The Duran Podcast - Ukraine AI drones, new wonder weapon plan

Episode Date: July 16, 2024

Ukraine AI drones, new wonder weapon plan

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine. And let's start with the situation on the front lines. What is going on in the conflict in Ukraine? Well, the situation continues to be what it has been since October, which is that the Russians have the initiative, that they're gaining more ground, and Ukraine is taking more and more losses. Now, saying it in that way,

might imply that, you know, we're getting more of the same. But that doesn't give a sense of the fact that the quality, if you like, of the news is changing. Firstly, Ukrainian losses are spiking. According to the Russian Defence Ministry, and I think this is probably a fairly reliable guesstimate of Ukrainian losses, Ukraine lost 55,000 men killed. and wounded last month in June, which is a record. And I think that's probably true. The Ukrainian army is apparently becoming increasingly demoralized. We're getting more and more reports about statements from Ukrainian military commanders and soldiers talking in that way,

that they are increasingly understanding that Ukraine cannot win the war. and that they're starting to lose hope and belief in the cause that they are fighting for, and that is causing Ukrainian troops to withdraw in various places and to refuse orders to attack. And the Russians are continuing to get stronger. And over the last week or so, since I think we did our last update, you could see this, on the front lines. So if we go to Kharkov region, the Russians have now broken through decisively in the northern, in the city in Kharkov, in Volchansk. There was a lot of fighting around the aggregate plant and high-rise buildings and all of those things we've been hearing

a lot about that for many weeks. And then suddenly we learned that all of these places are falling under Russian control and that the Russians have expanded their area dramatically, an area of control dramatically. In Volchansk, that they crossed the river there, that they've occupied more areas of central Volchansk, it looks as if the entire Ukrainian position in Volchansk is collapsing. The same story south of Kupiansk, which is another area within Kharkov region, which has been fought over for much longer, the Russians suddenly catching more positions closer to the two key rivers in this area, the Jerebets River and the Osco River. There's suddenly been a dramatic fall, weakening of Ukrainian positions there, reports that the Russians are about to launch a major

offensive to finally capture Chassevier, the micro-districts, east of the canal, the aqueduct suddenly captured by the Russians. The Russians looking like they're preparing now to finish the battle for Chassev-Yar. And then further south still, this important urban conurbation based around this town called Toretsk, supposedly one of the most heavily fortified positions on the front lines that the Ukrainians held. The Russians attack, launch an attack there at the beginning of June. Nobody really takes this attack seriously. People say Torexk far too heavily fortified for the Russians to break in.

And suddenly, the Russians are deep inside Torezsk. the Ukrainians unable, apparently, to push them back or to defend, because they don't have enough troops, because the troops they have aren't sufficiently trained, because there's a lack of motivation that men aren't prepared to fight and die anymore in the way that they did previously because they no longer believe that the cause they're fighting for is going to succeed. and then perhaps the most decisive area of the fighting of all, the area around Avdavka or Cheratino, village after village, rapidly falling under Russian control, almost unopposed Ukrainian troops retreating in the face of Russian advances, and the Russians now almost reaching the key supply cities, the cities where the logistical supplies are,

Pakrovsk, Selidovo, Kourajov, cities that Ukraine simply cannot afford to lose, but apparently cannot defend either. So over the last couple of weeks, a deteriorating situation has suddenly become much worse. it's deteriorating much faster than I think people who are outside the war or who are not following it as closely as we are, understand. And the Ukrainian air defense systems seems they've collapsed. Russian missiles are able to hit targets in Kiev without being shot down in broad daylight, it would seem.

the Russians able to target airfields across Ukraine, destroying seven aircraft at one shot, basically. Again, no sign of Ukrainian air defense systems operating. And Zelensky himself becoming increasingly desperate. He wants more and more of F-16s. He's begging the Americans for permission to launch deep strikes inside Russia. He's asking the polls to shoot down Russian missiles. for him. And in every case, he's been told no, no and no. No to deep strikes inside Russia, no to M or F-16s, no to the Poles shooting down Russian missiles. The West, I'm able to help,

basically, in a situation, as I said, which is going from bad to worse. right it seems like the the narrative now for for ukraine victory to call it a victory is for ukraine to hold on for another year year and a half to prevent russia from from advancing and any further and that will be enough time to give Ukraine so that they can they can catch up with Russia in terms of military production, in terms of artillery production, or enough time to give Ukraine so that they can gain an advantage in weapons and weapons technology and AI and drones and stuff like that. What do you think of this narrative of hold on, give it another year, year and a half, stop the Russians from advancing.

