The Duran Podcast - US diplomacy disaster. Ukraine military disaster

Episode Date: October 28, 2025

US diplomacy disaster. Ukraine military disaster

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Ukraine, and let's start things off with the situation on the front line, the encirclement of Pakrovsk, Mirnokrad, and Kupyansk, which is in the Kharkov region. This was announced by Yerasmov as well as Putin. There are still some analysts on the Ukraine side of things who do not believe this. Zelensky talked about how Russia has advanced into the city of Pakrovs and the situation is critical, but the collective West is avoiding the word encirclement. But in my opinion, if Putin and Yerazimov publicly come out with statements saying that this is an encirclement and they place an ultimatum on the U.S.M. Ukraine soldiers to surrender, or else I will bet that this is indeed a catastrophic situation

for the Ukraine military and that they are indeed trapped in both regions. Anyway, your thoughts on this situation? I'm completely in agreement with you, and I would add further this. We both follow the military developments very closely. We've been seeing how the battle for Bakrowski has played. out since it began in earnest in August, the fact that there has been an announcement by Gerasimov and Putin that there is an encirclement in Pekrosk, I think I can safely say, has come as no surprise to either of us. I don't think it's come as much of a surprise to most

of the people who have been following the battle closely. The problem is most people don't follow the battle closely. And if you're talking about media in the West, and I suspect Western governments, they over-rely on what the Ukrainians have been telling them. The Ukrainians since August have been claiming that they have had the situation in Pukovsk under control, that they've been carrying out successful counter-attacks, north-east of Pakhrovs, that the Russians are struggling to catch a Pachrosk. They've said that the battle for Pachrosk has been underway for 15 months, which is not true, by the way.

I mean, the Russians came very close to Pachrosk 15 months ago, but their assault on Prakosk only began in the summer. But the Ukrainians say these things. The Institute for the Study of War says these same things. People in the West tend to follow these stories. I don't myself have any doubt at all. Everything that I have been seeing and hearing, not just from Russian sources, but by the way, from the more dissident Ukrainian sources as well, all confirm that this picture that Gerasimov

and Putin have outlined is true. And Peskov, Putin's spokesman, put the number of Ukrainian troops who are encircled in the Pachrovsk, Mironagravsk, Mirnogra. area at 5,500, and I think that's probably roughly true also. I mean, Gerassim gave a huge list of the Ukrainian military units that are some of whose elements are trapped in this battle. He said up to 31 battalions are trapped in this battle. Well, by this point in the war, Ukrainian battalions are short of men. And, well, 15,000 men would be what you would expect if the battalions were up to strength, but they're not up to strength.

Five and a half thousand men trapped in Bakrowski, I think is probably about right. And we've discussed in many programs how important Bakrowski is, how it is the big piece on the chess board that the Russians want to capture now, because if they can capture it, they can do two things. Firstly, there is no obstacle to advance west towards the city of NEPRO on the river. Except for one place, which is another actually very important city, which is called Pavlovrad. They can advance up the main road. There are no great barriers to reaching Pavlovrad. If the Russians reach Pavlovrad, that would be a major crisis. Well, it is really a major crisis for Ukraine.

But it would bring the Russians closer to the river. And we've discussed in many, many programs, how disastrous for Ukraine that would be if the Russians reach the NEPA in central Ukraine. So that's one thing. But the other thing, which I think is more likely what the Russians would want to do once Pachrosk is captured, is that they will advance north. They will outflank the Ukrainians in Slaviansk and Kermatos. The town of Konstantinivka, which is located south of these two places, is already in the process of a battle.

The Russians, even the Ukrainians have now confirmed, are fighting well inside Konstantinvka. Slaviansk and Kramatosk therefore look like being where the Ukrainian forces in Donbass are going to make their last stand. the fall of Pakrovsk brings that last stand closer. I mean, that is briefly the summary of the situation. And again, we can see that Sirsky and Zelensky have overstayed their time in Pakrovsk. They've kept Ukrainian troops there too long, with the result of five and a half thousand of them, according to the Russians are now encircled. And this isn't the only encirclement, as you rightly said.

There's another equally disastrous encirclement that's taking place in Kupiansk, which is further north. That is to the north of Slaviansk, Kramatosk. And there is a potential third encirclement now starting to develop in another town called Siversk, which is located somewhat to the east of Kupianz. and Slaviansk. So it is a crisis. This is a military crisis. There have been many battles in Dombas.

