The Duran Podcast - Ukraine trapped, operational crisis Donbass

Episode Date: August 15, 2025

Ukraine trapped, operational crisis Donbass

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the current military situation in Ukraine. I imagine we're going to focus on the Pakrovs section, Pakrovsk, Konstantinovka, and the Russian breakthrough, the catastrophe in Pakrovsk. Let's talk about it. Well, indeed, I mean, when the first reports came through about the Russian advance north of Pakarovsk, I had to say, I thought to myself, this can't be true. I mean, the speed of the advance in this area has been astonishing. And we've seen a whole set of important villages.

And I mean, all right, there are villages, and people always dwell on this, but there are villages that lead to certain positions for one after the other. That did seem astonishing. And, of course, it also brought the Russians onto all the main key supply roads. roads in this area. So when I've heard about this, I said, can this really be the case? And I think a lot of people were asking the same questions. Well, as the hours and days have passed, it's clear that it is the case, that there has been a major Russian breakthrough in this area. And there's two things to say about it. Firstly, it dooms the military grouping, the Ukraine, military grouping that is defending Pachrovsk. Now, that's not the same as talking about

Pachrosk, the place. It was clear that the Russians were going to capture Pachrovsk. I mean, that was already obvious. But what would happen to the military force, the Ukrainian military force that is defending Pachrosk, that was not so clear. It looked as if it would still had good opportunities to withdraw. And I thought that probably eventually it would withdraw. That is now looking extremely difficult, perhaps even impossible, in which case we have a cauldron for the Ukrainian force that's defending Pachrosk. There's lots of speculations as to how big it is, but it's obviously a sizable force made up of more than one or two brigades. and apparently there's a number of leopard two tanks inside the city.

Anyway, they are essentially encircled and they have little chance of retreat. But beyond that, once Prokhovsk is ended, the Russians are now so far to the north that we are now looking at the very real possibility over the next couple of weeks. of a larger encirclement, first of Konstantinovka, where the situation is also turning critical for the Ukrainians in many places, but also for the entire Ukrainian force that's defending Slaviansk, Kramatosk, further north, this chain of cities, which even the Institute for the study of war says form Ukraine's shield against further Russian advances. So this is an operation, crisis on a scale that we have simply not seen in this war up to now.

I mean, Ukraine is looking at a disaster on a scale that we have not seen. And let's say there's 5,000, 10,000 people in Prakosk who are defending the city, if they all forced to surrender. Ukraine doesn't have the means anymore to make up for the loss of that size of forces. it can't replace them. They're already facing huge shortages of manpower and of equipment right across the conflict line. They cannot afford to lose men at this level. And of course, if Slovianskramatosk is encircled and the men inside it are encircled as well, then basically it's the end for Ukraine. It's the end of Ukraine's ability to continue the war.

In the Dombas. In the Dombas. In the Dombas. What have you heard about the reports which claim that Zelensky and Siersky are sending reinforcements in the form of Azov National Guard soldiers? And they're sending them there to stabilize the situation. What have you heard about that? Well, there's no doubt about it. This is true. I mean, the Russians have confirmed it. There was an interview given by Dennis Buschelin, who is the head of the Donets regional government. And he said that this is exactly what the Ukrainians are doing.

and the Russians expect Ukrainian counter-attacks in this area. The point is that the Ukrainians having to redeploy forces to try to stabilize this crisis north of Bakrosk means that they're having to pull forces away from other parts of the front lines at the moment, the very same moment, when those other front lines are also Berkeley. So you risk transferring your crisis from one point on this enormous contact line to another point. The 12th Azov Brigade, which is one of the forces that has been rushed to the Prakosk area, has been taken from the defences around Konstantinovka. And that is likely to create a crisis in Konstantinovka as well.

The other thing to say is, it's far from clear that these forces, which don't appear to be particularly big, are going to be able to stabilize the situation. The stories that we hear is that the Russian force around Prakosk now numbers around 110,000 men. If we're talking about the forces that the Ukrainians are redeploying, we're talking about perhaps 10,000 men in total, they might be able to hold some positions for a while, but they might not be able to hold them for very long. And even the Azov brigade has suffered many, very heavy losses over the course of this war. It's apparently not the highly motivated, very well-trained force that it was earlier in the war either. So, you know, they're redeploying troops to this area because

they had no choice because, as I said, this is a massive operational crisis. But it might not stabilize the situation. And even if it does, it comes at the cost of weakening the Ukrainians in all sorts of other places. Yeah. Yeah, that's true. What do you make of the reports which claim that Zelensky is going to try something in the Bryansk region? Another type of Kursk incursion. Do you think that's possible? It is entirely possible because we are talking about a leader who is both desperate and who has repeatedly shown that he has a tendency to gamble. Now, to launch another offensive like that into Russia at this time when the entire front lines in Dombas are collapsing would be not just reckless, it would be completely irrational.

