The Duran Podcast - Ukraine frontline update, drones and diplomacy w/ Patrick Lancaster

Episode Date: March 7, 2025

Ukraine frontline update, drones and diplomacy w/ Patrick Lancaster

All right, we are here with Alexander Merkiris. And once again, we have a very special friend to the channel. Patrick Lancaster joins us once again. Patrick, before we get started talking about what is going on in Ukraine on the front lines. Where can people follow your work? Hi, guys. Thanks as normal for having me. It's great to be here with you to put our forces together and show the world a little bit

of what they're not going to see in other places. So, yeah, my work, the majority of my major reports go on my YouTube channel, Patrick Lancaster. And of course, the majority, if you want to get the most out of my journalism, you got to go to my substack blog. That's where a lot of more content, long form articles, short videos, long videos, behind-the-seat videos, so much more it goes there than on my YouTube channel. So that's where people really need to go, subscribe to my, uh, subscribe to my, uh, substack. Of course, on Twitter and telegram and things like that. But the meat of my work is on

substack and then, of course, YouTube. All right. Now we'll have those as links in the description box as well as a pinned comment down below. So, Alexander, Patrick, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine on the front lines. And maybe we can also talk about the situation in Kursk and Sumi, actually, which is very interesting. So, Alexander, let's get started. Absolutely, because over the last two weeks, we've been hearing, it's been dominating a lot of the headlines, a lot of the commentary is the diplomacy. And that's important. But it's always important to remember that, you know, the diplomacy, what drives it is the actual war. It's the war that shapes the diplomacy, not the other way round. And what is going on on the front lines is where the real

events are unfolding. And there's no one better to give us a sense of what the situation there is all about. And then Patrick, who goes to the front lines, meets with the soldiers, gets a sense of feel of the situation at the moment. So Patrick, I get to start with a very open, big question. I mean, lots of diplomacy, lots of discussions, presumably. people in the militaries, the Russian military know about this, are the soldiers interested? Or is it something that is, you know, far away, they've got a war to fight, they're going to focus on that. Because people ask me this question. I mean, I've had a number of people ask me, what do the soldiers on the front line think? And the answer is I simply don't know. I mean,

I don't know whether they care or whether it's the battle that they have to fight. That remains always their focus. I suspect the second, but perhaps you could just give a comment about that first before we get into the detail. Well, actually, Alexander, they are, of course, interested in the politics that are going on because, I mean, they want this war to be over just like everybody else does. I mean, the Western mainstream media tries to paint the Russian soldiers as these big bad boogeymen who are just, you know, trying to pick on Ukraine. But the fact is, you know, the soldiers on both sides have families, brothers, you know, children, you know, parents.

They're all people. And the Russian soldiers on the front line are hoping for peace. I've been ever since it appeared that Trump was going to be coming in the office with his promises of peace and all this. I've been asking him what they think about this and is, well, we hope he does something. We hope he's able to. And, you know, I ask them, of course, how?

And he says by stopping the weapons and lethal aid to Ukraine. Well, looks like that has kind of happened, I guess. We'll see how much it actually really sticks. I mean, of course, we saw that the targeting data and all that being delivered to Kiev for the Hymars is supposedly stopped. Well, we'll know that for sure. Well, we'll know that isn't true if a Hymars lands somewhere. So I'm definitely keeping an eye out for that. So is it really true, are these hymars really useless now or not?

But the soldiers are hopeful that peace is going to come soon. Like everybody wants peace and everybody's families is praying their father, sons, are coming home from the war on both sides. What is the general feeling about the war amongst the Russian soldiers at the moment? Do they feel that they've got, that they are winning or is it a stalemate? Is morale strong? And will they continue to fight? Because, of course, if they think there's going to be peace soon, or they might think

the might be peace soon, is that making them less ready to fight to go into battle, to risk their lives? Again, it's something that I don't know, because I've never been close to social. in war. So what is their mood at the moment? Well, from the side of the Russian soldier and eyes of the Russian soldier, it's pretty obvious to them that they are winning. I mean, every day or every couple of days, there's more announcements of more territory being taken by Russian forces. I mean, just the other day we had the last week, we've had territory in Kursk, Sumi region.

