The Duran Podcast - Ukraine Debacle & US Escalation Options: Black Sea, Tomahawks, Taurus

Episode Date: September 23, 2026

Ukraine Debacle & US Escalation Options: Black Sea, Tomahawks, Taurus

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what's happening in Project Ukraine. Let's talk about the military developments that are taking place. I think we have a lot to get to, including O'Rejov, Dobropilia, Leman. Looks like Leman is not going as well as Bileski and the Ukrainians were making it out to be. No. But you'll fill us in. What's the situation on the front lies? Right.

Well, let's first of all begin with what the Ukrainians are. doing because we've just had the single biggest drone strike that the Ukrainians have ever launched against Russia over the course of the war. Up to 2,000 drones in total on Russia's election day focused mostly on the city of Moscow. Now, there was a study done about six weeks ago, two months ago, which said that the air defences around Moscow are now so dense

that Ukraine would need to launch around 1,500 drones to get a single drone breaking through the defenses and reaching central Moscow. Well, they used 2000.

A few more drones did get through. None, by the way, to the center of Moscow. They attacked a warehouse. They again attacked the Moscow refinery, which from their point of view is useful because you get lots of fire and lots of smoke. And the journalists in the West see all of this and they get very excited about it. But if you think about this, an enormous expenditure of drones, of missiles, because they say that they use their first ballistic missile against Russia.

Only there are some reports that it wasn't actually a ballistic missile at all, but actually more like some kind of cruise missile. Who knows? But anyway, they used the pelican and the flamingo, these missiles against Moscow. And I'm going to say, first of all, that the results were paltry. All right, they hit the refinery again. They hit a warehouse. But relative to the cost of what this operation would have been, some are saying between

$150 and $200 million, the results are minimal. The election was not disrupted. the damage done was not in any way great. It's probably cost the Ukrainians more to strike Moscow in this way, that it will have cost the Russians, both to deter this attack, to repel this attack, and to repair whatever damage it has done. So again, what we see is the way in which this war,

on the Ukrainian side is being conducted mostly, and in fact almost entirely as a public relations piece of, well, I remember what you once said, film management. It's like a film studio, lots of smoke, lots of, you know, missiles, the sky full of drones, except that the actual results are, frankly, minimal. They have no bearing at all on the actual situation in the war, and the situation in the wall is terrible. Firstly, the Russians continue. They're immeasurably more powerful missile and drone and bombing raids on Ukraine. Zelensky has now admitted that his budget

deficit is, as you put it, of cosmic dimensions. It's enormous, apparently. In other words, give me more money. And he gets it, by the way. He telephoned. He telephoned Ursula. They had a conversation. Ursula gets off the phone and signs him a check for three and a half billion euros. It's unbelievable. That was her post on X. Everything you just said, that was her post That ex, got off the phone with Zelensky, gave him $3.3 billion. That's unbelievable. I mean, like George, and I saw that. But anyway, so Zelensky's going to get more money because that's really what Zelensky is all about now.

The Ukrainians encircled in Oreckho, which is, I understand, mostly now controlled by the Russians, the Ukrainian troops who were in O'Rejof, they were told to withdraw. It was left too late. They're now trapped. There's an awful battle going on. Most of them, I'm afraid, will probably be casualties in this terrible war. Dobropilia Alexeivo, Dhrushkivka and Dhrushkivka, the southern part of the Slavianskramatos, conurbation. all of those places are still going to fall one after the other.

Again, troops, lots of Ukrainian troops, trapped in these places. Up in Kharkov, another cauldron, more Ukrainian troops trapped. Donald Tusk has now blurted out that the Ukrainians are losing 27,000 men a month, which is close, as I said to what. Putin has said they are losing. And Budanov. And Budanov as well. So as I said, we're now getting, starting to get admissions about the real level of Ukrainian losses.

