about Israel, risking a strategic defeat. Yes, he might be talking about Israel to some extent, but ultimately the country he's really talking about is the United States and the administration itself above all.

All right, we will end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, bitch, telegram, rock fin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, 20% off. Use the code. The Duran 20. Take care.