The Duran Podcast - Ukraine Loses Black Sea Ports and Air Defense Options

Episode Date: August 18, 2026

Ukraine Loses Black Sea Ports and Air Defense Options

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening with Ukraine. And maybe we can start things off with some of the European diplomacy, if you want to call it that. A report from the New York Times, which claims that France, Germany and the UK, a little bit of the UK, they are trying to put together some sort of a position when it comes to the conflict. Ukraine so that they can have a seat at the table if the United States enters into negotiations with Russia. What are your thoughts about all this? Which, of course, they apparently, at least some of them, want the United States to do. The whole thing is, I mean, it is borderline absurd. Bear in mind, we are now coming towards the end of the fifth year of the war. And they still

trying to work out a negotiating position. They haven't yet found a chief negotiator. They are not talking directly to the Russians, at least not in any serious way. But one does get a sense from these reports in the US that some people in London, Paris and Berlin are now becoming increasingly uneasy about the situation. There worries about air defense, the fact that Ukraine basically doesn't have any. There are worries about what's going to happen to Ukraine in the winter. They may have some understanding at some primitive level about what's actually going on on the front lines. But you know something? I'm not even sure about that because I think the information they're getting about what's going on on the front lines is very filled.

and is also heavily distorted by their own wishful thinking. And so at one level, they seem to want to get the Americans to restart contacts with the Russians because they're starting to see that some kind of pause, well, they feel that a pause in the war, something that they strenuously opposed in the past, is now needed. It is essential so that Ukraine can be given arrest, that it can be rearmed so that the war can resume again, because this is what this is all about. At the same time, they want to be directly involved in the negotiations. Last year, when the Trump administration first began negotiations with the Russians, they vehemently opposed any move to begin negotiations by the Trump administration with the Russians. Now they sort of want those negotiations to start because they feel the war is going badly, or some of them do.

But of course they insist that they should be there at the table participating in the negotiations so that basically they can pull the strings and wreck the negotiations when the moment comes and completely disregarding the fact that the Russians have made it absolutely clear that they don't want them there. And of course, it is the Russians who are the other side in the war that they need to be talking to. It is the old story. The West negotiates with itself. It moves further and further away from the realities. And it pays no attention at all to the concerns that are being expressed by the other side,

in this case the Russians, who have come to have profound, mistrust for everything that the Trump administration gets up to, and which at the same time considers the Europeans totally hostile and has made absolutely clear that he doesn't want them at the table. Yeah, these stories are just stupid at this point, to be quite honest. This is more of the U.S. is divided with Europe nonsense, right? I mean, do the Russians actually believe this stuff. You know, drones and missiles are being launched into Moscow. We had a huge drone, drone attack into Moscow just the other day. 800 plus drones and other Wildberry's facility was hit. All of this is happening with the backing at a minimum, a minimum, the backing of the

collective West NATO and the United States. And I say at a minimum. We all know what's really going on. Why would Putin and the Kremlin and Russia believe these types of stories about some sort of divide between Europe and the United States, some sort of jockeying for position by the Europeans to get a seat at the negotiating table? The U.S. doesn't want to negotiate. Europe doesn't want to negotiate. They want to continue this. I mean, it's obviously they want to continue this conflict because the strikes are becoming much more dangerous, much more. provocative? I mean, they're going after Russia in a big way. And that's not Ukraine going after Russia in a big way. That's the collective West going after Russia in a big way. We need to separate

a number of things here. First of all, will the Russians believe any of this and will they take it seriously? The short answer is no. And we know that because the Russians have told us as much. We've had a whole succession of statements now from Russian officials. They're becoming more assertive. They're starting to make public criticisms and comments about why is the United States supplying weapons and providing satellite guidance to Ukraine and all of that. Now, that may not seem very much, but remember, just a few weeks ago, we were discussing the fact that there were instructions across the Russian media, do not criticize.

