The Duran Podcast - The Gates of Hormuz (Live)

Episode Date: March 11, 2026

The Gates of Hormuz (Live)

Okay, we are live with Alexander McCurris in London. Alexander, how are you doing? I'm doing very well. A little tired, as I think we all are, trying to keep up with all of this. Catherine, my wife said that you're trying to stay ahead of a super tanker in a rowing boat. Which is not right. So there it is. I mean, it's a lot to discuss and it's a lot to think.

But it is a war and it requires coverage. Yeah. Well, let's discuss it because we not only have Iran to discuss, but I think we should touch a little bit on Ukraine as well. Well, absolutely. I think there's a connection, Alexander, between the Bryansk strike and the Putin-Trump phone call. That's my opinion. No question. I don't know if I'm correct about that. I get to anticipate what you're going to say.

My guess is we haven't talked about this. But look, last time Donald Trump and Putin spoke, we have. had a drone strike on Valdei. Again, Trump and Putin speak. And we have a missile strike on Brie. Exactly. And of course, I'm going to anticipate a lot of the questions from the comments, from the viewers.

And I have the same question. Why does Putin continue with this charade of negotiations? Now in Turkey, right? No, Turkey. Next week. apparently with with wittgolf the discredited and hopeless mr wittgoff how are you going to end the war steve whitcomb i don't know yeah that was his answer i don't know honestly it is it is it is it is causing and no one can see that there are stresses about this in russia um as we discussed i think we talked about this um i mean

laurov's latest comments about this trying to defend this were extremely extremely defensive and so were Peskovs. I mean, the point about the being criticism in Russia is absolutely indisputable now. Even the Kremlin is aware of this. Again, the way that Peskov and Lovov and presumably Putin are defending it is that it is in Russia's interests to maintain contact.

They've also said, and I think we must take them at their word, that they're not making any concessions. Yeah. They also seem to be trying to put all the blame on the UK. Absolutely. For which the UK deserves much blame. Behind the UK is always the United States. Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, this is the thing, this is the, I've come to this year a long time ago, by the way, that when the, when the Russians blame the UK, that is code for the United States. US for some reason there's been a decision not to talk about the CIA directly, but to treat the UK and MI6 as some sort of foil. Because yes, storm shadows were using the strike on Briands, which by the way, obviously took the Russians by surprise. I mean, they clearly had their guard down when the strike happened. But we've had many admissions. from all sorts of people, including officials in London, that the storm shadows without American inputs don't work in Russia

because GPS doesn't work there. Yeah. Well, they had their guard down because they engage in these conversations with Trump or with the United States. And it seems every country goes through the same thing, it seems. They go through a negotiation or a discussion with, call it. Wittkoff, call it Wittkopf, Kushner, call it Trump. Yes, yes.

And they let their guard down and something happens. Yes. It's very, very bizarre. It's not even a Russia thing. It seems every country is affected by this. Well, Iran, to a much greater degree than Russia. I mean, Iran was twice caught without its key military and security officials, having taken steps to protect themselves. And in the second instance, the one that took place on the 28th of February,

Harmonie and his entire family were caught. And now there are reports that the new Supreme Leader, Harmonie the second, as I'm going to call him, he was also in the building when the strike happened and he was also injured, not seriously, well, at least not so seriously, that he wasn't able to become supreme leader. But he was there too. Yeah. Let's, uh, should we get into the questions? Do you want to talk a little bit about, well, I, Moose in Iran? A quick hello to everyone that is watching us on all the platforms. Yes. So thank you for joining us and thank you to our moderators. We have a lot of news to discuss. We have a lot of questions to get to get through. So before we get to those questions, what do you want to say about what's going on?

in Iran. I published your video, Alexander, about 20 minutes before we went live. So after this live stream, I suggest everyone go and watch Alexander's video. And you get into more detailed information and analysis as to what's happening, not only with Iran, but also with Bryansk as well. But do you want to give an overall summary before we get to the questions about what's happening in Iran? The key thing, the absolutely most important thing is that there has not been regime change in Iran. If you remember, before the attack happened, and on the day of the first attack, we said that if there was no military, if the military in Iran remained united, if there was no sign in the first hours that the military in Iran was going to peel away and rebel,

then it was extremely unlikely that regime change was going to happen. And the that with every day the past, beyond that first day, that there was no such movements by the military, and by the way, there were lots of reports that Mossad and the Americans were in touch with the military. With every day since then, we've been waiting to see whether the military would move, whether there would be a rebellion, whether there would be some kind of attempted coup. Nothing like that has happened. The streets are filled with supporters of the government. there's been reports in the Financial Times now that even people who supported the protesters are coming round and are supporting the government and are remaining loyal,

not perhaps to Iran the political system, which they might still have issues with, but with Iran the nation, which is now under attack. And this is creating for the United States, or is there, let's not say the United States, let's say specifically Donald Trump and the administration, who launched this attack, and for Israel too, and for the entire collective West. It is now creating a major crisis because with Iran still in the battle, Iran still keeping the Straits of Hormuz closed, Iran still striking at American bases across the Middle East, Iran still hitting Israel,

the Americans have no real plan from this point on on what to do. They're trying to come up with plans. There's talk about escorting ships through the Straits of Hormuz. The US Navy has apparently made it absolutely clear. They don't want to do that. There was the extraordinary plan to reinsure the ships. That has apparently failed utterly. The money that was put up was nowhere near enough.

We've had attempts to get the Kurds involved. the Kurds of the moment don't want to be involved. There were attempts to get Azerbaijan involved. Azerbaijan, perhaps it's been warned by Russia, perhaps it's looked at the situation. Anyway, it is now de-escalating its crisis with Iran. And there's been plans about seizing Harg Island, and apparently they've been thought about,

and there's doubts about the wisdom of that. So they are looking, they're scrabbling around for a plan, to try to cope with a situation that they've lost control of, and which is now evolving into a major global crisis, with the Straits of Hormuz close, closed, and with 20% of the world's oil supply stopped. The New York Times claims that the Trump administration and his advisors did not expect the Iranian response

with the Strait of Hormuz. How is that even possible? even possible. Well, I cannot understand this. I mean, I simply cannot fathom that. How is it possible that they could not see it coming? How is it possible that they could not see everything that we have just been talking about coming? It's absurd. It is ridiculous. But as I've said myself in previous programs that I've done on my own channel, it reminds me incredibly, said it to, by the way, of what happened in February 2020 when the entire leadership of the collective West, the Biden administration, all of them assumed that if they pressed a few

levers and pulled a few switches, Russia would collapse under the sanctions blow. They seem not to have had any real substitute plan if that failed. And we see how that is playing out to this day and we see exactly the same one, and even more catastrophic scale now with Iran. I say more catastrophic. Iran is a far less powerful country than Russia, but it has fewer inhibitions and restraints than Russia does, and it has closed the Straits of hormones.

Yeah, that's a good point. Iran does hit back. Yeah. Russia does have a lot more restraints. Yes. No doubt about it. Yes. They are different countries.

They have a different situation. Russia conceives of itself as a great power. It is a member of a whole complex network of alliances. It is a leading member of the Brits. It is a great stakeholder in the global, in the international, national system, Iran has been pushed out by the United States for long years from the international system, and it feels that the crisis for itself is absolutely existential. It has to fight back in order to survive. The crisis for Russia is also existential. But not in the same way.

They calculate that they can take time, and the time in that kind of sense, in their favor. For the Iranians, there's a much greater sense of urgency and by the way, a passion. Yeah. Anything else that you want to touch on? No, I think that covers it. I mean, what I will just quickly say is that all of these devices that they're using to try to keep the oil situation under control. Yeah, I was going to. Stories about, you know, that there's already been a ship that's passed through the Straits of Pormuz, fake stories like that, claims that they're seeking off ramps, claims that the war is almost ended, releases of oil from the reserves. What that risks doing, if it's carried on for too long, which all the indications are that it's going to be

attempted for too long, it's going to destroy credibility, there's going to be a complete crisis of confidence that will come a point when nobody believes anything, anything, any longer that the administration or its officials say. most people who are watching this program have already arrived at that point. But people in the oil markets, they have not. And of course, what they decide is going to matter a great deal. Yeah, social media and Trump truth posts are driving the price of oil. Yes.

Incredible, huh? And I bet you there's so many people making money off of this. Oh. As it goes up and down. There are so many people that are just making bank off of the volatility. Absolutely. There is no doubt about it. It really does remind me of Project Ukraine.

Lindsay Graham said, we're going to make a ton of money. He said it. We are going to make a ton of money, he said. No, no. Well, some people are. Some people, of course. Yeah. Some people always do.

Yeah. Yeah, so for Trump, it's very important to keep the oil under 100. If he can keep the all under 100, then he can keep it. the war going and keep on trying to find ways to get a victory out of this. That's why he's going to do everything in his power to try and keep the oil under a hundred. Exactly. Exactly. It also gives him time and space. Yes. Time to form the narrative of victory. Yes. Yes. That's exactly. I mean, that is if you want to look for, if you want to talk about a plan, that is the plan.