And now there's even word in the Lugansk region as part of the 1% of the Lugansk region that's still controlled by Ukraine, that some of that might have been taken back around the Bolivgorovka region or town. So it's not 100% confirmed yet, but the rumors are some of that, territory has been taken by Russian forces, and that's what's really had some really bloody

hard fighting for a long time there. So if they've taken part of that, that's really a big step. And if they fully remove Ukrainian forces from that area, I mean, that's huge. It doesn't get a lot of news this area because it's just as one little sliver left, but it's big for the soldiers, for sure. You know, and on February 20th, Putin, said, Russian forces are in the Sumi region of Ukraine. And of course, Ukraine denied it. And Ukraine media denied it. Well, just, I believe, two and a half days ago,

Ukrainian forces came out and said, okay, yeah, you're right. Russian forces are in the Sumer region. And there's just, I mean, it's really, at this point, kind of symbolic, but they're there. It's right on the edge on the border. border across from Korsk, a little town, uh, Zokurovka, I believe if I'm not butchering the name, but, uh, just a little town that I'm

sure like many of these front lines, front line towns just been destroyed. I'm actively working on, uh, with contacts and trying to get into the Sumi region, trying to get into that, uh, area, uh, to really find out for sure what the situation is and make it a full report there. But it hasn't happened yet. And a lot of times when there's just these first entries, it does take time. But, of course, I'm going to be the first one in there to be showing, you know, what the real story is. And, yeah, so things are moving.

And back to your question, the soldiers, they see they're winning. From their eyes, they're winning. And they're ready to fight on. They're hoping peace is going to come this year. come even soon, but realistically, when they look at it, they know how Russian law works and how the Russian constitution works. And right now, the fact is there's five regions of what Russia calls Russia with Ukrainian soldiers on it. Kursk region internationally recognized, and of course the other four new regions, they call them. But Lugansky, as we said, it's about one,

percent and has been for a long time controlled by Ukraine forces Danyetsk I don't know of the exact 40%, 35 something like that but you know good amounts we've got Kramatur, Slaviansk

in places like that those two areas not so hard but the hard things when you get more south to Zaporosia and her son getting across the river taking control of those cities and that's a huge

beat for Russia, even if a war does go on. Now, if all aid stops to Ukraine, all Russia has to do is wear down Ukraine for a few weeks, maybe a month or something like that, and just walk across the riverbed. But if they are able to fight with lethal aid from the West, then it's going to be a long outdrawn battle. Best thing that can happen like this to save as many lives of people, possible if Ukraine comes to the table and gives up what Russian law considers part of Russia, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen.

Can I just ask a few things? Firstly, about attacks on the cities, on Donetsk and Gorlovka and Lugansk as well, because one of the ways that the Ukrainians have still been able to do it is with long-range missiles, including Haimars, I believe. Now we told that the intelligence, the data provided to those missiles is no longer being provided by the US. Are people discussing this in these cities that this might be the final end of the bombing, of the shelling of these places? Because this has been one of the most terrible and terribly underreported stories about this war. But does this give people hope that finally this nightmare of the shelling has ended.

Well, as far as Donetsk, I mean, Dynetsk is, you know, has been a really a huge evolution, you know, evolving up and down throughout the war. Just hours ago in Dynets, there's report of three people injured by an attack. It wasn't a high mars or anything like that. But, I mean, the biggest thing for Dynetsk is when Evdivka was controlled. became under control of Russia. But for now, I think it needs a little time to really understand how much these

high mars and other long-range weapons really affect the situation. But the fact is, Danyetsk is still within range of some artillery, heavy artillery, and of course, long-range drones, or even medium-range drones. The center of Dniezsk is,

