The Duran Podcast - Trump wants end to project Ukraine, Zelensky panics

Episode Date: December 12, 2024

Trump wants end to project Ukraine, Zelensky panics The Duran: Episode 2086

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine with a focus on Trump's recent statements when he was in Paris at the reopening of the Notre Dame, the statements that he posted on truth social, where he talked about Ukraine, and the interview that he gave to NBC News, where he talked about Ukraine and Russia, the peace deal that he has in mind, ceasefire negotiations. The big takeaway is that Trump is now very openly stating that he wants to see an end to the conflict in Ukraine. The interesting part to this all is that, according to Trump, Zelensky, is also keen on a ceasefire in Ukraine, but publicly, Zelensky is refuting what Trump is saying. He is coming out and saying, no way, am I going to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine until I get a security guarantees. You know, I thought Zelensky had 34 security guarantees from all of the countries in Europe.

I don't know. He's talking security guarantees. Obviously, he's talking about NATO entry. Russia on the other side of things, they are, Peskov came out with a statement and said that Russia absolutely is open to a G-Spyre and talks with Trump. They're interested to hear what Trump has to say, what his proposals are. But Peskov said that the starting point for any type of negotiations is going to be what Trump said in June at the speech that he gave at the foreign ministry in Moscow. And it starts

from the foundation, from the baseline, no NATO entry for Ukraine. You have to start there. And then it builds on Istanbul. The four regions in their entirety have to be recognized as part of the Russian Federation. They go to Russia. Ukraine troops leave those four regions. And no military, no foreign military in Ukraine and looking at the overall security architecture in Europe. So, I mean, we know we've documented what Putin has said during that June speech. We've gone over it a hundred times. Istanbul, you've branded this as Istanbul plus plus, right? You had a bunch of pluses to what was agreed in Istanbul in 2022 before Boris Johnson sabotaged

that agreement. It takes the realities on the ground into consideration of, the Ukraine war, which is the reality is that Ukraine is losing. Russia is winning. Russia will win. There is no chance for Ukraine to win. And maybe we can also in this video touch upon, I think, the controversial statement from Trump, which has elicited a response from Kiev as well as Moscow, which is the casualties. Trump said 600,000 Russian casualties, and he said 400,000 Ukrainian casualties. we've gotten responses from Zelensky as well as from Peskov. Obviously, the casualties was something that warranted a response from both parties involved

in the conflict, Trump's statement on the casualties. Anyway, where do you want to begin? Do you want to talk about the casualties? Well, I could actually stop the casualties. Let's start with the chaos. Because I think we can dismiss that very quickly. I do think Trump really meant to take that this thing should be taken to literally. What he's basically saying is that an awful lot of people have died or been casualties in this war.

He referred to the war as madness, stop the madness. I mean, he's talking, you know, Trump's so often, Doug. You shouldn't take these words literally. You should look at the bigger meaning, which is that this is a terrible war. Many people have died. It's been a pointless war. It should never have happened. And the time has come to bring it to an end.

Now, it is the last point that is the key. Obviously, the Russians are saying that he's taking his figures from what the Ukrainians say. Russian losses are far lower. Ukrainian losses are exponentially greater. That's what Peskopf says. I believe that's got from this, by the way. Zelensky says the opposite. Trump has got all the losses completely wrong.

Ukrainian losses are no more than 43,000. I don't think anybody takes that seriously and I don't. But put all that aside, the big story, the big takeaway from this is that ever since the election on the 5th of November, and especially as we saw the process of Trump picking his foreign policy team, there's been massive speculation about what Trump's intentions, with respect to the war in Ukraine were. Would he actually continue where Biden was going to left off? Was he going to try to threaten the Russians and escalate the war?

Was he serious when he said during the election campaign that he wanted to end it? He wants to see it ended. Well, now I think we can see conclusively that he wants to end it. All of his statements over the last couple of hours, a couple of days, have been firmly pointing in that direction. And the brutal way in which he has been treating Zelensky shows, I think, quite clearly how dismissive and unimpressed by Zelensky he is. So a meeting which lasts all of 20 minutes, Trump repeatedly going out and saying that the Ukrainians want to ceasefire, with Zelensky constantly having to say from, you know, the sideload.

No, no, no, we don't. We want immediate NATO entry. We want firm security guarantees and all of that. And you're absolutely right. The Ukrainians have signed security guarantees, was it 38 times, were 38 states and all of them. And we said at the time that these were simply pieces of paper that didn't mean anything. And here we see even Zelensky himself effectively admitting that.

So Trump is treating Zelensky in a most humiliating and even brutal way. Basically what he's telling Zelensky is, yes, you do want to cease fire. I know you say you don't, but absolutely you do. and I absolutely want to ceasefire. I want an end to this war. And my own view about this is that Trump today, not only wants the war ended as soon as possible, but he will do whatever he takes to end it.