the United States. The Russians are now starting to criticize the United States. This is becoming more open. They're starting to discuss more openly the American role in the war. Lavrov is becoming ever more aggressive about the American role and Putin himself is showing no interest in it. The Russians have also made it quite clear that as far as they're concerned, if Trump wants to send Witkoff and Kushner, to Moscow, well, he's welcome to. There won't stop Whitkoff and Kushner coming, but Whitgolf and Kushner are all but guaranteed a chili, in fact, or just Chile, an ice cold reception. And notice we've been hearing about Whitkoff and Kushner going to Moscow now for months, and this visit has never materialized.

and I get the sense that the Russians, frankly, aren't interested in it. Secondly, there have been a number of attempts to reach out to the Russians by European officials. I know a little bit about the British side. The British military have tried to contact the Russians. They're worried about the fact that the Russians are now talking about seizing British ships and European ships in Asian waters, The Navy is reporting to ministers that it can't protect British commerce in the Far East. It doesn't have the resources to do that, nor does any other European country. The military had been doing it.

We had that meeting in Vienna, in which retired diplomats tried to speak to the Russians, to a Kremlin official. We had the meeting in Azerbaijan between German business groups, and the Russians. In every single case, the Russians simply slammed the door. They turned up, they listened to what the Europeans had to say. I mean, this is now fairly well established. And they said, look, this is nowhere. This isn't getting us anywhere. You're not listening to what we're saying. We've set out our position many, many times. Obviously, we will meet because that's what we do. We always are prepared to enter into discussions. That's our policy. But what you are

proposing is unacceptable and it isn't taking us anywhere. So that is the Russians. The Russians are not, they don't believe the Americans, they don't believe the Europeans, whether there are, whether there is dissension between the Europeans and the Americans. The Russians don't care. because whatever arguments are going on between the Americans and the Europeans are irrelevant to the realities of the war. But that doesn't mean that there aren't actually dissensions to some extent between the Americans and the Europeans. And I think the explanation is, Jake takes us back to the drone offensive. Dron offensive is massive. thousands of drones being launched against Russia every day.

But the drone offensive is not having the effect that I think a lot of these people assumed it would. It's not affected the performance of the Russian economy. We've had economic numbers coming out of Russia. The economy is growing. It slowed in the spring, in the late winter, and spring, but it's resumed growth again because the central bank, as we never stop pointing out, has started to relax monetary policy and the easing of monetary conditions is resulting in a return to growth. The fuel situation has stabilized and stabilized far more quickly than anybody

in the West, I think, anticipated. The holiday season, appears to be going smoothly through southern Russia. Again, this was something that they aimed to disrupt. And, well, tens of millions of dollars, hundreds of millions of dollars, have been invested in this drone offensive and missile offensive against Russia. And it isn't delivering what I think they expected and what it promised. Instead, what we see is Ukraine's black seaport cut off. Ukraine's economy now on a massive downward plunge, no air defense across Ukraine and no prospect

of Ukraine acquiring any air defense. And as I said previously, I think there are glimmers of understanding on the part of some people that the situation on the front lines isn't actually going well for Ukraine. So you can understand that despite all the escalation of the drone attacks and all of this, there are now doubts and dissension between the Americans and the Europeans. But will it result in anything? The answer is nothing in terms of the war, but perhaps ultimately in the long term great tensions between the Europeans themselves and perhaps conceivably amongst some people in Europe and the Americans. The British media, which is very, very hard line, more hard line,

I suspect than the Prime Minister himself is, is now repeating again stories about Donald Trump being somehow associated with the Russians and acting on their instructions. and is criticizing him because he's not giving all the remaining air defense missiles to the United States House to Zelenskyy and Ukraine. So you could see that there is some tension there at the same time, even though, as I said, the Russians aren't interested, and it's not going to make any ultimate difference. It's not so much that Trump doesn't want to give the air defense to Ukraine.

They just don't have any weapons. We know this. They're not anything to give. You're absolutely correct. I just want to make one one quick point for you to comment on. Everything that you said is a perfect example of the disconnect that exists. Because you're pointing out how the drone offensive isn't having the effect that they thought it would have. It's not destroying the Russian economy.

