The Duran Podcast - Turkey-Syria talks may unlock new trade corridors

Episode Date: July 11, 2024

Turkey-Syria talks may unlock new trade corridors

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Erdogan and Syria and possibly some negotiations between Syria and Turkey. Every three to six months, we kind of revisit this topic of Syria and specifically Turkey. in talks with with Syria. And we might just finally be getting to that point where Turkey and Syria do sit down and resolve what has been a very difficult 10, 15 years between the two countries. And the resolution between Erdogan and Assad between Turkey and Syria could mean that the U.S. presence in the U.S. presence

in Syria would be forced to coming to an end? What are your thoughts about? Absolutely. Now, what I think has changed is this, and I think the reason why we might be close to a breakthrough is this. Erdogan has been trying to get a summit meeting with Assad for a very long time. And it's important to say that it's Erdogan who's been wanting it. It's Assad who has been resisting this.

And the reason Assad has been resisting it is because he wants the Turks to commit to withdrawing completely from Syria. And Erdogan has sort of come round to accepting that that is what must happen, that, you know, Turkish troops must withdraw from Italy, region, those sort of places. But at the same time, he, he, he, he, he. He doesn't want to seem like he's been pushed into doing it by Assad. Now, Erdogan understands, and it's Erdogan, as I said, who wants this summit meeting, who wants to resolve these issues. Erdogan now understands that something has to give.

Instead of trying to extend proposals to Syria bilaterally, he's now asked the Russians for help. And of course the Russians do have great influence in Syria. And I think the Russians will tell Assad, look, the time has come. You've got Erdogan, basically where you want him. You can see that, by the way, from the way in which Erdogan is now talking about Assad, he's talking about how once upon a time he and Assad used to meet the friendly relations between their families and their countries and the importance of getting back to that position.

I mean, that's a pretty extreme rowback from Erdogan if you remember the kind of things that he used to say about Assad and the lengths he went to try to overthrow Assad. So it's a pretty big shift. So the Russians will say, look, Erdogan is.

clearly, you know, very contripe. You need to do this with Erdogan whilst he's still there, because you never know what the next Turkish leader might want to do. So there's that reason. But also, there are a lot of pressures on you as well. The American sanctions have been very tough. the and that's affected your political popularity within Syria. You obviously control most of Syrian territory,

but you need to get the Americans out. In order to get the Americans out, you need the Turks to help you. If you agree to meet Erdogan, now the Turkish troops will withdraw and you will basically come out the winner of the war. You'll be able to get the Americans out because it's not just Turkey that is now signaling

that it wants to come on board. What we're negotiating is a bigger summit meeting in which Turkey and Syria will be present. We, Russia will be there also. Iran, of course, will also be there. But importantly, Iraq will be there too. And the Iraqis are an important player because in order to get to Syria to eastern Syria where the Americans are, they have to go via Iraq. So if the Iraqis also say this territory should be returned to the authority of the Syrian government, then the Americans in eastern Syria are isolated.

So you played your cards. This is what the Russians are going to say to Assad. You played your cards with great skill. Now is the moment to pull it all in. Now that you won the game, you take the winnings, and you finish the game and you make up. And I think Assad will listen. Yeah, I wonder how much of a factor the new Iranian president plays in all of this because, from what I understand, he's, he's,

He's very much in favor of very close relations with Turkey, Iran, and Turkey. The new Iranian president. So it does seem like everything is coming together in the region so that Syria can move to becoming whole. The U.S. is moved out of this base. And you're going to have some, I mean, balance harmony in the region. I mean, Iran, Turkey, Syria. Syria, Iraq. I don't know. Is that a right word to use? I think you're absolutely right. And I think the new Iranian president is absolutely a factor in this. He is partly from

Azerbaijan. And apparently he speaks Turkish. And he's been a very strong advocate for a very long time for a close relationship between Turkey and Iran. Now, a lot of people have, you know, seized on a couple of statements he's variously made about how, you know, Iran ought to aim for better relations with the United States. Many Iranian officials have said that. This is actually boilerplate stuff coming from a certain type of Iranian politician. Much more energy. He's shown much more energy in the past in seeking close relations with Turkey. And he's already been giving interviews, by the way, to the Russian media, in which he says, look, absolutely, the priority will be now that we're members of the Bricks to develop that and to forge even

closer relations with you and with the Saudis and with everybody else. So absolutely, he's a friend and a powerful friend that Turkey now has in Tehran. So the other one, you know, if he puts his pride to one side, which he has done, actually, on the Syrian issue. He actually comes out in quite a strong position. Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Russia. It's a harmonious team. And MBS sent a very, very friendly message to the new Iranian president. following his election.

And he's clearly indicating, too, on behalf of the Saudis, that the Saudis also want this war in Syria to be brought to an end and for the Americans to go. Yeah, it's a huge change of position for Turkey, for Saudi Arabia, when it comes to Syria. But the interesting part about this is the conflict in Syria, much of it was because of the United States wanting to get some sort of gas pipeline or trade moving through Syria.

And they wanted to remove Assad so they can remove Assad, remove Russia, so that they can then get their trade moving through Syria and into Europe. Now it looks like you're going to have the reverse situation because this harmonious conglomeration of leaders and countries that's developing in the region is also going to lead the way to the trade, the north-south corridors and the trade. trade coming from Russia downward. Instead of it going upwards into Europe, it now looks like we're going to go from top to bottom.

I mean, everything's kind of flipped. And the trade, this north-south trade corridors that are being planned and being built, this is a huge deal. It's a huge deal. And of course, Syria could be a linchpin in it. This is what, again, the Russians will be telling to Assad. What you need to do is to get the Americans out so that, that, you know, Chinese investment and our investments and Saudi investment can start to flow back

into Syria again, resolving your economic problems and basically ending them. And in order to get the Americans out, you need Erdogan's help. If you sort things out with Erdogan and with the Iraqis, and this is a good moment to do it with, you know, Erdogan looking for an end to this problem, Iran with a pro-Turkish president. It's a good moment to do it. We can move forward, sort out all of these problems. You stabilize the situation. You come out the absolute winner in the Syrian war.

All right. We will end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey, pitch, you telegram, rock fin, and TwitterX. And go to the Duran shop. Pick up some limited edition. Merch. The links are in the description box down below.

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