The Duran Podcast - Ukraine Surovikin line fails. NATO threatens Kaliningrad

Episode Date: July 30, 2025

Ukraine Surovikin line fails. NATO threatens Kaliningrad

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the deteriorating military situation in Ukraine, deteriorating for the Ukraine military. Things are accelerating quickly in Pakrovsk in the favor of Russia. The entire Tripopetrovsk region, actually we're seeing Russia advanced. They're in the region now and they're advancing. It looks like we're going to get some sort of urban warfare unfolding in Pakrovs very soon. Yes. And things are no better anywhere else in the front lines in Ukraine.

What is your assessment of the military situation right now? I think you're absolutely right. And I think there's a fundamental problem, which is that the Ukrainian army now no longer has enough men. Those men that it does have are tired and not just tired, but jaded. I mean, they've been fighting for a very, very long time. recruits that are sent to the front lines are no longer adequately trained and equipment from the West is drying up, not because the West doesn't want to send equipment, but because it's so short now and its production figures can't keep up with Ukraine's needs.

And this is starting to shape the battlefield. The fighting in Prokrosk is evolving much faster, I think, that most people expect it. There is fighting going on inside Pachrovsk itself. We are not being provided with a huge amount of information about this. But that's even more dramatic is that the Russians are pushing north beyond Pachrovsk, outflanking the Ukrainian positions in the three cities of Slaviansk, Ramatosk, and Konstantinovka. And apparently they are not meeting resistance there. We're getting more and more reports about the Russians advancing, reaching fortified positions that the Ukrainians have built and finding nobody there to man them

so that they're able to occupy them and they consolidate, then they continue to move north. There just isn't the resistance that they used to be. And I understand that south of Bakrosk, in the NEPRO-Petrosk region, it's turning out to be something of the same story. Again, the Russians advance. They find that they're advancing faster and further than they anticipated. They then stop, basically to re-equip and reorganize, and then they advance again because resistance is minimal. And again, they come across fortified positions, which the Ukrainians have in effect abandoned. So this is the reality of the world. war at this time. It's difficult to say how long this is going to continue for, but obviously

Ukraine cannot continue to fight a war for very long in this way. How is Ukraine going to, I mean, how did they deal with this? They're out of soldiers, or they're running, well, they're definitely out of good soldiers, trained soldiers. They're They're out of money, out of weapons. It's obvious that the European Union is not able to sustain. Ukraine, they need the United States. That's clear now. And Zelensky is, as all of this is unfolding, Zelensky is dealing with this whole anti-corruption

debacle. Yes. How does it make it through the next six months with all of this? The word that you're getting is that they're trying to create. a new defense line to the west of where the current defense line is. So they're trying to build fortified positions and trenches and things of this kind. A lot of these Russian missile and drone attacks that you are seeing happen every night now appear to be attempts to disrupt by Ukraine to create this defense line. And we're talking defense line. I mean,

they're attempt to create something like the Suravikin line. You remember, this enormous belt of defenses that the Russians created in Zaporosier and Khasson region, which defeated the Ukrainian offensive then. I don't think the Ukrainians are going to be able to do it. I don't think they have the materials to do it. I don't think they have the funding to do it. The Ukrainian budget is in catastrophic deficit. Ukraine itself is in default.

I mean, S&P has given it a deep. rating, which is a default rating, because they missed debt repayments in June. So they have been depending now entirely on the EU to cover their funding because the US is pulling out of that. And the EU's ability to keep funding them is declining. So I don't think they're going to be able to do this. I don't think they have the materials to do this. I don't think they have the heavy machinery to do it.

And I don't think they will have the manpower both to complete this defense line or the manpower in their army to hold it. So my guess is that at some point in the next six months, someone, if they're rational, are going to make the decision to pull Ukrainian forces back beyond the NEPA. Because to me, that is clearly where this event is going. These events are taking us. What do you make of the statements from the Turkish foreign minister and from Ukraine as well, actually, that they are very close to getting a high-level summit between Zelensky and Putin

with Trump present and also with European Union leaders present as well, Macron and Mertz and Ursula? The Turkish foreign minister said that they're close. Zelensky the other day said that they're. they're going to have this happen. And Trump was also speaking to the media and said that they're going to get this summit meeting. Russia's, I mean, Peskov said, you know, we'll have a meeting with top Ukrainian officials with Zelensky. But it has to be a meeting when everything is ready to be signed, when the capitulation and the surrender treaty is ready to be signed.