It's not slowing down the Russian advances on the battlefield. It's destroying Ukraine. it's blockading. All these things that you mentioned are true, and we see it happening. But I still believe, and I know as well from various sources, that the decision makers in the collective West,

or at least a majority of the decision makers in the collective West, do not agree with everything that you outlined. They actually do believe they're winning the war. They actually do believe there's a stalemate on the front line. They do believe that the sanctions and more sanctions are crippling and will cripple the Russia and economy. They do believe that their drones are making a difference.

They do believe that they need to escalate further in order to further weaken Russia. And they still believe that if they do all these things, they continue to crank things up and continue to hit at Russia and to strike at Putin's war machine, as they put it, Russia will be forced to come to the negotiating table, which for them is good for Russia capitulating. I mean, they honestly believe that. I think this is the big disconnect. It is the massive disconnect. I don't see that changing either.

No, that is the massive disconnect. And it is what makes any kind of, any talk of negotiations absolutely pointless at this time in the wall. Because until and unless that changes, which it isn't going to do, I mean, it's not going to change until the Russians take here. I mean, it's going to require an event of that scale for the reality as something absolutely enormous, not the fall of Donbass, not the fall of Slaviansk, Kramatosk and all of these places. I mean, for one thing, what is now increasingly happening and it's becoming, I mean, it's becoming surreal, is that the Ukrainian mapping projects, DS, and Deep State and all of the others are simply not recording any longer Russian advances. And one gets the sense that all of the information that's been passed on to the European leaders, to people like Ursula and Macron and all of the rest, are based on these maps that Deep State and others are producing.

You yourself, I think, once told me that whenever anybody comes along to Ursula and tells it, well, you know, the information you're getting is not fully reliable, she sends them away. She only wants to hear the information about Russia collapsing, the economy in crisis, the fuel shortages, the media in Britain, and in Germany, by the way, are still reporting fuel shortages right across Russia, even though we have. have now overwhelming evidence from Russia itself that this problem has basically abated. It's, I don't say it's entirely gone away, but it has mostly gone away. But that is not the way that it has been reported here.

And it is not the way I think a lot of policy makers, especially in Europe, understand this. So this is what is going to make everything ultimately very difficult in terms of getting any kind of negotiation started. What is, if there is ever going to be a negotiation, which I don't actually believe. Because unless you break through this information fantasy world, which they don't want to come out of, there is no sense. that anything is going to change. At the moment, there is worry. I mean, here I think there's no doubt there is worry about the absence of air defense in Ukraine. There is worry about what is going to happen in Ukraine over the course of the winter.

But the whole thrust at the moment is to try to get the Americans to come to the Russians and to force the Russians somehow, force the Russians, which the Americans have been trying to do now for four and a half years, to force the Russians to stop their advance. Again, no real idea about how the Americans are going to do that. And if the Russians won't stop their advance and won't stop the attacks on Ukraine from the sky for the United States to resume giving Patriot Missile interceptors to Ukraine. And we've had editorials in the Financial Times in Britain and in the Daily Telegraph basically saying that the West must give all, well, it must resume giving air defense missile interceptors to Ukraine. Heedless of the point you've just made that there just aren't any air defense

missile interceptors to give. It's again a refusal to address those realities. In the Kremlin as well, in that the Kremlin, Russia just doesn't seem to want to believe, they refuse to believe that these people, on the other side, the collective West, are living in such a bubble. I think they find it hard to believe that they don't want to acknowledge what's really happening on the front lines, on the battlefield, with the Russian economy, with all these things. They refuse to acknowledge this. The West, I think the Kremlin is having a hard time actually trying to understand that.

They're probably sitting there having meetings, and they're saying, you know, they still don't understand that we've captured Konstantinovka, for example. They still refuse to admit it. They refuse to admit that the economy is not collapsing. Kaya Kalis gave an interview to Die Welt just the other day. And what did she say? Ukraine is winning. Russia is losing.

The Russian economy is collapsing. all the same talking points that they've been saying now for the past two years, the next sanctions package will destroy the Russian economy, so we need to continue to escalate and we need to continue to put the pressure on Putin and on the Kremlin to force them to end the war and to come to the negotiating table. They're stuck. They're absolutely stuck in this fantasy, as you said. But I just wonder, does Russia and the Kremlin understand how stuck they really are?

