The Duran Podcast - Ukraine Running Out of Options as Russia Eyes Sumy and Slavyansk

Episode Date: April 13, 2026

Ukraine Running Out of Options as Russia Eyes Sumy and Slavyansk

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine. We have a ceasefire that is taking place over the Easter break, the Orthodox Easter break, Basca. And we also had a prisoner exchange as well, 1,000 to 41, 1,000 Ukrainian, no, prisoner, sorry, fallen soldiers in exchange, 1,000 Ukraine, foreign fallen soldiers to 41. Russian fallen soldiers, numbers, a ratio that has remained exactly consistent, almost to the number consistent over the past 16 months or 18 months, which really, in my opinion, says a lot to the actual real casualty numbers, the fact that it's remained so consistent over nearly two years, the thousand to 40,000 to 30 ratio. And we still have Russian military advances on the front lines, but we also have Ukrainian drone strikes into Russia.

That continue. So where are we with the conflict in Ukraine? Where should we begin? Well, I think I think – A diplomacy that's on hold. I don't think we need to – we don't need to waste time on the diplomacy because I think that I think that is exhausted, actually. I don't think there's any interest in diplomacy. And if you listen to what Zelensky is saying, he clearly isn't interested in the

diplomacy either. He is still absolutely refusing to withdraw from any place, anywhere, any time, not from Dombas. And so ultimately, the whole thing devolves to a military situation, a military economic situation. So it remains a war of attrition. And I absolutely agree with you about this enormous imbalance in the number of bodies of dead soldiers that the Russians are sending to Ukraine and that the Ukrainians are giving back in return. Now, there's lots of attempts to rationalize this. There's claims in the West that the reason the Russians have many more bodies to give is because they're advancing. And that means that they're finding all of these dead Ukrainian bodies. and that explains why the Russians have so many more of them than the Ukrainians do.

An admission that they're advancing. But that's an admission that they're advancing. So, I mean, that undercuts the entire argument that the front lines are static. And it's strange that people never addressed that. Now, I have no doubt at all that the Russians are inflicting many more casualties on the Ukrainians than the Ukrainians are inflicting on the Russians. And anybody who is looking at this war closely, I think would come to that view. Now, yesterday, I was reading a series of comments by a Ukrainian MP. He said that we can keep this war going for 10 years.

We've got 1.5 million to 2 million people who haven't yet been called up. These are men. We can call them all up. We have about 100 to 200,000 men on the front lines. So if we were to call up all of these draft dodgers, as he put them, put it, then we can keep the war going for 10 years. Now, I'm not going to discuss the absolutely logic and cynicism of that statement. I just make the point that that is an admission that the Ukrainian force on the front lines

numbers around 100 to 200,000 men. The Ukrainians now are decisively outnumbered by the Russian forces. That wasn't always so. In the first two years of the war, the Ukrainians outnumbered the Russians. in the third year of the war, the Ukrainians and the Russians perhaps had approximate parity. Starting from 2024, the Russians began to overtake the Ukrainians. It became the imbalance grew last year, and it's clear that the imbalance is growing even further. there's reports that because the United States is now having to husband equipment

because it's using so much in the Gulf, in the conflict with Iran, that the United States is no longer able to supply Iran with their defense interceptors. There's also reports that Ukraine is starting to run out of armed vehicles, Bradley's and Abrams' tanks and things of that kind because they're not being replaced either by the Americans. We've seen that the Europeans are unable to supply heavy armored vehicles and things of that kind on anything like the scale that they did. So it all now devolves on the Ukrainian side to one thing. one thing that they're staking everything on, which is their drone wall and their drone offensive against the Russians. It's the thing that Zelensky tells himself and tells his people,

it's going to keep the Russians at bay. We may be out of men, we may be out of tanks, we may be out of armored vehicles, we may have little artillery left, but we've still got lots and lots. and lots of drones. And there's no doubt that the drones are a problem for the Russians, but I am going to make a prediction, which is that I think this year, what we're going to start to see is that the Russians are going to get on top of this issue of Ukrainian drones. So there have been Ukrainian drone attacks on all sorts of facilities inside Russia, on refineries, on port facilities, that sort of thing. My sense is that these attacks have done little actual substantive damage.

The drones are small and light. They don't carry a big explosive charge. You know anything about factories, and I know a certain amount about factories. And if you know anything about machine tools, you will know that it takes an awful lot of explosives. and massive firepower to really do big damage to these kind of facilities. So the Ukrainian drone offensive in that respect is probably not doing any very real damage to the Russians.