And eventually the collective West military production will kick in. The collective West's superior tech and innovation and entrepreneurship will kick in. And then we'll be able to finally push Russia back. You know, it's a repetition of the kind of rhetoric that existed in Germany during the latest stages of the Second World War. You know, the Germans were going to achieve this great. industrial and technological miracle, they were going to come up with all of these wonder weapons

and that this will somehow change the tide. And of course it didn't work for the Germans. And it's not going to work for the Ukrainians either. Let's deal, first of all, with the production numbers because we've now had some very interesting information from, of all places, Radio Liberty, Radio Free Europe. And it confirms that the Europeans have been lying about their production of ammunition.

We were told that shell production is on a rising trajectory in Europe, that by the end of this year, the European Union would be producing 1.7 million shells a year, and it turns out that the true number is about a third of that. And that's coming from industry sources who are actually close to the actual production numbers, and it corresponds with what we know on the ground. The United States, I think its artillery production levels are probably going to hit around 700,000. they say a year, they say by the end of 2025, this is all dependent on a new factory there coming fully on stream within a year, which I can tell you, as somebody who has industrial experience, is extremely ambitious.

I would have thought they might be able to hit that rate of production in perhaps two or three years, not enough for Ukraine. And I think in Europe, I think they've reached the limit. I think 600,000 is probably all that they can produce. And I don't think they can improve on that. I don't think more investments are going to make for any difference there. And, you know, tanks, aircraft, missiles, all of that. It's been tried. It hasn't worked. The Russians are outproducing the West in all of the world. of these categories. And I think the West knows it. And I don't think they're able to counter the Russians on this. So if we're talking about output figures, the Russians have won the production war.

I mean, they've won it conclusively. And my own sense is the gap is growing, actually. I think the Russians not only are outproducing the West, they are outproducing the West by an ever bigger margin in terms of weapons production. So we, we, are left with the new big plan that there's going to be just one note on what you said and russia also has china production well yeah if needed if needed if needed which is going to you know which is of course on a completely different scale again i mean the chinese that produce all of the what the west does and the russians do and probably they wouldn't even catch their breath because their manufacturing now is on such a colossal scale that if they enter the picture, I mean, it's not just game

over, it's game over probably within a few weeks. But anyway, let's now turn to the new great hope, which is that in a year's time, we're going to get these swarms, these vast swarms of AI drones that the West is going to come up with, with all this new AI technology, and that they're going to flood the skies, they're going to sweep the skies across Ukraine. They're going to deal massive damage upon the Russians. It will stop the Russians in their tracks. The Russians supposedly have no capabilities in AI technology to match those of the West. And this will be the decisive victory that will change completely the balance of the war.

And it's acknowledged that it will take. that it will take at least a year before that happens. Well, a number of things to say about this. Firstly, this all sounds magical. I mean, to me, this is entirely magical. It's based on assumptions that you can produce these fleets of drones and developed and perfect the technology, which you would have to do very fast,

and have it already and operating successfully. on the battlefronts within a year's time, which I think, again, in industrial terms, is a very tall order indeed. If you have a fully mobilised economy, centrally planned economy at war, you might be able to do that. You know, assign the engineers, assign the scientists,

get them working flat out 24-7, you know, doing all this kind of, 24-7, every day without rest, you might be able to do it. I don't think this is how things happen in the West at the moment. They're probably happening like that in Russia. They're not happening like that in the West. So there is already an industrial problem there. Secondly, I suspect the technological challenges are greater than the advocates of this plan,

I mean, this is very much abstract thinking about how AI drones would work. And I don't think that it's something that has really been worked out fully or properly. It would need to be battle tested. There'd be all kinds of things that need to be done before we got to that point. The fundamental problem with this whole plan, the reason why it will fail is that it will, it assumes that the Russians are going to do nothing to counter these AI drones. And of course, what is happening, yet again, just as happened with last year's summer 2023 offensive, is that the Russians are being given a whole year to prepare for this.