Because they're very much in a completely. complete bubble. And you know, there was an exclusive from the Kiev independent the other day where they claimed that Ukraine has handed to Trump a report about the true situation of what's happening in Ukraine. And it was very much what we're saying right now. The Russians are not advancing. They'll never take Donbassu. By the time they take Donbos, it'll be not even in 2007 because there's a complete freeze in the conflict and the troop movements on the front lines. And this is the report that they allegedly presented to Trump, of course. You know, it's laughable to say that Ukraine is giving an update to the U.S. on what's happening in this war when the U.S. are the ones that are commanding and controlling this war. They know exactly what's happening on the front lines, or at least the U.S. military should know exactly what's happening on the front lines because they're the ones that are commanding and controlling the conflict.

They're the ones making decisions. So, I mean, I just wonder there is this huge disconnect. But you have to acknowledge there seems to be a disconnect in Russia. Right. Indeed. I think there's a number of things first to say here. You're absolutely right. I mean, this is what the Ukrainians are doing. They're giving these ludicrous updates. There are plenty of voices inside Ukraine that are actually describing the real situation. There are military bloggers. If you go to that substack side, events in Ukraine. It provides, it's a very good side aggregator. It provides you information about what these people are saying. People like Yuri Bhutuzov, Mutsch Noi, Yuga, and they all come with these strange names. Anyway, they actually do describe that's not fully the whole starkness of the

situation, but they take you much closer to the actual realities. So when we talk about the Ukrainians, It's essential to understand that it is Zelenskyy and these people in Kiev who are spinning these stories. Not everybody in Ukraine is. I mean, a lot of the information we're getting and which we base our commentary on ultimately does come from people inside Ukraine. I just want to say that because I don't want people to think that we only get one of views about the war from one side.

When we say it's bad, it's because there are also people, many people now, in Ukraine who are also saying it's bad. But of course, in the West, they don't listen to those. They listen to two, they go to two sources. One is Zelensky and his group in Kiev. The other is the generals in Vizbaden. Now, here I have to say it takes both of us back to what we heard when we were in Chattanooga.

the accounts that we got, especially from Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis, about the way in which the generals, the American generals, were misreporting to the White House the situation in Afghanistan. They were just as historically they misreported the situation in Vietnam. And I'm afraid exactly the same thing is going on. These people have a vested interest in keeping the war going. They don't want to acknowledge the things are going from bad to worse. So I think this is also playing a role in building up this fantasy bubble that we're talking about. And as I said, it is a fantasy bubble. Now, about the Kremlin, I think what you said absolutely describes the situation in the Kremlin up to the end of last year.

I think some people like Medvedev, Lavrov, some of the people within the intelligence world, perhaps some of the people within the military, were deeply suspicious, had already come to the conclusion that the Americans and the Europeans were indeed implacable and that any thought or idea of a negotiated solution was a fantasy. Remember what I said. When Putin went to Anchorage, did what he thought was a deal with Trump and came back to Moscow. I have never forgotten the look of controlled fury on the faces of the other members of the Security Council that he was reporting to. So there were some people in the Kremlin who already back then, we're talking about the summer of 2025, were very, very, very.

skeptical, not just skeptical. I mean, openly doubtful about what Putin was up to and very, very angry that he was negotiating with the Americans and completely mistrustful of everything that the West was about. Now, I think there was a major change in Russia and on Putin's side. At the end of December 2025, in January 2026. Firstly, in the weeks leading up to that, it was clear that Trump was not going to implement whatever deal Putin thought he'd made with Trump in Anchorage. They had a very contentious conversation. I think it was in November.