It would be delusional. First of all, such an offensive at this time would almost certainly fail. I mean, the Kusk offensive ultimately failed and failed catastrophically. To repeat that all over again, to weaken your forces in Dombas, in central Ukraine, even further at a moment like this would be, I mean, it would be lunacy. It's something that Zelensky might do because, as I said, he's a gambler and he probably says to himself at some level, look, even if I continue to do the rational thing, send my troops to Prakosk, to the Prakosk area, try to hold the lines there, I'm only buying myself days or weeks, whereas if I can pull off something in Brijansk, then that might transform the whole situation, except, of course, that it won't. But it's the kind of calculation that he might make.

So what happens if Putin agrees to some sort of a pause in the hostilities? Like say he gets to an agreement with Trump for whatever reasons. Does that stop the Russian advance? I mean, well, that's it as the Russians are making gains that I don't think we've ever seen. I mean, the momentum is very much in their favor. Does Putin stop that momentum? I mean, what would the military response, the Russian military response be to such an agreement? I mean, the Russian military would be absolutely furious about it. I think they would be beside themselves with anger. And I think that before Putin were to agree to any such thing, he would have been consulting with the Russian military. When the talks in Istanbul resumes, the military insisted that they have representatives, important representatives, as part of the Russian negotiators.

team and the Russian negotiating team has important military officers participating in the negotiations. Before the Istanbul talks, Putin spoke that had a whole meeting in which all of the top military commanders were involved and were briefed and made their own views absolutely clear to Putin. And Putin has himself repeatedly promised them that he's not going to take steps that will interrupt their momentum unless there are fundamental concessions from the Ukrainians, including pulling out from all the four regions. So I just don't think this is going to happen. Now, with Putin, you can never be completely sure, because he can also be unpredictable as well.

But I have to say, if Putin was suddenly to announce at the meeting in Alaska that he's agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, It would be so completely at odds with everything he and the Russians have been saying over the last couple of months that I think that there would be shock in Russia and a lot of criticism of Putin. And I wonder whether it would even stick. Right. So the only way there would be some sort of a pause or ceasefire would be if Trump agreed to Istanbul Plus. In other words, the entirety of the Ukraine military were to leave. the oblasts, the four oblasts, without fighting, they would just leave and then the Russians would move in. That would be acceptable also to the military, you believe, if that was agreed on, which is a long shot. I mean, I don't think that's going to happen. But if it were to happen,

the military would be okay with that. Oh, absolutely. I mean, the Putin said that. He said back on the 14th of June, in 2024 in his speech to the foreign ministry, and this is obviously agreed with the military in advance, that if the Ukrainians withdraw from the four regions, Russia will agree to a ceasefire. In fact, what he actually said, I want to be precise, what he said was if the Ukrainians withdraw from the four regions and pledged that they're not going to join NATO, then there would be a ceasefire. But I think if the Ukrainians agreed to withdraw from the four regions and Trump were to say that Ukraine is not going to join NATO, then I think Putin would probably

be able to sell a ceasefire, a temporary ceasefire on that basis, on the basis that there would be follow-up negotiations as well. My own view, and this is, perhaps I'm going out on a limb here. But I think that if the earlier reports we were getting from, you know, the United States, that if the Ukrainians agreed to withdraw from Donbass, from all of this key line of cities, Putin might say a ceasefire in that case, and we'll sort out Zaporosia and her son later. I think that would just about stick. I think the military could live with that because Donbass was their original mission

and these cities, this fortified line of cities, Slavians, Kramatosk, Konstantirivka and Pakrovsk are strategically so important that gaining control of them in that kind of way would put the Russians in a position where they would be in a position eventually to sort out in the way they wanted, Heron and Zaporozsche. But I'm not sure that, you know, it would still be controversial. But I think it would worse.

It would go against the Constitution, wouldn't it? It would get well, the Russians would still insist eventually that the Ukrainians pulled out of Zaporosia and Herson. But they might agree to a temporary truth. if the Ukrainians simply said that they would pull out of Donbass. I still think it would be controversial, and I don't think that that's what they would do. But I don't believe.

