The Duran Podcast - US divide and destroy BRICS

Episode Date: August 10, 2025

US divide and destroy BRICS

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the attack on bricks, which is what we are seeing from the Trump tariffs and the Trump White House. This is shaping up to be an assault on bricks. At least that's my opinion of things. Trump is saying that he's placing all of these tariffs on India and Brazil. We're now at 50% tariffs for India, 50% tariffs for Brazil, though there's a lot of exceptions. and cutouts to to those tariffs, which you'll get into. But still, it is a way to divide bricks and to sow chaos inside of bricks.

You say to India that you're going to place tariffs on India because of Russia. You tell China to stop trading with Russia and to stop buying or to stop sending dual-use goods to Russia because they're fueling the war machine. You want to sow division and discord within bricks, and I think that's what we see going on. And now we have bricks uniting, actually. Instead of breaking bricks apart, we see a type of bricks consolidation and unification.

And Lula seems to be leading away with this, which is kind of the last person I would have thought. to have called for a BRICS meeting and to call on BRICS to unite and to face the United States together. India is also now making moves, not only with Russia but with China as well. And this is having the reverse effect than what perhaps the Trump White House was expecting. You're absolutely correct. And I think this is also the general explanation for all of the various diplomatic moves that we're seeing. Now, what has happened over the last year, I think since the summit in Kazan, the Brick Summit in Kazan, is that the penny has finally dropped in the United States.

The Bricks is a long-term threat to American economic hegemony. A lot of people after the Kazan summit meeting said, you know, nothing substantive was agreed. There was no setting up of a reserve currency, bricks reserve currency, or anything. of that sort. But of course, a lot of other things were agreed, important things. We discussed this at the time, payment systems, trade systems, banks, and they're all gradually coming together. And Trump has clearly been briefed on this, and he's taking it extremely seriously. And we see an attempt to divide bricks and to destroy bricks and to come. And to constantly. And to come. conquer bricks. And so we have tariffs, 50% tariffs against Brazil, explained through all sorts of

specious reasons. Prosecutions of Bolsonaro, I don't mean that Trump doesn't care about that. He definitely does, but Bolsonaro, legal steps that Brazil is taking against American tech companies. a non-existent Brazilian trade surplus against the United States. So we have 50% headline figure, 50% tariffs against Brazil. We now have 50% tariffs. I believe it's actually, probably speaking, 55% tariffs against China. Now, people don't understand this because the headline number is 35% tariffs against China. But in fact, tariffs against China have been creeping up for some time now.

And if we go back a couple of years, tariffs against China have increased around, again, a headline level, about 55% against China. Remember, China is the major target. There's also tariffs and pressure on South Africa. And there's also threats against Russia. Now, this is very complicated because India has been bled. for buying oil from Russia, the United States, Trump, however, seems to be trying to win over Russia because they seem to think that Russia, which is already under a lot of pressure, might be the

country that might be drawn out of the bricks eventually. So you tell the Indians, blame the Russians that we put tariffs on you. We then invite or we then seem to be talking to. the Russians, we're having Soviet meetings with them. We're playing this complicated game of trying to break up the bricks and we're using tariffs in order to do that. And you're absolutely correct. The bricks are responding. Now, the first thing to say about these tariffs is that they are not all that they seem.

So 50% tariffs against Brazil, but apparently there are huge numbers of carve-outs in the tariffs against Brazil. So all sorts of things like business jets, Embraea, Brazilian company makes business jets and other kinds of jets. Apparently they're not subject to tariffs. All sorts of other products that Brazil produces, also not subject to tariffs. I understand that in the case of India, India's total trade with the United States is around $130 billion a year, you know, imports and exports. Apparently, only about 20 billion of that is going to be subject to the 50% tariffs because there are so many carve-outs on other things, on pharmaceuticals, on electronic goods, all kinds of other things, that the reality is the tariff against India is well below the headline rate. China, even more so. Again, lots of carve-outs on the tariffs

against China, electronic goods basically not subject to them. So already we can see that the American position is not quite as strong as it looks. to be on the surface. The Americans also clearly very nervous about making real steps against Russian energy, Russian oil and energy exports, despite talk that they want to do that, because they're very nervous of pushing up energy costs as well. So the Americans are launching an all-out attack on the bricks, an economic attack on the bricks, but already it's looking as if the bricks economies are stronger than the Americans perhaps anticipated so that the Americans are having to pull some of their punches. And the bricks clearly understand that there is an attempt to divide them

are on the contrary combining. And we can see this. So Lula is talking about, calling an emergency meeting of the Bricks. Now, here I get to say it again, you get the news very often first on the Duran, because we did a programme some days ago in which we actually said that there would probably be at some point soon an emergency meeting of the Briggs. And now we see the Lula, who is, by the way, I mean, this year, it's Brazil that is chairing bricks. So Flula is the chair of bricks.