I think, somewhere around, on top of my head, 23, 25 kilometers, give or take, from the front. So there's still a lot could get to the center of Dignettes, but it doesn't so much hit the center anymore, but the edges. And then Gourlifka, though, Garlifka's a different story. I mean, that's basically what Dynesk used to be a year, year and a half ago, just, you know, constant hitting, hitting, hitting. I mean, I was there, and cluster bombs came right down the center of the city,

the biggest intersection, injured, I think, seven or 12 people, something like this. But that kind of thing just happens every day. Just yesterday there was a civilian vehicle hit by a Kamikaze drone. And of course, you know, I think just about a month and a half ago

is when a friend of mine was killed by a kamikaze drone on the road from Danietz to Gorlivka. He's a journalist. I think we talked about it before, possibly. but yeah so I mean it's an evolution I mean just because the Heimars might stop doesn't mean these towns are out of the woods and the people know this and they've been living these up and downs I mean they're not going to believe things are done until something serious happens right now I have to say

I watch your program on Bella Gordovka and I think it's one of the most astonishing programs and I would advise everybody to go to your YouTube channel and to watch that extraordinary program. Why has it been such a difficult place to capture? Because this is what I don't understand. I mean, the Russians held it for a time in 2022. Then there's been a sort of seesaw battle about this place. What made it so difficult? Because it's also very close to some big cities in Lugansk.

I mean, Lysi Chansk, as I understand, is not far away. So what made it so difficult for the Russians to capture Belogorovka? Is it something about the topography? Is it that the fortifications there were particularly strong? There's lots of talk about the slag heat that's near this village. I mean, what made it such a difficult and intractable battle for the Russians? Well, what the soldiers tell me was that it's just a matter of this one area, Ukraine, having so much time

before the Russia came in and after just to build up the fortifications and make it just a a fortress

similar to how they did Abdivka and that's why Abdivka took so much time as well and it's just you know

pounding pounding I mean it said that some of the areas Ukraine has to go it's all

done under the ground There's these tunnels, sewage tunnels, and things like this. To get one place to the other, they actually have to go through the sewage tunnels. So as I understand, everything above ground is pretty much done. So it's a matter of the underground fortifications

and, of course, the ability to rearm themselves with supplies. They've got the direct, line from, you know, all of Ukraine, basically. It's right there on the border. So it's a really good situation for them to hold on to. And of course, they can't, they can't just say, okay, we're out because then that's a region that Russia controls all. Of course, that'll look bad on them. Right. Now, there's a narrative that we see all over the media here in the West, which is that Ukraine has been really successful in Korea.

creating huge fleets of drones and that these drones are causing the Russians real problems and that it's managed to slow down the Russian military significantly and that the Ukrainians have the advantage in the drone war. Can you tell us anything about this? Because you've mentioned the drones have been a problem and that they're a very frightening thing in the war and, well, it looks and sounds as if it would be frightening. But has Has the drone war actually shifted in Ukraine's favor and the way people say? I mean, what was your sense about that? I cannot say that it has shifted one way or another,

but I can say is that this war is being fought. You can't even say in the sky, but from the ground and the sky, because they're unmanned. I mean, these drones are just such an incredible psychological they're just horrible to work around I mean my last report in Harcov

I had one at first we thought it was reconnaissance Mavik drone DJI and listening to it and I'm filming all this and then we hear you can tell it doesn't sound like a reconnaissance because reconnaissance is more

it kind of just constant but when you understand that it's a kamikaze or FPV. It's like kind of almost like a wasp they say a wasp sound. And

then the commander on the area said, oh, okay, go back inside because we were like, there was two exits to the bunker. So I went back in and he took out his phone. I didn't realize he had did that. All this is in my last report. And

you know, I came in about five seconds later, boom and I thought he got killed I mean I was you know almost sure because the other soldiers they called for him and we just couldn't hear him answering

through the curtain but I was almost sure of it that he got hit directly and it just so happened that it hit on the opposite door where we were standing so like we were looking out

