The Duran Podcast - Syria and Erdogan's control of the regime

Episode Date: March 12, 2025

Syria and Erdogan's control of the regime

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Syria. I'm sure that everyone that's watching this video has seen the horrific images and videos that are on social media of the massacres of Christians, Aloites, and Druze civilians in Syria by the HTS-Aljolani government, the self-declared president. and government of Syria. And these civilians seeking refuge in the airbase, the Russian airbase, Europe is silent. Actually, they've come out in support of Al-Jolani and HTS. Russia is trying to help the civilians.

And Marco Rubio, the State Department in the United States, has issued a statement condemning the actions of the interim government or the self-declared government of Al Jolani. In my opinion, in back of all of this, this is just my opinion, is Erdogan in Turkey. I mean, I believe that Al Jalani is Erdogan's guy. But a horrible situation in Syria, a situation that really shouldn't surprise anybody that has been following Syria over the past 10, 15 years, back to the Obama presidency and everything that happened back then. Your thoughts on the situation in Syria? You're absolutely correct.

I mean, if anybody has been following our programs, and of course, I mean, I'm not saying that only our programs. I mean, many people have been saying this. But all that euphoria when the Assad government fell, well, we now see where it's heading. By the way, these are very. events in Latakia region, the attacks on this Allah, whites, the Druze, the Christians, the killings that are taking place there, the people fleeing to the one safe refuge, which is the Russian air base, really distressing pictures of the airbase, the runway, full of people,

out in the open air, you know, living on mattresses, relying on the Russians to protect them. Russian troops trying to protect, patrol the perimeters, all that kind of thing. All of this was hardwired into these events from the start. Anybody who was aware of what HDS was of what the movement that seized power in Syria in December was all about would not have been surprised by this. And as I understand it, outside Damascus, exactly as we said, The situation across Syria has been steadily deteriorating. There's been more and more breakdowns in law and order right across Syria.

There's more tensions, more groups are fighting each other. There continues to be a crisis with the Kurds in eastern Syria. Erdogan, who, as you absolutely correctly say, is the parliament master who's pulling Jolani strings. There's no question at all that he's the person who's ultimately behind this, including the deployment of HDS fighters to Latakia with all the things that are taking place there. Anyway, all of this, even with stories that the Kurds and the Turks are moving towards some kind of rapprochement. Very, very difficult to see how that can happen in eastern Syria without a crisis.

between HTS and the people that it represents and the Kurds and those communities not coming to blows. What we are watching is the slow, it's not the slow, it's the very rapid actually, disintegration of Syria. These attacks on the communities are going to turn these communities against the government in Damascus. The Kurds are alienated. as well. The Israelis who are in the South of Syria are now positioning themselves as the protectors of both the Kurds and the Druze. Al Jolani and Erdogan are trying to persuade the Russians to stay in the bases because they see the Russians as some kind of force capable of keeping the Israelis at bay. The Israelis want the Russians to stay in their bases because they are looking to

the Russians to limit Turkish influence in Syria. But the overall story is of Syria breaking down into areas controlled by various warlord groups and sectarian groups, various communities retreating into themselves and increasingly fighting each other, major powers, outside powers, Turkey, Israel, perhaps Russia, carving out spheres of influence inside Syria itself and the country slowly disintegrate. Is there anything that the United States, that Russia, at any, uh, that the United States, that Russia, any foreign power can do to stop the killings? No.

The Russians are not going to intervene in Syria to reverse this process. I think that the Russians, after the fall of Assad, consider that they have no government in Damascus that they can work with. I think that is what the Russian view of Syria is. I suspect that the debate in Moscow about whether to hold on to the bases probably still continues because people in Russia will say, do we really want to stay in these bases and risk getting sucked into these conflicts? Are the bases that's important to us? Others will say, well, we do need to stay.

We provide some degree of protection to people who have. have been friends with us, Christians, Druze people, Aloit, we can't just abandon these people. Besides, the bases do have some larger function. And anyway, we've been longstanding allies of Syria. We don't want the country to disintegrate completely. And if we stay in our bases, that will help Syria. Maybe we can provide some mechanism.

Maybe we can find some means to help the very, communities in Syria come together. But I'm sure there's a debate about this going on in Moscow. I'm sure that there are people with different views about this. So I don't think the Russians are in a position to stop this process now. I think the Americans have already made a decision that this is gone as far as it can, that there's no purpose left for the Americans to remain in Syria. I think Trump wants to take the troops out of eastern Syria. I think he feels that Syria is another black hole into which America risks getting sucked in. I'm sorry to say this.

