The Duran Podcast - Ukraine military slow motion disaster

Episode Date: October 31, 2024

Ukraine military slow motion disaster

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on in Ukraine. And we are seeing the Russian military capture a lot of towns and villages, especially in the south. Of course, we had the big story about the capture of Selidovo. But it does look like with each passing day, the Russian military is capturing two. three, four towns or villages or areas in in Dombas. And I don't know, is this, is this what you would call a collapse, a frontline collapse, or are we at the beginning stages of a frontline collapse? You also have the situation in the north, which is also not looking good for the Ukraine

military. And then you go further north into Russia and you have the debacle that is Kursk. But it does look like NATO and Ukraine, they are in South Korea. They are trying to spin the narrative that the debacle in Kursk is going to be a result of the North Korean military moving in. So it looks like from an optics narrative standpoint, they continue to focus on Kersk. Obviously, it's going very poorly for the Ukraine military in Kersk, but at least they're creating the narrative, which will explain the defeat in Kersk. In Dombas, I don't know, how are they explaining what's happening in Dombas or are they just not even talking about it? Because what's happening in Dombas is a catastrophe, it seems, for the Ukraine military. It is a catastrophe.

To answer some of your questions, firstly, I think that we have now seen a succession of decisive Russian victories on a big scale, which taken together, are telling us that even if the collapse has not yet come, it is now just over the horizon. There was an article in, I think it was Asia Times, which said that the condition of the Ukrainian army now is similar to that of the German army in January 1945, in other words, a couple of months before there was the collapse in Germany. And I don't think that is that far wrong.

I mean, we've probably still got a couple of months to go, but things are turning very, very bad indeed. And we'll discuss the fronts in a moment in a little bit more detail, but there is a major disaster on the southern front lines. There is a slow motion disaster on the northern front lines. And in Korsk region, it's a complete and utter debacle. But what I just wanted to say is this. You talked about narrative spinning.

You talked about the North Korean troops. You talked about what is the West saying about the disaster in the South. I'm going to say this. I mean, there may be all sorts of theories about the North Korean troops, but the main reason why we're hearing so much about the North Korean troops, be it 3,000, 2,500, 3,000 or whatever it is. I mean, I don't know how many North Korean troops are there. The main reason.

we are hearing about the North Korean troops is because it's a wonderful way of talking about something connected to the war in Ukraine, which isn't about the war itself. You don't want to talk about Salinin. You don't want to talk about the disasters in the South in Kuroha. You don't want to talk about the thousands of Ukrainian troops who are surrounded. You don't want to talk about the coming implosion in Kusk. So what you do is you talk endlessly about North Korean soldiers, about the fact that this is absolutely outrageous and unacceptable and, you know, a threat to the security of the Pacific and the security of Europe and all of these things, you know, just a few thousand North Korean soldiers are apparently likely to change the whole security

situation right across the globe. You talk ceaselessly and endlessly about, that because especially in the run-up to the election, you don't want to talk about the disaster that is actually unveiling on the actual battlefronts. So I'm not going to spend more time discussing the North Koreans. I've discussed the many times. I don't think that there is actually very much reality to this story. You have lots and lots of assertions about them, but scarcely any hard factual evidence about where they are and what they're doing. But we had Brian Balletic on our programs, on our live stream we did with him, pointing out the difficulty of integrating North Korean troops into the Russian military in

this war. Stephen Bryan has written an equally hard-hitting peace in Asia Times, explaining in exactly the same way as Brian did, the immense difficulties of doing this. I still can't fathom why the Russians would want to do it or would need to do it. And I think it's unlikely it's going to happen, certainly not on any significant scale. But the point is, we're hearing about this story all the time because, as I said, it's a wonderful distraction from the real news, which is the ongoing collapse of the Ukrainian military. And that is what I want to talk about, because, you know, on one day, we got a statement from the Russian Defense Ministry.