The plan at the moment is to keep the oil, the level of oil. under 100. The longer this continues, the more difficult it becomes. Very true. Okay, let's get to the questions. And let's begin with Nikos. Trump called Putin to beg for an off-ramp. I believe Putin gave him terms, which I assume are the exit of all U.S. bases in the Middle East. I don't think that Putin is a Jewish agent like other people are saying recently, but he is helping Trump because oil prices are going down because of it. I think my own sense, actually, is that the call did not go especially well. I mean, Trump is saying very, very little about it.

usually if he thinks a call has gone well, he'd write all sorts of truth, social posts had a beautiful call with Vladimir Putin or something like that. We've had nothing like that this time. So I think this call was every bit as contentious, as a frank, a full and frank exchange of views, as Usherkhov's briefing almost says.

I think a lot of the court was made up of Putin telling Trump what you're doing is absolutely wrong, completely mistaken. You've created this crisis, and Trump trying to push back against that. And Putin, as he always does, offering solutions which are not acceptable to Trump. So I think this is what happened.

And it was a few hours later, what does Putin do? He's on the phone to Pezegov, and he's giving Pezegov, a complete account of the discussion with Trump. So there we are. And a few hours after that, we get eight. store of shadows oh exactly exactly exactly uh unbelievably aggressive petulant action as i said all suggests to me that in fact it was a disastrous call yeah longer-term thinking says if the u.s runs out of things

to bomb and wants to leave but iran still has missiles and launchers it is using what can the u.s do at that point well this is this is of course the huge unanswered question now um on that's on that topic, an article in the New York Times saying that it's, the Pentagon is far from confident that it is in fact destroying Iranian launches, that they have a, they don't really have a hold, a hang over this, they don't really know exactly what's going on. So there's all these uncertainties. And they cannot destroy everything in Iran. Iran is enormous. It's huge. It's twice the size of Ukraine. It's got a population of 93 million people.

It's got huge cities. It's got mountains. It's got forests. It's got enormous desert areas. It is very, very difficult to destroy everything in Iran. What does the United States do? Well, I'm going to make a guess. What they're trying to do at the moment is they're all in a huddle together,

trying to find the person inside Iran. Iran, they can still talk to who might just might have the ability to form some kind of opposition and bring about a crisis internally in Iran. So far, it's not happened, but that's, I suspect, what they're still trying to do. E. E. Keen says, reports I've seen suggest ships for countries friendly to Iran are transiting the strait, which makes claims about mining nonsensical. Well, there's lots of these claims, except that nothing seems to be verified and correct.

And it does not make claims about mining nonsensical, because presumably the Iranians know where the mines are, and they can lead the ships through them. I mean, I'm not an expert in mines, but I've seen how this has worked in Ukraine, and I presume it's the same here. My info says, breaking news, HSBC Bank and Qatar closes all branches after Iranian warning, really. True. Standard Charter has begun evacuation of employees in Dubai. I don't know. Is that confirmed? Well, I haven't seen it confirmed. But, you know, it's the kind of information, which is plausible, but which we mustn't necessarily assume it was true.

Yeah. Anyway, all right. Let's go to Matthew. Where's the off-ramp for the USA? Well, I don't know. I mean, there isn't the role-off ramp. I mean, let's be quite clear, there are lots of off-ramps. The Iranians made a very, very good deal offer in the last discussions in Geneva. And by the way, I don't buy for one microsecond the claim that Wick Gough and Cushin didn't understand it. I don't think they were interested in understanding it. I think the decision to attack had already been made. But it's possible still, it's going to be overwhelmingly difficult.

it's possible still to find some way of agreeing some kind of compromise with the Iranians. I said in a previous live stream that Iran, a previous program we did, that Iran is taking enormous blows. And it seems to me there is a reasonable, there is a rational case for saying that it's in Iran's interest also that the war end. Now, when Iran is ahead, provided they can get not just security guarantees of the Americans, which are valueless, but real security guarantees from their BRICs allies, actual weapons deliveries, perhaps personnel from these countries, also there, that kind of thing. So if there was that kind of diplomacy, if there was a serious effort to try to find a way through, it would still be enormously difficult. But I wouldn't say it

was impossible. The United States is not looking for that kind of off-round now. We've had one telephone call between Putin and Trump, and that didn't seem to go well. Nico says Peppa Escobar, who I 100% believe in everything bricks, has said that India betrayed bricks. They gave the intel of the Iran ship, according to officials. What I have heard is actually something different. Yes, they gave the intel about the ship to the Americans in order to ensure that the ship got safe passage. That it was clear.

They told the Americans the ship has no weapons. It is not a threat. It's trying to return home. This is where it is. Don't attack it. That's what I've heard. Also keep in mind, in Ecos, that for the United States, it would be in their interest to create conflict between Iran and India. Both of them are BRICS members.

Exactly. To create conflict amongst all of the BRICs members, and you use India for that. That is very, very true. Yeah. Matthew says, stormshadows again, what will the Russians do? Well, that's a very good question. I mean, there is, by the way, there's also been an attack on a ship as well, another ship in the eastern Mediterranean. I saw the reports just before we started this program.

So I'm not up to date with this story, but the foreign ministry in Moscow is furious. I get the sense that the foreign ministry has lost patience with this whole negotiation process for a very, very long time. The things that Lavrov has been saying about it, he's clearly. very angry that this process is continuing. I don't know what the Russians are going to do in response to all of this. Putin said that they've captured over the last six months 40% of Donetsk, that they're advancing in every place, that events are going in their direction in Zaporosje. I suspect that the pressure in Moscow, again on Putin is not just growing, but is growing all the the fact that, as I said, already even before these events, Lavrov, and by the way, Peskov as well,

were sounding very, very defensive about the meetings with the Americans. I suspect, as I said, the pressure to bring them to a stop is going to increase still further. Commander Crossfire says, if Iran's terms were the departure of U.S. forces from the Mideast, it would be as absurd as the Russian proposals before the SMO. Maybe why not yet said? Well, I don't think the Russian proposals actually... Go on. No, I just want to ask you, have we had official proposals from Iran?

I mean, I've seen a lot of stuff floating around social media, but I don't think those are official demands or proposals. We've had nothing. We've had nothing from Iran. You're absolutely, and you're making an excellent point. We've had absolutely nothing from Iran at all. We've had what Pepe Escobar has said. What Pepper Escobar gave a report that the Iranians were making these demands.

Alist O'Crook has said something similar. And someone else said something similar. Marandi, Professor Marandi said something similar as well. None of these people speak for the government of Iran. So so far, the Iranians have not made any public announcement as to what their terms for ending the war would be. Their demand that the Americans dismantle all of their bases in the Gulf area, is a plausible one, but it's not been made formally.

Now, can I just make an observation somewhat pushing back against that comment? If you're talking about the absurdity of the Russian demands, what the Russians were demanding in December 2021 and early 2022 was a reversion to the position that they were actually promised at the time when Cold War ended. In other words, a retreat of NATO forces back to the 1998 lines. They were not asking that countries that had joined NATO after 1998 should leave NATO, but that NATO forces, in other words,

the forces of the United States should retreat from those positions. Now, we all say, everybody says it's impossible that the United States would ever accept or agree to anything like this. And it's absurd that the Russians should ask for it. I don't see why it was absurd. I mean, we go back to the position that the Russians had previously been told by the Americans would be the one that would exist after the end of the Cold War. And if we talk about these American bases in the Middle East. Again, I think people are not perhaps fully aware of how recent they are. Mostly, I think almost entirely, they date from the 1991 Iraq War. They were originally established in response to the supposed threat posed by Saddam Hussein, who of course is long gone.

Why, again, is it absurd to demand these things? If you mean that the Americans will reject these proposals, I agree. But don't say this is absurd. From Monty, isn't the protracted closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a double-edged sword that could hurt Iran's cause in the long run, giving the huge suffering it can cause in other places beyond the U.S. Israel. My own guess is that the Iranians have already calculated on all of that. They are, they've got their back to the war. They're fighting for survival. I think they've decided they've

made the calculation that whatever grief and pain it causes them, ultimately it makes more sense for them to stick to this rather than to open up the straits of Hormuz, have oil supplies go around the world normally and that takes the pressure of the US and the pressure of Donald Trump so that he can continue indefinitely in one form or another with his war. So I think that's the calculation that the Iranians are making. Iranian kiddo says in modern Farsi we pronounce it Hormus, not Hormus. The name is apparently derived from Ahura Mazda the Zoro. Austrian deity, but Hormus with S also means Bay in Old Greek or Otomus makes it even more interesting.

Very, very interesting. And thank you very much for that. I'll try and remember that, but I'm pretty sure Iranian kid I could slip into my usual pronunciation. Can I just say thank you again and thank you always for this enormously interesting information? Since it's a place in Iran, I think the connection with Akura Mazda is more plausibly true. Just a second. Niko says a ferry carrying fuel was sunk in Krasnodar. Belgorod is being hit by high Mars, scalps hit Donetsk and air defense and radar in Crimea were destroyed. Today, Bryansk was attacked. We have to admit that air defense isn't working. It can't destroy Western missiles that it supposedly could do before. No, I think it can do, and I think it has done, and it will continue to.