I think this is a terrible tragedy, but I cannot see any outside power successfully stepping in and reversing this process, which I think has now reached the point where he can't be stopped. and just has to be seen through. Where is Erdogan in all of this? Like the man Erdogan, I don't think he's issued many statements, if any statements at all. What's he doing in all of this? What are his goals in all of this? I mean, has Jolani acted outside of Erdogan's orders? Is Erdogan going to rein him in?

Is this part of Erdogan's plan? what's his vision of Syria? Because you do have Israel, which I believe they've increased their territorial gains in Syria. I'm not sure how close they are to Damascus at the moment, but they've captured quite a significant amount of territory. They've got a very, very large, I guess you could say a buffer zone is, I guess the best way to describe it. I'm not sure. But you have a situation where you have Turkey and you have Israel and then you have kind of the U.S. presence off to the side over there, which Trump says he's going to leave. But we'll see. What's the game plan here? I mean, how are they seeing things? Just talking about Israel, they have absolutely extended their buffer zone. And my understanding is that their advanced units are very close to Damascus.

I mean, they could be in Damascus within hours if the decision were ever taken to go there, which of course it won't be, because why would Israel want to occupy Damascus? But they are very close to Damascus indeed. And of course, their air force is very active operating across Syria. And they made absolutely clear that they are strongly opposed to the government, Al Jolani's government in Damascus, or perhaps we should call him President al-Shara, which is what he calls himself now again. Anyway, they're very, very, you know,

they're very opposed to this government, or is they say they are. But what they're doing is that they're expanding their area, their territory that they control in Syria itself. Now, as for Erdogan, firstly, I think the most important thing to say about the relationship between al-Shara or Al-Jolani, and Erdogan is that Erdogan controls Al-Sharah. He absolutely runs him.

There was an extraordinary, weird biography given of Al-Sherah in the Financial Times. It was very, very critical, by the way. It became increasingly critical as it proceeded. It ended up by saying that he was not a democratic leader at all, but a strong man. another local strongman. But, you know, it discussed his previous relations with al-Baghdadi, his tensions with al-Baghdadi, all that kind of thing. And then it spoke about lots of unanswered questions about him. The thing was that there was this glaring emission in this article, which was Jalani's contacts with,

the Turks. Anybody who could see, all of the, all of the question marks that were, you know, littered across this Financial Times article are immediately answered if you understand that Jalani is Erdogan's man. He's his agent. He runs him. Erdogan runs him. And in terms of this operation in Latakia, Erdogan, you know, in anchoring. sitting back and waking up one morning and finding that Al Jalani is saying, sending fighters into Latakia, there will have been contacts, there'll have been discussions. Erdogan will have ordered this operation. I have absolutely no doubt at all.

Jalani is not going to take a step without Erdogan, either approving it or instructing it. And I think in terms of operations like the one in Latakia, Erdogan has instructed him. That's my own view. I mean, I can't prove that, but that's my own view. Now, what is Erdogan's attitude to all of this? He didn't, I think this is true. He did not expect the collapse of the Assad government in Damascus. He had up to that point been trying to get a.

meeting with Assad. He was looking for some kind of long-term deal with Assad. Instead, Assad's government collapsed, as we all know, and Erdogan and Turkey were left in complete control of Syria, except, of course, that they don't control Syria. So he's trying to use Al Jalani's militias to extend and reinforce the authority of the political entity that is in existence in Damascus, the so-called civilian government that is there, in order to try to consolidate the authority of this regime, which is the regime that he ultimately controls. And that's why there's been this operation in Latakia.

That's why there's been operations in all other places. By the way, just to say, the operation in Latakia, the explanation for it was that there was an attack by supposedly pro-Assad militia on HTS forces. That's undoubtedly, is true. But that will only have happened because of tensions that must have been mounting in Latakia for a long time. because, of course, the Alawites would have seen the presence of a sectarian government hostile to themselves as a threat, and almost certainly there were problems building up in Latakia over the last few weeks. These things don't come out of nowhere. So, anyway, what Erdogan wants to do is he wants to use Jalani's militias to consolidate control.

in across Syria itself. What is more likely to do is that it's going to provoke resistance across Syria and at some point I suspect Erdogan is going to have to make the decision that he's going to deploy the Turkish army itself to places like Latakia and other places in order to bolster Jolani's regime. I think that's where this is going. I can't see where else it can end and of course That is going to draw Turkey itself into all kinds of problems in Syria. It's going to be a disaster in the long term for Turkey. And it's going to open up Turkey to potential retaliation by the Israelis. All kinds of things.

We are at the start of a process that can only end badly for Turkey. And for the Syrian people, it's the beginning of a long, dark journey, which, well, I don't know where it will lead. It reminds me a little bit of what happened with Libya and Iraq. And, yeah, just the same old. Yeah. All right, yeah, all right. We'll leave it there.

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