And Beletsky and Azov fighting their own private war in Lehman, which is what Beletsky has done many times in the past. He also is engaging in his own PR. operation, a brilliant offensive that's going to roll the Russians all the way back, reverse the gains in this area that the Russians have made over the last two years, except so far he's just managed to capture a small cluster of villages, losses apparently incredibly high, and none of the gains that none of the enormous gains that we were promised about a week ago that the Ukrainians had supposedly already achieved. It's again, it's Boleski. He's fighting his own private war in the North, in the Lehman area, which he's done previously on other occasions as well. He's done

this in the past. He's got the Azov people fighting. engaging in offensives which ultimately achieve nothing. But it means that Beletsky is distanced from the events that are going catastrophically wrong. Everywhere else, he can pretend that on his part of the front lines, things are going well, even when in fact they're not. Yeah, they do this all the time and people fall for it all the time. They make progress in assertance. sector or area. They lose a ton of soldiers. And then the Russians just roll them right back.

Yes. It's happened five or six times during this SMO. Yeah. And it's happening again with Beletsky and Libon. I saw his latest statement, his video statement, and the guy looked very panicked. Yes, he did. I mean, he even said in his statement, we're just fighting to defend every last inch of territory. He wasn't confident saying we're advancing quickly and we're taking village after village and then the Russians are in retreat. No, he said that we're trying to defend and hold on to every inch of territory that we can get or that we currently have.

I mean, it was a very, a very jittery, panicky statement. I mean, I heard him and I didn't get the impression. You watched the video. You don't get the impression that he's doing well at all. Exactly. And you kind of get the impression that this is a guy that's saying inside of himself, you know, I really effed up. Absolutely.

Well, he has, by the way. I mean, this is going to end in another debacle. In fact, by the way, there's been an analysis by a Russian officer called a Popov, who's our commentary. He's a colonel in the Russian army who said that this is actually very useful to the Russians. because in the Lehman area, the Ukrainians actually had very strong fortifications. What Bieletsky has done by going on the offensive is he's taken the Ukrainians out of those fortifications into the open, where the Russians can more easily destroy them so that whether Russians do advance in this area,

there aren't going to be enough Ukrainians to hold the fortifications. This is, by the way, happened in many places. It's happened recently in Zaporosia region, in O'Rejov. And I'm sure that this is exactly how it's playing out in the Lehman area too. It's, anyway, it is a debacle. But, but Beletsky, Zelensky, the leadership, the other people in Ukraine, none of them are talking peace. when anybody suggests negotiations with the Russians, like Yulia Mendel, Zelensky's now alienated and disillusioned former press spokesman.

When she talks about peace, she's immediately sanctioned the European Parliament bars her from attending the European Parliament. None of the leaders of Europe mouth, Macron, Burnham, Osula, Maloney, our serious Macro, our talking peace at the present time. There was some talk, if you remember, a year ago of appointing a European representative to conduct the negotiations on behalf of the EU. They could never agree on who that person should. be and no such person has ever been appointed.

Kaya Kallas is still there. She still makes the same comments and observations as she always has, sounding as zany and as disconnected from reality as always. It's extraordinary to watch this play out in real time, even as Ukraine is being smashed. They all still want to keep the war going for as long as they can. And what they're going to do, and this is the obvious next step, is they're going to go to Donald Trump and they're going to say,

you can't let the Russians win, you've got to step in, you've got to do something to stop them. You've tried with the sanctions. You've tried with persuasion. Now you've got to do something much more kinetic and aggressive. And, well, who knows? Maybe he will listen. But that, I think, is that plan at the present time.

Yeah, I don't trust any of the people that are on the collective west side. Or even on the Ukraine side, Alexander, that are talking about some sort of peace. Because they're not sincere about it. Everything that they're saying, they're not talking about a long-term solution. No. They're talking about a reset and a rearm. That's what they're talking about. Exactly.

When they say peace, they don't mean peace. They mean a reset, and then we're going to go back at them in two, three, four years. That's what they mean. Absolutely. It's a truce in order to rearm and continue the war. It's Minsk all over again, only on steroids. It's bigger than Minsk, actually. Which is why we're so far apart in this conflict, because the Russians are talking about a long-term solution.

Absolutely. Everybody on the Ukraine side and on the West side, on the collective west side, all they're talking about, all they're focused on is a truce. A temporary ceasefire in order to go back at them, go back at Russia again in the future. Yes. Well, as you know, I was in Russia in June and I spoke to one set of people, including, as I said, working class Russians, who are absolutely opposed to a truce and want to see the war fought and won. And now we've had a group of Americans, well-connected Americans, going to Russia and they've spoken to elite people. And apparently they have all said exactly the same thing. I spoke to one of these Americans who was John Meersheimer when I was in the United States just now. They spoke to lots of people, well-connected people in Moscow. All of them basically are saying this has to end and it has to end with a victory. And they are people who Putin speaks with.