The Ukrainians make these claims about attacks. They do damage. I do think they do a significant amount of damage, except for that attack in Brijansk. The Russians have been very, very focused on that attack in Brians. About the other attacks, but I don't place much weight on. Monty says, you guys always point out that Nio-Kan wars start strong and end up in disaster. The war against Iran seems to have set up. precedent by being a disaster right off the bat. Is the reverse gear coming?

You know, on that, I'm afraid not for a long time. And by the way, there will still be people who will oppose any reverse gear at any point. There is no way that Lindsay Graham is going to change his rhetoric on Iran. They will never give up. They will never give up. They will never give. Yeah, with Iran, with Russia, with China, they will never give up. No. Nikos says the Russian government can't make their case to their citizens. Instead, they're going to whine to the UN where the other members strike children. I'm not sure exactly what you mean by this.

The Russians complain to the UN is, of course, true. But of course, it's hardly the most important thing they do in these conferences. I think going to the UN, by the way, and this is, I think overall it is a good idea. It is something that the Iranians do also. I think that it does enable both the Russians and the Iranians to keep other global governments informed about this. And I think that plays very much to their advantage, by the way. Iranian Kido says on the way back from India, Kratyrus went through Afghanistan. Alexander picked the Gedrosian desert route on Iran-Pakistan border along the coast to stay close to Nirka's Navy.

A third of his men succumbed to elements. It's absolutely true. It's one of the most extraordinary and terrible. events of Alexander's hold expedition. It arguably was his biggest single military strategic mistake. Nico says Ukraine is succeeding in committing atrocities in Russia, and then Peskov comes out and says this could hurt the negotiations. What the hell?

Half the Russians don't follow the war, believe the Western propaganda and hate their government, and the other half that do blame them for this. No, again, comes and then comes the comment the Russian government can't make their their case to their citizens. Okay, now it makes sense. Yeah. It came out of border, yeah.

Yes. I don't think that you will find many people in Russia any longer who believe what the West is saying about the conflict in Ukraine. I mean, there will always be a few. But overall and overwhelmingly, the public mood in Moscow, in Russia, generally, wants to see this war to a conclusion and the events of the last couple of days, these big attacks that have just happened,

they want to, you know, it's going to make them even more solid and more determined to see this happen. My intake about these attacks is very simple. Ukraine has been getting less and less attention as this crisis is, in Iran has been playing out. And I think this was a massive attempt by Ukraine

and its American backers, and we must talk about its American backers, to try to put the attention, to shift the attention back to Ukraine and to provoke the Russians in some sort of way. Whether the Russians themselves should hold back from being provoked, That is an entirely different question.

I would say that Putin has taken this game of restraint extremely far, and it is opening up criticisms against him in Russia. But that's another question. He's using a lot of political capital. Yes. He has a lot. He has an enormous amount. He has an enormous amount to spend, but he's wasting a lot of it on Trump.

Yes, I know. Yes. Yes. J45 says, Alex, when you are on your walkabouts, could you translate some of the memorials you visit? I don't read Greek and you all have a great history in your part of the world. I'll try if I remember. Yeah. I remember to translate.

I'll see. Yes. Eurasianist says Trump is making a great case for Chinese green technology, solar panels, battery storage, and Chinese EVs. Trump's quest to dominate global oil and gas flows, even if. achieved may become a parake victory. I was reading Arnold Bertrand's one of his latest comments, and he described the enormous increase over the last few weeks in exports of Chinese EVs around the world. The world is buying them at a staggering rate.

As you pointed out, China has exported in two months, twice as many cars as Japan at the peak of its car export boom exported in a year. So that tells you. My info says GROC confirmed the information on HSBC. Well, I think that is big. I think that's a big news. Tsunami Bonds says modern sea mines are quite sophisticated. They have sensors and remote control when available are programmed for different scenarios when autonomous and they move.

They are basically torpedoes in waiting. I've seen pictures of one Iranian mine. It's more like a drone, actually, than a mine. As Nudmust says, I believe it was Aleister Crook, discussed this strategy? And Big Samson says, would Russia releasing more oil with the relaxation of sanctions hurt Iran's strategy? The Russians have, in fact, Putin himself. This actually, this is Putin, the more hardline Putin, if you like, because, you know, there is always this side of him Putin. I mean, he tries to keep some kind of dialogue going with Trump, but in other respects,

he can be very hardline. Anyway, he had a meeting on, um, uh, uh, he had a meeting on, um, uh, oil sales. And he basically said that Russia will focus oil and gas sales to its reliable customers in Asia. Now, who are Russia's reliable customers in Asia? Basically two countries, India and China. I do think they're going to sell oil more widely on the global markets. India, so China by itself, has the capacity to absorb all of Russia's oil, all of it. Iranian Kido says Nyarkos' expedition from Indus and the Indian Ocean into the Persian Gulf is considered the first Greek maritime mapping of the east. Greek coins and pottery have been found on Keshem Island and along the Minab coastal regions.

Menab is where Nyajos and Alexander had an emotional reunion. The region was then part of Karmania or modern-day Kerman. Minab and Bander Abbas are now part of Hormosgan province. Interesting, very, very interesting. Can I just say that the ancient Greeks, I think it was Niarjos himself, wrote an account of this whole expedition, disenabled expedition. But unfortunately, it's been lost. cousin ural thank you for that super sticker elza says short-term pain long-term gain does that apply to the

EU Germany and other countries release their strategic oil reserves I thought we had to prepare for a war with Russia was that called off that's a very good point that is a very good point releasing oil from the oil reserves will help Donald Trump he will reduce prices for a short time. It will also help the European governments. It will avoid in the short term a big spike in oil prices. It's like drinking a glass of water, the effect wears off, and then you need another. If there is not a constant supply of oil through the Straits of Hormuz. This cannot work for very long. And then, of course, there is a further problem, because let's say there is peace, peace breaks out, the Straits of Hormuz eventually reopens,

exports through the Straits of Hormuz resume. Then logically, rationally, what you need to do if you've depleted your strategic reserves is you need to replenish them. So at that point, you are taking oil out of the market rather than putting it back in. And that means that for a certain period, if you're behaving rationally, oil prices remain higher, just to say. Lee NYC says, does Trump even know missile strikes are scheduled? Who knows? I mean, I really don't know.

I mean, whether he's like Lyndon Johnson, who used to actually work late into the night in the White House choosing targets in Vietnam. Or Obama, who, by the way, did something very similar, rather more grisly in some ways, picking people that drone strikes were going to kill. I mean, whether Trump is like that, I simply don't know. I don't think Trump's like that. No, I don't think he's like that. He barely reads reports, is my understanding.

Yes, which is one of the major problems, by the way. Yeah. Augustine 27 says, hi, Alex. And Alex, love you guys. Hello from beautiful New Hampshire. God bless Iran. They are fighting for the whole world. When is it in Iran's interests to agree to a ceasefire? Well, this is something that the Iranians have said, that they themselves will decide.

And what they're looking for, and this is what they have said, It's not exactly a war, a demand, but it is, if you like, an objective. They will stop when they are confident that an attack like the one we've just had will never happen again. Now, how that is achieved, I don't know. Eurasianist says, while we may not know all the details of the U.S. India trade deal, where there's smoke, there's usually also fire. Trump, Rubio, Bessent, Carolyn Levitt, the U.S. ambassador, have all said that India has agreed to drop oil purchases.

India meanwhile hasn't forcefully pushed back, but only time will tell. Right. The first thing to say is that as somebody who was involved in a lot of litigation, I can tell you for an absolute fact, that there is no worse expression that this one, no smoke without fire. I have seen so many occasions

when there's been tons of smoke and no fire whatsoever. that I am far beyond the point of being able to count them. If you want a vivid example of this, Russiagate is the best ever example. All of that speculation about collusion between Trump and Putin, all that talk about the Russians having fabricated the election in the United States. I read lots of articles bringing up no smoke without fire, and in fact there was no fire at all.

Now, in this case, the Indians themselves have said nothing up to now. Now they have spoken. There was a statement finally from the Indian government. The Indian government says that India never agreed to stop buying oil from Russia, that they were buying raw oil from Russia in January and February, and that they will continue to buy oil in whatever way suits their best interests. Zim in Seattle says, Hi, Alex and Alexander.

Love your show and have been a Duranite for several years. Scary times we're in. Have you ever had Peppa Escobar on the show? Thanks. You know, I do think so. I don't think we have, actually. Thank you for that. Let's go to Alex Kay.