There have been many sieges of towns. Each town the Russians have had to capture, has brought them closer in this chess game, if you like, of capturing fortified towns and places. It's brought them closer to the point where we are at the final crisis, but we are now almost at the brink of the final crisis. If Pachrosk is captured, or rather more correctly, when Pachrovsk is captured, because it is now, I mean, a foregone conclusion that it is going to be. Then at that point, as I said, we are looking at the last act. in the Battle of Dombos, and who wins the Battle of Dombas, has won the war.

Yeah, Zelensky and Sirsky, they did in Pachrovsk, what they've done in, what they did in Bahmut, Avdyevka. They told the military to hold on to that region for as long as possible for for PR in political reasons, right? To convince the Trump administration that Ukraine somehow is able to thwart Russian advances, that this is a stalemate and to eventually get to the sanctions and the long-range missiles and all of that stuff, right? And the Trump administration bought it, right? Of course, with the help of Kellogg and Rubio, now we know Rubio, now we know,

is on the Ukraine-EU side of things. That's been revealed by Bloomberg. And the president bought into it, and he based his negotiating policy very much on Donetsk and the fact that Russia, according to President Trump only controlled. I think he put the number at 74 or 73 percent of Donetsk. And this was going to be some sort of leverage that Trump was going to have over Putin. That leverage is about to go. Absolutely. And by the way, on this now, We've had a very important interview from Lavrov, which has set the whole thing out exactly in the way that you've said, and which shows the extent of the miscalculation that is being

made and the way that this disaster has played out. Now, I'm going to take a little time, and it's a little bit historic in some ways, but it's nonetheless important, because we now can rebuild, we can now retrace pretty much exactly how it played out. Briefly, what Lavrov said, and he said this in an interview, a gate, he gave a big interview to a Hungarian, I believe, YouTube channel. He said this, that Witgolf came to Moscow back in, I think it was either the end of July or in early August. We remember the visit. And he met with Putin, and he came with a proposal from Trump.

And it's not difficult to work out what that proposal was. The proposal was that the Russians seized fire in Zaporosia and Herson region, and in return, the Ukrainians pull out of Dombas. Now, at that point, by the way, and I get to say straight away, I think Putin made a serious mistake because he said to, Weigov, look, this is interesting, we're prepared to give this thought, we're prepared to agree to a summit meeting to discuss this further with Trump, because this is what Trump had been pushing for. He wanted a summit meeting with Putin at that time. What Putin ought to have done is he should have said to Wickorf, and he should have said to Trump ultimately,

because Wickov was acting as trans-representative. Look, is this an idea or is this a definite offer? If it is an offer, I will treat it as an offer and I might decide to accept it, in which case you are bound by it. If it is an idea, then it requires an awful lot of further work, because I can tell you as night follows day that Zelensky is going to reject it. Putin didn't do that. That was a serious mistake. He agreed to meet Trump in Alaska. He met Trump in Alaska. According to Lavrov, he went step by step through what he assumed was Trump's offer.

He said to Trump conceptually, we're prepared to work with this. This is something interesting. It makes sense. Trump then said to Zelensky, to Putin, okay. I'll go off. I'll see whether we can make this work. Trump went off, met Zelensky, met the Europeans. The Europeans Zelensky said absolutely not. And you don't have to give back Dombas anyway, because we are successfully defending Dombas. And that was where everything went disastrously wrong, because Trump was then persuaded. And Bloomberg tells us,

that Rubio now played a key role in all of this, Trump was successfully persuaded that, in fact, the Ukrainians are successfully defending themselves in Dombas, which was completely not true. Now, that, by the way, also explains some other things why Putin went through so much trouble when he spoke to Trump.

well, almost two weeks ago, 10 days ago, to try to get him to understand that, in fact, what he has been told about the military situation in Dombas is wrong, that it is indeed the Russians who are winning there. And by the way, it also explains the purpose of the visit of Kirill Dimitrieff to Washington, because Dmitrieff has clearly been instructed by the Russians again to try to get the Americans to understand, that the Ukrainians are indeed losing in Donbass. Dimitriov's trip to Washington, which we are going to discuss later, is very controversial in Russia indeed.

