The Duran Podcast - The stalemate lie. The big Russian offensive

Episode Date: April 6, 2025

The stalemate lie. The big Russian offensive

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine, military updates on the conflict in Ukraine. From what I understand, the Russian military continues to advance across the entire front line. Kersk has been completely cleared of Ukraine forces or is about to be completely cleared of Ukraine forces. there is a foothold in Sumi as well, which seems to be growing. And then there is the talk about a big Russian spring offensive, most likely in the south, maybe in the Kharkov direction, maybe somewhere else. There is, though, a lot of talk about some big Russian offensive that is coming. and there does appear to be a buildup of Russian forces in various directions, which I believe says a lot,

the fact that Russia can build up big forces in different parts of the front line. Your thoughts? I think that's exactly right. Now, I think that the first thing we need to address is that over the last couple of weeks, as the negotiations, as Trump has been trying to reach out to the Russians, A whole narrative that the war is again in a stalemate has been once again reactivated. You remember that this time last year, there was again the story about it being stalemate. And then throughout the spring, summer, autumn, we had an actually quite rapid Russian advance.

The Russians first captured of Dejvka, then there was a sort of pause through Lake February, early March. And then, of course, things started to move. Ocheretino fell, then other places to the west of Orcherethino, Selidovo, Kurachov, Ugledar, all began to fall one after the other. Suddenly, people were no longer talking about a stalemate. They were suddenly acknowledging that the Russians were, on the contrary, advancing and advancing quite fast. and there was a lot of dismay and worry about what that meant.

And then that continued through the winter. In January, the Russians captured more territory. They captured Velika and Novosilka. They captured, in my opinion, Torezsk. There's been various Ukrainian counterattacks of that, towards that town. But the Russians basically halt Torezsk. And then, of course, things slowed down as they always do at this time of year because there's the spring thaw and because after a year of an almost continuous offensive, the Russians needed

to reorganize, rebuild their forces, reinforce, send more troops to the front line, rest the troops who have been fighting for all this time, build up stocks of ammunition, build up stocks of missiles, deploy forces to all sorts of places. So when that happens, always, as night follows day, you get the narrative that a stalemate is in place starting to revive, start to revive. And claims, for example, that in March and February, the Russians captured less territory in Ukraine than they had in previous months. partly is because, as I said, the Russians are going through this reorganisation, but also it is because the major Russian offensive in February, March, was in Russia, in clearing Kursk region. So it's this distortion, this constant misrepresentation of the underlying realities.

Now, what one can say is that the Russians have now reached various strategic positions along the front lines. They've established a big bridgehead in Kharkiv region. They've managed to cross a river called the Osgo River, which is quite a big river, by the way. They've stationed troops south of the Russian border in Kharkov region. They've established a significant force in Tsumi region in Ukraine, which is to the north of that. They've, as you rightly said, practically cleared course, there's I think two villages left, one of the apparently entirely surrounded, and the Ukrainians are in the process of losing it. But anyway, they basically cleared Kusk.

They also are continuing a remorseless advance in the south, in southern Donetsk, in Zaporosia region, which looks to be clearly directed eventually and reaching. the river, the Nika. And wherever you look, the Russians are now very strongly positioned. So when they start the offensive again, it will be a massive blow to Ukraine. Putin said in his comments when he was in Murmansk that the time has come for the military to end it, I think that might be going a bit far. But if there is this big Russian offensive, and there are a lot of reports that Russian troops are now starting to concentrate in places like Selidovo, for example, where they could either advance towards the river or advance towards Bakrosk, that Russian troops are starting to

concentrate in the area near Slaviansk, near a town called Lehman, that they look to be positioned to capture Lehman, that they're supposed to outnumber the Ukrainians heavily in that area, that the Russians are also, as you correctly said, very, very strong in the north. One gets the sense of a Russian army that is growing in size, becoming more powerful, that has very substantial reserves behind it. There is very well located along the front lines to advance, and a Ukrainian army, by contrast, which by Ukrainians only, admission is now very tired and short of men. So it seems to me that we are probably going