It's not, by the way, registering on Russian economic data, which I follow closely, not in any significant sense. but it is a problem. It does have a psychological effect in Russia itself. And of course, the Russians also need to deal with drones, Ukrainian drones, on the front lines. And here, by the way, the Ukrainians mostly use the drones they have against the Russian infantry on the front lines, whereas the Russians use their drones differently in order to attack Ukrainian-Leruns. logistics behind the front lines. So there is a difference in philosophy. But I think that what we're going to see is that this year, over the course of last year, over the course of the winter,

you have Russian scientists, Russian laboratories, Russian technicians. You remember we did the program with Schwau some about two weeks ago, a week ago. I think the Russians have been working very hard on working out how to deal with Ukrainian drones. And this year, by midsummer, we're going to start to see the effectiveness of these Ukrainian drones fall, at which point all of the other weaknesses in the Ukrainian military will be exposed. They won't be getting the equipment from Europe and the United States that they did. If there's a major economic crisis in the West, which I have to say is now looking,

increasingly likely the flow of money inevitably, despite whatever political imperative there is to continue it in Europe, the flow of money is going to fall. So without the drones, the Ukrainians are going to look deeply exposed. That's the overall military situation. On the front lines, the Russian advances. Yeah, I mean, they did, Constatinovka, Kupyansk. Okay, okay. So, so we have, we always have, in, there's a pattern in this war, which basically started in 2024. We saw it again in 2025.

It's repeating itself in this year. So we have a Russian offensive, which usually begins after Easter. that offensive rolls on through the spring and summer by late summer it's usually gained its full momentum and force we then start to see lots of places start to fall in the late summer early autumn of 24. We saw Selidevo, we saw Selidovo, Kurachov, Ugladar, all of these places tumble one after the other. In the late autumn, late summer, autumn of 2025, we saw Pakrovsk, Mirnograd, Guglia, Polly. Kupians, the first time round, they all fell one after the other. we are at the start of this cycle now.

Usually what happens is the Russians continue until midwinter. Then there is a major reorganization. New the units are given rest. They're reinforced. There's new equipment sent. They study the lessons of the previous year. and here I've talked about the drones. They then have to wait out the spring thaw, the Rasputitsa,

and we're now almost up to autumn, sorry, up to Easter, and then after Easter, I think we're going to start to see the Russian offensive restart again. We are already seeing the first indicators of this. So the Russians have been very active in northeastern Ukraine, in Kharkov and Sumi regions. And here it seems Ukrainian resistance is very light. I think that because of all of the emphasis on Dombas and Zaporosia,

the Ukrainians have deployed most of their forces there. So they don't have strong forces in the north. The Russians are now very close to, an attack on Sumi, the city of Sumi in the north. They're not far from Sumi. Sumi is important for the Russians if they are planning an operation against Kharkov city, which is to the south, or if they're planning ultimately an operation towards Kiev, because Sumi is on the main road to Kiev. The Russian army in 2022 trundled through Sumi on its way to Kiev

and actually occupied Sumi for about a day, but this time obviously it would be different. So I think there's a high chance that we will see in a big operation in the north may be centered on Sumi. And over the last few weeks, the Russians have been gaining a lot of territory around Sumi. they seem to be moving towards an encircment of that city. So further south, this very complicated battle that's happened around Kupiansk seems to be now coming finally to its end.

The Ukrainians claim that they'd conducted all kinds of counterattacks in Kupians, that they recaptured the town. Always they make those claims, and photos appear of Russian soldiers, where they say that they've recaptured territory. The Russians clearly still have positions in Culpians on the west bank of the Osco River. But if you remember in the autumn, the Russians claimed that they'd encircled a grouping of Ukrainian soldiers on the east bank of the Osco River. Well, what we can now say is that the Russians now control the entire territory in Kupiansk on the East Bank. So they're now well positioned to advance westwards from Kupiansk as part of whatever

operations they want to carry out in Kharkov region, either again towards Kharkov or westwards to Slaviansk. And, well, the main battles, the really big battles that have been happening, now and where we see the greatest fighting taking place, it seems to me are in three places. One is near Slaviansk, which is the northern city that is still under Ukrainian control in Donbass. The Russians look like they're about to attack and capture an important, a small town called Araya Alexandrovka, which is on a hill. And you can control the communication. between Slaviansk and Kramatosk, if you capture this place.