But you are absolutely right. That is what happened. The Russians are winning in Donbass. Trump realizes or came to understand that Donbass, provided him with leverage. He was prepared on, but he was prepared to give it up in the summer because he realized that the Russians would take it anyway and he wanted to clince the deal. He was persuaded and believed Kellogg, Rubio, Waltz and Zelensky that in fact, on the contrary, the Russians were bogged down in Dombas and he's thrown away his leverage, or is about

it. Do you think that Putin would have really given up Zaporosia and Hirsson? Would it have been possible? No. For Putin as the president of Russia constitutionally, I mean, to have made this deal with Trump that Whitkoff allegedly presented to Lavrov and that they discussed in Alaska? That's my first question. My second question is, do you think that Rubio and the people that advised Trump to turn down the

Budapest summit and any type of negotiation with Russia, based on their belief that they thought Ukraine was actually pushing Russia back from Donets, successfully defending the Dombas? do you think that these guys, that they actually believed that, or that they were lying to the president? I get to answer the second question. I think they were lying to the president. I can't believe that they really believed it. I mean, their purpose... Because we knew what was going on, and everyone that watches this channel knew what was going on, right?

I cannot believe that they really believe that the Ukrainians are successfully defending in Donbass. What they want to prevent at all costs is a settlement of this conflict, which might lead to Donald Trump doing what he's talked about many, many times, coming to some kind of long-term deal with Russia. So I think that they all work together. Kellogg, Walsh, Rubio, the Europeans, Zelensky. They all came together and basically they lied to the president. The president, I think, is having some senses that this is so. You remember, we got the information that he's meeting with Zelensky didn't go at all well when Zelensky met him directly after he spoke to Putin. But for the moment at least, you're absolutely right in what you said previously. He continues to base his policy on what he can.

Kellogg, Rivio, Walsz, Zelensky, and the Europeans are telling them. It has been a disastrous mistake, and it is one that, I'm afraid, there's probably no easy coming back from. Now, going back to your previous question... Before you answer the Putin question, doesn't that reflect really poorly on Trump as well? It shows that Trump really doesn't dig deep into the issues, does it? Because he just believed, you know, Rubio and these guys. I mean, if we go by what you say, it means that Trump basically believed Rubio and Kellogg in what they said.

He didn't really seek a second analysis or anything like that. It reflects terribly on Trump. Trump doesn't do what the president of the United States needs to do in this kind of situation, which is go himself and. familiarize himself directly with what is going on. I mean, this is where someone like Kennedy, or very different man, Richard Nixon, would have taken the hours to get a real sense of what is actually going on on the battlefronts. He should have not just listened to all of these people and probably Radcliffe from the CIA were telling him. He should have gone out, spoken to others,

who had all of these things. He should have read the reports. He should have familiarized himself with the information. He should have listened more carefully and more closely to what people like probably Wickoff and Vance are trying to say to him. And he should have come to a much more informed decision that he did. The problem with Trump, and has been discussed by many people, is that he scarcely ever does this. He doesn't spend his time apparently reading papers. He rarely asks questions. He listens to what people say, and he bases his decisions on that. And then he listens to someone else, and he changes his decision based on what the other person tells him.

If you are president of the United States, there really is no alternative. You have to spend 15 hours a day familiarizing yourself with this kind of material. if you're really going to make any difference and to change things. And Trump doesn't do that. He does work very, very long hours, but he does that by going from one meeting to the next, listening to what people are saying, making decisions on the fly. He's trying to do lots of different things at once, whereas what he needs to do is focus on fewer things and get to understand them thoroughly.

But he doesn't do that. And that I think is why we are, where we are. Now, I do want to talk about Putin. Putin is taking, I'd say he's taking risks. I mean, he's taking enormous risks, turning round to the Russian people, to the military, and saying, look, I'm going to get the, Ukrainians to pull out of Dombas and I'm going to agree a ceasefire in Zaporosia and

Herson region. That would be, to say it would be unpopular and controversial in Moscow would be a massive understatement. Now Putin would obviously say this is temporary, we can have negotiations, eventually we expect Zaporosia and Heson to be returned to us. We have control of Dombas, That puts us in a dominating military position, all of those things. But all sorts of people would come back and say to Putin, you must have taken leave of your senses. We had any number of promises of this kind already. We had them with Donbass itself.

