The Duran Podcast - Syria carve up begins

Episode Date: July 20, 2025

Syria carve up begins

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Syria. We had the other day, we had Israeli strikes in Syria. Israel, the Israeli military is saying that they were hitting Al-Jolani, as well as other groups. They were hitting their positions. Actually, they hit in Damascus as well, but they were also striking in an area where there is fighting with the Drew's community and the Israeli statements were basically saying that they're trying to protect the the Druze community. This is coming from the Israeli military. Al Jolani, he is, he's been very, very friendly towards, I would say, very conciliatory towards Israel. Of course,

Al Jolani is also backed by Turkey as well in Erdogan. And, That's the situation in Syria. It's strange from the standpoint that you have an Al-Jolani government, an unelected, Al-Jolani government backed by Turkey, a Turkish Edouan puppet, but also a government that has been very, very cozy to Israel as well, now being attacked by Israel because of what is happening with the Druze. community. In the past, Al-Jalani went after the Christians, the Alawites, and the Druze as well. He was terrorizing them and massacring a lot of these communities. But it's the Drews community that Israel

appears to be focused on according to them, on protecting that community. But it's an interesting dynamic that's happening in Syria. A lot of smoke and mirrors is how I'm kind of looking at it. a lot of misdirection. But what are your thoughts? Well, I think we come back to what we were saying after Assad's fall, which is that Syria, as a state, to all intents and purposes, collapsed and that what is gradually happening is that the various powers that now control Syria between them, especially Turkey and Israel, are in the process of carving out spheres of influence. So Israel is now carving out a sphere of influence, an increasingly big sphere of influence in southern Syria.

They're using the Druze community, both as an excuse to do it. And also, maybe they are, you know, they probably do have some collaborators amongst them as well. I'm not kind of discounting that. And at the same time, they want to keep Turkey at a distance, so they've been bombing Damascus. By the way, notice that they never bombed Damascus in this kind of way. in daylight, whilst Assad was in pound. Jalani's been trying, as you correctly say, to be conciliatory to Israel. But, you know, it's not really changed the Israeli calculus in any way at all.

They still bombed him, and he can't do anything about it. And there was even some reports that were floating around yesterday, which I'm not sure that they're true, that he'd actually himself gone back to Italy. to keep away from the situation in Damascus. But the point is, Al Jalani calls himself the president of the country. He does have a militia that backs him. There is still the institutions left over from the Assad area. There's still a finance ministry.

There's still an industry ministry. There's still an education ministry. There's still the central bank. But the government itself has no real authority. And even the militia that Jolani theoretically controls probably isn't very responsive to his instructions from one day to the next because it isn't a proper army. I mean, people are talking about this as an army. They're talking about it as the Syrian Defence Ministry. but it is essentially the militia that Jolani brought with him when he marched into Damascus.

So he's not in a position to resist the Israelis. The only party that can resist the Israelis in theory would be Turkey. Erdogan is not going to go into battle with the Israelis. Anybody who thinks he is and take seriously his rhetoric, I think he's completely wrong. The Israelis are clearly signaling where their sphere of influence is. They're clearly signaling to Jalani and his people in Damascus, that you stay out of our territory, because this is what it amounts to. And the partitioning of Syria into spheres of influence will continue.

Is there the possibility that this bombing in Damascus, at least in Damascus, that this was a way to take some pressure off of Jolani, in that there was a lot of criticism from various groups and various militias of Al Jalani, and that he was cozying up too much to Israel. He was giving away too much to Israel. And so this exercise, this bombing, at least in Damascus, in the city of Damascus, is a way to to maybe remove some of the pressure that Jolani was getting, some of the criticism that he was getting by making it appear as if he's not so friendly

with Israel. I mean, that's why I mean there could be a lot of smoke and mirrors at play. Even Turkey and Israel, there's a lot of smoke in mirrors. I mean, Erdogan, as you correctly said, Erdogan is always presenting himself as the counter to Israel. But we know that it was Turkey, Israel, the United States. that agreed to the coup in Syria and that worked together to remove Assad and then to carve out their pieces of Syria that they would control. So, I mean, you know, Erdogan may say that he's

working against Israel, but I think we know that he's working behind the scenes with Israel. So, I mean, could there be that type of dynamic that this is a lot of smoke and mirrors, but the spheres of influence have effectively been agreed on already. And then I have another question to ask you, which is probably more of a bigger regional geopolitical question, which concerns Turkey and Israel. But what do you think about that? No, I think it's entirely possible.

