The Duran Podcast - Trump's Economic Siege on Iran, China and BRICS Stand in the Way

Episode Date: August 21, 2026

Trump's Economic Siege on Iran, China and BRICS Stand in the Way

Arad Alexander, we have D-Day for Iran, as announced by U.S. President Trump. It is going to be an economic D-Day War of Attrition. We've been talking about this in multiple videos going back six, six, nine months ago, where we highlighted how eventually the conflict with Iran will result in a type of waiting game between both of the countries who can outlast. the other and the United States will look to to strangle the Iranian economy. You've pointed out that Iran must absolutely now focus on their economic partnerships, specifically with Bricks, specifically with Russia and more importantly with China. The more analysis that I'm reading about Trump's plan to wage this economic war of attrition against Iran, much of it does hinge

on China. Sure, Trump and the United States will be able to get smaller countries to go along with his economic D-Day plan against Iran, but the big powers, the powers that matter for the Iranian economy are going to prove very difficult for the Trump administration to go after, to coerce, to convince, to stop supporting Iran. And if he can't get those big powers on board like China to cut off Iran. This could be a very, very long waiting game. It could last years. Absolutely.

Now, I think the thing to say here is that as they stand at this particular moment in time, the United States cannot by itself crush the Iranian economy. it does need to draw in outside players. It does need cooperation definitely from China, arguably to some extent, from Russia too. But it would be incredibly unwise for the Iranians to be complacent about this, to assume that China, which increasingly holds the decisive. cards in this game is always going to play them on Iran's side. Because the Chinese have their own interests. They want an uninterrupted flow of oil from the Strait of Hulmoos. They have good relations

with Saudi Arabia. They have no particular interests in some of the wider geopolitical plays that the Iranians are involving themselves in. And some of the commentary that I've seen from Iran about Iran using this crisis in order to become itself a great power is, I think, extremely misconceived and is not going to go down at all well in Beijing or in Moscow.

They may say to the Iranians, look, we're prepared to help you to resist an American and Israel, Israeli aggression because that's how we perceive it. But we're certainly not here in order to make you a great power like ourselves. That's not something that you can expect us to make sacrifices for so that you can become strong. So again, it brings us back to that question, that issue that we have discussed in many, many programs. it depends ultimately on Iran itself.

Iran does have a certain amount of goodwill in both Beijing in Moscow. It has successfully withstood an American and Israeli attack. The Chinese know perfectly well that one of the objectives of that attack was for the the United States to interrupt energy flows from the Persian Gulf to China. And the Chinese, for that reason, that predisposes them to be more sympathetic to Iran. But if Iran doesn't work with the Chinese and with the Russians, but especially the Russians, but especially with the Chinese, if it distance itself from China, as to some extent economically it has been doing, then it risks making possible this economic siege policy that the Americans have

by itself. In other words, if Iran doesn't look to China for economic aid, then in effect it is helping the Americans, because the Americans then are in effect blockading Iran. And even if they don't have the Chinese fully on site, Iran keeping its distance from China is achieving the same result. Now, the thing that concerns me is that Instead of the Iranians seriously confronting this and sending their people, their own people, to China, remember, Xi Jinping is due to visit the United States in September. So, you know, he's having quite a lot of interactions with the Americans at the moment. The Americans are talking to China, an awful lot.

Instead of the Iranians doing the same, or arguably much more, as they should, be doing. The Iranians instead are talking about doing all sorts of other things, like conducting strikes against NATO bases in Europe, accelerating, intensifying the war in the Persian Gulf and in the Middle East, going on some kind of offensive, striking at Saudi economic assets and economic assets of other Persian Gulf. States. That is not going to work, in my opinion, in their long-term advantage, to their long-term advantage. Yes, it will, in the short term, deepen the gathering economic crisis in the West, but it is not going to knock out the United States. The United States will come out of that crisis,

eventually. And then it will come for Iran. And Iran is not in a position to withstand a prolonged economic siege without the active support of its friends of China and Russia. Yeah, I completely agree with you. If Iran does go on the offensive in a couple of weeks, which they claim they will do, unless the Trump administration accepts their terms. What it will do is cause a lot of economic pain, mostly for the United States' vassal countries, the countries in the Gulf and the Europeans. And it may end up causing problems for the Republicans

and for Trump as they head into the midterms. It may be humiliating for the Trump administration and for the Republicans as they head into the midterms to see Iran go on the offensive, but medium to long term, it's not going to win over the Chinese or the Russians. And the key country in all of this is China, to a lesser degree, Russia. It's bricks, but mostly China. What can the United States do to get China to get China to to go against Iran? Is that even possible? Xi Jinping in the United States on September, I believe, 23rd. No doubt that the top,

the top item on the agenda for the Trump administration will be to try and convince China to go along with Trump's Iran plans. I don't think it's possible. I think it is inconceivable that the Chinese will act, actively support a U.S. blockade, publicly and actively support a U.S. blockade of Iran. But the question is not what the Chinese will do against its Iran. It's more a question of what China is not doing for Iran. Iran has, for example, very high inflation at the moment. I mean, the conflict has increased the inflationary pressures in Iran considerably.