And yes, Donbass does matter. It is the single most important military position. But how dare you agree to a cease-by in Zaporosia? her son, when we know, and you yourself have repeatedly said, that ceasefires of this kind are never honored by the other side. So it would have been an incredibly hard sell, and it could only have worked if every other element of Istanbul Plus, including the demilitarization of Ukraine, had not only been agreed, but actually, honored. And would it have been, would it have been agreed? Would it have been honored? I hardly

think so. Again, it shows the extent to which Putin himself still wants to come to terms with the United States, still hankers for a relationship with the United States, a long-term relationship with the United States and with Donald Trump. And you can see, you can understand the reasoning for it. But again, it is an extraordinary case of hope over expectation to agree to a proposal of this kind. Now, that brings me, by the way, to the next point, which is Dmitrieff's visit in Washington, because of course, Dmitriov undoubtedly is in Washington, because some people in Washington are inviting him to come. And I'm no doubt that the initiative for this visit actually came from Washington.

By the way, everything, everything that we have seen up to now, the Dombas retreat proposal, the Zaporosia has on ceasefire, that was clearly an American proposal. The Alaska summit was an American proposal. The Budapest summit meeting, which has now been called off, that too was an American proposal. The Americans have been making the proposal. the proposals. Putin has been reacting to them. He's not initiated them. About that, now, there is no doubt whatsoever. And the same is true, Demetrius visit. But the strong thing to have done from Putin's point of view is to say, well, what is the point of having this visit at this time?

But what he has done, what Putin has done is he's authorized Dmitrieff to go. And yes, Demetrieff has made no public statements that retreat from the underlying positions taken, which are Istanbul Plus, except obviously from the Saperosje, and her something. But he's trying to persuade the Americans. Look, you're not being told the truth by the Ukrainians. You're not being told the truth by the Europeans. We can still find a way. We can still get this thing together.

And there is a clear. negative reaction building up against this. Peskov, who was Putin's spokesman, had to have a very difficult interview with the Russian journalist, Pavel Zarabin, who is very, very close to the Kremlin. And Zarabin was, again, asking very, very hard questions. Why are we going through all of this? And Peskov was saying, well, you know, we still want good relations with the United States. We must focus on our long-term interests.

Our long-term interests are to have good relations with the United States, as with all other countries. But you can see that Zarabin was, frankly, unconvinced, and many, many people in Moscow are going to be unconvinced too. Yeah, a lot of people are trying to figure out what is Dimitriov doing in D.C. from the one side of things, you understand that it's okay, it's important to engage in dialogue. It's important to leave the door open to diplomacy, if not now, then in the future. That's understood. But the part to that a lot of people are questioning is why does Dimitriev believe that he's going to all of a sudden convince the Trump administration that they're losing in Ukraine when over the past eight, nine months,

they firmly believe they're winning in Ukraine. And Trump himself, the president of the United States, has no clue what's happening in Ukraine. I mean, the one thing that has really come out of this entire affair is that Trump is clueless when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine. He's also clueless when it comes to the situation of the economy in Russia. He's clueless. He's making decisions blind. He's getting advice from people who are either just as clueless as he is or deliberately lying to him. And he's basing those decisions on this advice that he's getting. Why would Russia, why would Putin believe that after all of this that has happened, they can send someone to Washington and all of a sudden he's going to convince Trump of the

exact opposite of what he has been doing over the past nine months? It's not going to happen. I mean, the only thing that is going to wake Trump up or wake up the United States or convince the United States that it's time to negotiate something in good faith is going to be the reality on the ground. That's the only thing. And I don't even know if that's going to be enough to be quite honest. Well, that's what, indeed. Well, that's the point. I mean, there's two reasons here. Firstly, I think it is probably true that there are still some people in the White House,

in the administration, who don't agree with the Rubio-Kerlog-Walt's strategy. And I mean, we've discussed this many, many times. Why the Russians waste their time with this, I don't know. But Whitgolf undoubtedly is one of these people. He, I think, is much more skeptical. He's somebody who's already made it clear that he doesn't believe what the CIA says. He said the CIA gave him completely wrong advice about the Middle East. I think he believes that they're giving him completely,

they're giving the president completely wrong advice about the situation in Ukraine. He wants to speak to Dimitriyev. There are probably others too. We're told that Dimitriov is going to meet all sorts of people, but we don't tell exactly who they are. Representative Luna. Luna, indeed. I mean, absolutely.

You know, let's give credit where it's due. I mean, this particular U.S. congressperson is obviously somebody who does understand the situation. But we're not talking about here somebody within the administration. That's the key thing to understand. So, I mean, there is that problem. But anyway, the, the, there are some people. in Washington who want to continue the dialogue. I think the reason that Dimitriyev has been sent to Washington is actually a very, very simple one.