Can I just say something? I mean, we're talking about Erdogan, and he's pronounced public hostility to Israel. When there were the missiles and airstrikes against Iran last month, It's widely believed, in fact, it's not believed, it's all but confirmed that some of those airstrikes were conducted by Israeli drones and perhaps manned aircraft operating from Azerbaijan. If you look at the map, they could only have got there through Turkey. So, I mean, Erdogan must have given the green light, even as he was fiercely criticizing that

attack in saying that Israel was the threat to the Middle East and all of that, he was clearly. with it. This is Erdogan all the time, and we're talking about the Middle East. And going back to your original point, that Jolani's coming under a lot of criticism, because he's making too many concessions to Israel. So you attack, you get the Israelis to attack Jalani and say, well, you know, actually, he's not really the friend of Israel at all, because the Israelis are attacking him. So that must prove that he's not the friend of Israel. So all this criticism of him is completely misplace. Again, it's the Middle East. It's entirely possible that this kind of thing is taking place. I think it is more likely that some of those critics of Jolani are going to say to him,

look, all this appeasement of Israel, what has it actually brought you? You're just showing weakness. That's because you are weak. And the Israelis, therefore, are becoming. more aggressive. They're taking more Arab and Muslim land and you can't resist them and they're attacking and bombing an Arab capital, which used to be the capital of the Caliphate, just saying. So, I mean, there will probably be those critics too, but it's quite likely that, you know, he's coming back and saying, well, before you were saying I was in their pocket and you could see that that isn't so. So, you know, but this is, you know, but this. This is the Middle East. Now, at some point, and this is what I think is going to happen, even if there hasn't already been a deal between Erdogan and Netanyahu, there is going to be a deal done between Erdogan and Netanyahu. It's just that each side is trying to sort out the boundaries of its particular sphere of influence. They're contentious issues. There's the issue of the Kurds, which is always going to be contentious. Because the Israelis, just as they claim to be the of the Druze, claim to be the protectors of the Kurds. We know that Erdogan probably won't want that.

But somewhere, somehow, along the way, I predict a deal will be done. It will still leave Syria in an absolutely appalling situation. And of course, there's also a real possibility that in this carve-up of Syria, no one is left in full control of Damascus and this most important and apparently very beautiful city will collapse into complete chaos. And that hasn't yet happened. Let's hope it never does. But I personally would not be surprised if it were to do so. Right. So, I mean, you bomb Damascus and present it as if you're going after Al Jolani if you're Israel

because maybe you've come to some sort of agreement with Erdogan that that is the way to prevent some sort of a removal of Al Jolani from his various critics as well. So, I mean, this bombing could effectively be a way to safeguard Al Jolani's position in Damascus and to remove the criticism that perhaps he is giving away too much to Israel. I mean, it sounds convoluted. It sounds convoluted, but there could be these types. With Erdogan, nothing is too convoluted.

I think that's a thing to say, yeah. Exactly, exactly. With Erdogan, who knows the games that he's playing, which leads me to my final question, which is more of a bigger picture question. It relates to Syria. Is there a possibility that Erdogan and Netanyahu have agreed not only to spheres of influence in Syria, but wider throughout the region, they've agreed to spheres of influence. I mean, I say this because Erdogan plays the game for his domestic audience, that he is the protector of Islam.

He's the person that is going to stand up to Israel. But as in the case of Syria, we see a completely different picture of Erdogan. We see Turkey working with Israel and the United States in Syria. So I'm suspicious in that perhaps the deals that they are working on together with Syria may also be a deal for the region in general, given that if you work on the premise that you can weaken Iran, I'm not saying that's what's happening in Iran, but if you work on the premise that you can weaken Iran, along with the United States, you're weak in Iran, then you become the, the two powers in the region, Turkey and Israel, and then you can decide how you want the spheres of influence to play out in the region in general. Erdogan would absolutely love that. I mean, he would absolutely love to do some kind of understanding with the Americans and the Israelis.

And by the way, also the Russians who are not completely out of the picture, to carve up the Middle East into spheres of influence in which he is one of the real. big players, you know, the defender of Sunni Islam and all of that. I think he gave a speech last week along those lines. Absolutely. Absolutely he did. Yeah. So, I mean, he's up.

He would love to have that. He's not going to get it. I suspect because the Israelis won't want to agree it. Not because, you know, it isn't something that Erdogan would be prepared, would not be prepared to offer. But because I think the Israelis at the present time are in a much more aggressive mood than that. And they don't feel they need to agree these kind of deals with Erdogan. Maybe they do about Syria, but not about the wider Middle East.

So I think they don't want to have another strong player in the Middle East. They want to be the strong player in the Middle East. So I think that's the calculus in Israel. at the moment. So for that reason, I don't think there is going to be a deal of that kind done with other one. But if it were ever offered to him, I think he'd leap for it. I mean, I don't think there's any doubt in my mind that he would. Yeah. All right. We will end to the video there, the durand. Dot Locos.com. We are on Rumble and an X and telegram and go to the Duran shop. Pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update, free shipping, on all

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