They've been told that this is coming. So they are going to be working. And they've got lots of engineers. They produce as many engineers in any one year as the United States does. They've got lots of engineers. They've got Chinese technical backing behind them. The Chinese are by far the biggest producers of drones. The West doesn't match Chinese production levels in drones.

Apparently they depend a lot on Chinese supply chains for their own drone technology. I'm not going to go into the details of this. But anyway, the Russians know all about this, and they are going to be preparing. They're developing their own drones, their own AI drones. their own AI drones, they are also going to be hardening their equipment to absorb attacks by drones better. It's important always to remember that drones can, by definition, only carry a small amount of explosives. So, you know, tanks and armored vehicles and those kind of things are. actually already fairly well protected against drones.

You can, and the Russians are going to do even more, you know, to protect them even further. And they're going to find anyway methods to counter AI drones. However autonomous AI drones supposedly are, you can do all kinds of things to confuse them, to spoof them. you can probably develop all kinds of methods to counter them with heavy calibre machine guns, simple radars that can track them, all of that sort of thing. So it's not going to work because it assumes that the other side is going to be standing still, waiting for you to come and waiting for you to launch all of these weapons and will do absolutely nothing to prepare for it before you come.

Remember, the Russians were given warning of Ukraine's 2023 summer offensive, and they responded to it by building the Surovician line, these huge fortified lines. And the Russians are now being given a whole year to prepare for this technological wheeze of the fleets of drones, and they're going to use that year. to prepare for it too. They know about AI technology. They have it themselves. They've got their friends in China working on it. They'll be able to counter this. It's not going to change the war in the way that people think. And that's always assuming, of course, that in a year's time, there's a Ukraine left

still fighting. They always make that mistake. They always think the other side does nothing. They always, they always make that mistake. They're not going to do anything. They're just sitting waiting. Yes. It's weird. It's very weird that they always make these assumptions. It's very typical. Can I just say it's very, very typical of people who think of things in the abstract, which is what all of these people who are talking in this way are doing. In fact, the best way that military technology is developed during wars is through constant adaption on the battlefield, You see what the other side is doing and you immediately respond to it and you upgrade it and you improve it and you do that all the time. If people sit back in the abstract and come up with plans that are intellectually driven rather than mission driven, then of course you're going to fall into precisely these sort of traps. Yeah. What do you make of Sirsky's position to wrap up the video?

Is he staying or is he going? I think probably he is going to go eventually because Zelensky needs to blame someone for the fact that the war isn't going well. But the difficulty Zelensky has is that even if Siersky goes, one, it isn't going to solve the problem. and two, I get in the sense that the military, the soldiers on the front lines who, to be clear, do not like Sirski. They never wanted him as their supreme commander. But I get the sense that they're becoming increasingly angry with Zelensky himself. I mean, one unit, the Azov Brigade, is now openly threatening Zelensky again. They're saying, you know, that he's, you know, if he doesn't do as he's told, basically, they're

they're going to come after him. So if Zelensky does get rid of Circe, or rather, I should correct that, when Zelensky does eventually get rid of Circeki, more likely than not, it's going to weaken the entire political command system even further in a way that will undermine Zelensky's position as well.

There's already more and more rumours, by the way, that the Western powers, the Americans in particular, are looking for alternatives, not to Sierisky, but to Zelensky himself. Yeah, from Russian intel, those rumors. Yeah. No. Okay, we will end the video there. The durand.com.

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