How soon will the energy crisis really hit Europe? Well, we're already seeing oil, oil prices rise and energy prices rise. And in Europe, we are even more vulnerable because, of course, there's oil, which is going to be in short supply, perhaps, and prices are going to rise. But critically, there's also the question of natural gas, because we can't buy natural gas with the Russians. We have to buy mainly from the United States. The United States, if prices of natural gas start to increase, might reduce sales. So I get to give it six weeks. In six weeks time, if the situation is as bad as we are seeing, then we are going to move from a position,

the position that we are in now of high prices to one of crisis. Of course, if this goes on for six weeks, we are going to see prices already go much, much higher before that six-week period, six-week period is reached. But it's in six weeks or so, I would guess that we would be looking at a major energy crisis in Europe. But the focal point of it will not be oil or petrol at the pumps. It will be the situation in natural gas. Alex Kay, I would not worry about any crisis coming to Europe, Alexander, I would not worry about any crisis because Ursula said she's just going to build nuclear power plants. So she's already solved the problem. Of course, of course. It's all been solved. It's great to know that we have such a wise and genius leader in charge

of our affairs who is able to foresee every problem and deal with every problem so swiftly and expertly whenever it arises. Yeah, and she's very humble too. She said, you know, was a mistake for Europe to turn away from nuclear energy. Of course. So now Europe's going to turn towards nuclear energy. They're also going to invest 200 million. Wow. 200 million?

Yeah. You can buy lots of new house stations without money. And I mean, you know, you can have building them in six weeks. Well, of course, that's no problem at all. It can be done very fast. They're going to create a fund, Alexander. You're going to create a fund. And 10% for the big guy.

Another fund, exactly. That's what they're best at. SCH says Iran ceded its claims to Bahrain in 1971 through parliamentary approval Shah secretly negotiated with the Brits for Iran to take control of the three islands at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz on the day Britain withdrew. Well, again, you are very, very well informed. Alexander Nicoletscu says, what will the GCC choose, Israel or Iran?

Well, I think that they are wringing their hands in despair. They are not going to want to side with either because they don't trust Iran, I suspect, still, and they're probably very, very angry with Iran. But they're also furious with the United States. And I think that the longer this goes on, goes on, and the more and more it looks as it, the United States is not able to solve this problem,

inevitably they're going to start turning to the bricks, to Russia initially, to China eventually too, and they're going to say, please come and save us. Then what even the bricks can do in this situation is another question. S-C-H-R, that's actually Iranian kiddo, weird. You two just changed the handle on me. Wow.

It's Iranian kiddo, okay? that's interesting Bahrain was under direct Iranian control by the late 18th century before it came under British control which explains the Shia population Everything about

the southern shore of the Persian Gulf has its origins in British policy just to say the British played a very big role in the late 19th and early 20th century

in creating this political structure that we see in the Persian Gulf. I mean, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Man especially, where the British, by the way, remained very influential right up until basically the 1990s. All of these places, as I said, was shaped by the British during the time of their empire. And of course, the British also had a major naval base

in Aden, in Yemen, right up. up until the 1960s. Iranian Kido says today a majority of Afro-Iranians live in Hormuzgan province. Their ancestors were brought to Iran primarily between 16 and 19th century. Wow.

Thank you for that. Nico says, Nobody cares that children are dying. I am not going to judge anymore if Putin's decision to absorb the hits to avoid all-out war is right or wrong. I used to have the criticism of Putin after Operation Spider's Web.

That was before I realized that the West was willing to use nukes. People want Putin to strike Europe and go to war. Look at Iran. Look at what these people did to their schools, hospitals, and oil infrastructure. Well, can I just say, we do care a lot

about the deaths of children, and I know that this weighs on Alex and he certainly weighs on me. You're absolutely right that the casual way in which this is being debated in the West has been really a bit shocking. It has been very shocking. Maloney on the question of the school in Iran that was attacked,

she's finally come out. And I'm not surprised, by the way, that Italy, which is a very family-centered country, is the place where people started to talk about this more. Spain? Spain. Spain, well, Spain, too. But on what, Putin is up to and what is going on there.

Well, I think we've already discussed this extensively in the various comments that we've made. So far, he continues to want to maintain some kind of dialogue with the Americans, with Trump. He sees that as in Russia's interests. He said as much. He's not prepared to make any concessions. He said that too. I think a deal was done, by the way, a few weeks ago. After the talks in Abu Dhabi, I think there was a meeting.

I think people, probably people in the Security Council, became increasingly critical. And I think there was an agreement that Medinsky would be sent to the talks in Geneva, that he'd set out clearly the Russian hard line. And I do think that I think that's the position that was agreed, the consensus that was reached in the Crown League. It may be that the events of the last few days, not just the attacks that we've seen in Briansk and in Russia, but also the attack against Iran itself and Whitgolf's role in it will trigger a further discussion.

And that might result in further decisions over the next few weeks. But I doubt that that discussion has yet been fully made. and the way the Kremlin works, the kind of meetings that take place there are unknown to outsiders. Nico says, I see this fury on Twitter. Some people are waiting for a nuclear strike on Russia. Do you still believe that these people aren't willing to do it?

Yes, I think in the end, that there are some people who do want to do this and who are, I think, deranged enough to want it. But I think the ultimate decisions will make, made by military people, even in, you know, the politicians supposedly have control. And I think the military people who are in charge of nuclear weapons, primarily in the United States, will prevent it in the end. Zimman, Seattle says, seeing reports on X of tactical nuke use near Kudz, Iran,

have you heard anything? Mushroom, cloud, and size of explosion looks legit. No, I haven't seen anything. And I'll be very careful. All kinds of pictures are appearing all over the. the place, many of them are fakes, and you can get mushroom clouds without using nuclear weapons. I mean, I've seen the video of it. It looks big, but I don't know about a nuclear tactical.

I don't know about that. Yes. If it was anything like that, I'm sure we'd know. Yeah. Iranian Kido says Dutch and Portuguese had a presence on the Persian Gulf Islands, particularly the Kark, Keshem and Hormus, which is famous for its red Martian-like soil. has the best preserved Portuguese fort with original cannons intact. Oh, I didn't know.

There's lots about Iran. I didn't know. Thank you. You are an extraordinary source of information. Elza says Japan is also tapping into their national oil reserves. China won't be unhappy about that, I guess. Larry Johnson said that Japan will suffer most from the oil crisis. Well, indeed.

I think the Japanese are in a particularly vulnerable position because they produce, I mean, they are very energy, sure, they're not an energy producer on any big scale, and they import energy. So what they're going to do? Who knows? Nico says Putin is delaying the inevitable World War III and nuclear war. It's sad. I don't want to see Russia harmed, but I hope that the people who want war are ready. One thing is for sure. The West succeeded in destroying Putin's image because he acts like a human. I fear what the next leader after him will do. He remains an enormously popular and authoritative leader in Russia. I mean, I was there in June and remember, and I was talking to people, you know, the legal community, but they were very well informed.

And, I mean, they were all united, basically, in ways I've never seen before, in their enormous respect for him. And for the record, the fact that he exercises discipline. and self-control and is self-possessed. That is something which in Russia people tend to admire, maybe not so much in the West, but in Russia it is widely admired. So I don't think his image has, his wider image has been damaged

in the kind of way that you say. He is facing criticism, but Putin, as I've discussed many times, is somebody who adjusts, adjusts his position to criticisms. I think the Medinsky episode in Geneva suggests this. And I think we might quite plausibly see something further about that over the next few weeks. Now, as for World War III, well, I absolutely hope we never get to that position of World War III.

And frankly, I hope you're wrong. from one second let me pull it up here from Vincent there's no need to have a plan B because it distracts from plan A will Smith excellent advice manetje says Alex and cats can bring world peace from South Africa thank you for that Iranian Kido says the loss of Bahrain in the 18th coincided with the weakening of Iran's central government following the death of Nadr Shah. This marked the beginning of Iran losing about a third of its territory in the next century. Yes. Nadir Shah, for those who don't know, it was an extraordinary thing.

A remarkable warrior who bought his way all the way from the lowest levels of Iranian society and all the way and became a tremendous soldier and ruler and, and Victor and it was he who captured I'm sure I'm right at this the peacock throne took it from India and brought it to Iran

just so GBO Farm says if the US invades Kark Island with all of Iran's oil infrastructure there can there can be the how can the Islamic

Republic survive thanks for the time I've actually been reading quite a lot about Harga Island and I discussed it in my video today. And apparently military people who know about these things say it would be a disastrous mistake. It would be a terrible trap.

Khadag Island is within easy range, not just of Iranian drones and missiles, but even conventional artillery within Iran itself. It's apparently mostly without cover. So any American troops that occupy Khark Island would be absolutely, exposed to continuous Iranian strikes, it would be in effect a trap. So the consensus, the military consensus amongst military commentators, is that this is an

extraordinarily unwise and foolish thing for the United States to try to do. As for the survival of Iran, Iran has survived for most of thousands of years without oil. If it's prevented from exporting oil, it's got plenty of other things it can do. Byzantine AIBat says Israel looks more likely to survive than the GCC countries. At the end of the war, won't it be only Israel and Iran left in the Middle East to share power with the USA kicked out? Well, maybe. And I would agree, by the way. I think that, I think Saudi Arabia, which is a big country with a large population, probably larger than the Saudis themselves, say. I think Saudi Arabia probably has some long endurance, but most of the other countries look very, very fragile. I mean, they're basically small. They're city-states, mostly.

