The Duran Podcast - Sumy buffer, Russian breakthrough

Episode Date: May 23, 2025

Sumy buffer, Russian breakthrough

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine. Russia continues to advance. It looks like they are now in the Denebara-Petrovsk region, which is significant. Talk about advancing in the Sumi direction as well. Actually, Ukraine is evacuating civilians from Sumi in preparation for what could be a Russia offensive in that direction. and just in general, a terrible state for the Ukraine military and the Russian military continues to push forward. Of course, the collective West media tells us that Russia is not pushing forward anywhere and that essentially we have a stalemate that is playing out in Ukraine at this moment. Well, there's actually an article in foreign policy, foreign policy, one of the big flagship magazines.

of the US foreign policy establishment. So foreign policy, which says that Russia is losing the war. Ukraine is winning, apparently. I mean, quite where people get this idea from, or whether this isn't just another exercise in narrative construction. But anyway, I mean, that is so completely at variance with the actual reality of the situation on the battlefronts that it's just difficult to understand how articles like that continue.

to get written. Now, with every day, the Russian offensive began immediately after the collapse of the Ukrainian positions in Cusk. So we're talking about a steady offensive that has been gaining power and strength every day since roughly the end of March. And the pace is accelerating, and it is accelerating fast. So firstly, going from north to south, absolutely, The Russians are now in Sumi region. One gets the sense that Ukrainian defenses in Sumi region, right up in the north. Sumi region, by the way, if you capture the city of Sumi, which is around 30 kilometers from the border with Russia, if you capture it, it's a straight road to Kiev. Just to make that point, you can trundle up the main road to Kiev.

It's a certain distance, but it's the direction the Russian army followed when they marched on Kiev in 2022. Of course, this time we're talking about a much bigger, far more powerful Russian army. And of course, now a experienced Russian army, very different from the one we saw in 2022. Anyway, so, Sumi, the Ukrainians are now evacuating civilians from there. There's an exchange of conversations when Putin is talking to people from Kusk region. They tell him, we have to have the city of Sumi itself, because if we don't, Kusk region is not safe. And Putin didn't seem to say no.

He seemed to hint that perhaps the Russians ought to take Sumi, the city of Sumi. Last year, when there was talk about creating a buffer zone in Kharkov region to protect Belgarod, Putin repeatedly went out of his way to say that the Russians were not interested at that time in capturing the city of Kharkov. The tonal difference is striking, and I don't think people have noticed, you know, have noticed the difference this time. So, Sumi region, absolutely, a massive crisis for the Ukrainians in the Kupiansk area, and even bigger one in the Lehman area.

There's reports that the fortified village of Erkamyanska has now conclusively passed under Russian control, which means that the Russians are very close, four kilometers away from the town of Sversk, which is another one of the major fortified positions that the Ukrainians have had. That would once have been considered hugely important. It now seems less important because there are crisis pretty much everywhere else along the front lines too. There's taught that the entire Ukrainian defense position south of Konstantinovka has crumbled, that a whole area of a kind of semi-cordron, around half of it, has now been brought under Russian control. That means that all of the defenses around Konstantinivka are collapsing, putting the Russians

in a position to start an operation against that town, which is. the southern part of the series of cities that start with Slaviansk in the north and go down to Konstantinov, going to the south. The Russians very close now to the important town of Liman. They might be thinking of capturing that as well. The Russians have been steadily tightening their grip around Prakosk, and there are lots of reasons to think that the Russians are already fighting inside Pakrovsk. There's not been absolute confirmation of this, but the report suggests that it's very likely to be the case. And as you rightly said, the Russians pushing westwards, also towards the Dnieper. They've now entered Nehpro region and as has been commented by a lot of

commentators, this is the point where the landscape changes. So instead of getting the industrial and urban sprawl of the Donbass, you start to move into open ground, much better adapted to rapid advances towards the NEPA. And all of this, as there's been sackings across the Ukrainian army, officers either resigning or being sacked, more reports of further desertions, deeply unhappy posts appearing right across the Ukrainian internet, reports of mass desertions from certain military units. All of this is coming together, suggesting that things are not good for Ukraine at all. And we are still probably at the beginning of this offensive, which we're only in May,

