The Duran Podcast - Trump-Zelensky call. Russia seeks security on west border

Episode Date: March 20, 2025

Trump-Zelensky call. Russia seeks security on west border

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the diplomacy between the United States and Russia. We also had the phone call between Trump and Zelensky. We may want to touch on that as well in this video update. But what do you think? Should we begin with the United States and Russia, the most important part of all the diplomacy that has been taking place over the last couple of weeks, including the phone call between Trump and Putin, in my opinion, is that we have bilateral talks. The United States and Russia, there's no UK.

There's no, unfortunately, for Kierstommer, there's no UK, there's no European Union, and most importantly, there is no Ukraine. There has been an admission from the Trump White House that this is the United States, Russia, a proxy war between the two. And so they're going to sit down together and try, they're going to try to find a solution to this. Anyway, what are your thoughts? Absolutely. The most important thing that's came out of that conversation between Trump and Putin is that it is going to be a direct negotiation. They're going to set up expert panels. There's going to be more than one expert panel. one expert panel is clearly going to look at the ceasefire and whether the ceasefire

extended and in what form and how and what that means there's going to be a cease there's going to be an expert panel to look at the situation in the black sea now the point here is basically it's an attempt to return to the grain deal but of course the grain deal that was negotiated back in 2022, collapsed, because the Russians said that what happened was that the Ukrainians and their Western allies took advantage of the Great Deal to try and smuggle weapons through ships into Odessa and to avoid having proper inspections. And that was why the Russians pulled out of it. They didn't actually, and contrary to what many people think, really go out to interfere with the shipping in the Black Sea, because from their point of view, they discovered

very quickly that if they did that, their allies in the global South would have been very, very angry with them because they were importing grain and food staffs from Ukraine, and they relied on Ukraine, or at least they told themselves that they relied on Ukraine for food, and they didn't want that interfered with at a time when there is high food inflation, which affects the situation in global south countries. If you remember, Putin at one point was offering free grain to various countries to try to assuage their concerns. And it didn't ultimately work. I mean, they took the grain, the free grain, but they still wanted the access, the free access of shipping from Odessa. And so the Russian.

went along with it. But now they're going to be talking about that all over again. And Peskov has said that there's going to be a special meeting set up to look into all of this. So what Peskov is suggesting is that Russia will reenter the Green Deal, but that this time it will be made to work properly. In other words, there will be proper inspections of ships. So that will take us actually again further towards the Russian position. I think this needs to be understood because the way this negotiation between the Americans and the Russians is being conducting has very, very much on the American side, the look of a very American way of conducting negotiations. And I speak from experience. I've been involved in this many times.

I've had to deal with American law firms and American companies. And I've seen often how it's done. So you have, from the Americans, this constant desire to move forward and to move forward quickly. So, you know, they tell you, we've got to sew up the deal in one week's time, two weeks time. They want, you know, meetings. They insist on telephone calls.

They want one-to-one contacts. And they also publicly and constantly spin that the negotiations are moving faster and going better than they really are, which is that you've almost agreed everything, that there's only a few details left, that we're going to get the deal sorted in a few days. The thing to understand about all of this

is it's a classic way of putting pressure because if you say, hold back, we haven't got there yet, then you will be put in the position of looking like the deal breaker. And most people who are involved in negotiations don't want to be put in that position. So this is very typical of the way in which the Americans conduct these things. But if you look at the actual substance of what the two sides are agreeing, if you, blank out, you know, the rhetoric, especially the American rhetoric, and look at the agreements. You've got agreements to set up working parties, expert groups.

One will be to look at this as the Black Sea situation and basically to tighten up the way in which this whole business of shipping in the Black Sea works. The second will be probably mechanisms to work to work. towards a ceasefire. The third will be to try to move gradually, undoubtedly. And when I say gradually, not that gradually, to move towards a framework agreement of what the final contours of the settlement should be. And I've discussed that the Americans are edging gradually and slowly to, we're not gradually, they're moving towards Istanbul plus. And I think this is again, at least, clear to me. Now, that was the Trump-Putin call. It was followed by a Zelensky Trump call. And

it's important to say it was Zelensky who called Trump. So Zelensky's kept out of the picture. He's very concerned about what happens. He telephones Trump. And again, the one concrete thing that came out of that call, which lasted an hour, is that Zelensky came away and agreed that he would participate. in this temporary seized fire on attacks against energy systems. You know, the Russians said that they won't conduct missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities. Zelensky has now agreed to do the same. So there won't be attempted Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy facilities either.