Trump proposed a summit meeting in Budapest, which he then immediately called off. Then there was the attack on Valdai, which is the Russians definitely believe was an assassination attempt on Putin. And then shortly after, Witkoff and Kushner arrived in Moscow, and they presented all sorts of ideas to Putin, which were completely unacceptable to the Russians and apparently departed significantly, from Anchorage, and critically, they withheld from the Russians, they withheld from Putin key documents that apparently existed, including a draft agreement between Ukraine and the

United States, for the United States to provide Ukraine with security guarantees. And then, if you remember what happened, was that throughout the spring, the late winter and the spring, Putin stopped discussing Ukraine and he became, well, he was talking about lots of other things, but he didn't talk about Ukraine. And we said that clearly a major debate and discussion within the Kremlin was going on about where this was leading to. And, you know, let's say it straightforwardly, I think Putin was probably subjected to a significant amount of internal criticism. And then in the late spring, early summer, Putin began to reemerge, and we got a much harder line, not just from Putin, but from the Kremlin altogether. And I think

that has basically stuck. I don't think the Russians are in any further mood to engage with negotiations, the West in negotiations anymore. Definitely, I think that they did find it very difficult to understand that the West could be quite as irrational as it was. But I think now there's a general understanding across the Russian leadership that the West is absolutely as irrational as it appears. And it does look like the West is just going to continue to escalate, even though the situation for Ukraine is terrible. They don't see any concerned.

It seems like the West, they're focused now. on just hitting Russia. They don't seem to pay so much attention to what's going on in the battlefield. Even the media doesn't really talk about anything going on on the ground where, you know, three years ago they were talking about everything going on on the ground, whether it was Mahmood or EFCO, whatever. They were getting into the weeks and they were trying to figure out what's going on. Of course, it was on the pro-Ukrainian side of things, but they were reporting on battlefield

battlefield movements. Over the past six months, they don't seem to be reporting anything at all about what's happening in various cities or settlements or regions. Everything is focused on hitting Russia. And so you have the report from the Sunday Times,

which talks about UK drones that have been used for six months now. Other financial times talk about the Chinese parts, the components that go to hit Russia as well. I think it was financial times that discussed the whole Chinese part in the whole drone offensive that's

being launched against Russia. Yes. And we have the former defense minister talking about the firepoint ballistic missile that he claims will be ready to be launched into Russia, deep strikes into Russia in three to six months. He's saying by around the end of the year. give or take, you'll be seeing ballistic missile strikes into Russia. To me, we've seen this playbook over and over again. Yeah, absolutely. Whenever you get someone talking about weapons will arrive or will be ready in three to six months. That usually needs that those weapons are

already in place and ready to be to be fired. And these are not Ukrainian ballistic missiles. There's no way that Ukraine has developed firepoint has developed a ballistic missile. So I was wondering who handed over the ballistic missiles. missile and when is it going to be launched? And it's already in place. If he takes six months, then we know that those ballistic missiles are going to be launched very, very soon. Well, anyway, let's just unpack all of that again.

First of all, first of all, why are they no longer reporting information from the front lines? They're not reporting information from the front lines because they now have, this narrative that the front is in stone, mate. They don't want to report anything about the front lines because, of course, if they did, if they started to do that, they would have to drill into what is actually going on and they would have to start admitting. They would be forced to admit to themselves that the Russians, it is in fact the Russians are advancing and that it is indeed the case that Donbass is about to fall. So for that reason, that in time, that in time, discussion has been shut down. Now, I have come to the conclusion that this drone offensive

that we've seen, which I suspect was years in preparation. I think the preparation of the drone and missile offensive that we see happened today actually began in late 2023, 24. And, you know, it's a complex discussion, but I can remember at that time, Victoria Newland was already talking about creating a sort of defense line that the Russians would not be able to break through and Ukraine turning the tables on the Russians by launching deep strikes inside Russia. I can remember her talking about things like that directly after the failure of Ukraine's 2023 Zaporosia offensive. So they've been working on all of this. They've stockpiled the Chinese parts. They set up the drone factories.