The Russians know that they're going to conquer Donbass very soon. Putin still wants to do the deal with Trump for all sorts of reasons that we've discussed many, many times. Dimitjev has been sent to Washington, to say to the Americans, to try to get the Americans to understand, look, your leverage, your bargaining piece is about to go. Unless you change tack now, unless you negotiate with us now, then in a few weeks, in a few months' time, There will be nothing to negotiate about because once we hold Dombas, we are not in a position to give back anything. We can't at that point realistically stop in Zaporosia and Hurson region anymore.

And Putin had a very interesting discussion with Gerasimov and the military when he met with them. I believe, by the way, not far from Pakrovsk, and they revealed the fact that the Ukrainians in Pakarovsk is surrounded. Because Gerasibov said very clearly, we are carrying out our mission, which is to liberate Donbass, and to liberate Zaporosian-Hasson region. That is what the military wants to do. There are lots of reports now that the military, the military, the military, the, the Russian military is in the process of some very complicated operation in Herzon city, which we discussed in a previous program, it's very difficult to get a clear idea of what exactly is going on there. And very interestingly, Gerasimov and Putin didn't discuss it,

and there must have been a decision that they wouldn't discuss it, at least in public, so that we are absolutely not being told what is going on in Herzon City. But the Russian military is obviously involved in some kind of operation in Heirsson City. The Russian military are also involved, as we know, in advance, a big advance, in Zaporosia region as well. They've just captured a whole fortified line that the Ukrainians had there. They're moving closer and closer all the time to the city of Zaporosia region as well. Zaporosia and to the and to the river. So the military clearly are not happy with all of these diplomatic maneuvers. And Putin gave a public reassurance to the military. He said, look,

whatever happens in the diplomacy, unless and until there is some major change in the diplomacy, You carry on with the plan, the plan that you have already worked out. You follow it exactly. And you don't worry about the diplomacy either. So the military wants to see, the whole of Zaporosia and her son, recaptured. The military have a plan to do these things. The military are executing that plan. if Dombas is recaptured and Putin comes along and tells them to stop, well, they will say why.

Why do you want us to stop? We've already retaken Dombas. We are close to capturing all of these other places. And as Lavrov said to the Hungarian media, these are not new territories. These are historic Russian territories that are being returned. turned to Russia. And he spoke at length again about Odessa, and he talked about how Edessa was founded by Catherine the Great. And he went into extraordinary detail about that and about how Catherine the Great created all of these new cities, workshops, and factories, and how her statue in

Odessa as the founder of Odessa has just been dismantled by the Ukrainians. So you could see that For Putin, if he's going to cut the deal with Trump at all, we've talked about how for the Americans, the window for the deal is closing. It's closing for Putin as well. I think everyone is asking the question about Putin. Why does he want to deal with Trump so badly? And to me, everything that you're saying, to me, it sounds like all of this is another de Bautsovo-Minsk-3 type of thing. where the United States, instead of Merkel, you now have Trump and the collective West, the United States, desperately trying to get some sort of a ceasefire using every trick in the book,

whether it's sanctions, China, India, whatever. They're doing everything they can to get a ceasefire in order to prevent the annihilation of the Ukraine military that is caught up in these encirclements and to prevent Russia from capturing Dornetsk in much the same way that Merkel flew to Moscow and prevented the annihilation of the Ukraine military in de Bozbo. And we ended up with Mitzk and Mitzk and Mitz 1 and Mitz 2. And we know how all of that turned out. That's what this reminds me of. And the weird part about it is that even though Putin knows he got burned with Merkel,

he's tinkering with the idea of cutting this deal with Trump. or wanting to cut a deal with Trump, at least that's the way it sounds. And the military doesn't want it. The military wants to accomplish its mission. And Putin is looking to do this deal, knowing that Donetsk and Donbaz will be captured by Russia in a month or two or three. It seems it's almost, it seems inevitable that if you look at the military situation, that Donetsk will be captured by Russia, in which case, Trump loses all his leverage. Why would you

cut a deal based on Donetsk knowing that in the next month to three months, you're going to capture Donetsk anyway, with the military fully behind this? I mean, if the military was against this, I would understand if the military fear, Yerazimov said, you know what, we don't want to continue. We prefer as the military, as the top command, we prefer a settlement, a diplomatic settlement. Then I would understand Putin's thinking. But listening to what you're saying, the military wants to accomplish its mission and they have more complicated operations going on in Herson and Zappadoje, which they want to carry out. That's why there's so many people, So many analysts trying to figure out what is this obsession that Putin has with wanting to strike a deal with President Trump?