Look, Trump is going to fold. Trump. Whoever is the decision maker. Yes, yes. I personally think it's the CIA and Ray Rackcliffe. I think you believe the same that they're the ones that driving this conflict and running this conflict. And they're the ones that are really making the decisions. But anyway, let's call this person Trump that decides how things are going to move forward.

He will try his best to escalate and to defeat Russia. Yes. He doesn't, the Europeans will ask it of him, but he doesn't need the vassals to come to him. The United States does not need the vassals. Correct. To make any kind of suggestions or any demands. Yes. The United States knows exactly what's happening.

And in order to avoid a devastating loss in this war, they're going to do whatever they can to try and get a reset, to try and save whatever is left of Project Ukraine. Not Ukraine. They don't want to save Ukraine. They want to save Project Ukraine. Correct. And they're going to do whatever they have to do to try and save project Ukraine and get a reset. The problem that the U.S. has, and we've talked about it over many, many shows, is that they just don't have the capabilities anymore to pull this thing off.

Absolutely. Not to mention that they're bogged down in an entirely another conflict, maybe even two conflicts, you could argue, they're bogged down. So this is the problem that they have. If the U.S. could, they would. They would. Absolutely. Nonetheless, this is the most dangerous moment in the war up to now, and it's going to get more dangerous. As the Russians advance west, as Ukraine's economic situation becomes more difficult, as disaffection in Europe itself grows, the demand for escalation is going to increase. And one can think of all kinds of things, you know, in spite of of, you know, the fact that the US is low on capabilities. They still have capabilities. I mean, they could put a normal, they could lean.

Now, I'm just going to give one example, and I don't want to, you know, put too many ideas in people's minds. But, I mean, they could lean on Erdogan to allow American warships into the Black Sea, for example. I mean, that's one, that is one possibility, and that would be massively escalatory. And, well, the Russians would react. And, I mean, you know, we have to be prepared for those ideas, for those possibilities. You could say that they'll lean on Germany to hand over terrorist missiles, which I think they will.

Well, I think... Tomahawk missiles, which is very possible as well. Absolutely. But everything that I've said and everything that you said is not going to change the outcome of the war. Even US ships entering the Black Sea are not going to change the outcome of the conflict. Well, I would not want to be on one of those ships if they went to the Black Sea. I mean, that's the first thing to say. And I wouldn't want to be President of the United States.

Absolutely. Sending those ships into the Black Sea. Absolutely. Because if you were to make that decision, then you could kiss your presidency goodbye. Well, not just your presidency, your entire reputation. Yeah. And whatever. But having said that, you know, I don't want to explore these futures.

My point to you, though, is that they can't do anything. Exactly. But that doesn't mean they're not going to try. And that is what makes this situation so extremely dangerous. And it is extremely dangerous. They cannot face the possibility of a Russian victory. The fact that there is no simple way of reversing it, unfortunately, makes them more likely to try something. utterly reckless and unbelievably dangerous. And we're going to need to be very, very level-headed to get this thing to get through. And we'll see how it goes. I'll just end it on this note, which we've said many, many times. What a foreign policy disaster for the Trump administration. This was such an easy.

Well, excellent. easy conflict to resolve for the Trump administration. And they've completely just messed the whole thing up. Yes. Yes, I completely agree. I mean, I just, given how easy it was, it is truly extraordinary that Donald Trump landed himself in this, in the situation in which he's found himself in.

to repeat again what we said back in August 2024, walk away, do the deal with the Russians, let the Russians sort out Ukraine, but agree that they wouldn't go beyond that, which they would have been perfectly happy to do, and tell the Europeans, if you want to take on the Russians, you know, you can do all by yourselves that the United States is not involved. It is not concerned. It is no interest in this war. Well, had the United States said that we would today be in a completely different place. Even today.

Even today. Even today he can come out and say, I'm done. Yeah. But he's not going to. No. It's impossible. Yeah. For him, it's impossible to get out of it.

He could do it. It's not impossible. He could do it. But he came in his mind, in the administration's mind, in the CIA. CIA is mine. They can't do it. They can't do it now. I completely agree. Anyway, all right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We are also on substack.

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