I believe inflation is now running at something like 90% per year, which is devastating for the Iranian middle classes and is going to, in the long term, antagonize them. And of course, it isn't good for, you know, working class people, people. It's all good for anybody in the end. A very small number of very rich people get very much richer during inflation, a lot of intense inflation episodes. But history repeatedly shows that these things are economically and politically deeply destabilizing. Now, China could stay.

European and solve that inflation? I mean, China can do that. Now, I think this is a thing that people don't understand. Resolving inflation problems, supporting currencies, is not massively, well, it's complicated. But if you have the resources to do it, it can be done and it can be done quite cheaply. the person who's written all the textbooks on this and can provide, you know, first book and chapter on it is our good friend, Professor Jeffrey Sachs, who has done this in many places. China can resolve this problem that Iran has with inflation, which has been a problem that Iran has contended with

for a very, very long time, but which potentially is now getting very, very bad. And of course, if it spirals into outright hyperinflation will be an absolute catastrophe. So China can help with that. If you stabilize the internal city economy, you stabilize by basically reducing inflation, bringing inflation down to single figures or something of that kind, then the economy will start to grow. It's got ample resources. It's got an educated population.

If it's got stable export markets, it's got a large, potentially a large internal market, then you will get sustained economic growth. And if you do all of that and at the same time, you're working with your BRICS partners to strengthen your defenses, then you're in a much better position than you would be. if you instead launched, or so it seems to me, on extremely dangerous plans of long-term strikes and offensives across the Middle East, which can only result in a prolonged conflict with the United States,

in which America's economic advantages are bound over time to work against Iran. Of course, you can say, you know, there's problems in the United States too. Bond prices are higher. Are you really going to, though, risk the entire future of your country of Iran on assumptions that there's going to be a major existential economic crisis in the United States? Maybe there will be such a crisis. But I don't think that it's any responsible Iranian government should be thinking in that way. I think the messaging from Trump is that he's ready to absorb the economic pain. That's going to come to the United States.

At least that's what he's trying to sell the American people on. You listen to what he's saying and his messaging is, look, gas prices are going to go up, but it's no big deal. It's worth it. It's worth gas prices going up in order for Iran not to get a nuclear weapon. That's what he's saying. Absolutely. That is what he's going with. That's his message to the American people.

I think the American people are going to tell them to shove it, right? I don't think they're going to buy that at all. But that's the messaging that he's trying to put out there. It's okay if gas prices go up. It's worth the sacrifice so that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon. But my final question is, can Trump, the Trump administration, play this long game? Do they have it in them to play this long game? I mean, Trump changes positions on a daily, if not hourly basis, right?

He'll post one thing on truth social, and then in the afternoon, he'll change his entire position. And can the U.S. vassals, especially the Europeans, can they absorb long-term the economic pain on behalf of the United States in order to insulate the United States? Can they last in this long economic siege? Right. Well, I think if we talk about the United States, we must we must. Separate two things. One is the Trump administration and the person of Donald Trump himself. And the other is the permanent government of the United States, the deep state, if you like. The deep state has been working for a war and a reckoning against Iran for years, for decades. They've got it now. They've actually got the United States in a confrontation with,

Iran. They are not subject to elections in the same way that Donald Trump or other politicians have been or are subject to elections. And as we see, when it comes to US foreign policy, it is the deep state, the permanent government, that ultimately decides it. If the deep state, the permanent government of the United States, takes, makes a decision that Iran, must be brought down, then absolutely I think they do have the internal stability and coherence to pursue a long-term policy of siege against Iran. They did it in Syria. I don't see why they can't do it in Iran. And I think we need to be absolutely realistic about that, even if we get a different president in 2008, a president who's a skeptic about all of this, like J.D. V's a president.

Vance is said to be, well, we know that the deep state has a way of continuing its policies, even if the elected politicians disagree with it. So I think that, yes, the United States probably does have the resilience to keep going, or at least the institutional resilience to keep growing. Of course, if there is a big economic financial crisis in the United States, then it's a different story. But again, Iran should not count on. an eventuality like that. It would be a mistake, in my opinion, and a huge mistake to do so.

Now, about the vassals, about Japan, the Europeans first and foremost, I think the calculation in America is that yes, they can and yes, they will. Even if Europe goes through a very difficult, long-term period, it will still remain ultimately tied to the United States.

The alliance is so strong that it won't break, and the political class in Europe is so strong, they're strongly in control that they won't lose control either. So, again, that may be a wrong calculation. But again, I don't think an Iranian government should count on a political crisis in Europe leading to a collapse of this policy. The Rouhani government,

which agreed the 2015, JCPOA, relied on Europe to enforce it. They thought that the Europeans would be willing, would be able to keep the Americans in line And the Rouhani government, by the way, also precisely because it was oriented towards Europe, did not move forward purposefully in developing economic and political links with China and Russia. Well, we see what came of that.

Relying on Europe didn't work at all. Yeah, agreed. All right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We're on Xron Rumble. We're on telegram. Go to Durandshop, pick up some merch. we are also on Substack.

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