The Duran Podcast - Ukraine negotiation cynicism

Episode Date: September 9, 2025

Ukraine negotiation cynicism

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Ukraine, and perhaps we can discuss Trump's latest comments on what's going on with Ukraine and Russia and the negotiations that the United States is mediating. And Trump said that European leaders will be visiting him Monday and Tuesday, but it'll be one-on-one bilateral meetings. We don't have a list of the names of these European leaders who will be visiting Trump. Trump also said that perhaps maybe we're going to get secondary sanctions. Bessent said that he spoke with Ursula Vandolayin and their coordinating secondary sanctions.

Trump said that phase two, which is secondary sanctions, could be coming, but not a definite. Zelensky gave an interview to ABC News. And he said some interesting things. You may want to discuss that as well. And then we have the military situation. So let's break it all down. Yeah, let us indeed. Because I mean, we've had a whole succession of very interesting statements from Putin that he made last week.

And to repeat again, and it's a point that we've discussed in our previous programs, But it seems to me that the Russians are now saying to themselves, we've sorted out a lot of the diplomacy. We got Trump to agree that there isn't going to be a ceasefire. We've got the backing of our friends. India is going to go on buying our oil. China's just signed a massive gas deal with us. China's agreed to open its financial markets to some of our companies so that we can start to actually, they can start to actually issue R&B bonds.

They can borrow on the Chinese financial markets, which by the way are enormous. I mean, they're very liquid as well. So the Russians, I think, are saying to themselves, we've got through all the diplomacy. It's been very difficult. We've had to fend off calls from our friends last year, the Brazilians and the Indians, who wanted us to agree to a ceasefire. We then had Trump coming along asking us for a ceasefire. We had to fend all of that off.

We had to persuade our friends in Bricks to stick by us over energy. And they have. And the result is that now the ground is clear. And Putin basically as far as I could see said last week, well, we would still like to do a negotiated solution, but really it didn't go to happen. He is not somebody we can negotiate with. He has no legal or constitutional basis for being president of Ukraine. The legal processes in Ukraine are far too complicated to sort out that issue. And besides, the political will to do it isn't there. And I think that the Russians, having come to this conclusion, I think that is the sense that they now have, are now focusing on a military solution. And we saw the first tell-tale signs over the last couple of days that this is coming. So there's reports that the Russians are moving forces, big forces, to conduct a major offensive at some point over the next few weeks.

And bear in mind that when Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian general staff, did his presentation, which we covered about a week ago, he said that the time has come to, work out what the autumn campaign is going to be. So they're starting to move their forces. And they're starting to take more action in the sky, in the air. We had the biggest drone attack ever two days ago. Heavy targets struck in Kiev. Debate about whether a drone strike on the government building in Kiev was intentional or not. Some people in Ukraine say it was. The Prime Minister says it was. Some people say it wasn't. I'm not sure it really matters.

The first attack with a drone, a test run perhaps, checking the defense positions there, or warning, who knows what it was. The first attack, first drone strike on one of the Dnieper bridges. So I get the sense that, yes, Trump is talking about he's going to call Putin this week. the Americans are again trotting out the ideas of secondary sanctions. After the Indian debacle, which was a debacle, one wonders why they bother. The Europeans still talking about sanctions, still meeting, still discussing coalitions of the willing, sending troops to Ukraine, doing all of those kind of things.

But I just get the sense that fundamentally deep down the Russians simply aren't interested anymore. They don't care. They feel that they've got through the most complicated time. They sorted out the negotiations. They've tied up the economic agreements. Lavrov, by the way, who's given more interviews today, in which he seems to be saying much the same things. And Trump will no doubt speak to Putin, no doubt that will. be more talk about moving forward with the negotiations and Putin wants a deal. But I can't help

but think that the reason Trump again wants to call Putin is that he doesn't really want to impose these secondary sanctions, certainly not against China, because he saw what happened in the spring. And at the same time, he doesn't want to be painted as being soft on Putin. So he goes through all this motion again. And it is basically Trump who's stringing the Europeans along, rather than Putin who's stringing Trump along. That is my sense of where we are. So Zelensky, of course, says we're winning if we are not completely conquered.