Bahrain looks very fragile. Very fragile. Lee, NYC says no credibility left, just saying. Well, I do agree with that, actually. Zodan Marinovich says how many, how many lives recently? How come? Well, how many lives? Thousands already, probably, but I don't know who's counting. Compare this, again, with the war in Ukraine,

where the Russians have been incredibly careful to avoid mass deaths of civilians. The fact that they never get credit for, by the way. Robin asked, says, any chance of the new Syrian government getting involved in Lebanon, particularly against Hezbollah. What are your general thoughts about the situation in Lebanon and what the future may hold? I think that what we have seen

is that the Israeli attacks on Hezbollah that took place in 2024 have not destroyed that organization. It's still there. It's still able to resist. Apparently it's dealing with the ground invasion quite well. I think that there is very little chance of Jolani joining the battle against Hezbollah.

I think that we unpopular with many of his fighters. And I think Jalani has enough problems in Syria itself and trying to maintain control of Syria, not to want to risk things further in Lebanon fighting Hezbollah. Of course, there's the other issue that would his master Erdogan, allow him to get involved in something like that. Doubtful, I would say. Hayes, Grace Tides says,

after this conflict is over, do you think it's plausible that the United States cuts ties or distances itself from Israel? I think that is a very difficult question to answer now. I think we will have to see how exactly this war ends. If it ends very badly, I cannot see how ties between Israel and the United States would not be damaged, whether they would be fractured,

whether they would be broken off completely, I have to say, I think that's unlikely. Empire We Are says the only security guarantee is NW. They are the only guarantee to not get invaded or directly attacked. They'll still mess with you. Ask Russia, but you won't get invaded. Nuclear weapons, NW. The only security guarantee is nuclear weapons. Well, lots of people in Iran are saying that.

I mean, I say lots of people. I mean, people within the Iranian leadership have been saying that. They've been saying it for some time. In fact, as I remember, back in late 2024, there was a burst of comments across the Iranian media from all sorts of senior Iranian military and security and scientists, science people, most of whom, by the way, the Israelis have killed, just a second. But I remember they were all saying, why are we enriching uranium to the level that we are enriching

and not taking the further step? Why is the Supreme Leader sticking to this position? Can he not see that an attack against our country is coming? If we're going to enrich uranium to this level, we absolutely need to take that next step. And a lot of them were also referencing North Korea. And of course, Iran and North Korea have a very long history of excellent relations. So I am sure that if Iran comes through this crisis, that narrative will, that view, that opinion will be greatly

strengthened. And I think it is a good possibility that Iran will indeed go nuclear. But I don't think it is the only way to achieve security. I think there are other ways. There are ways that I would prefer. I think a strong system of alliances, real alliances, that would protect Iran from future attacks would be a better way for Iran and for the region. I think nuclear proliferation in the Middle East would be an enormous threat to all the nations of the Middle East, but ultimately it is not I who am going to take the decision. The decision is going to be made in Iran. Danny says, I would love to hear a stream with the Alex's Robert Barnes and Dominique Cummings about the current state of the world. A man can dream.

Well, I can ask. As I said, I had been in touch with him. I think he, you know, I could, I should say, on the one occasion I've met him, I floated the possibility. And let's say he was open to it. Patristic pixel says, Israel's future, if the U.S. leaves the Middle East, long life to both of you and have a blessed let. If that happens, if that really does happen, then Israel needs to make some very, very important decisions for its own future. It's relied, it's become incredibly over-reliance on American power.

In fact, the fact of American power has caused Israel to embark on incredibly grandiose, ambitious, over-extended, reckless, reckless, reckless, reckless, which I think if the Americans had not been so involved and had not given Israel such an open-ended guarantees, probably the Israelis would not have embarked on. Anyway, Israel would have to completely rethink its entire foreign policy, defence and security strategy and finally make that decision to seek peace. Now, that is what I'm going to say now. of course, if we ever get to that situation, we would be looking at a tremendous crisis and how things would play out at that time. That is another question again.

Nikita says, how difficult is it logistically for Russia to provide weapons to Iran? I'd imagine Iran's Caspian ports are targeted, if not already destroyed. It depends on the kind of weapons. I mean, if you're talking about small ships, small weapons, you know, sort of drones even. I suspect this could be provided quite easily. There's air flights. There's all kinds of ways. Remember, Iran is an enormous country. And of course, it's also got borders with the Central Asian states.

Most of the Central Asian states have very good relations with Russia. Russia has bases in two of them, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. There's all sorts of ways that the Russians could send supplies to Iran if they chose to. And certainly, I think they could continue to send them across the Gaspian Sea. Blippy Bloppy loop says, should it Iran delay mediation by Putin in order to inflict more pain on the U.S. stopping again after 12 days invites a future 12-day war. The pain of Ormos closure is yet to come. Why exit on U.S. terms? Lots of people in Iran are saying that. The IRGC is saying that there is no mediation at the present time between that the Russians,

that the Russians are not mediating between Iran and the United States, because as of now, the United States shows no interest in mediation. Trump has shown no interest in it so far. It suits and it helps the Iranians to maintain contacts with the Russians. And if it's true that the Russians are providing intelligence assistance to Iran and economic help to Iran, and by the way, Pezishkan confirmed that Russia is providing what he called humanitarian assistance to Iran, which I suspect is economic assistance to Iran, then it is in Iran's interests to maintain a good dialogue with Russia. Andrew Novak says, I heard Venezuela and all money went to Dubai.

Have you heard anything like this? I heard it was Qatar into a bank account, which Donald Trump controls. I think that's public information, actually. There's public information, exactly. There's no doubt about it. I mean, it's incredible. It's absolutely astonishing. It's amazing that people have made more of it.

I wonder whether that account is held by one of those banks that is now apparently exiting the region. Would that be convenient? That would be very convenient. Alexander says, is there a religious side to this war? No, of course there is. I mean, remember, the Islamic Republic is a religious state. Sophisticated caveman says, do the Iranians actually have the long-term political will to be an independent sovereign state like Russia, China, or would they prefer to be semi-independent neoliberal state like the Europeans? Well, I think Iran has an enormously long history.

much, much longer than Russia's. And it has always asserted its independence in the end. I mean, there have been brief periods, like after Alexander's conquest and after the Arab conquest, when Iran has been ruled by outsiders. But it has always come back. Trevor Mack says, regarding bricks, each new day provides another reason to develop payment rails outside Swift and the USD. What's your take on this?

Absolutely. I think you're absolutely right. And I think, by the way, that the Indians are fully on board with that. Brooklyn Butterfly Arts says, if Gulf states get together and decide to switch from the dollar to the yuan, would they be able to end the war? Crash the dollar

and end the war? Well, there has been some talk in the Gulf states about them pulling their investment out of the US, I think they're not going to do that. And I'll tell you why, because they must be very, very worried about their own future. And some of the leaders there must be saying to themselves, we need to keep those investments in the US,

because we ourselves might eventually have to go there and stay there, just as a same. Salim says, what would happen if the USA retreats from the Gulf countries? Well, they would need, first of all, to come. to a long-term security agreement with Iran. And that might be very difficult for them. And they would have to reorient and reconsider their entire foreign policy and economic model. But they're going to have to think that anyway, because as it stands, that model is now in ruins. From Santo Rosa, Whitkoff and Kushner are clearly Mossad handlers.

Many people are saying this. I don't know what the connections are. Blippy Blupe Blupe Loup says, sanctioning Iran allowed them to block Hormuz without losing much oil revenue or destabilizing a financial system they would otherwise depend on. Well, what would Iran? Absolutely.

I mean, this is one of the interesting things about sanctions. If a country can survive sanctions, then it becomes, in some ways, more difficult to pressure. Yeah. Sure. Go ahead, you're saying?

No, I mean, with Iran, there haven't been as organized in that as the Russians have been. The Russians have been enormously well organized. But anyway, we see the advantages now. Cat in suit says we must be sending good superchats lately. Alexander has upped his suit budget. Thank you for that. Lucas says, I've seen claims that Iran wants the war to last until the midterms

to punish Trump and the Republicans. Well, they haven't said, they haven't set a time limit. But, you know, that's entirely possible. Real Talk says, what would it mean for the global order if before 2030 we see a defeat of the United States against Iran, a defeat of the West against Russia? If that happens, we are, I mean, we're in the world of the post-West. I mean, that would be a situation where there was no longer. any doubt that the Western era of dominating global affairs has ended. Paul Davidson says,

people stop saying that Olensky is in charge of anything. He doesn't control the army or government. Keep it up. Well, I think he has a certain degree of control. And certainly he controls some of the security agencies. Elza says, weren't you with Pepe on Gonzalo's roundtable? Yes. Yes, I believe that is true.

Yes. Gonzalo, yeah. Humming Pylon says South Korea is getting weaker by the day. Well, I know, and I gather that they were absolutely shocked by the decision, the U.S. decision to pull the Tats out of South Korea. It's not widely known, but, I mean, they destroyed their previously very, very good relationship with China by accepting the tads. And now, of course, they're gone.