I mean, I mean, I would say I think there is an element of obsession about this. And when people do become obsessed, it becomes very, very difficult sometimes to get them to change their mind. And Putin, as we've discussed many times, has this habit of trying to develop strong relationships with particular leaders. I think he's completely disillusioned with the Europeans. I think he realizes that Europeans have no agency. He's a child of the Soviet Union. He still hankers for that situation that the Soviet Union once had, where it was recognized by the United States as an equal.

And he, like many Russians of that generation, still has this idea that a deal with the Americans can be done, which will stabilize for Russia, the overall situation in Europe. It's important to remember where for Putin this all began. It began with a speech he gave to the Russian Foreign Ministry back in, I think it was November 2021, before the special military operation. It was he said that Russia cannot afford to be worried all the time about the situation on his Western border, it needs to come to some kind of long-term understanding with the United States in order to secure its western border so that it can concentrate on its pressing issues of domestic economic development. And that was what he said then. I remember that there was open skepticism

on the part of the diplomats that he was addressing about this. But he, like, put, Putin tends to do once he comes to this kind of formula, this kind of concept, he sticks with it right up to the point of exhaustion. And he still wants, as I said, to find his word. And, you know, there are rational reasons why he would want that. He wants, and his writer wants, and understanding, with the Americans about strategic nuclear weapons, for example. I mean, that is an incredibly dangerous situation. Putin brings it up all the time. I think he's puzzled, by the way, I am, about why the Americans are so unreceptive on this.

So you can understand Putin's thinking. And if you also look back to the history of Russia, to the modern history of Russia, to the period of the Cold War, to the relationship that the Soviet Union and the United States had with each other, you can up to a point to understand this as well. The key thing is, it's not just the military who disagree with him here, because they do disagree with him. Putin, I think, is largely isolated on this issue within the Russian political system today. Medvedev is now openly critical. Remember, we discussed, what Medvedev said the other day about, you know, let's have no illusions.

Trump is not a peacemaker. The United States is not a partner. It is an enemy. Medvedev undoubtedly is speaking increasingly for more and more people within the Kremlin. Lavrov himself, again, if you go back to his interview with the Hungarian media, He clearly, I don't think he really believes in this policy himself either. I think there's just a very, very few people around Putin, Dimitria, for example, and a few others who still think that there might be some chance

that this can be done and who also are probably saying to each other, Putin is probably saying to each other that unless the deal, is done with this president, unless this deal is done with Trump, it is not going to be done at all because no president who succeeds Trump can be relied upon to be even interested in a good long-term relationship with Russia either. So that, I suspect, is the urgency. It is an important thing to say about Putin, that when it comes to call Russian interests, Ukraine and NATO, disarmament by Ukraine, those sort of things. He has never shown any intention of making concessions.

I think that he still hopes that he can come a deal, come to a deal with the Americans, but he will never make those critical concessions, which perhaps some people in Europe want. And as I said, I think he's still clinging to the idea that it can just be done but there are deep suspicions building up around him. He himself is having his doubts, by the way.

We discussed recently his press conference, his press conference after the cancellation of the summit. By Trump, it was noticeable that Putin did not refer to Trump by name, except in one case where he called him President Trump. If you know Russian practice, that is a sign of deep anger and even disgust towards the actions of the interlocutor of Trump. But as I said, for the moment at least, he's still making a last ditch attempt as far as I can see to retrieve his policy. Yeah, just a final note. I wonder if there are people in the Kremlin who are advising Putin that whatever deal you do make with Trump, if you were to make any deal with Trump, however rational it would be, it would just be unwound by the next administration, right?

Republican or Democrat. I mean, they're just going to trash whatever deal you come up with. Like they've trashed every deal in the past, right? I mean, so even that logic, which is very, very understood, it makes sense. Absolutely. You have someone that you can talk to in Trump, right? However, however erratic Trump is, at least you can talk to him, which you couldn't do with Biden, okay? Or you couldn't do with Obama either.