That's pretty much what Peskopf was getting at. But from the other side, we're getting a lot of messages that this is going to happen. What are your thoughts on this? Well, this is very like what happened earlier this year. If you remember, after Trump was inaugurated, you know, we were told repeatedly ceasefires just a few weeks away. There's going to be a ceasefire by Easter, than a ceasefire by May. And all sorts of people were lining up and talking about this.

Trump was talking about this. I remember Fidane, the Turkish foreign minister, talking about this. Everybody expecting that the ceasefire would come. And of course, it didn't. And the Russians made it very clear eventually that they weren't interested in a ceasefire. It seems to me that it's the same this time. Again, just as the Russians never completely slammed the door shut on all the ceasefire talk. Perhaps they were wrong, by the way, to do that, just saying.

But anyway, they never did. They said, yes, you know, we're ready for a ceasefire, provided the conditions for it, can be agreed. And of course, they never were and they couldn't be. So they're saying the same about a summit meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Yes, you know, we're not saying no, but first all sorts of other things need to be done to get us there. and people are not listening to these qualifications that the Russians are providing. And instead they're seeing the fact that the Russians are talking about, yes, maybe a summit meeting will one day take place. My own sense is that the Russians are in no hurry to achieve a summit meeting between Putin and Zelensky at this time.

I suspect there's an awful lot of wishful thinking about this. Turkey, let's face it, has been backing Ukraine in this conflict. It supplied weapons. It doesn't want to see Russia again controlled of Ukraine's entire Black Sea Coast again. It doesn't want the Russians in control of the Dessa. It doesn't want any of those things. So Turkey wants to see an end of hostilities with the Ukrainian still in control of the Black Sea Coast. Trump wants to avoid a Saigon, Afghanistan-style debacle in Ukraine. Zelensky

wants to survive. So they're all taking the fact that the Russians aren't rejecting the idea of a ceasefire of a summit meeting and are hoping that they can persuade the Russians to agree to one. But at the moment, I have to say, I don't see any sign of it. I don't see any sign of it. I don't see any indication from the Russians that that is where they want to go. The drones from Ukraine to Russia? Well, they continue. Almost every day. Quite plausibly.

Putin had to cancel the Navy Day celebrations as well. Yes, I know. Absolutely. Absolutely. Absolutely. And quite plausibly, quite probably, we're going to see missile strikes. We talked about this in the previous program that we're going to start to see. at the end of this month, the next couple of days, maybe next week, maybe. Who knows? Maybe this week.

We're going to see long-range missile strikes from Ukrainian territory against Russia. They do not change the overall situation. They don't change the balance of forces. They cause some disruption in Russia, but they don't affect the state of the economy there. They don't affect the level of military buildup. In fact, if anything, they probably play to the Kremlin's advantage in that they can continue to say to people in Russia, look, they're not pointing us even negotiating, because these people are intent on attacking us. So, again, drone attacks, missile strikes.

if they do effective damage, they might provoke a reaction, we've discussed that, a strong reaction from the Russians. But if they continue at this level, they will change nothing at all. I think another sign, by the way, that there is growing alarm and nervousness about the situation are these statements that are coming out of NATO about an attack on Kalining. which are, you know, off the scale, reckless. And we've had General Donahue talking about NATO, taking control of Kaliningrad in the space of a day, faster than the Russians can imagine happening and all of that.

All of this, I think, is intended to keep the Russians off balance and worrying about other threats, because everybody, General Donahue, can see that the reality of the military situation in Ukraine is that it is deteriorating fast in exactly the way that you said at the start of the program. By the way, the Russians have responded to those threads towards Kaliningrad, and they made statements which quite straightforwardly say this time that if there is an attack on Kaliningrad, the Russians will use nuclear weapons to defend it if they have to. So this time it's not ambiguous. Who would even launch that attack into Kaliningrad?

Because the UK is going to be attacking China very sooner. They're going to be defending Taiwan according to the defense minister Healy, right? The UK is ready to defend Taiwan should China attack. So the UK, the powerful UK military is going to have its hands tied up in the South Pacific. Who are we talking about here? Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, France, Italy. Who's going to make a move on Kaliningrad? The United States, is Trump going to put boots on the ground in Kaliningrad? Well, it is a bluff and a stupid bluff, because nobody takes it seriously.