And of course, they still have to deal with the fact that China is very angry with them. And of course, they've got North Korea on their door to. Warlock Lander says Putin actually said Asia and Hungary and Slovakia. Yes, I know. He did. He was very, very careful to make it clear that countries in Europe that have been reliable customers will be looked after.

H-28 says, best thing Russia can do is to stay out of this. Iran does it need their intervention on behalf of Arabs? Iran wants a permanent end to hostilities. Well, I think this I do think the Russians are going to get directly involved in the conflict if that is what you mean. But the Russians are tangentially involved because Iran is a brick state and as the Russians say, it's an ally and they absolutely do not want to see a collapse in Iran. I mean, that would be a major crisis for them. I would say that this is always the line the Russians take.

The Russians, the one thing that they are most stressed always about, is instability on their borders. From Brett Ferguson, there is a theory going around that this is a 60 chess moment. move on the part of the Americans as part of a plan to take out the city of London, your thoughts? No, I don't believe this. I know that this idea exists, but I mean, I really don't. I've seen extraordinary claims like the IRGC is a creation of London. One of those things. As somebody who lives in London, I can absolutely tell you that that is wrong. Yeah, I mean, you just had

storm shadow missiles hitting, hitting Russia today. Those storm shadows can, not be launched without the United States. Exactly, exactly, exactly. Yeah, so now there's no, there's no 60 chess going on here. No. Nope. From Sancho Relaxo, the geopolitical apathy and ignorance of the North American populace needs to be addressed. It has been a threat to the world for too long. Yeah, I'm going to push back on that. Americans seem to be strongly opposed this war. It seems to me that the American populists who are always criticized are much, much more understanding and much wiser about all of this than the American political leadership is. Blippy Blupe Loop says the sanctions are the primary weapon hurting Iran. They will never be removed

while they continue to work. Any security guarantee without sanctions removal is just a breathing space. You know what I think about that? I think obviously Iran should push for sanctions to be removed. But what's Iran really ought to do and what it should have already worked harder to do was to develop relations with the states. In other words, put the sanctions aside, stop worrying about the sanctions so much,

develop a strong economic relationship with Russia and via Russia with China too. Elsa says five minutes with Iranian kiddo and Callis's brain would explode. True enough. I don't know. It might be the other way around. If Iranian Kiddo was stuck with Kayakalas, I don't know, Iranian Kiddo, do you think you could last five? That's a very good point, yes.

Eric Hatchet says, on the U.S. farm, we ordered 10,000 gallons two week wait. no price, lock, and allotment for the mess. Well, exactly. Well, thanks to that. Thank you for that. 2003 ref, thank you for that super sticker. Hubert 10 Abel says, Trump is the same as the green man.

He made a lot of promises to end the war, but the whole world is on fire. Yes, I'm afraid you're right. Empire We Are, says Israeli F-15I models were built to carry and deploy American. can B-61 series NW. This would probably be very hard to find on the internet because it was very guarded information back in the 90s.

Yes, I've heard the same thing, actually. I've seen it reported as a matter of fact, and I believe it is true. I have assumed, by the way, that the United States has a kill switch over Israel's nuclear weapons use. In other words, that, you know, they can technically prevent Israel using its nuclear weapons.

I'm afraid I've been told that that isn't so, which I find extraordinary and very, very concerning. Radavid says the enlightened wisdom of the leadership of European utopia, EU, the utopic states of America, USA, cannot be questioned. Every humble subject knows that heresy will be stricken with powerful sanctions. Well, indeed. Absolutely. Ask Jacques Bo. Chris says, why is no one in the U.S. taking steps to impeach Trump over this huge debacle? Well, they might, I mean, I think from the Democrat point of view, they need to win the Congress. Who says they're not? Who says they're not? They're waiting for Congress, yeah. And my guess would be, Alexander, that a lot of Trump's buddies, maybe even his golfing buddies, are going to be the first people to throw them under the bus if they lose Congress.

Absolutely. Can I just say something? You know, I've been reading National Review, William Buckley's magazine, which was an ardent supporter of the war. I've been reading The Daily Telegraph in Britain, which is an ardent supporter of the war. They've been campaigning for years for an attack on Iran. Now already they're starting to say,

well, maybe it was a mistake in its Trump's fall, just to say. Yep. there's a rumor also about Susie Wiles I don't know have you read that rumor Alexander no no I haven't I mean there's so much It's a rumor it's a rumor that she's going to leave after the midterms I don't know how true that is

It wouldn't surprise me Yeah Samuel Moroni says does this work expose Colby's new NSS as a charade Well I think that clearly Colby's advice Was not listened to he's one appearance in Congress

he clearly was very, very unhappy. I think he's clearly been pushed aside. Fragments of USSR says Alexei Chadeyev says the Indian negotiation strategy is say you agree to everything, then do nothing until the other party comes with better terms

and keep doing it until all their desires are guessed. But there you go. Not about negotiating strategy, by the way. Jeffrey, thank you for that super sticker. 2003 refs says, Alex, please learn from Alexander how to pronounce Russian names properly. He has been reading my comments and is improving.

Love you guys. Thank you. I will try. 2003, thank you. Empire, we are, says the whole Israeli nuclear weapons program being indigenous is all bullshit. Oh, I agree with that, actually. I mean, I think the first nuclear weapons program,

bombs that Israel created in the 60s were probably mostly indigenous. But I think that the relationship between the U.S. and Israel has been so close for so long, that it is almost inconceivable. It is inconceivable to me that there hasn't been a huge amount of American technical input into it. Double down says, Then we will fight in the shade, fearless defiance. That's a quote. well.

Stephen G. says lots of talk about munitions being moved from the far east for this war. South Korea and Taiwan must be feeling very nervous after this. Yes. I mean, people are talking about the Russians being big winners. I think the Chinese, well, I mean, they must be looking at all of this. And they're saying, yes, there are problems for us. The Russians have said there are problems for us. But the Chinese are saying that for the moment at least, it suits.

to have the U.S. bogged down in the Middle East and the American military position in the Far East wakening. Eurasianist says South Korea's then-president was against the deployment of Thad, but South Korea, U.S.-led military command, did it anyway without notifying him. That's how things work in vassal states. Yes.

From Kain, it's always good to see. the Iranian kiddo in the chat. It certainly is. Celestia says, is it possible that Trump deliberately delayed the end of the war in Ukraine in the hope to use this issue as a negotiating tool with Putin in anticipation of the war in Iran? Who knows? I don't think Trump has the ability to think in that really clever, that kind of clever planned way that you just suggested. I think that Trump went through various different plans and projects for ending the war in Ukraine, but he's never really taken the step that he needed to take to really end it

because he always thought that Putin eventually would cave. This is the mistake Trump makes. He always expects people to cave to what he wants. I will say this, Alexander, and I think you'll agree with me, Trump definitely was thinking that once he gets the regime change in Iran, he will have leverage over China in the meeting in Beijing in April. Yes, absolutely. No question. No question at all. And it's strange that people are forgetting the fact that in two weeks time he's going to China. And that trip, by the way, is still, it's still scheduled. Chris M says,

here is a little something for the Nicosia Cyprus Feeding Fund. How do you feel about Professor Yuan? He's gone viral with his theories about the war. Yes, I think he's a very interesting man. We've had him on, and I think we should have him on again. We had him on a while ago, actually. Monty 105 says, I'm kind of worried about the answer I'll get,

but what needs to happen for lunatics like Graham to finally be put in their place? The American people must vote them out and vote in other people who will change the situation in the United States. Now, I'm fully aware of how difficult that is. I'm fully aware that it has been attempted many, many times. I don't have a simple answer to this because it's become increasingly clear over the last 10 years that the deep state in the US is a kind of high. you lop off one head and two grow in its place.

So this is very, very difficult to do. But it does require a root revolution in the United States itself. And I'm sorry to say this, and this I say by the way, without any desire, I'm beginning to wonder whether to achieve that change in the United States, some major foreign policy disaster is needed first. I had this very discussion, by the way, with John Meersheimer once, and he also thought that that might be what was needed. Nikki Henley says, thank you, Nikki for that.

Danny Mutanda says, is Kaini, Kani dead? Was he or is he a traitor? Well, I didn't know that K-K-U-A-A-A-N-I, Kani. I'm not sure. Maybe Iranian Kid I know who this is. Nico says, I don't think that Putin insists on keeping the door open. The issue is Russians want to strike Europe. They want blood because others are animals.

I think Putin is somebody who tends to look very much for the long term. I think he also, people never, I mean, he confirmed this. He actually said in a Security Council meeting, it was actually public. He said to them, again, I remember looking at all the faces. They're looking like very, very stony. But he said, you know, you do all understand that the Chinese and the Indians and our other BRICS partners all want us to do this thing. So I think he thinks, you know, very much about high strategy. And he's one of these very rational people who perhaps doesn't quite understand sometimes

that the world doesn't always follow a purely rational course. From Brulaham, I hope to see Nema Parvini on the show again. Excellent analysis early on great many issues. getting pushed back and ultimately being correct. Well, I think Neva Parvina is brilliant. We've got to get him on. We've got to contact him. Yeah.