They've worked out the satellite communications. They've ironed out all the things with Starlink. They started production of the ballistic missiles and the Flamingo cruise missiles, which take in about two, three years to get into service. And that's what we see play out at the moment. Now, the point about this offensive is, is that because it's going on in the sky, it can't be measured in the same way

that the 2023 Zaporosia offensive could be measured. It was very, very difficult, fairly early on in the summer of 2023 to work out that the 2020-offensive towards the Black Sea was failing. with this current offensive, you can't say that. I mean, you can see Ukraine being smashed up to pieces. But given that there is very little reporting going on by the Western media from inside

Russia and they don't want to accept information from Russian sources or independent sources, You can go on pretending that this is working, and you can go on doing that indefinitely. Since you don't want to end the war, you just continue with this offensive. You continue to provide the drone parts. You continue to provide the drones. You escalate with more and more missiles. You don't have any way of being taken to task, people coming and making the point. that this is massively expensive, which it is and is not producing the results that it is

supposed to. In that respect, it is the perfect way to keep the war going and to preserve the illusion of victory, because it's almost impossible, you know, if you're in the West, to see that it is not, in fact, succeeding or achieving the results. that you say, the trouble is, and this is where the big risk comes, what is happening on the front lines, what is happening in the respective economies, what is happening in the larger war is eventually going to have an effect. You can keep a bubble of illusions going until the moment when that bubble bursts. If the Russians reach Kiev, then, as I said, it's no longer possible. at that point to go on pretending that all is going well when in fact it is going badly.

But if you created a narrative of success up to that point, if you have invested so many, billions of dollars, I mean, the cost of the drone offensive, purely in terms of the price of the drones that Ukraine is launching, is at least a billion dollars a month, actually it is much, much more than that. Well, at that point, especially given the entire rhetoric that you've built up about the Russian threat, about the Russian war, what do you do? And here I think is where the real danger is, because at that point, if the Russians reach Kiev, given all that we have seen, there's going to be a massive outcry from all the usual people saying that we have got to take action to stop the Russians in their tracks, we have to send ground troops to Ukraine.

We have to do the ultimate escalation, which we have not been able to do up to now. But I think that is the real risk of what is going to happen. I think that is a far more likely possibility, I have to say, the negotiations. Yeah, I think Trump, just to finish out the video, your thoughts, I think Trump did a masterful job in buying time, buying about six months to a year's time with the whole anchorage, negotiations,

calling up Putin, all of that stuff. You're right. Newland did say those things, and I think they did need two to three years. Yeah. Part in that he did buy some extra time. That was,

I mean, I don't know if you want to comment on that, but yeah. My final thought, my final fault is that you're exactly right. I honestly believe that once Russia captures Slaviansk and Kramatowski, even Putin giving out new terms, which I believe he will, and you've said that he will. I think the collective west is just not even going to listen to those new terms. No.

It will be a Kiev or Dessa or something like that to finally break the collective West out of their bubble. Absolutely. I don't even know if that would work to be honest. Oh, no, I mean, I think if we see the Russian flags in a desolate or Kiev, then that will create. Absolutely. But Kramatosk, Zaporosk, Zaporosia City, I mean, these in military terms would be momentous events, but they're not going to be reported there in, they're not going to be reported in that way in the West.

because when people live inside their own reality, I mean, provided you can always find an explanation, a rationalization, you could say that's not really, it's not, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's an AI gimmick, or it's a Russian reconnaissance party, but in fact the Ukrainians are still in control of these places, you could, you could continue to spin it along. So I think that is, I mean, it will need something. on that scale. Now, about this Anchorage, having bought Ukraine time, I get to push back on for the West. I'm referencing your point about needing two to three years. Oh, absolutely. To build everything up. So it did buy them time to build up those stockpiles. This is where I'm not absolutely sure, because it's not as if the Russians agreed a ceasefire at Anchorage or actually took steps to slow down further the pace of their advance. I mean, the war continued at its same pace after Anchorage as it did before. I think the thing to understand about this wall is that just as it's taken the West two or

three years to build up its missile and drone capabilities to the level that we see today, It's taken the Russians two or three years to develop their erashtnik missiles, to improve their gerand drones, to sort out their anti-drone technology for their tanks, to build up their own reserves. It's probably true to say that all of what's going on of the diplomacy is really, it's really show theater. The war itself has. as its own timetable and had it before Anchorage and continues to have it now, continues with its timetable now, except, and this is, I think, the key thing, when Slovianz Kramatosk and all of these places fall,

when Oreckho falls, and O'Echo looks like it's going to fall very soon now, that's perhaps the moment when the timetable is indeed going to start to accelerate. And to say it again, at that point, we should not expect negotiations. We should expect massive demands in the West for further escalation. Escalation with nothing. I mean, because European militaries are in a terrible state. The American military, as we have seen, is overextended and overstretched. whatever happens between now and then American weapons inventories are still going to be heavily depleted.