But it should also be seen for what it is, a sign of growing nervous. because, as I said, the military people can see the realities of what's playing out in Ukraine itself. I do think the Russians take this threat seriously, at least that seriously, though they can't obviously ignore it. By the way, just to make a further point, I mean, we constantly hear about the Russians wanting to threaten and attack European NATO territory. The first explicit threat, by a military officer in terms of attacking someone's territory is being made by NATO officer against Russia. Just just saying, I mean, it's just a point just to make. But anyway, I think that we should see these threats essentially as reflections of the growing worry

and nervousness and fear in NATO that Ukraine is going down. Yeah, it shows in the protests, Alexandria. They're chosen in what's happening in Kiev and not only Kiev in many cities. They're very upset with Zelensky. They're very upset with Yermak. And when I mean they, I'm not talking about everyday Ukrainian citizens. I'm talking about the people that are working at the NGOs and are working at these anti-corruption agencies. These are the people that are getting their salaries from the collective West.

It's the collective West that have sent them out onto the streets to protest. Zelensky's power grab of the anti-corruption. agency. Yes. So, you know, the panic is growing on all sides of Project Ukraine, whether you're talking about Kiev, what you're talking about Zelensky, Europe, the United States, some very belligerent statements from Marco Rubio towards Russia. And China, of course, that is China.

That's winning the war for Russia now. Yes. This is going to increase over the next six months. And this is the other thing to say. At some point over the next few weeks, Pakrovsk is going to fall. There was a video film by a Ukrainian journalist working for the Kiev Independent,

which is, to say, clearly, a very, very anti-Russian, very pro-Ukrainian media outlet. I mean, it's based in Kiev. Anyway, he went there and he was basically saying, this is my last trip to Pakrath. So, Pakrowski is going to fall. and that is you only need to look at a map to see how it relates to all of the other places. Once that happens, that is when the panic is going to start to guess into the open.

We're going to see panic and hysteria and anger and threats and tantrums like we've never seen up to now. after Avdeyevka fell last year, that was when Macron first floated the idea of sending NATO troops into Ukraine, to fight in Ukraine. We had a panic then. That was when the decision was made to first launch missile strikes against Russia from Ukraine. The panic that's going to follow, the fall of Pakarovsk, is going to be on a completely different scale to the panic we saw last year. Yeah, and just to wrap up the video, and they're going to tell Trump, Lindsey Graham, and the Europeans, a Stamer is going to be, a Stammer meeting with Trump is going to tell him, you know, that you can't have Ukraine be your Afghanistan. Yes. Yes.

And I think that's going to panic Trump as well. Yes. Panic the Trump White House. Yes. And who knows what they're going to do when that panic sets in. When that panic is realized that we're about to get. an Afghanistan debacle times 10. Yes.

All right. Times 100. Times 100, yeah. Again, these are going to be very, very stormy times. I suspect the autumn is going to be stormy altogether because I would not be surprised if we see a renewed crisis at the Middle East. I've been talking about it in my programs on my own channel. Trump is talking about it.

Absolutely. And we could see a storm. over Ukraine as well. So, as I said, it's going to be a very, very nail-biting time over the next few weeks and months, but probably from September, things are going to start moving very quickly and in very, very frightening and alarming ways. What I will say is this, if you really want to stabilize the situation, then there is a way, actually, pull your troops out of the Dombas and begin negotiations, resume the negotiations

in Istanbul, but this time talking about Putin's 14th June 2024 terms. I think it, I mean, the point is up to now. They've never addressed them. But the alternatives to doing that, and by the where you shook your head and I agree with you, I don't think they will. I think hell will freeze over before they ever do that. But what I always like to do personally is point out that there are rational alternatives to doing all the incredibly dangerous and frightening things that we've been talking about. And there are ways to avoid panic. And of course, the thing about panic, I mean, I've had to work with people in the state of panic many, many times. the thing is when people are in panic they do wild and crazy and dangerous things i mean all sense of

proportion and sense of balance and reality tends to get lost and that's something also to bear in mind but i mean there are rational alternatives to this i don't any more than you expect them to be followed but i think it's worth pointing it out yeah yeah they're they're not going to think rationally Okay, yeah. We've gotten over this many, many times. Their decision is to, it's better to let the whole thing burn than to try and save the country. That's the decision that they've taken.

Yes. Yeah. Anyway, all right. We will end to the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, Bitch, shoots, telegram, and rock fin, and go to the Durant shop, pick up some merch. There is a link in the description box down below.

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