And if this means coming round to Putin's proposals, in other words, Istanbul double plus, Ukraine gives up the four regions and agrees to stay out permanently from, NATO and accepts perpetual neutral status. Well, Trump will say that's fine. I don't care. I don't care about what Ukraine has been doing. I'm not engaged or involved in any of this. This is all Biden's work. I want to draw a line and move on to the things that really concern me. So I think that over the last couple of days, we have seen Trump come out and show to us in the most emphatic way what he really thinks of Zelensky and of Ukraine as well.

Well, Trump did say in the NBC interview that money to Ukraine will lessen. He didn't say it's going to stop. But of course, it just could have been his way of speaking during the NBC interview. I mean, a lot of people are talking about that, though, that Trump said that the money's not going to stop, but he said the money's going to be less that goes to Ukraine. I don't know what your thoughts are about that comment that he said to NBC. But there is a lot of discussion about what if the Istanbul Plus Plus is indeed the agreement that, that they agree upon that Putin and Trump agree on, which is Istanbul plus plus. It would mean that the conflict, there is a ceasefire along the four regions. What does that mean for

Russia? Is that a win? Given everything that we've seen in Syria, what many people described, which I think is accurate as a betrayal of Russia from Turkey, for example. You had an agreement with Erdogan and with Turkey, you see Turkey, Turkey stabbed you in the back, Russia, which means that you can't really make agreements with Turkey or anybody. In the Collective West, of course, you have the case of Mitz 1 and Mints 2 as well, where Russia had agreements, and those agreements were also not fulfilled, and Russia was deceived there as well. It's the fear and the talk, which I think is correct,

especially from the Russian side of things, which is that whatever agreement we make with the West, even if it is an agreement based on Istanbul Plus Plus and what Putin said in June will never be honored. It will never be honored. And somewhere down the line, five years, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, whatever, this Ukraine and tornado thing will resurface.

What do you make of all of that discussion as well? I think there will be many, many people in Moscow, many people in the military, many people in the foreign ministry and in the security services who will be bitterly disappointed if this war ends on the basis of Istanbul plus, I'll say that straight away. If Trump comes round to backing it and an agreement is reached on that basis, then as I said, a lot of people will feel that even though this is a technical win for Russia, And I mean, it would be if you go back to the original objectives of the special military operation, I mean, this would be a win for Russia. But what would have been a win for Russia or what some people would have seen as a win for Russia in April 2022, even though an awful lot more territory has been taken since that, they would say it doesn't go anywhere close to reflecting the needs.

of the moment. Now, I think here Putin, of course, himself, he is committed to Istanbul plus plus. I think that he probably nonetheless would go for that. And I think his authority in Moscow is strong enough that he would be able to force it through. So that's where I think we could be looking at things on the Russian side. The big, the big, the big, the big, The big unanswered question is what the Ukrainians are going to say about this, because from a certain perspective, Istanbul plus plus, absolutely is what they need to agree to in order to survive. But looking at this realistically, they're going to lose the four regions if Istanbul plus plus goes ahead. the Russians in its entirety. In their entirety.

Can you explain? I think so. In their entirety. Putin has made this absolutely clear. I mean, every single millimeter of territory that represents the four regions, including the city of Zaporosia on the Dnieper River, which would bring, by the way, the Russians onto the Dnieper River and Herson City, they must become part of Russia. So I've discussed in many places how the NEPA is the essential artery of Ukraine.

Istanbul Plus Plus leaves the Russians with their positioned right on top of Ukraine's artery, you know, Zaporosia, Herson region, all of these places. So anyway, coming back to this, there's going to be many people in Ukraine who will say, look, if we agree to Istanbul plus plus, we lose the four regions. We lose the gateway that the NEPA represents. We have the Russians at the center of Ukraine itself when going to be permanently left outside NATO. And realistically, the prospects of us joining the European Union, even if the Russians still say that they don't object, which might change, by the way. Those don't look especially good. And if with Putin insisting that the rights of the Russian language in Ukraine be restored

and the rights of the canonical church be restored, we could probably find ourselves again being tugged back towards Moscow. So there will be opposition to the, this in Russia, definitely. There will be huge opposition to it in Ukraine as well. And this is what Zelensky, why Zelensky is objecting and speaking so noisily, because unless he gets NATO entry, which of course he's not going to get, it's going to be very, very difficult for him to sell this to many people in Ukraine. I would say many people in Ukraine. Most people in Ukraine probably would accept this, but the people within the political class, the army, the nationalists, the banderites, all of those people would be furious with Zelenskyy or with any Ukrainian government

that agreed to this thing. So a very unsatisfactory piece, some people in Russia would be unhappy and they would feel shortchanged. But, as I said, Putin at least, is in full control of Russia. He can deliver. The same is not so certain about Ukraine. I imagine one component for Zelensky in the negotiations is to safeguard his own future. So I imagine one of the requirements