We're really bad at contacting people. Well, we're so busy. I mean, that's the other thing to say. I mean, we have to spend hours and hours trying to keep up with events. It's always easy to know exactly all the things that do all the things we do. Just saying. Yeah, let's see here. Alexander, I had another question queued up.

Elza says, Karg Island reminds me of Olenski's Snake Island. The Green Goblin should be consulted how to capture it. He isn't only an expert on drones, you know. You know, I made exactly that point in my video today. I actually went to a whole discussion comparing Harg Island with Snake Island, just so. Manfred today says Trump is the Iran War candidate. Nick Fuentes, 2004.

Yeah. Very true. Brulaham says, could you get Professor Postol on the show to discuss ballistic in air defense? He's great on the issue, and way too many dilettants are mistaken on this. Absolutely.

I completely agree, and I think we should. Iranian kiddo says, you're absolutely right. The peacock throne, Nader took from India, is lost to history, but the famous jewel called Coenor or Mountain of the Light

in Persian survived. Absolutely. And it's in London in the Tower of London, and it is on the crown of the queen. And Iranian Kido says the jewel after neither's death passed through several Afghan rulers before ending up in Mughal Empire, following the Mughal defeat by the British.

It ultimately ended up in British possession. Indeed, I've seen him. There you go. Dark Horse One of three There is an unspoken social contract Older than any nation Going back to the tribe

The Strong must protect the weak And help them grow to be strong The weak must endeavor to grow And be strong I gotta find The Other Parts Dark Horse One second Part 2 of three

When the contract is violated by a party, society starts to degrade until revolution occurs. Often this happens from overabundance. It creates rot. And I need to find part three or three. Here we go. What will happen to a society like the West where both the strong and the weak have abandoned their mutual obligations to one another in order to embrace greed, envy, victimhood, etc. Well, I think you answered your question yourself. that it results in decay and crisis, and isn't that what we're already seeing? Brulaham, Part 1 of 2.

Could you ask previous guests about mistaken calls and do a quick retrospective? It gives them a chance to explain their mistake and rebuild trust. For example, I can't take ridder seriously. He's made too many claims that do not pan out, and people never ask for, never asked to clarify, explain the mistakes made.

Well, I'm not here to criticize us as other commentators, if I can just say. But we all make mistakes, and I've made many. Sir Smagnol the Good. I do not fear God. I fear Persia, Alexander the Great 334 BCE. Wow. That's an interesting quote. That's an interesting book, yeah.

One second, Alexander. A Fallen Crow says, Kim Jong-un did nothing and won again. Okay. That's very true. The alchemist said, in my opinion, this has little to do with Iran and more to do with China. It looks like an attempt to pressure China before the visit. Iran was simply the only card Trump could play. Well, I have to say, if that is the thinking, that was the thinking, it was incredibly bad thinking.

I mean, look where it has landed Trump on the eve of his trip to China with a war that is spiraling out of control. I don't think one should ever conduct diplomacy in that way. The United States actually has lots of cards to play in its dealings with China. It just isn't playing them well. Definitely Trump is always looking for leverage before he speaks. with any and any leader would be first people with anyone he's always looking for leverage so no doubt he was hoping that this thing would be wrapped up and he was going to go see jing jimping with with iran in in his pocket there's no doubt about that i agree i agree uh the alchemist says

oh no i just read that i just read that uh niko says i say that no one cares about children dying is because they keep dying uh look look at the u n attitude We don't care what you say. We do what we want. Iranian Kiddo says the diamond was sent to the Queen Victoria and became part of the British Royal Collection. It was mounted on the Queen Mother's Crown. Absolutely.

There's a story in Britain that it's fatal for a man to wear that jewel, but that a woman who wears it will rule the world. Just a second. From Adriatic Heart, I feel bad for Kim J. he must feel left out he seems to be winning a lot he seems to be winning an awful lot and i mean he's busy rebuilding piongyang and he clearly is on a role yeah and he doesn't even do anything he's on a role yeah yeah uh michael leblanc says the u s in britain ruined any potential relationship we could have had with iran with the coup of moseph in the 50s absolutely i completely

agree with that. A democratically elected leader with a vision for Iran, which is both well adapted to Iranians, Iran's conditions and aspirations, and which would have been compatible with the West. But of course, the British didn't want it because he wanted to nationalize the Anglo-Iranian oil company, which is, of course, British owned. Celestius 8635 says, are we in the midst of World War 2.9? The web of proxy wars in Ukraine, the Middle East and beyond is arguably what can most resemble a World War III today. I don't think that it is a world war. And I think, again, we should be very careful about using that word.

What we are looking at is a period of very intense great power conflict, which falls just short of war. And usually this kind of great power conflict happens when one is in a period of major transition from one period of great power dominance to another, which is what we're seeing, I suspect, now. E. Keen says, I stand corrected on the technical possibility of Iran mining the strait while allowing vessels through, though I still believe this mining narrative is a product of the U.S. problem created and solved by sinking inactive ships. Well, maybe. Yeah, it's funny that Trump used the word inactive.

Yes. Perfect. Did we answer this? South Korea's then president was against the deployment of that. We did. We did. Zaryl says, thoughts on North Korea and South Korea reunification talks. I think this is a long way off.

I get the sense that Kim Jong-un is actually much less interested in reunification. that his father and grandfather were. He's on a role. He's in a position of enormous advantage. I think he feels very secure where he is. I don't think he's particularly interested in it at the moment. And I don't think he's going to go very far. From Lee, Lee, NYC, there is no guarantee that U.S. elections will be held.

Dems blew their wad on Russia gate and one six plus they are too stupid to live. I don't know whether there is any legal mechanism in the United States to postpone elections. Just saying, I cannot remember any occasion when it's ever been done. I think that postponing elections would in effect amount to a constitutional coup. And I think that would create a major, major crisis. Matthew says if Russia retaliates against the West, will that spiral to World War III? Well, I think the Russians will always measure any retaliation to avoid those possibilities. Empire We Are says Alex and Alexander. In the 90s, I built F-15s, Avionics, EI, and S models.

I would love to talk if I knew how to reach you on or off camera. Well, we would love to do that. Telegram. Telegram. Yeah, Telegram is a good place. It'd be up on Telegram, Empire. Yes. Adriatic Hart, thank you for that super chat.

Double down says bricks is a decoy for true power, China and Russia, similar to Iranian decoys designed to absorb hits and attrition, the new crusades before they arrive Asia. I made that point many years ago that the Russians and the Chinese back in the 2000s basically forged what is in effect an alliance with each other. they don't want to admit that it's an alliance. And in order to conceal the fact that they have this alliance, they've woven this network of communities around themselves,

Bix, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the collective security treaty organization, the Eurasian Economic Union, all of those things, which basically their purpose is in part to focus away attention from the fact that beneath it all there is this very clear alliance between these two great powers. Akraman, thank you for that super sticker. Humming Pylon says, will Lloyds stop insuring ships in the strait?

Well, I think they have. I think that's what they've done. I mean, well, I don't know, but they've stopped insuring them, but they're telling that they do not have cover to go through the Straits of Hormuz. And there's been a good article about this, that if they did, if they allowed ships to go through the Straits of Hormuz, and ships started to get sunk, the state of the maritime insurance industry is such

that it would provoke an enormous systemic crisis that would have an effect across the entire global financial system. Sophisticated caveman says, is the U.S. attempting to politically encircle Brazil and South America, attempts to sway Argentina, Venezuela and others to gain long-term leverage? There may be such a plan. Certainly, there is a current opinion in the United States that does basically see Latin America as a kind of part of the American heartland or, or anyway, it's the American sphere. and that they are determined that they and they alone should control it. And quite possibly they see Brazil because it's so much bigger

and potentially more powerful than any of the other Latin American countries as the rival that they need to contain. So it's not impossible. Renat Nadu says, I have family in Russia. I know Russia is not trying to take over Europe. Most Russians are trying to pay the bills and take care of families, but the Russians are determined and loyal to the country.

country. Yeah, here. Klaus says the U.S. Germany and U.K. economies show the importance of choosing intelligence leaders compared to China. Well, quite true. Monty 105 says, how about a live stream with Philip Pilkington on the economic consequence of the Iran war? He looks and sounds like a very solid macroeconomist.

Interesting. Yes, maybe. Spock 23 says, names not on the Epstein files. the controllers, Bush 1 and 2, Cheney, McCain, Romney, Reed, etc. Well, are you sure they're not there? I mean, bear in mind, there's so many of the past that have not yet been published. Just say. Paul Davidson says, try to have on your show Christopher Helali from DDG geopolitics.