there's still June, July, August, September, October, November. these are the major months for advances. And still two big reserve armies, another quarter of a million men, waiting in Russia to be committed to the battle. Yeah, I wonder if the Trump administration realizes what's about to happen, and that's why they're pushing so hard for a deal. This is their last chance to save Ukraine, the state, the entity of Ukraine and Putin. it looks like he also understands this, which is, once they break through Pakrovsk, everything changes. I mean, the open terrain, everything changes. Yes.

Absolutely. So I mean, this is a race against time for the U.S., for the Trump administration, in order to salvage what they can of project Ukraine for the Russians. They're open to negotiating, but they also understand that time is on their side. Yes. But the Russians don't want to slam the door on Donald Trump for many reasons that we've discussed and which we discussed recently in a recent program. Though when I say the Russians, to be specific again, Vladimir Putin doesn't want to slam the

door on Donald Trump. Other Russians are less bothered about that. And, you know, they would say, look, we're on the brink of victory. Let's focus on that now. Let's not worry about the negotiations too much. And yes, we're going to meet with the Ukrainians in the Vatican, which is strange. I mean, it's an odd choice for mediator, exactly. I wonder whether the decision to shift it to the Vatican, which was first floated by Trump,

is a sign that Erdogan, who hosted the talks in Turkey, is now also becoming uneasy about the military situation, and that he too is trying to distance himself from what is happening, and that he also has been talking to the Americans about this, and that this is why in southern negotiations happening in Istanbul, they've been transferred to the Vatican instead. That's what the Wall Street Journal is saying. I mean, if you believe what they're saying, if you believe what they're saying. But anyway, we'll see.

I mean, usually the Wall Street Journal on these sort of things can be quite accurate. So, anyway, we'll see. But I think you may be right. I think Trump himself, it's difficult to know what exactly the briefings he's getting are telling him. But I suspect that Trump himself realizes that we are seeing, you know, the opening stages of the end of the war. I don't know how widely this is understood across the whole.

of the administration. And I generally do get the feeling that there are many people in Europe who remain in denial about this. We talked about the cynicism of many European leaders, that they would rather see Ukraine defeated than compromise, and that is undoubtedly there. But I still get the sense that there are some people, especially perhaps in Britain, who still believe that this war can be won. All we need to do is give a little bit of. bit more help because they still believe all the narratives about the Russians suffering astronomical losses, their economy being on the brink of collapse, you know, a Russian army being out of tanks and all of that.

Well, they believe it because the mainstream media is reporting it. Yes. So, you know, it's just a circle. It's a circle. The one feeds, yeah. The one feeds the other because to repeat again, many of the decision makers, you know, get their ideas about conflicts from what they read in the media. So it is a reinforcing circle, and that is precisely what we're seeing, of course.

Yeah. The Europeans also probably feel that they can wait out the Trump administration as well. If they can keep this going for three years, they can wait out the Trump administration. Once the Russians clear through Pakrovsk, I don't know how long that's going to take. It may happen quick. It may take a lot of time. I don't know. But once they do, it's going to speed things up.

At least that's the thinking that is out there. Well, that seems to be the consensus on the part of both Russian and by the way, Ukrainian military commentators, that we've now reached that point in the war where Pachrosk has become so key that the Ukrainian military effort basically east of the NEPA cannot be sustained if Pakrovsk is lost, that it's become the lynchpin. To repeat again, a point I have made many times. If Ukraine loses positions east of the Dnieper, if the Russians reach the eastern banks of the Dnieper in central Ukraine,

if they start capturing places like Zaporosia and potentially even NEPRO, then already it is the, we're just, already in talking about the end of Ukraine. Ukraine cannot function as a state if it loses what would then be what, you know, it's industrial and transportation heartland. All right, we will end the video there. The durand. Dot Locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, picture, telegram, Rockford. Next, go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. The link is in the description box down below. Take care.