So again, the reality is, behind all the talk, all the bluster, all. the whatever, Zelensky has had to move and the Americans are still making ground with him. They're pushing him in the direction they want him to go. Zelensky came along. He asked for more Patriot missiles. Trump shrugged that off. He said, of course, well, help you find Patriot missiles. We're not giving you any.

We'll see whether we can find some for you to buy in Europe. Incredible, incredible statement. Absolutely, absolutely. In fact, it's, again, an op... It's a way of saying no, but it's very much Trump style. So Trump got... So Zelensky got nowhere getting more air defense systems. In fact, that really should ought to be an alarm bell for Zelensky, the Ukrainians,

even the Europeans, because it suggests that the Americans are indeed now moving towards a cut-off of weapon supplies to Ukraine, not immediately, but in due course. And Zelensky brought up the whole question of power stations, and he said, we need to have our power stations protected. And Trump came back with this extraordinary proposal. Well, hand us over up your power stations. to us. And then, of course, the Russians won't attack them. And it's again, it's the same story as with the mineral extractions deal. Zelensky's trying to get the Americans to commit to

protecting, to providing defense for Ukraine, for its energy infrastructure. And Trump is basically again saying, no, hand me all your power stations. And, you know, that will be enough. There won't be any attacks. And of course, that is, as many people have already pointed out, it's an unrealizable, it's an unachievable proposal, which Trump knows perfectly well. It's his way of saying to Zelensky, look, I'm your friend. I'm all for you in every way. But, you know, all these requests you're making for air defense missiles, for protections

of your energy system. Well, I'm not ultimately going to give you what you want, but of course I'm here to help you in any way that I can, which is a way of saying no. So, from Zelensky's point of view, from Ukraine's point of view, this was an unsuccessful call. And I think this is something again that people need to understand because, as I said, this is being conducted in this very artistic. of the deal, which is, you know, in some ways, by no means untypical way that Americans, American businesses conduct negotiations. By the way, they're very good at it. I mean, it works very well and is very impressive to see it in action. Of course, the Russians have a completely different negotiating style, as we saw when Putin and Trump spoke to each other.

The Russians are not going to be bounced. They're not going to be pressured in the way that, say, the Ukrainians are. And I think that it took some adjusting. The telephone call between Putin and Trump went on for quite a long time. Undoubtedly, there was a lot of towing and throwing and disagreement and perhaps even argument over the course of that call. But nonetheless, each side has an interest in keeping this process moving forward, and that is what we're going to see. Over the next couple of days, Wyckhoff said it will be on the 23rd of March, which is this weekend. Maybe again, that's the Americans trying to give the impression that things are moving forward faster than they really are. But at some point, over the next couple of days, maybe a week,

we're going to start to see more and more expert panels starting to appear and they're going to start meeting in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is clearly where the negotiations are taking place. And in the meantime, the Europeans and the Ukrainians, exactly as you said, but the Europeans especially are being completely left out of the picture. Notice, Trump has spoken to Zelensky, But he's not picked up the telephone and called Stalin. He's not picked up the telephone and called the Europeans. If it had been Obama, for example, I'm not talking about Biden, who really wasn't able to do these things. But in Obama's day, you would have had a conference call that have all come together, all the Western allies.

We're getting nothing like that from the Americans now. Yeah, the UK and the Europeans are pretending that they're not going to agree with Russia's demands for a ceasefire. They're rejecting Russia's demands for ceasefire. That's what the UK is saying. That's what the EU is saying, as if anyone asks them. They're trying to pretend that they're part of these negotiations. It's fantasy land. But the energy takeover thing that was in the readout, a lot of outlets have jumped on this

as the important part of the call between Trump and Zeletsky. Obviously, the United States is toying with Zelensky because they even talk about, not in the readout. Actually, afterwards, there were statements about the Zaporoja nuclear power plant. They believe in the readout, they don't specifically name the ZNPP. But afterwards, they said that the ZMP could be managed by the United States, taken over and run and managed by the United States, which is ridiculous because the Trump administration, everyone in the world knows that the ZMPP is controlled by Russia,

and has been from pretty much the very beginning of the conflict. So for them to even bring that up or to mention that the United States can run the ZMPP if Zelensky hands it over to the United States is fantasy. Obviously, this is, as you said, rare earth minerals part two. And it's the United States playing around with Zelensky. Yes, it's them putting pressure, which is what they're doing, and they're doing it constantly and all the time. They have a lot of means to put pressure on the Ukrainians.