They confirmed in the space of a single day that's the leader of a major fortified town, logistical center. It's collapsed. It's now been captured by the Russians. Gernick, Gorniak, it's got different names. It's been captured by the Russians. That's another important place. small village, Bogo Javlienka, it has been captured by the Russians. It's important because of its location, it's strategically positioned again in the southern front lines north of Uglodar. Another important village, Katerinowka, also captured by the Russians. The Russian Defence

Ministry is now publicising reports of the capture of villages like this and towns like this. Gernick and Salidovo were both significant towns. I mean, Gernick about twice the size of Soudsia in the Korsk region, to give an example. Selidav were much bigger and important places. They're all falling one after the other in quick succession. The Ukrainian army is being smashed right across southern Dombas. The Russians are said to be close. launching and offensive towards the NEPA. The Ukrainians are worried that the Russians might move

all the way west and might attack the two big industrial cities on the NEPA of Zaporosia at NEPRO. So it's a story of disaster. There's almost certainly in the next couple of weeks going to be a storming operation on Pakrovsk further north. Another town called Kouravo further south is on the brink of being encircled as well. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers apparently are being tracked and hunted across the steps with their units falling apart because Ukrainian lines are falling apart. this is an battle that is going disastrously wrong for the Ukrainians. You don't talk about it.

You don't talk about Salidavo or any of these other places in the media. You talk about the North Koreans instead. And further north, it's slower. The landscape is different. The Ukrainians still have forces there. They're still defending in places like Chassevya and Toretzk. But they're being ground down there as well. And in the Cusk pocket, even the media in the West admits it shrunk to about half its former size.

It looks like it's in very real risk of being cut off and the Ukrainian troops there being completely encircled. It looks like an absolute disaster. Zelensky continues to send all the risk. reinforcements he has, all the equipment that he has to Kosk rather than address the problem of the disaster further south. And again, you don't want to talk about the terrible mistakes that the Ukrainians have made and the folly of the Kosk operation. You say it's all down to the North Koreans instead. How are the collective West leaders seeing the situation? The European leaders, the U.S. leadership of Biden White House.

Sullivan, Blinken, I don't know. How are they looking at this, Austin? Because when they come out with narratives like Kursk and North Korea and they say that the fact that North Korea troops are going to be in Kersk, which is Russia, basically, they're saying that North Korean troops are going to be in Russia, whatever. When they say stuff like this and they say this shows Russia's desperation, I always look at it as their projection, right? Confession through projection. And when they say that this shows Russia's desperation, what they're really saying is this,

this proves our desperation because we have to come up with these types of ridiculous narratives of North Korean 3,000 North Korean troops are going to make the difference in Kursk because what's really going on is Kersk is, Kersk is, is a catastrophe, a debacle. It's collapsing. Ukraine continues to feed more and more military and material into Kursk to try and hold on to Kersk. And it's falling apart. And Kersk is important from a media standpoint because it's the foundation that Zelensky built his victory plan on top of. He built it on top of Kersk. His whole victory plan is an offshoot of his big Kersk incursion. that crumbles. Well, then, you know, his whole victory plan and long-range missiles and NATO membership,

all of that just falls apart. But they also see the situation in the south in Dombasa. They see the situation in areas like Sili Davo and what's going to happen in Torezsk and Pakrovsk and all these areas. And they have to be coming to the conclusion that the situation all across the front lines is falling apart for the Ukraine military. We may not want to talk about it, but reality is reality. And sooner or later, they're going to have to talk about it. The media is going to have to pick up these stories that are coming out of Sili Davo, that are going to come out of Torezsk, that came out of Ugladad. They're going to have to talk about it. They can be able to hide it any further. I mean, I'm just trying to, I guess my question is,

Aren't they seeing all of this? Are they making any moves? Are they doing anything about it? Or have we just gotten to the point where European leaders, U.S. leaders, Sullivan, Blinken, they've just come to the conclusion, you know what? Who cares? Just give them some money. Let the whole thing collapse.

Let there be chaos. Let someone else deal with it. The Europeans are not going to be able to do that, but the Americans can do that. At least Sullivan and Blinken and Austin can do that. But Ursula and Schultz, Annalina, all these people, the Europeans, Macron, they're not going to be able to just ignore everything that's happening in Europe. How do you think they're looking at things? You're absolutely right.