to get a big offensive, most likely in late April or May, Russian offensive. That will probably, if things follow the same pattern that they followed last year, continue right through 2025, in which case by the end of 2025, we could have the Russians on the NEPA and perhaps close to Kiev again, on the outskirts of Kiev again, at which point we will have the major crisis in the war. Coalition of the Willing, what's going on with that? Zolensky, he actually gave a statement the other day and he said, well, there's going to be a meeting, right? There's going to be a meeting that's taking place in Kiev. I believe it's military officials of the UK. I'm not sure France will be there. I believe France will be there.

France will be there. Okay, France will be there. So France, the UK, these officials are going to be in Kiev, and they're going to start planning the next steps in the coalition of the willing. So Leski said that Ukraine is looking at troops on the ground, a no-fly zone, as well as patrols in the Black Sea. That's what they're going to talk about with France and the UK. Your thoughts.

And they're also talking today, by the way, and it's all over the British media, including the Financial Times, about getting NATO involved. NATO assets involved. So, I mean, this coalition of the willing can only work if there is a ceasefire, if Putin agrees to a ceasefire. And the Americans give backing to the deployment to this European force and all these European troops that enter Ukraine and are backed by NATO.

If they're backed by NATO, then that would mean, in effect, that they have some degree of backing from the United States. And that is the only way that this can work. Now, the Russians have completely ruled that out. They said they're not prepared to accept this, that they regard that as a deal breaker. And pretty much every European country that has a military that has, you know, any substance behind it, apart from Britain and France, have said, that if there is no ceasefire of the kind that Stama and Macron and Ursula and all those people are trying to force the Russians to accept, that they're not prepared to become involved.

So it entirely hinges on this American ceasefire plan. I would say the Kellogg ceasefire plan. If it doesn't happen, then it's not happening. and it will eventually fizzle out. I don't see why the Russians would agree to it. I am sure they will not agree to it. All the indications are that they've, well, they've said repeatedly that they won't agree to it. Putin is standing firm on this, and I don't think they're going to shift on this position at all. So I would regard this as an exercise, an absurd exercise. And when Zelensky talks in the way that he's doing about NATO assets in the Black Sea,

European troops, no fly zones. Well, the Russians are listening to all of this. They've already said that this coalition of the willing is basically an attempt to create an occupation force in Ukraine. That surely is going to make them even more determined to say no to this ceasefire plan. Everyone understands that. Everyone understands. Everyone. That's clear as day. Yeah, They're not fooling anybody. But if there were to be NATO assets used in this coalition of the willing, then that would mean that the U.S. is now backing Stamer and Macron. Yes.

Yes. So that would mean everything's called off as far as any negotiations or any diplomacy, right? Absolutely. Absolutely. Exactly. That is partly also the objective. I mean, what Stammer and Macron are trying to do and the Europeans are trying to do is that They either want to win the war through a ceasefire that, as I said, is really a mechanism to bring Ukraine into the NATO structures, or alternatively, to cause the negotiations to fail in a way that Russia is blamed and that leads Trump and the White House to recommit to Project Ukraine.

That is the strategy they've always been following. Now, the problem with that is that it requires both the Russians and the Americans to be stupid at the same time. I don't think they are stupid people. No one's falling for this. At least it doesn't seem like anyone's falling for this except for the Kelloggs of the world who are back in this type of place. Well, exactly. It's a neocon plan. Now, you know, even people like Georgia Maloney, who has gone along with a lot of the things that the Europeans have been doing up to now, but who is very close to Trump or wants to be and is perhaps more better informed about American thinking. She is now becoming more openly opposed to this whole. idea. She says it's wrong. I mean, she's actually coming out and straightforwardly criticizing it. Yeah, she is. All right. We will end the video there. The durand. Dotlox. We are on Rumble Odyssey,

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