the right entrance to the bunker and it hit on the left entrance like to the back of where we were looking, you know, just a couple of meters. And I mean, that's just one example. And the hardest thing is getting to the locations, getting to the positions, driving, when you know just at any point,

when driving are walking. Like most times you're driving, you're driving, and, you know, you just know they can hit at any time. And actually, when we left that position in the evening, because you had to leave at the evening when it was night, a drone was following us, but it couldn't get too close to us, apparently, because we had the jammer on, and it was affecting its signal. But, I mean, just, I mean, no question, drones are the most effective weapon in the war

right now. And whether they're the small consumer DGI drones or the massive airplane drones, winged birds, they call them. I mean, just such an impact on the war. It's unbelievable. So much has changed in the last three years since Russia came in. And if you look at it between when this war first started in 2014, I mean, we're just talking, you know, not even night and day,

but we're talking Stone Age and modern age almost. I mean, it's just such a different war than it used to be. And I've just been here watching the change. all the, everything, it's just intense. Tell us why this advance into Summi is so impugent, because I remember in our last program, you said that the soldiers were telling you that they thought that the battle in Cus might,

and I don't want to stress the word might, because this is not a prediction. They were not making a prediction, and you were not conveying a prediction, but that it might be over by March. Is this battle in Sumi region connected? to the battle in Kusk region, are the two interconnected in some way?

Or is it, you know, go? Basically, you've got Kursk here, and then Sumi here, and this little bit is Ukrainian-controlled territory in Kursk, basically surrounding the city of Sousja. And Russia has been pushing them out of there, so now it's just this circle

that's almost encircle, by Russian forces of Ukrainian forces in Korsk. And up to the north is where the Russian forces are basically passed the Ukrainian forces that are still in Korsk region and

pushed into the Sumi region. Just like I said, almost a symbolic entry, but an entry. It's fact. Confirmed on both sides that Russian forces are in Sumi. And what that means is now

the war is on eight front lines of the war. We got Kursk, Sumi, Harka, Belgrade, Lugan, Zabrosia, Donetsk, and Horson. And

I'm trying my best to get to all of them early this year to show, to see for myself, what's really happening on all these different lines. But, you know, it's an effort. For every day that I get to the front line, you know, there's a week of, you know, attempting to organize and contacting, meeting new people and working my way to the Friday. I mean, because believe it or not, it's not so easy for an American journalist to make their way to the

Russian front lines. I'm sure. I'm sure that's right. They must by now. I mean, quite a few people must know that you're coming in complete good faith. Yeah. Yeah. The overall idea of it is, but every time getting to another location where there's all new commanders and new everything, and it just adds another layer of complexity to it, you could say. Yes.

I mean, can you just talk about the situation in Hassan and Saperosje? I realize you haven't been there for a while. But there are lots and lots of rumors. And, you know, one doesn't quite know what to make of them. That the Russians are, in fact, thinking of a cross-river operation and that they've been rehearsing how to do it. Have you any word about that? Have you, you know, are people talking about this in the military? Obviously, if it's a secret, then, I mean, you know, they wouldn't share it.

But sometimes one hears rumors. Have you heard any of those rumors yourself? Well, about her son in Zaporosa not quite. white yet anything, you know, really concrete. Of course, there's stories of, oh, in the summer we're going to take it and all this, as they say. But if we talk about the different levels of the military operations as far as, you know, just the ground things happening and stuff like air and things like this, now there is and has been in the last month an aquatic, you could say, operation going on in the Harkov region.

actually. So, I mean, can you say the two are linked? But, you know, going across rivers, there's the Oxel River in the Harkov region that Russia has been steadily moving across. So, I don't know if that could be training

to get ready for the, or Hurson region or something, but you know, it's definitely happening there. They're moving to the water in the Harkov region on the Oksul River. you know, down in her son in Zaporoja, things, you know, the geography is actually changed.