They don't have the same leverage over the Russians. I mean, they still talk from time to time about sanctions, but they obviously don't want to go in the direction of sanctions against Russia because they know that sanctions are really maxed out, but the sanctions are going to create further problems. But with the Russians, they have something else, which is that the Russians generally want to know. deal. And that's the difference. That's the difference in the dynamics. The Russians want to

deal because they need a deal with the Americans to buy security on their Western borders, which is what the Russians have talked about all the time. If they can talk about security in Europe, they would love that as well. And quite plausibly, the Americans will agree to that also. So that's the meeting point between the Americans and the Russians. There's an awful lot, however, to unscramble. As for the Ukrainians, they don't basically want to deal, nor do the Europeans. They want everything to continue as it was under Biden. They want to go back to that.

And that's why the Americans are putting the pressure on the Ukrainian. all the time. So the Ukrainians say, we want you to protect our energy system. And the Americans come back and say, okay, then hand it over all to us. The Ukrainians say, we're going to exchange our mineral wealth for continued military support. And the Americans say, well, we've given you all this support already. So we should have the mineral wealth now. It's, it's, It's just constant putting pressure on the more recalcitrant and difficult side. If you've, as I said, worked with Americans, as I have done, you will know that this is not so unusual. Yeah, but it also keeps everyone distracted.

It keeps everyone kind of off balance, trying to figure out what's going on. Rare Earth mineral deals. What are they talking about? Giving up our energy infrastructure. What are these guys saying? How do we do that? How do we pull that off? How do we give them to the Zapadocia nuclear power plant?

When we don't even control the Zapadocia nuclear power plants. So, you know, everyone's talking about this. Everyone's distracted with this while the hard part, which is the two sides working on the details, the technical details of how to come to some sort of a solution in Ukraine is taking place. Exactly. And that's the boring, difficult, detailed stuff that they're going to have to have to figure out. Exactly, that they have to work through. Across a 2,000 kilometer front line, which they always mention it both sides.

Exactly. Exactly. And, you know, we're also getting reports from the Russian media, from Commerzum, that Putin has made it completely clear, apparently to the Russian industrialists of the Russian business people that the Russians are not going to settle for anything less than the entirety of the four regions. I think this is a, you know, again, people perhaps are resisting this. You see lots of talk about frozen, you know, freezing the fighting on the existing contact

line. Again, I think this is something that people do need to listen more to what. what the Russians are saying. But if we can get the process going, we will get steadily closer to that position. Because to repeat once again, every day, there are more Russian advances in the war. The Russians are continuing to push forward in all sorts of places. They push forward in Zaporosia region. There's been more information about further Russian advances there. they're pushing towards the city of Konstantinovka in Donbass. The disaster in Kuzk region continues to unfold.

Yes, the Ukrainians launch their drones against Russia. Yes, every so often a drone gets through, as it did apparently in the Engels airbase again and does some damage. But that doesn't change the dynamic of the war. And the Americans know it. When you mentioned that Russia wants to figure out security on its western border, what you're talking about in essence is not so much Ukraine. I mean, Ukraine is a part of it, but you're really talking about a new security architecture

in Europe, which is what interests Russia the most. And we've been reporting on this from even before the special military operation. And Putin was actually bringing this up, Putin and Lavrov were bringing this up with the Biden administration and with Blinken that we need to discuss a new security architecture, which takes our security interests into consideration. And they even provided documents to the Biden administration about their thoughts and their ideas for this. So, I mean, that's what you're talking about. And when you mention unscrambling some of the problems that the U.S. and Russia has, I imagine you're talking about unscrambling the problem that is Ukraine. So you have this

conflict, this war in Ukraine, which needs to be figured out. But you have a much bigger, issue for Russia, which is, I mean, Ukraine is a huge issue. But for the Putin administration, they want to figure out the overall security situation, which considers Russia's interests in Europe on the western border. I mean, that's what we're talking about here. Absolutely. And to repeat again, the Russians say it in pretty much. much every statement. I mean, they always talk about their legitimate security interests, and that is precisely what they mean. If we go back to 2021, 2022, before the special military operation began, Putin gave a big speech to the Russian foreign ministry. He said it all out

there. He said that this is our concern, that security on our Western border has been threatened because the United States and the Western powers went back on their promises that they gave to Gorbachev and Jeltsin at the end of the Cold War and expanded NATO eastwards. And they didn't just expand NATO eastwards. They went back on their further promises not to create Western military infrastructure in the countries of the former Warsaw Pact. And they went ahead and they did create that military infrastructure. They established missile bases in Romania and Poland. They brought the Baltic states into the NATO alliance. They've established military presence of troops in Poland, Romania and the Bortic states as well, and the Russians