There's been a major battle. There's been underway in Konstantinovka. This has been the main battle through the winter. It's been a very tough battle, a little bit like Pakrovsk and before that, Bacharovs, but it's not gained the kind of attention that these two places, the battles in these two places did. the Russians now seem to have captured the main built-up area in Constantinivka and the industrial zone. So it is likely that over the next couple of weeks, the rest of Konstantinivka will come under Russian control. And the third big battle is taking place in Zaporosia region.

And the Russians, that was where the Ukrainians carried out some counterattacks over the course of the winter. It doesn't look as if there's counter-attacks. were at all successful. And the next target for the Russians will be the town of Orejov. And I would have thought that sometime in the late spring, early summer, the battle of O'Rejov will begin. After the fall of O'Rejov, the only city left in Zaporosia to capture is the city of Zaporosia itself. That brings the Russians to the Nipa in central Ukraine. we've discussed in many programs how that would be an existential crisis for Ukraine, an even bigger crisis than say if the city of Kharkov were to fall.

Right. And Zabarajar, Kharkov, Slaviansk. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Final question, Putin. What's going on with Putin? Is he still laying low? He is still lying very low.

He is avoiding all comments. all discussions. It's been left to Medvedev and Gerasimov to make all the statements. Medvedev made a very important statement, I think, which has gone completely unreported, almost unnoticed in which he said that Russia cannot allow Ukraine to enter the EU. I mean, the Russian position has always been Ukraine cannot enter not. NATO, but Ukraine entering the EU is okay. Medvedev has now said, under no circumstances should Ukraine even be allowed to enter the EU. Now, what Medvedev usually says eventually becomes Russian policy.

I'm surprised that people haven't noticed this, this statement of Medvedevs, because I think that is very soon going to become formal Russian policy. And so Putin lies low. He has confirmed this Easter ceasefire. The pressure for this ceasefire, these ceasefires during religious holidays, comes overwhelmingly from the Orthodox Church, by the way, the Orthodox Church wants Christians to celebrate these holidays in peace.

Putin is always very, very, he listens to what the Orthodox Church tells him. This particular ceasefire looks like it's going to be very short. I mean, it's going to be, it's going to last basically a day or two days. So it's not going to change the military situation in any significant. significant way. But that's all he's doing. At the moment, as I said, he's leaving it to people like Medvedev and Gerasim of the chief of staff to say things and to set the policy and to make all the big announcements. At some point, this has to end probably when the serious battle for Slavians Kramatoos.

begins. All right. We talked about the whole EU issue about a year and a half ago, maybe even two years ago. We talked about the EU issue and it looks like those predictions are coming to pass. Yeah. I remember those videos. Yeah. Anyway, again, it surprises me that people have not noticed this.

Maybe they don't want to talk about it. They don't want to talk about it. I mean, a lot of people, by the way, Brussels noticed, I'm sure. I'm sure they did. But as I said, even some people who, you know, are very sympathetic to the Russians, but who want to see the war end in some way, they've been saying, well, you know, we've got to accept Ukraine will never join NATO. By the way, Ruta has just said that there's no way that Ukraine is ever going to join NATO.

So that seems to have been off the table at the matter. But they say even if Ukraine cannot join NATO, the Russians, are still saying that Ukraine can join the EU. We should press forward with that. and that's one of the ways in which we're going to achieve peace. What they haven't noticed, as I said, is that that Russian concession is now being taken off the table. It's not been finally confirmed in any official statement from Putin himself. But Medvedev is saying it.

And if you read Medvedev's statement, he's absolutely categorical about this. He said that Ukraine has never joined the EU because it is not an economic association anymore. It is becoming a political military alliance, which is hostile to Russia. Yeah, well, okay. We talked about this in detail over many, many videos a long time ago. Yeah, we said this is what's going to happen. Yeah. You know, the EU became NATO and NATO became the EU.

Yes. So I mean, you know. My guess, just to go forward is we're not going to see any negotiations for a couple of weeks, any substantive negotiations for a couple of weeks. When it looks as if Dombas is about to fall, when Sloviansklaanthorvsk started collapse, perhaps after they collapse, we're going to see, I suspect, Putin then come back in force. there's going to be a final ultimatum or something of a big ultimatum a big statement from Putin saying look dombas has gone but we got all of these other outstanding issues to think about NATO membership EU membership rights of Russians in Ukraine status of the orthodox church all of these things all of this has now to be addressed

and it will take in effect the form of some kind of an ultimatum, inconceivable that Zelensky will ever concede it. And, well, when that ultimatum is not met, then I think we're going to start to see more big Russian moves. Only I think at that point, the objectives will not be, obviously Don Bess and Safferogian-Herson, they will become the desert and perhaps Kiev. Okay.

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