So at least you can talk to this guy. But in three years, it's all just going to be, going to be trashed anyway. I mean, the minute it's signed, the minute a deal is signed. with the United States, the deep state will start to unwind it, even without Trump knowing. Trump may have the best intentions, right? Let's assume he has the best intentions for peace and no war and I solve nine conflicts or whatever. The minute that document is signed, the deep state will get to work in unwinding everything,

right, and sabotaging everything. I mean, it's a guarantee. That's a guarantee. So I wonder if there are people that are telling Putin this. I mean, obviously Putin knows this. You must know this, obviously. But, you know, the reason that the United States is not receptive to the START treaty, the reason that the United States would not discuss demilitarization of Ukraine,

even if Putin was going to throw in, Herzegovos, even if he was going to make that concession, which I think would be impossible to make, but still, even if he got that through, the demilitarization of Ukraine is never going to have. happen because the collective West is betting on some sort of conflict the next two to three to four years. That is what they're betting on. That's what they're working their way towards, at least a part of the U.S. government, a part of the collective West deep state apparatus.

Everybody in Russia is telling Putin this. I am sure Medvedev is telling this to Putin. I'm sure Lavrov is telling this to Putin. I'm sure Belloos of the defense minister is telling this to Putin. Gerasimov, I doubt that he provides political advice. But if he was asked, I'm sure he would say the same thing. The media in Russia is full of this. And Putin himself has been asked this very same question.

I remember when it was done over the course of one of the many press conferences, live question and answer, Q&A. sessions that he did. And by the way, he's working up to doing another one very soon, and it's highly likely that he'll be asked about it there also, just to say. And I remember his answer, he said, look, there is no, you know, we don't have trust. I don't trust anybody. I understand that there is this massive deficit of trust, but we must nonetheless still try. And that is what Beskov basically said in the interview he gave with Zarabin yesterday. So that is, he's always his reply, you know, that ultimately we can't just give up here.

America is just too powerful. We have to have these dialogues with them. We have to see whether we can find some kind of way forward. He will no doubt say if we've got Donbass, we've got their major defence line. If they break the terms, then we can advance, we can resume our. special military operation, we're only putting it on pause. I could, well, you can always see the arguments in Moscow taking place. Increasingly, people are not agreeing with him about this. And as I said, eventually the point will come, but it would become impossible, even for Putin

to press on with it. And when Ukraine loses Donbass, because of course this is, If you like, well, some would say Putin's salvation. Zelensky's never going to agree to withdraw from any part of Donbass. There's a single village in Donbass still under Ukrainian control. Zelensky is going to refuse to retreat from it. The Europeans are going to back Zelensky in doing that. So this last ditch attempt sending Dimitriye to Washington, trying to get Trump to change course is hopeless.

Because the other mistake that Putin is making is that he believes he's convinced himself that if Trump decides to switch off the war in Ukraine, it can be switched off. Whereas the reality, which ought to be absolutely obvious now after nine months, is that Trump is never going to face down. The hardliners in Washington. and is never going to face down the Europeans, and he's never going to put Zelensky himself in his place. So again, Putin harbors this illusion that the deal will be done in the same way that the North

Vietnamese did their deal with Nixon back in the 1970s in Paris, but it's never going to happen. Yeah, the sanctions should be the decisive indication that Trump is never. going to stand up to the Europeans or the neocons or any of these guys. I mean, he folded on the sanctions, big time. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. You can't even believe what Trump says because you just don't know in 24 hours.

He could switch everything up and Lavrov made that point. Yes. When he talked about the ceasefire, I mean, what Trump says one day, he can completely change it around the next day, especially if he's getting pressure from the Lindsey Graham's and the Kellogg's. Yes. Bear in mind that what he said about the ceasefire, this reversal on the ceasefire, Trump has provided no public explanation. He's not explained. He's not even taken the trouble to explain why he's so abruptly reversed his own policy. He's now saying that he canceled the meeting with Putin because

he wants to see a deal done. There's no acknowledgement. on Trump's side, that it was he who proposed the beating with Putin in the first place. Yeah. No, they want to ceasefire so they can rearm Ukraine and get to it again in a couple of years. The Bouts of O, Minsk 3, Angela Merkel, it's the same freaking playbook. Yes, yes. That's simple. And Lavrov, who remember is addressing Putin as well, made that

very same point in the interview he gave to the Angier in media, that that is the only purpose behind all of these demands for a ceasefire. That's just, anyway, okay, we'll leave it there. The durand.locals.com. We're on X, we're on Rumble, we're on Telegram, we're also on Substack. Links in the description box down below. Take care.