want all that settled and all of those troops basically withdrawn. It will take time to do. But on the American side, this administration also wants to do it. We go back to what Pete Hegsa said when he went to the first Ramstein and then Munich, he said, Europeans cannot expect the Americans, the American military, to be in Europe forever. So the Americans are clearly signaling that they want, if not to quit completely, though I suspect Trump probably wouldn't be too sorry if the Americans pulled out completely from Europe, at least to reduce their first. forces in Europe significantly. And the Russians want them to do that as well. The Americans

have excellent reasons why they would want that. They feel that they're overextended. They got all kinds of problems in the Middle East, in the Far East. They worried about China. They have major issues with their own economy. They want a stabilization of the situation in Europe so that their troops can be pulled back and so that they can start a retrench. And the Russians want the same. So that is the basis for a long-term agreement. Now, obviously, the Russians know that this is Donald Trump saying this, and Pete Hegsseth and J.D. Vance, that a future administration might come along and reverse all of that. But that, from a Russian point of view, makes it even more important that they secure this agreement with Trump, if they can, because there is no guarantee that it can

ever be achieved with the future American president. And even if a future American administration goes back on this agreement, which is achieved with Trump, even if the American troops do return to Europe, if Russia is given five, ten, or even four years of relative stability on its Western borders, then it can put that to good use. Its economy is being reorganized. They're doing many things in their civil aviation, in their space programs. They've got a very ambitious program to update their semi-conductor industry, which I've read. I've read the plans that they sorted out. They're starting to build their own domestic lithography machines, all of that kind of thing. So they need, they want that time to be able to focus on those things so that if there

is going to be another round going head to head with the Americans, in four, eight, 10, 20 years time, they're ready. That is what, that is the community of interests between the, the Americans and the Russians at this time. And yes, just to repeat again, it is not the United States. opting out of being a great power or retreating into isolation or doing any of those things. It's the United States looking at its internal problems, saying to itself, we're overextended. We are doing too much, too many places around the world trying to retrench and consolidate so that it can remain a great power. These are the things to try to understand.

And this explains the panic in Europe and the panic in the EU. This is why they're going crazy about military defense budgets, why they're creating defense funds, why they're talking about militarizing the European Union, creating an EU army, all of these things because they're starting to come to the understanding that the U.S. might, we're not saying it will, but it might start to significantly decrease its presence in Europe. So they're looking ahead and they're saying, we need to keep the pressure on Russia. We need to keep the tension on Russia. How do we do this?

Because this is all they know. Exactly. The Europeans don't know what it means to coexist peacefully with Russia. So they're looking at a way to keep the tension going. Exactly. But of course, you can also see that there is now crumbling. at the edges because there's this enormous drive to militarization, but it's already beginning to run into opposition.

Italy is beginning to walk out of it. Sentiment in wider public sentiment in Italy has turned strongly against the war. They basically don't want to see Italian troops sent to Ukraine under any circumstances. Maloney apparently has made that very, well, she hasn't apparently. has made that publicly very clear now. So if there is a process of U.S. Russian, rapprochement, we're going to see countries like Italy, probably in time Spain, the southern European states, ultimately I suspect, despite all that Macron is doing France, they'll start to readjust their foreign policies and they will start to move towards some kind of detente with the Russians

as well. But that's for the future. Today, we're all in the grip of hysteria and talking militarization and piling on more debt on top of the enormous mountain of debt we already have and creating an even bigger crisis for ourselves. But that's not the topic we're going to discuss in this program. But you're absolutely right. It is the sense that the Americans are leaving that is creating the planet. I'll get to say something else, by the way. The other There are lots of deep underlying causes to this panic. One of the causes of the panic is a certain psychological fear that the Americans go and the Europeans can't get their act together in security terms, which they won't, by the way.

Suddenly, it's going to be revealed to the people of Europe that this threat from Russia that we've been hearing about all our lives, going all the way back, to be able to be. before the Second World War doesn't exist and never existed. And that is going to be very difficult, but many, many people in Europe, particularly in the political class, to come to terms with. So there is this worry as well. Yeah, that is why Urbana and Fritzow are talking about doing business with Russia. No.