With the dam being blown up, I guess almost two years ago now, you know, the river bed in some areas is just that, just an empty river bed. Of course, there's still water flowing. But I really need to get down there soon and get to that front line and check it out myself to really understand the full. information, and of course we'll bring it to your viewers as it comes. Yeah. So, I mean, just to get a lost question, I mean, the intensity of the war is the same. I mean, the fact that we have discussions about peace doesn't mean that the fighting is, you know, reducing. At the moment, the fighting continues at the same level as previously. I mean, that's my overall sense from listening to you and from reading what,

various people are saying about the war, but is that also your impression that at the moment? It doesn't really affect the fighting too much as far as I've seen. And like I've said before, the fighting is so different on every front. I mean, how what's happening in the curse region is so different than what's how it's going in the Lugans region and so on and so and that's why it's so important for me to be jumping back and forth to just one place here and there. But, Yeah, it's still going hard. I don't think anything's going to change until there's an actual order for a ceasefire or something else.

But nobody, none of the sides, I mean, Zoninsky said before, he does want a ceasefire. And I mean, okay, in his, you know, tweet, he agreed for a ceasefire, but, you know, it wasn't an apology tweet like Trump wanted and demanded. and it was almost like just a directive of, okay, I'll take a ceasefire and this is how it should be. So I don't think that's going to work. He still thinks he's in charge for some reason. But, you know, I don't think Russia wants a ceasefire either. Why would they, why would they to give Ukraine time to, you know, build up forces more?

So I don't see how this is, I'm clueless on how this is going to end soon. It feels like something's going to happen to make it end soon. I hope. Maybe that's just my wishful thinking. But logistically, how? Because the Russian Constitution won't let Russia give up any of this territory that is legally part of Russia by Russian law. I just don't see how it's going to end as soon. And like Trump said, they don't want a 10-year war, even though it's already been a 10-year war.

Don't want a 20-year war. So, yeah, I just don't see it and I don't see how it's possible. I understand. I pray it's over soon. So do we all. Patrick, can I just say thank you very much. I mean, for all these wonderful answers, I just want to say one thing, and I have to say, obviously, we very much want your reports from all of these places.

And we look forward to getting them, you know, when you go to Hurson, when you go to Sumi region. But I have to say this, for my own conscience, please take care. I know you do. I'm just telling you, but I have to say it, I have to say it as well. I know you do. I know you're very careful. I watch your programs. Everybody who wants to understand the wall should watch your programs. They should go to your YouTube channel. They should follow you on substack. It is imperative. It is essential. It is absolutely reliable, your most reliable reporter about the wall that I know, partly because you are an outsider. But we want you still giving those. reports and please as I said make sure that you do so yeah thank you thank you again and that that that's that's that's me thank you you wanted to add that that's that's me before you go Patrick once again where can people follow yeah on my again

most important thing go on sub stack and subscribe to me there it's a free blog where you get notified by email of all everything I do that comes out so of course you can do the paid subscription, but I do everything free for any way, anyway, no pay balls. I want everybody to see my reports. And again, I'm only supported by my viewers, and that's through my, buy me a coffee,

so I guess we can put that link up as well. My funding, I'm only able to do this work because of the funding from my viewers. I make it a point, regardless what shows or whatever I go on, I never take any funding from anyone besides my viewers, just so I don't report to anyone. My viewers are the only people that I want to have any say on how I do my work.

And so, yeah, so substack, got to get in there, subscribe, and of course, my YouTube channel. And, yeah, again, thanks guys for having me. And yeah, Alexander, I'll try to stay safe. Tell my wife that as well. But, you know, it's really scary. It's really, really so scary sometimes going and coming back and just walking across fields when you know there's, you literally could be someone watching you from above getting ready to hammer you. So, yeah, but I do my best.

You do, you do outstandingly, but please, please be careful. That's all. I will. I know you are careful, but, you know, nonetheless, it's something we have to say. All right. Thank you, Patrick. Thank you very much, Patrick. Thanks, guys.

Thank you.