that he's going to have of Trump is that if he does agree to whatever Trump and Putin work out, is that he gets some sort of exile. I mean, even the Spanish publication You know, Mundo actually hinted at this. Yeah. Some Zelensky exile in London. So I imagine that Zelensky understanding that whatever agreement he comes to with,

with Trump and with Putin, he's going to be a target of the Banderites, not of Russia, not of the Trump administration, though, you know, the CIA may be a different story. But he's going to try to safeguard his own well-being, his own future. So I think that actually plays quite a big role in everything that's going on. But how would, if this is indeed the position that Putin is going to take, and I think he will agree to an Istanbul plus plus, I really do believe he will agree to it, and it's going to be a controversial thing if this does actually happen, even for the Russian side of things, if he agrees to an Istanbul plus plus. But how do you get there without the denazification? I mean, Istanbul plus plus accomplishes the demilitarization. part of the special military operation. But I don't think it really addresses the denotification part. And we got to remember, the SMO had two main components to it,

demilitarization and denotification. How does Istanbul Plus Plus address that? How do you address that? You say you want to guarantee the rights of Russian speakers. How do you do that? You want to guarantee the rights of Russian culture. Do you put the monuments and the statues back up again that have been torn down and have been destroyed? How do you root out the banderite forces in the West?

I mean, it's a lot of them. This is a big part of West Ukraine, the bandera. The entire Ukraine is built. Right now, the ideology of Ukraine over the many, many years and decades. The ideology of Ukraine is an identity which is based on Bandera. and a hatred of Russia. So how do you tear all of that down? I mean, it seems, it seems very, very impossible to do. I don't know. And I have to say, I have always had this suspicion that when Putin first floated Istanbul Plus Plus and indeed signed off on Istanbul itself

back in April 2020, but certainly when he pitched Istanbul plus, us, he did so in the full expectation that the Ukrainians would reject it. Because from his point of view, from the Russian point of view, better continue the war until full victory. I think that even if the Ukrainians withdraw from the four regions, and you know, that's not certain by any means, or agree to withdraw from the four regions, I think that the Russians might still say that until the Ukrainians have indicated that they are prepared to agree to Istanbul, to all of the basic points made in Istanbul, on language rights, the Orthodox Church, the liquidation of the Banda rights, all of that kind of thing, it is impossible to agree a ceasefire. And I think

that might very well be where we end up. Now, a few days ago, Glenn Dyson and myself were talking to Russia's deputy ambassador, Dimitri Poliansky. He's ambassador at the UN. And he basically said that he actually didn't have much hope that this diplomatic process would lead anywhere very far because he didn't think that the Ukrainians would ever accept these kind of terms and would ever negotiate in a serious way. And I think he reflects, probably Poliansky reflects what I think is the deepest sentiment in Moscow. So I'm going to say this. I think that Trump wants the war to end. if you can't what he really means by that I suspect is that he wants American involvement in the wall to end he's going to reduce funding for Ukraine he's going to try to push the Ukrainians

into negotiations but I think what Putin is hoping is going to happen is that the Ukrainians will resist negotiations and will refuse to cancel their decree, forbid it prohibiting negotiations. The Russians, by the way, have always said that for any negotiations to take place, the first step, Kiev mistake, Zelensky mistake, is to cancel his September 2020 decree forbidding negotiations. Absolutely. But that may not be an easy thing for Zelensky to do, by the way.

It's going to be difficult. He has consistently resisted it. resisted it. So I think what the Russians may be, are deep down a thinking or hoping to themselves and perhaps expecting is that the Ukrainians are going to find it impossible to do these things and then Trump will follow through on the things that he's been saying. He's going to first reduce and then eventually stop Ukraine aid to Ukraine and that the Ukrainians will be left to themselves. Now, bear something else in mind of every Ukrainian soldier now knows that the president of the United States wants peace in Ukraine, or at least wants to end involvement in, U.S.

involvement in Ukraine. They no longer believe, in other words, that Ukraine has the unconditional support of the United States. And that also, by the way, is going to have an effect on the situation on the ground, it's probably going to become more and more difficult to keep Ukrainian troops motivated to continue fighting, to defending these villages like Novi Kumar, which has been fought over at this particular point in time as we're making this program, a tiny village, but a place of considerable tactical significance within the overall scheme of things, it's going to be more difficult to go on fighting and defending. in these places because Ukrainian soldiers will start saying to themselves, why?

Why should I fight to defend us, tiny village like this, when I know that there's going to be a peace deal done, although the president of the United States doesn't really support Ukraine and wants a peace deal done? So that could change the dynamic of the baffle field further, because unless the Ukrainians are able to hold these tiny villages like Norvikuma, other places will start to fall because it's only by defending these small villages and places like that, the bigger places can be defending.

So all of this is going to start to affect the dynamics of the battlefield as well. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but shoot, Telegram, Rockfin, and X. Go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video today. Take care.