I mean, things of this kind, that this is really what is, this is really how the war is going. But the realities are, which we can discuss in more detail in a moment that the Ukrainians are losing the war on the ground. They're definitely losing the war in the sky. Everybody can see this. And I think that after the events of last week, I think pretty much everybody can see, even the, certainly the American, certainly Trump can see that secondary sanctions, tariffs, the bone-crushing sanctions that Lindsay Graham are talking about are not going to work. And if they're attempted, they will backfire.

Yeah, Trump is stringing along the Europeans. The Europeans are stringing along the Ukrainians, and Zelensky is declaring victory. Right? Yes, yes. So, I mean, if Zelensky claims victory, he says they won by surviving. They have won. That's what he told ABC News. Then why not just agree to Istanbul Plus and declare a victory?

Correct. I mean, that's basically what he told ABC News. We've survived. So thus we have won. Putin has not been able to take over all of Ukraine. So we've won. We've preserved Ukraine. So why not just negotiate based on Istanbul plus root causes? Where the Russians have said, there's what Lavrov said. They're flexible. He said. I mean, I don't know what that means. No one has asked the Russians what it means. But anyway, he can do that. As far as the U.S. and Trump, I mean, is that their strategy? Is that even a strategy to string along the Europeans, just by time, buy time for what? what, for the Russian victory, for the Ukraine collapse? I mean, what are they buying time for? You ask absolutely excellent questions, because the Russians have a strategy. And I think they've always had a strategy.

I think deep down, ultimately, they've looked at Zelensky, they've looked at the political situation in Kiev. They've always been skeptical that this was going to end in a political settlement. they tried and tried seriously and hard to achieve one in the spring of 2022. They got badly burnt by doing so. I mean, everything went wrong in early 2022 because they basically compromised their military operation at that time by trying to pursue negotiations. So I think that the Russians are very skeptical about the prospects of negotiations. But they did have to work through all of these obstacles to get to the point where they are today.

They have a strategy and it is ultimately a military one. I don't get the sense that anybody else in the West does. As you rightly say, the Americans, Trump looks like he's making it out from one month to the next. So he oscillates. He talks about sanctions one day. about further engagement with Putin the next. He says rude things about Putin one day. He says that Putin is smart and absolutely somebody we can work with the next. He gives every impression of just trying to get through it one month or one week even sometimes at a time. The Europeans

have no strategy at all, either, except the overriding one of keeping the war going so that they can get the Americans involved. And their strategy is not about Ukraine in the end. It is about the United States. It's about keeping the United States committed to Europe, committed to NATO, so that, as you put it many times, absolutely rightly, it keeps the money flow going. And they are starting all kinds of scare campaigns. By the way, just on that, on Sunday, we had A alert communicated in Britain to all mobile phones, you know, preparing us for what might happen. If, you know, there's some bad event happened. We can all guess what it was, but it was the government sent out this alert to all mobile phones across the UK.

I mean, you could see the sort of attempt to keep tensions high. And ultimately, again, it's about keeping the Americans in Europe. is their strategy? And what is Zelensky's strategy? It's, again, not about winning victory in Ukraine. It's not about ending the war, because as you absolutely correctly say, based on what he said in this interview, he can accept Istanbul Plus and call it a victory. He loses the four regions. He doesn't get Ukraine into NATO. he might still be able to get Ukraine into the EU. Putin is, I think, edging away from that, but he's still not ruled it out. He could probably get Ukraine into the EU.