He is an American-Iranian Greek, just saying. Okay. Thank you. Spiral Bear, thank you for that super chat. Oli Feist says, do you think Russian? will take advantage of America's distraction, maybe push into Odessa. Is there any chance the EU would send troops to Western Ukraine? I think the chances of the latter are now greatly reduced, actually. I mean, with the diversion of American military power to the Middle East, I think the

idea that European troops could go into Ukraine and fight the Russians, given that an American backstop is not really going to be possible to be provided. I think that is greatly reduced. As to the first part of your question, the Russians are preparing a major offensive. It's going to start in April. I think the major Russian objective remains Dombas and Zaporosia. Putin said that they only have 15% of Dombaz, or Dotsk still to capture, and I think that will be their primary target. Once they've finished with those, yes, I think Odessa is there on the horizon. Is Moshtaba on ventilator in ICU? Who next to lead? Can you repeat that? Kamene, Khamene is the new, yeah, in the ICU.

Well, he's certainly a target. Who else is, who else would follow him? I suspect there's already been a decision made. By the way, I think the reason there was a delusage. There was a lay announcing that he was the Supreme Leader, the U-S Supreme Leader, is because he was wounded in the original strike, which killed his father. Interesting.

From Coevisor, can the West come to peace with Russia and the rest of the world and how will the rest of the world help the West find its feet or leave it to rot? Now, I think they would. I think Putin himself, by the way, has spoken

at length about this. He said that in a multi-polar world of the kind that is being formed. The West absolutely is welcome and would have a role to play. The trouble is, at the moment, we don't want to play that role. We want to still remain the privileged, powerful players that we have become used to be. Ms. Texas G says, question, is there a chance that Romanian is. interests, wherever they are, are now targets of Iran. Yes.

There's stories that the U.S. is going to use bases in Romania, whereas the strikes on Iran, and of course, Romania, Romania is potentially within the range of Iranian missiles. So it's certainly possible. Yeah, very possible. Esoteric philosopher says, Alexander, do you suspect there are back channels in 10, by Russia and China to disabuse Israel and the US of any thought of going nuclear.

I am sure that there are such back channels, and I'm sure that there is contact at that level between the militaries about the political leaderships. I doubt that there are. From the alchemist, simply put Iran was a trap for the West all along. Well, a trap would imply that somebody created this trap on purpose. If it is a trap, it's one which we have walked into all by ourselves. Elsa says it was shocking to hear that Lindsay Graham wanted to go to South Carolina. Wow, did the foreign policy president really go? I'm not sure. Absolutely. It is incredible. Why would he visit South Carolina of all places?

He's got others so much more important places, the closer to home to go to South Carolina. What's that? Where's that? Where's that? The dark horse says you, fellows, have always been a great touchstone in the midst of the gaslighting. Thank you for leading the lives you've led that brought your wisdom. Thank you very much.

Thank you for that dark horse. Iranian kiddo said Iran was ruled by several. non-Iranic powers, including the Macedonian Greeks, during their period of conquest, the Arabs beginning in the 7th century, the Seljuk Turks in the 11th century, and the Mongols in the 13th century. Yes, but it's always come back, and it's always fought for its independence, and I suspect it will continue to do so. Chris M. says, Ritter has in multiple occasions said he's made mistakes.

Yes. Fleece says, what will it take for the Western Alliance, and in particular to the U.S. to stray from this approach of global dominance? Are we watching the beginnings of this process with this war? Well, I think the process has been underway for some time. But as I said, I go back to what I said previously. I wonder whether it will require a big defeat finally to put this idea that we can, can exert that global dominance to an end. Though even then, I should say people like Graham, people like others like him, you know,

all of the Newlands, all of those people, they will never look back, say that we were wrong. They will always insist that they were right all along and they will continue to press for some kind of aggressive foreign policy to the extent that it's possible for the United States to undertake it. They will never change. Achriman, thank you for that super sticker. Iranian kiddo says many of these rulers assimilated and essentially became Iranians.

For example, Hulagu Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan, who ruled Iran, famously loved Persian poetry, leading to a flourishing of literature during his reign. Yeah. Thank you for that, Hirani Kido. Lee, Lee, NYC, says implementing Insurrection Act could delay election. Well, I don't know about the legalities of this. As I said, I've never known of it being done. And as it would be, I think, one, enormously controversial.

And two, effectively a coup. And there's never been a coup up to now in the United States. From Iranian kiddo, modern Iranian state, as we know it today, was not established by Iranian ethnic groups themselves from the fall of the Sassanid Empire in the 7th century until the rise of the Safavid dynasty in the 16th century. Nico says Kim Jong-un and his relationship with his daughter really reminds me of Stalin and his daughter, this dysectomy of being a brutal monster and a human. Well, can I just say, I mean, there is a major difference, which is that Stalin kept

Svetlana very, very private. I mean, the Soviet people would not have. have known of her existence, whereas Kim Jong-un is putting his daughter constantly visible, making her, he appears with her everywhere now, which is, of course, provoking an awful lot of attention and making an awful lot of people wonder what that's all about. What is that all about? Matthew says, how long can the Iran war realistically last? Well, that is an excellent question. The Iranians say as long as they choose it to.

Elsa says this week Putin said that Russia would sell energy to Europe if they could agree on reliable long-term contracts. EU and reliable. He sure was joking. He was. I mean, they made it very clear. Other Russian officials made it very clear that what he was referring to was a complete change of the political leadership in Europe.

We we we Karen thank you for that super sticker Mitchell LeBlanc says I hope that countries that the US bombs knows the average Americans are against these actions and eventually when we have the ability to vote out the deep state we can recreate real relations with the east well I think I think in many countries they do know that of course in Iran at the moment they're very angry and what they think and what they feel I don't

know. Iranian Kido says modern, unified Iran, as we know, was established by the Safavids in the 900 years after the fall of Sasanids and established Shiism as its religion. Safavid were Turkish-speaking Iranians of Azerbaijani ethnicity. Interesting. Kudvisor says, can the West come to peace with Russia and the rest of the world? I read that, actually. Yes.

I already read that. and an Iranian state, I think I got everything. One second, Alexander. Here from Pinto Raul, do you see IS coming to the scene to defend the Arab states after the collapse of their monarchies? Defend the Arab states or take them over and establish the Caliphate? I think many of the Arab leaders would probably find them, and many of the Arab people probably would find them,

not defenders, but conquerors, and conquerors of a particularly sinister kind, just to say. Itchon 83 says, don't see a single reason Ritter should apologize. I just am not going to discuss other commentators. Nor do we, yeah. I think you were very clear. Everyone has analysis and makes mistakes.

It makes mistakes. Yeah. Iranian Kido says historically, Azerbaijan always included Tabriz and Ardabil in Iran, which is how Iranians define Azerbaijan. The country of Azerbaijan was changed to the name by the Soviets only in 1918. Yes, I heard the same. By the way, I understand the two-thirds of people who self-identified as Azerbaijanians live in Iran. it's a much bigger population than that in the

former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, which is now, of course, the Republic of Azerbaijan. Commander Crossfire says Israeli leadership is in Florida and Europe. Why don't the Iranians act the same? Their independence, both their strength and weakness. I think that the Iranians care about

their independence and awful law. Joanna says for Cyprus cats. Thank you for that, Joanna. Bobo Brabb says, what is your outlook on the future of the Middle East region in terms of Israel's future national security, especially after a potential U.S. loss? I think we've basically covered this already.

I think we might even have answered this question, actually. If the United States leaves the Middle East, we are looking at a completely different Middle East. It would be something very difficult to imagine today, and Israel would have to do a major rethinking of its foreign and defense policies. Sherman Shulton says, can you get Saxon McGregor in the same place with Kelly and Petraeus? That is very, very tall order, actually.

Do we really want Kelly and Petraeus? Yeah. dress especially just a set very true okay alexander i think um i think that's everything let me let me do a final check and uh your final thoughts as i do well i mean i think this has been a magnificent a magnificent live stream and thank everybody for coming we will see where where things go but at the moment it seems to me that they're not going well for donald trump or for netanyahu or for lindsay graham or for any at the other authors of this of this enterprise and unfortunately as is always the way with these near con wars a lot of people are dying children but other people too and we're all affected one

way or the other and affected badly and we will never see any contrition from these people however badly it turns out as well but anyway go on they will get promoted i was going to say they get promoted yeah exactly miss texas g says for the cats for the time being yeah thank you miss texas g for that and i think that's a wrap alexander that's a wrap well we'll keep we'll keep working on this keep everybody informed and thank you all for

joining us today and we'll be live tomorrow as well so it'll be a an earlier live stream so keep that in mind Excellent. Okay, take care everyone and thank you to the moderators and thank you to everyone that joined us on all the platforms. Keep in mind that I published Alexander's video on his channel and I published my video as well and it all kind of coincided with the live stream. So definitely check out the videos that we published. Absolutely, absolutely. A lot of the topics that we've discussed, we go into very much greater detail.

You definitely do. I kind of hit the topics for you. You go into the more detail, I kind of just run through the news topics. Alexander and Run says opinion regarding Turkey and Israel relationship. Well, it's deteriorating very fast, but nobody should expect Erdogan to come to the rescue of Iran or anybody at all. If the Israelis want to take on Turkey, I think that that would be the biggest ever act of folly just

say not going to happen no going to happen yeah all right take care everybody thank you