I absolutely do not think that Putin is in any mood, and that the Russians are in any mood, to agree to a simple ceasefire on the existing contact lines, which is what Zelensky and the Europeans are demanding. I think that is absolutely out of the question. I don't think that's going to happen. Yeah. Yeah.

You're saying that maybe. Maybe. Maybe. The minimum would be what you said. Yeah. Pulling out of Dombas and dealing with Herzson, getting back, getting back to Herzlera, of course, with the Russians saying that eventually, according to our constitution, we're also going to have the entirety of those two Oblasts as well.

as well. But you get to that later. That's basically the minimum that might be sold. It would be very controversial. And some people in the military wouldn't like it. But I think if Putin really wanted to bend over backwards and accommodate Trump, if Trump were to make that proposal, I can just imagine that Putin might say, okay, and he might calculate that.

enough people in the military would see the sense of it and would go along with it. By the way, I mean, these are speculations on my part. I mean, I want to stress that. I'm not saying that that's what Putin is thinking or what the military would agree. You're going off of the reports that we've been getting in regards to Wiccoff's trip to Moscow and various other reports, which have been saying something along those lines. Of course, you know, we're looking at it from one side. There's the other side as well, which is, you know, the Europeans, Ukrainians, Zelensky, the banderites.

Yeah. I mean, they would never allow such a thing in any case. They would immediately reject it. Absolutely. Absolutely. Yeah. In which case, if you're Trump, then you could probably walk away. Exactly.

Exactly. I mean, Zelensky force has already rejected. Well, he's already rejected it. Well, he says that publicly, but if this was... was agreed in Anchorage, then I imagine that Trump would then be negotiating with Zelensky, telling Zelensky, you're going to accept this or else we are walking away. I mean, that would be the ultimate and that would be given to the Europeans and to Ukraine. Yes.

In which case, what do they do? Well, what indeed do they do? And that's what we would have to see. Of course, the Ukrainians are saying that even if the Americans did walk away, they would not accept it. But that's what they're saying at the moment. If Trump and Putin agreed to that in Alaska, then of course we're in a completely different situation. But Trump has said that that's not what he's looking at at the moment.

And I don't think that we are going to get any kind of agreement on anything like that. I mean, I think when Trump is saying that this is a get-to-know-you meeting, a meeting where the two men meet, understand each other, bounce ideas of each other, try to work a way forward. I think that's much more likely what this meeting is going to be. Yeah, I agree. I agree. It's speculation. But you know what? Putin's going to bounce off the idea of what is happening on the front line.

He's going to bounce off the reality of what is happening on the front line. he's going to bounce off the next steps of the Russian military based on the gains that they're making in Dombas and based on the fact that they are going to capture Pachrosk any day now. Yes. And Trump's going to hear it directly from Putin. And of course, they are going to talk about Istanbul Plus, June 2024. I mean, these are ideas that they are going to talk about. Absolutely. A very important clue.

way, is if Trump and Putin have, you know, private conversations, in other words, if they go off walking together with just interpreters with them, because that's how ideas do get bounced of best without the delegations present. And I would have thought over the course of that walk if it takes place, Putin will make another point to Trump, which is, you know, better hurry up, make your deal quickly with me. Because in a few weeks, I will not. only have Bakrowski, I will have the whole of Dombast. And then your leverage, which is already looking diminished, is going to be even less. Just saying. Well, not only that, you also have Sumi, you have Kharkiv, and then you also have Herson as well. Exactly. Exactly. Excerpt.

And so it's not only don't, I mean, Donbast right now seems like it's, I mean, Bakrowski is a given, it seems, I mean, that's, that seems like it's pretty much wrapped up in the next couple of weeks. I'm just saying this now. Even Ukrainian commentators are admitting that Pakravsky is lost. They're also, by the way, talking now about a crisis, a similar crisis in Kupians, which hardly anybody is talking about, because even though Kupians is important, actually. And we see other problems beginning to develop in other places like Leman and Sivask and all of those places. I mean, this is a major crisis that the Ukrainians are facing. And they have no solutions to it because the West is out of weapons and the Ukrainians are out of men.

And there is no way you can work your way around that. And that's what Putin's going to tell Trump. Exactly. Exactly. All right. We will end the video there. The duran.com. We are on X.

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