He could do that and he can claim victory. He could say, we survived. That was our great achievement. But we all know that that isn't what he's going to do. He still wants to keep the war going indefinitely because, of course, he wants to keep the money flow going to Ukraine. He wants, in fact, he's getting, he's succeeding. He's getting more pledges of financial and economic support from the Europeans almost

every week. So this is what they're doing. The Americans stringing along the Europeans, the Europeans, as you rightly say, stringing along the Ukrainians, the Ukrainians happy to be strung along, at least Zelensky in his team, happy to be strung along. all of them agitating all the time to get sanctions either increased or whatever. But if you're talking about a strategy for the war, a diplomatic strategy, either to bring about a settlement that will avoid a geopolitical catastrophe,

because that is what defeat in Ukraine would be, or to preserve Ukraine or to do something of that kind, or even to win the war. I mean, there is no strategy that could do that, but even to do that, there is none. Everybody is looking to their own narrow interests. Now, Trump doesn't want to get into an economic war, especially with the Chinese. I think that is becoming increasingly clear. The Europeans don't want the Americans to go away. They're probably very alarmed by reports.

that they're hearing, that the Pentagon is now thinking of focusing on the Western hemisphere and basically abandoning Europe. So for them the priorities to keep the Americans in Europe. And for Zelensky and his people, keep the money coming, that's really all that matters, fill up the suitcases, and then when the moment comes, we're out. Yeah, everyone is just buying time for their own reasons, their own selfish reasons, I would say. The Europeans, they don't care about Ukraine. They don't care at all about Ukraine. This is all about the money flows and Russia and the United States. That's what

it's about their obsession and their hatred towards Russia and the fear of the United States walking away, which is something that is very real now, given the article that Politico published the other day talking about the draft document that Colby. presented to Hexeth, who knows if that's going to actually be the U.S. Department of War. I was going to say the Defense Department. Who knows if that's going to be the actual policy and strategy going forward? The neocons will never allow it. But still, it's got to alarm the Europeans.

It's another signal that the United States, or at least parts of the U.S. government, have no interest in Europe anymore. Right? So, I mean, this is worrying to them. Zelensky, you said it perfectly. Zelensky said in that ABC interview, we have won. So if you have won, then end it. I mean, he said it.

We won. He declared victory. No one's saying that. And even the journalist, what's her name, Radish, Martha Raddish, she didn't grab onto it because she's clueless. She didn't grab onto what Zelensky had said. I declare victory. Great.

Let's end this thing. And Trump, you know, Trump could end it. this whole, the frustrating part is, and even Russia is, because Russia is also playing their games as well for their own interests, because they go along with the fictitious narrative that the Trump team has created, that they're the mediator in all of this. And the Russians go along with it. And Trump continually says it, I'm trying to mediate this. I'm trying to figure out a negotiated settlement to the conflict in Ukraine. I've ended seven wars or 17 wars or 57 Seven wars, whatever number he comes up with.

But everyone knows, well, everyone that has been following this conflict knows this is a U.S. coalition proxy war, as you put it, against Russia. And if Trump really wanted to end this, it could be over in a month. All he would have to do is stop the money flows. The U.S. is still sending money. They're not giving it. They're selling it. They're selling the weapons to Europe, but whatever.

And he could stop the intel, the weapons and the money. And the war would be over in a month. Well, even sooner than that. So, I mean, you know, everyone is, is, is playing, they're all playing games and they're all buying time for their own various interests. You're absolutely correct. I mean, the cynicism, which has always been immense in this conflict, the cynicism now is off the chance.

Nobody, nobody any longer believes that Russia can be defeated. but nobody cares about Ukraine. I mean, it's no longer a question about Ukraine. It never was. This is always about defeating Russia. Everybody knows now that isn't going to happen. The Americans know it. The Europeans know it.

The Ukrainians know it. So given that this is so, why not make peace? And I mean, this is actually, you're absolutely right. I mean, the journalist could have asked Zelensky, well, since you tell me that you've won, since you've achieved your victory, why don't you agree to what the Russians are offering, which falls far short of anything that would compromise the existence of Ukraine? And Trump, if he really wanted to end the war, not only he could do exactly what he said, stop the money flow, but he could pick up the phone to Zelensky and said,

congrats, Vladimir, you've got exactly, you've won the war. you've said so yourself. So all we now need to do is to bring the fighting to a stop. You can agree to the various things that Putin is asking for, which fall far short of the occupation and conquest of the whole of Ukraine, which, as you rightly say, the Russians failed to achieve. So we can agree to that all now, and we can bring the fighting to an end,