But as we see, people who have no concern for those kind of realities are not going to allow those realities to prevent them. They're going to demand escalations. They're going to demand no fly zones. They're going to demand no troops, European troops, Western troops in Ukraine. They're going to demand backstops. They will get their friends in Congress in the United States to agitate and demand all of that. And then we will see.

I just think all of this is baked in the cake, isn't it? I mean, you know, Orejo falling will Ursula or Macron or merch? Oh, no. What an Orejov is or where O'Rejov is? They're not going to give them to slavians, glomatoos. They have no clue. They're not going to make it's fallen. they're not going to admit it's fallen.

But probably when OREFO falls, maybe, maybe the Ukraine mappers will admit that Konstantinovka has fallen. Maybe they'll admit that, right? I don't think so, actually. I mean, I don't see any sign that they're adjusting their maps at all. Yeah, my point is that they're not going to care because I just think the escalation is just baked in the cake at this point. No. Oh, no, I mean, yeah, I'll, yeah, let's turn that to it to that. No, yes.

Well, of course it's very concerning to write. Well, the point I was simply making is that I think that the wall has been following its own clock. All I am saying is that once we get through the fortified lines, specifically in Dombas, that clock is going to start turning faster. And that's going to be a very, very dangerous and wild time. Because if we start to see more rapid Russian advances, not towards places like Oreck-ov, obviously, to places like Zaporosia, ultimately to places like Adessa,

ultimately and most important to walk towards Kiev itself, then that is going to be the moment of crisis. And of course, when people get shaken out of their bubble of fantasy and confront reality, that in my experience, I've seen this happen many, many times. That is the moment when fear and panic and anger and rage and decisions made in anger without proper thoughts or calculation get made. and that is going to be extremely dangerous. Now, the Sunday Times telling us about British drones being used against Russia

and that the British are helping the Ukrainians to provide drones to attack Russia. And the British told telling us about ballistic missiles being worked on and prepared to be launched against Russia. Of course, it's concerning to the Russians. Of course, they've known this already. This isn't telling the Russians anything that the Russians did not themselves know. My own view about these reports, and I'm going to say it straightforwardly, I think they are connected with British internal domestic politics. There is, and I'm getting more information about this every day now, that the prime minister,

the new prime minister and his team are very, well, I wouldn't say there's. They're opposed to project Ukraine, but they are more doubtful about it than certainly Stama was and other prime ministers before. So what is happening is we're seeing articles appear in the media, in Britain, telling the prime minister, we are already so deep in. We are so heavily committed that we cannot back off now. That makes sense. Yeah. His heart's not into it. It's not that the UK is not committed to Ukraine.

They are. But his heart is not as committed as Stom or Twos or Surnac for that matter. Or Boris Johnson. Exactly. Exactly. But he's not going to be. He's not going to be. He can't stop this.

He's not in any position to stop it. He's going to be, I mean, everything about, I don't want to do that. Yeah, we're talking about Baddam. I don't want to talk about British politics here. But all the signs are that we have a very weak prime minister. I mean, he's taken no major steps on domestic policy, no major steps on foreign policy, no major steps on any kind of policy at the moment.

He's certainly not going to be the person to reverse course on Ukraine. I just don't see this at all. But what we're seeing is stories now being planted across the means, media, telling him in unequivocal terms, we are all in this. Don't even think about the possibility of pulling back. Right, exactly. All right, we will end the video there at durand.lococs.com. We're on next round, Rumble, we're on telegram.

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