And you're absolutely right to draw the distinction between the Americans and the Europeans. I mean, the word desperation, which, as you correctly said, was attributed to Putin, but actually is a mirror imaging of what the Europeans feel. The word desperation was used by Mark Rutter, who is the new Secretary General of NATO. And it does reflect exactly what the Europeans feel. In fact, just a couple of days ago, there was a financial times,

a big Financial Times article about how the Europeans are scrambling. trying to find some way to hold project Ukraine together, trying to find, apparently there's informal meetings going on all the time. O'SILA is meeting with the ambassadors of the EU member states. There's all kinds of hushed discussions. There's plans about loans to Ukraine. By the way, I can't you to some reports. There's been no agreement about loans to Ukraine.

I saw some reports and said that the $50 billion loan to Ukraine has been approved. I mean, it's been approved in theory, but none of the details have been worked out. Everything is caught up and snared up. And if you actually go through the Financial Times article, well, of course, it's all attributed to Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the person who's going to pull the plug on the project Ukraine. But if you actually read the article carefully, it's sort of acknowledged. that actually, it isn't just Donald Trump, the Americans are now seriously thinking of walking away,

even a Harris presidency would not be as committed to Ukraine as the previous Biden administration has been. And that the Europeans ultimately cannot do anything without the Americans. And the Americans are losing interest because the Americans can walk away. They are an ocean and a continent away. What goes on in Ukraine doesn't impact directly on them in the same way that it does for the Europeans.

Ultimately, if Ukraine collapses, it is a massive political disaster for the leaderships of the various European countries. But for the United States, well, in general, Henry Biden will be gone. Sullivan and Blinken and all that crowd will be off doing other things. They'll no doubt have their prestigious positions in the NGOs and think tanks and universities and all of that. They'll be all right. The new president, whoever that is, will have lots of things, other things to deal with in the United States around the world.

the United States will remain a global superpower. The European countries will still be tied to it because they have nowhere else to go now. The Europeans, however, will be in a disastrous position. They will be in an awful position. And that is why the Europeans, who are perfectly well aware of the disaster on the Ukrainian battlefronts

are now behaving in this incredibly edgy and panicky way, why it is they who are talking about desperation, and why it is they much more than the Americans, by the way, who are alongside the Ukrainians talking up this North Korean story. Because, you know, the Europeans have no way

forward. They have trapped themselves rhetorically and politically in a way which makes it impossible for them to reach out to the Russians. There's all kinds of fantastic plans for freezes of the conflict and all of that that they can come up with, but the Russians have made it clear that they're not interested. With the Kazan Bricks Conference having now taken place, the Brazilian Chinese Indian caravan has moved on. Those countries I think are no longer interested anymore in trying to broker a peace agreement over Ukraine. They came to all kinds of important agreements with the Russians at Kazan, which they will want to move forward with. They're not going to let the problem of Ukraine stand in the way of all of that. So the Europeans have missed the bus

in terms of negotiating with Moscow. They still are incapable of negotiating with Moscow. And they're looking at this horrifying situation in Ukraine, even as they sense that the Americans are walking away, and they have no idea what to do. And that is why there is desperation and panic and why they're having all these little meetings, hurried meetings and talking to each other

and probably engaging in recruitment. and finger pointing, but notice no plans, no new ideas are coming, coming out. Nothing new is coming out because all the realistic options have been already rejected and shut away. Well, there is a small glimmer of hope from the Ukraine media and from some collective west outlets. We should probably do a dedicated video to this, but maybe you can, you can address it very quickly in this video. And that glimmer of hope is that the Russian economy is going to collapse. It's going to happen in 2025.

By the end of 2025, the Russian economy is overheating 21% nabulina interest rates, a shortage of workers. We just got to stick it out for one more year. There are articles in the Collective West talking about this. There are a lot of articles in Ukraine media talking about this. And I believe even Zelensky has made such statements along the lines of just one more year. One more year. And the Russian economy is going to finally collapse as we said it was going to collapse from when we put the sanctions on them in 2022.