and all those people who are still dying don't have to die any longer. But, of course, Trump isn't going to say that. The journalists didn't ask the question. The Europeans aren't going to say that either. Everybody's going to continue with the war exactly the same. And you're absolutely right. There is a cynicism on the Russian side too. And we should not sugar-coated because the Russians talk about the fact that they're willing to compromise,

that they're flexible, that they're willing to negotiate, that they're willing to meet Zelensky and all of that. But fundamentally and ultimately, you get the sense that they don't really believe. in this themselves. And though they go through the motions or the pretense of saying that they do want to negotiate with the Ukrainians, they don't actually really believe in a negotiation with the Ukrainians. They've only said, they only say that, not because the Americans want them to say it, Trump wants them to say it, because the Brazilians, the Indians, even the Chinese, want them to say it. So they go along with this, because they obviously, do believe that a military outcome is the only one that makes any kind of sense for them,

and where we got a sense of what the eventual military outcome that they're looking for is likely to be, because Gerasimov showed us behind himself the map, in which he showed Adessa, Nikolayev, and the entire Black Sea Coast of Ukraine under Russian control. And I suspect we're much closer to that point than people realize, given the realities on the battlefronts. But there is it. I mean, the Russians are cynical, but at least they're in a war. I mean, they are in a war. A war, not so much against Ukraine, but against the entire collective West, because that was how this war really began and what it actually was. It was a coalition war against Russia, in which the Ukrainian soldiers did the fighting. But every other part of it,

the intelligence, the money, the weapons, the command was provided by the West. So given that this is so, the Russians have to maneuver to some degree. And maybe one shouldn't be too critical. But everybody else, everybody else now is behaving with unbelievable cynicism. And it is people who are dying in the meantime. Yeah, my sense with Russia, the United States, is that they want to discuss with the United States, how to move forward on on LNG energy projects in the Arctic. I don't think they're so interested in discussing Ukraine with the United States. That's how I'm reading it. Yeah, they go

through the motions, like you say, they go through the motions of educating Trump about the conflict in Ukraine, the proxy war, the root causes, all of these things. I think they're actually sitting down with Trump and explaining to Trump, you know, how all of this started and the history of it. But when it comes to what deal they want with the United States, what they're looking to negotiate with the United States, I don't believe it's so much focused on Ukraine as it is on let's talk about the Arctic, let's talk about energy projects, let's talk about what we can do with Exxon, gas prom and Exxon, and all of these things, maybe some U.S. businesses investing back into Russia. I mean, do you get that same sense?

I don't think there's any doubt about this. I mean, look who the Russians picked as the person who would lead the discussions on their side, not a veteran diplomat, but Kirill Dimitrieff, who is the head of Russia's direct investment fund, a businessman, an American-educated businessman. He went to Harvard and who is leading the negotiations on the American-educated businessman. He went to Harvard and who has, who is leading the negotiations on the American. coincide, Whitgoth, Steve Whitgov, who is also, by the way, a businessman. And look who else is talking behind the scenes, Exxon and Rosneft, Gasprom and Chevron. They're all talking with each other. They're all having meetings quietly with each other. And Lavrov and Putin over the last a couple of hours, day or so, directly after Trump's true social post about the United States having lost India and Russia to China. They went out in the made statement saying, no, no, not at all. The Americans haven't lost us in any way. Obviously, we want good relations and friendly relations with China. But we are absolutely willing and open for business with the United States.