They're already coming out with statements saying we want to do business with Russia. We want to get back in Russia and invest in Russia. We want Russia to invest in us. Because they understand that this is just a fiction, this whole, you know, if we don't have the United States, then Russia's going to come after us. And they're going to occupy us and recreate the Soviet Union, whatever they tell themselves. But, yeah, I agree with you on that, 100%. Is this – and I actually just want to make one more point, which you've made often, even if Russia were to go, say, to the – all the way to the Polish border. Yeah.

Let's say we can't get a peace deal and the war continues and Russia makes it all the way to the border with Poland. That doesn't solve Russia's problem. No. It may actually make it worse in a sense. Yes. Now, I mean, again, it's important to make this very clear. If there isn't a deal done about Ukraine, if there cannot be a deal sorted out between

the Americans and the Russians, and that is a very real possibility, then the Russia. have the means and the capability and the will to see this thing through, and they will go all the way to the Polish border. But it's not going to resolve their underlying security problem. It's not going to be good for the United States because it's then got the Russian army on Europe's borders. It's got to try to come to terms with the fact that Russia has won a massive military victory in Eastern Europe, it's going to create enormous tensions between the United States and Russia, and it's probably going to lead to further demands, not just that the Americans stay in Europe, but that they increase the level of their forces there, which is,

of course, exactly what they don't want to do. And for the Russians, it's exactly the same. They will get to the Polish border, but they will find. that the Americans are still there in Europe. The Americans are reinforcing. That will also force the Russians to reinforce their forces along the Polish border. We will have, in other words, a return to a kind of Cold War situation with the front line moved a little further to the east. Coming from a Russian point in you, it is a little further to the east because they're such an enormous country. Neither superpower wants that. That's not the outcome that either superpower wants, but if the Russians cannot get a deal that satisfies them, they will go to the Polish border.

They made that absolutely clear many, many times, because on their point of view, securing their border is essential if that can be done by a green. with the Americans. That's optimal. But if it has to be done by defeating the West in Ukraine and by retaking control of all Ukraine, then so be it. Yeah, I mean, you know, Putin has said that he's not so keen on Lviv and the West of Ukraine. I mean, you know, for Russia, I think it's very possible to see Odessa and perhaps getting to Transnistria. But if you go by the statements of the Putin administration, they're not so hot on the idea of the West of Ukraine, of that whole Lviv area. Yeah.

Yeah. Yeah. Needs are just that the people that are unfriendly, which they are, by the way. But it brings Russia again into a area of Europe, which is enormously contentious. It all but guarantees permanent hostility from Poland and Romania and countries like that. And it also brings the United States decisively back in the picture, which is pretty much. which is precisely what the Russians don't want. But that doesn't mean, as I said, that if pressed, they won't do it.

If they can't do a deal, then they will go all the way. If it had been Kamala Harris who'd won the election in November, probably they would have gone all the way. Yeah. So a final question is, if there is a deal, is this the Trump administration's way of getting out of project? Ukraine, say the bilateral talks result in a deal with regards to the confident Ukraine. You have a lot of other stuff going on, the normalization of relations, but they actually knock out a deal in Ukraine that they're both happy with. Yes.

Can the Trump administration say, we've wrapped it up, we're done, we're out of procheed Ukraine, even if, even if the UK? France, Zelensky, I don't know, whatever. The bandarite forces, even if they start something up again with Russia, even if they don't honor some future agreement, whatever it may be, they find a way to continue the conflict with Russia. Can the United States say, look, we got our deal, we're out? You guys didn't respect the deal.

You didn't enforce the deal, whatever. Like a Minsk, you didn't enforce it. You know, we're done with this. You're on your own. That is exactly what they wanted to. I mean, provided that they can get a deal, which is acceptable to them, and which satisfies American concerns, and which gets the relationship with Russia up and running again, ultimately, if Zelensky rejects it, and if the Ukrainians reject it, and it is the Ukrainians,

I mean, the Europeans can do a lot of noise, make a lot of noise from the sidelines. But as you absolutely rightly said, they're not really involved. Nobody's talking to them. None of the major parties, the Russians and the Americans, are talking to them about this. But if a deal is done, if the Americans and the Russians come to an understanding and agreement with each other and the Ukrainians rejected, that's their problem from that point on. If the Ukrainians want to reject it and go on fighting by themselves with whatever. Dribbles have helped, Stama and Macron can send them and, you know, Friedrich Meitz. Well, you know, it no longer concerns the United States. They can go ahead, make their deal with the Russians, pull their troops out of Europe, deal with all the other things that they need to do. All right. We will end the video there.

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