Once again, this probably deserves a dedicated video because it is an interesting topic and a complex topic. But can you address that to close out of this video? Because it is that little glimmer of hope that they're using to extend the conflict or support for the conflict for one more year. Yeah, you're absolutely correct. Now, I mean, the thing to say is there is overheating in the Russian economy. There is also growth in the Russian economy. The Russian economy is expected to grow by around 4% this year. Industrial and manufacturing production is still rising.

and there is a major, a very, very major investment surge. Now, what Nubulina always does, Nubulina always does, when inflation is higher than she wants it to be, which it is at the moment. So her target is she wants an inflation rate of around 4% a year. While she's given, fixed on that particular target, is an open question, which I've discussed many times. in the past, but I'm not going to explore it now. Current inflation in Russia is around 8 to 9%,

which by historic Russian standards, by the way, is not high. It's often overlooked that until 2012, Russia had double-digit inflation within every year since 1990. So the Buellin brought it down, It's gone up again because of the investment surge and the labour shortage and all of these things. So she does what she always says she will do, which is she will increase interest rates to very, very high levels in order to increase savings and choke off demand, particularly in the construction sector. She also, this is another thing to say, made it very, very clear that she does not expect this to result in a recession because debt levels in Russia are so low. In fact, government debt is declining despite the country running a minor deficit because the growth rate is so hard. So debt levels are well under control. Living standards and real incomes are rising so that people can afford to pay these higher interest rates, which are high, but not unprecedentedly high.

And Nebula has also said, and she said it in her last press conference, that if there were any signs of recession, she would reduce. interest rates. So, I mean, this whole narrative of collapse, again, focuses exclusively on what the central bank is doing, which, by the way, is controversial. Some people in Russia, in the economics and industry ministry, and by the way, the finance ministry also now, are actually becoming critical of this. They say that Nebula is overdoing it. She's raising interest rates too high in order to achieve an arbitrary inflation target, which she has come up with, and that this is causing more problems than it's solving. And interestingly, the finance ministry has been making those comments now.

And that in fact, inflation is likely to fall anyway once the investment, into the economy that we've had over the last two years start to feed through. So, you know, there is always tension about this. But this is, as I said, Nebulae's own response to this problem, this problem of higher inflation. And the higher inflation, as I said, is not by Russian standards unprecedented. in the years of rapid growth in the first 12 years after Putin became president, inflation in Russia was higher than it is now. Just so.

Yeah. All right. And the worker shortage? I mean, that is a problem. Well, the worker shortage is a real problem and a long-term one. But of course, it's also a temporary one because once the war is over, which you probably will be in a year's time. A lot of the men who are in the army will go back to work and that will bring extra people into the workforce and we'll start to see the tempo things start to even out.

Putin is also saying that when that happens, the government will be able to slow down spending increases which are playing a certain role in the inflation push. But bear in mind, A lot of the claims about the budget, the Russian budget, are wrong as well. But we'll discuss that in more detail later. Suffice to say that Russia is not running a major deficit on the country, its budget is almost in balance. And it's also planning a major tax reform, which will probably start to crank in later in a few months' time, which will also probably dampen inflation as well, just as that. In other words, don't expect the Russian economy collapse by the end of 2025.

Don't bet on that. Well, can I say, I mean, by now, people ought to be able to see this story through this story. How many times we've been hearing about, you know, the Russian economy being on the state of collapse? You know, I remember, it was about a year ago, two years ago, there was a big, a sharp increase in the budget deficit in, I think it was January 2020. Oh, there's going to be a budget crisis. Russia's about run out of money. Russia is bursting with money. There's, if anything, too much of it. That's why there is a bit more inflation than there should be. But, you know, it's not a fundamental problem. And it's certainly not going to help Ukraine or lead to a collapse.

And by the way, it was a big article in the Washington Post, which basically said as much. Yeah. All right. We will end the video there. The durand. We are on Rumble odyssey, pitch, telegram, rockfin, and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. Like what we are wearing in this video, 20% percent. video 20% off use the code October 20 that is October 20th. The link to the Duran shop is in the

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