We are and always have been and continue to be. We have joint interests with them. They're a big energy producer. We're a big energy producer. They need a stable energy price in order to develop their energy complex. We need a stable energy price in order to develop our energy complex. Neither of us, however, wants energy prices to go too high because it will affect our domestic manufacturing. So we have this enormous commonality of interest,

all of these many projects and ideas to discuss. We get on a lot better with American companies, by the way that we do with European ones. They understand us in a way that the Europeans never will. The Americans are a continentally organized economy. We are a continentally sized economy. We have far more cultural affinities in the way we do business with the Americans than we do with the Europeans.

actually heard Russians say this. And the result is that, you know, they keep the door open to the Americans and they look forward to the day when the Americans will come back. When I look at the situation right now, I think the key to coming to a resolution to Ukraine without going the route of the military victory that the Russians have pretty much decided that this is how they're going to go about it. So if you take that out of the equation, And if you say, can we get to a diplomatic solution in Ukraine, the key is Trump. He's the one that's holding everything up. He is the one that is preventing a negotiated diplomatic settlement in Ukraine, as strange as it

is to say it, because he made the correct decision and that he decided to talk to Russia and to Putin, something that Biden refused to do. For some reason, and I don't think anyone can answer this question. I know, I'll ask it to you. Maybe you can answer the question. Everyone has their theories as to why. But for some reason, Trump just can't make the decision. He's holding back.

He can't say, he can't say stop the funding. He can't call Zelensky and say, you're going to negotiate, which he could do it. If he picked up the phone and told Zelenskyy, you're going to get your butt in a plane and you're going to go meet with Putin and you're going to negotiate, Zelensky would do it. Or he would be, he would be gone and there would be someone new. Exactly. Let's be honest with that. That is exactly what Trump could do.

He has that power with him. He doesn't do it. He doesn't need to talk to the Europeans. I don't even know why he's talking to the Europeans. He's talking to them in a group. Now he's going to talk to them one-on-one. I mean, what a waste of freaking time. Really, a waste of freaking time.

But he does it. He does it. He could stop the intel. He can stop the weapons. He can stop the money flow. He can tell Lindsey Graham to buzz off. He can tell Keith Kellogg. Get out of here.

I don't want to hear it from you anymore. I tried your plan. I tried your six months. Freeze. I tried it. You failed. You failed. So you're fired. I mean, he can do all these things. He doesn't do it. So the question is why, I mean, this is, and I'm speaking strictly for a diplomatic resolution, which is why I believe you're right, where the Russians said, you know what, just, let's just go with the military. This guy's not going to, he's not going to find any, any, any way to push a diplomatic settlement forward. I think they've realized that with Trump. So the question, I guess, is why doesn't he do it?

Well, that is an excellent question. And you're quite right because, I mean, he could do it. I think he is in a position to do it. Obviously, there are the neocons. There are the hardliners in the Senate. I think sentiment in the United States, public sentiment in the United States would be overwhelmingly behind him if he did this. I think a lot of the sentiment in the business community would support him.

I think if he really worked on this and sought to build a political coalition within the United States to support his moves to end the war, I think he could do it. And I don't think it would be that difficult. I think all the pieces there are there. The trouble is he doesn't do it. And I think that there are lots of reasons of this. many of them, I suspect, connected with aspects of Trump's own personality. I think he finds it very difficult, for one thing, to accept any outcome to any conflict, which doesn't look like a victory for the United States.

I think he's one of these people who believes that in any conflict, even if it goes about it completely the wrong way, even if it's Joe Biden's conflict, the only satisfactory outcome is one where the US wins. And I think this is, it's difficult for him to get, to get past that. The second is, I think he remains greatly in all, far too much in all of the neocons and their followers in the Senate, Lindsay Graham and all of those people. And I think he finds it very difficult simply to break with them. And that's why he tolerates the Europeans, who it's quite obvious that he despises.

And here I think he gets himself into far more trouble than he should, because he tells the Europeans things that he thinks they want to hear about security guarantees, about sanctions, about ceasefires. and of course they then seize on that and they propel him in directions that he doesn't particularly want to go because they say that he's made those promises and given those commitments and the result is that he looks shifty and vacillating whereas if he took a much stronger and simpler position with them and said to them right from the outset look I was elected to end this war not to continue it. This war has been a complete debacle. It hasn't achieved any of the objectives that people said the idea of crashing Russia economically

is an absurd one. We see that it hasn't worked. Nothing that we can do is going to make it work, giving endless amounts of weapons and money to Ukraine is throwing money into a black hole. If it didn't work with the 2023 summer offensive, then it's never. going to work in the future. The Russians are just getting stronger all the time and they're becoming further and further alienated. We have to end it. Now, the Russians are set out their terms. The terms are not impossible and we should buy into them. Now, you know, if he said that,

the Europeans would be furious, they'd be enormously upset, but as you absolutely rightly said, it would be the end of it and they would have to accept it. The Ukrainians would have to accept it. The Europeans can't go along with this by themselves. And one of the things about the neocons, coming back to the neocons, is that the reason people, these people have this enormous power in the United States is because people like Trump are scared of them. If people stopped being scared of them, if they said to them straightforwardly, everything you have ever proposed, ever suggested, has turned into a disaster from the United States. Why should we

continue to do what you ask us to do when every single project that you launch ends in failure? The American people would understand that, they would support it, business would support it, these people would melt away. But until that day comes, until that happens, we would will continue to see these situations continue. And it's clear to me at the moment that Trump for the moment can't find that courage to do it. The closest he's come was when he went to Saudi Arabia and he gave a speech there in which he said exactly what I think he's privately things about, thinks about the neocons.

But notice that he did that in Saudi Arabia. he doesn't have the courage to say it in the United States. No, and he was put back in his place by the Nio-Kans. Exactly. Yeah. Final question, the military situation. What's going on? Well, it's becoming very, very complicated.

But I mean, the key thing to say is that in every single part of the front lines, we see the Russians not just advancing, but grinding the Ukrainians down. So it looks as if the whole Sivas, Lehman-Kupiansk, part of the front line, is now in freefall. It is collapsing fast. The Russians appear to be in control of much, probably by now, most of Kupiansk. Lots of talk about Ukrainian counterattacks in the area, but they all appear to have been completely unsuccessful. The area, the situation around Sivirsk itself also.

apparently in freefall, Lehman in freefall. So that whole area which the Ukrainians recaptured during their famous autumn 2020 counter-offensive is now tumbling under Russian control. The Russians appear to be operating another kind of meat grinder strategy in Pakarovsk. So as I understand it, they're grinding through Pakrovsk. Again, they clearly control.

a significant part of Pakrovsk itself. Nobody could say exactly how much. But, you know, they're inviting the Ukrainians to do exactly what they did in Backwood. Do you remember in Baghdad? The Ukrainians were deploying, you know, more and more units, more and more troops. It caused them enormous losses. It hugely weakened them ahead of their summer 2023 offensive.

The Ukrainians are doing exactly the same in order to try to hold their positions in Pakrovsk. And by the way, in Konstantinivka, they're feeding in more and more units. Of course, the Ukrainians are in a much weaker position today than they were two years ago in Bahmoud. But we see that the grinding down of the Ukrainians in Pakovs continues, and the Russians continue to advance in every part of Pakrovsk. And in the Zaporosje area, the Russians also continue to advance. And they continue again to advance remorselessly eastwards towards the Dnieper.

And of course, coming back to what we said at the outset of the program, they've launched the first attack now. And it was, you know, a token attack, a drone strike on one of the bridges across the NEPA, the one in Kremlinchuk. they showed that they could hit this bridge. That will spook the Ukrainians, because of course if the Russians destroy all the Dnieper bridges, which they can do at any time,

then the entire Ukrainian army now is marooned on the east bank of the Dnieper. It may be a signal. This may have been a signal to the Ukrainians. We're not far from the point when the Russians might do exactly that. And maybe it's the moment for the Ukrainians either to capitulate and to accept Russian terms and Vizelensky or whoever replaces him to take the plane and fly to Moscow or in the alternative. It could be another signal that the Ukrainians need to think about withdrawing completely from the East Bank,

the whole of Ukrainian territory on the East Bank of the Nibah, what is sometimes referred to as left, Bank, Ukraine. Of course, they won't do that. It's inconceivable that Zelensky would agree to such a thing. And I don't think anybody else in Ukraine at the moment is willing to do this. Okay, we will end the video there. The durand. Dotlocals.com. We are on X and Rumble and telegram. Go to the Duran shop pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. There is a link to the Duran shop in the description box down below. Take care.