He's going to call India. He's going to call China to set up an emergency meeting of the bricks. So that is clearly now on the cards. It is on the way. Modi is going to visit China. And apparently that trip might take place as soon as next week. just before we started making this program, reports coming through that the Indian government has now sorted out, has now agreed the dates of Vladimir Putin's visit to India. So all of these various

countries are now in discussions and contacts with each other. India is meeting China and Russia. Modi is going to China. Putin is coming to India. Brazil, Lula, is talking to India and China, and before long, Russia too. The Prime Minister of Malaysia, which is also, I believe, now, either a Bix state or a BRICS aspirant state, is in Moscow. Expect, over the next couple of weeks, an extraordinary summit meeting of the BRICS to take place and the Bricks will then agree further steps to take the, to take integration between them, a whole step further, because to repeat again, again, exactly as we've been saying, in program after

program, the major catalyst of Brick's integration has been American economic pressure. What can bricks do together to fight off this attack from the Trump White House? Do they need to do anything? Or is it just a matter of staying unified? Just staying unified and staying on course. You don't need to panic because, as you mentioned, there are a lot of carve-outs in these tariffs, which Trump is not going to talk about. He's going to say 50 percent tariffs, peace through strength. You see, I'm pressuring India, I'm pressuring Russia.

Everything is good, but he's not going to get into the details of all the carve-outs with these tariffs. For example, what you mentioned about India, that India does have carve-outs, and it makes these tariffs a lot weaker than what they sound than what they appear. But does Bricks need to do anything? Or do they just need to stay united? You know, I think you actually are asking an excellent question, because I'm going to make it guess that that is going to be the primary purpose of this extraordinary meeting. It is to reaffirm Bricks unity and the commitment of all of the various states to the Bricks. They will this time want a meeting in which all the leaders are there. One of the things that Trump has been, the Americans and others have been talking about was that Xi Jinping and Putin didn't attend

the BRICS meeting in Rio. Now, we've discussed at the time why they probably didn't want to attend that meeting, one of which was that they didn't want to, Putin didn't want to put himself at risk by traveling all that enormous distance when there's an warrant out for his arrest from the International Criminal Court, which the Europeans might try and enforce against his plane if it was flying to Rio. So Xi Jinping also didn't want to meet Modi at that time because relations between China and India were difficult. But Modi is now going to meet Xi Jinping. If they decide to hold the meeting, let us say in India, which is a real possibility,

then all of them can meet and they can all show that they're united together with each other, that there are no cracks within the bricks and that they're all talking together as one. The problem with doing more practical things is that they are doing those things already. To do them properly takes time, to work out payment systems, to do all of the technology things that need to be done, to unite various payment systems. that already exist in different countries to sort out all the technological glitches. That is not something that really you should hurry, because if you do, you will get a defective system. And as somebody who knows an awful lot more about tech than I do, I suspect you will say that it's much better to set it up properly from the beginning than have to repair it all the time after you set it up and got it going.

So I think they're probably not going to rush to do those things that they already agreed that they would do in Kazan and which they took further during that meeting in Rio. Why is Trump all of a sudden so obsessed with Bricks? What do you think did it for him? Wouldn't it have been better if Trump tried to play along with Bricks? I'm not saying become a part of Bricks but worked with Bricks. What was the thing that pushed Trump over the edge with Bricks? Because four months ago, Bricks to Trump was Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Spain. That was Bricks to Trump four months ago.

What did it? And as you absolutely correctly pointed out in one of our recent programs, if you followed the election last year, the subject of Bricks never came up at all. He never said that, you know, he's going to go off and attack Bricks. last year during the election. I mean, this is all come together over the last couple of weeks. Well, I'm going to make a guess that he's been briefed. He's received a briefing from someone, perhaps the CIA, perhaps people in Congress who are telling him that Bricks is a real,

a clear and present danger to the United States, that his entire economic policy will be thrown into chaos if Bricks succeeds and that this has somehow alarmed him and is making him turn on Bricks in the way that he's currently doing. I mean, I can't come up with any other explanation. As I said, I presume he's received a report or a briefing from somebody about the threat from Briggs and is taking it very seriously. I wonder if someone told him or his advisors believe that that you can kill two birds with one stone. You can end the conflict in Ukraine as well as destroy bricks and preserve the U.S.'s unipolar moment. So attack India, attack China, attack Russia,

attack Brazil, break up bricks. By breaking up bricks, you also destroy Russia's funding for their war machine and dual-use goods and Russian oil and all of that stuff. So you'll accomplish so much by escalating your tariff policy towards bricks to the point where you solve all of your problems. I think you've actually answered the question. All of our policy problems are solved. I think I would add something else. I wonder whether the other thing that finally propelled Trump over, you know, onto the side of this, was that whoever briefed him also told him this is the way to isolate China. because China is at the center of the bricks and this is their trading system. So break it up, isolate, which is of course the neocon dream. I mean, it's what they've been trying to do all these years, isolate China and that this may

very well have evolved out of the trade war between China and the United States that we saw in the spring in April and May. that if you break up bricks, you've isolated China. China doesn't have alternative trade partners, and then you can hammer the Chinese, and you can force the Russians to agree to the freeze of the conflict, and you've reestablished the hegemony of the dollar, and everything is well and good, and the United States is the unipolar superpower again. Yeah. So what happens when, when and if, if and when Trump decides to impose these 100% tariffs on bricks? Does that mean Brazil is getting 150% tariff? Does that mean India is getting 150%? Does that mean China is getting 100, I believe 135%. I believe it's at 35% now? Is that what we're talking about? And what effect will this have on oil, the price of oil?

on the US economy, on the global economic situation? Every analyst that I have read and heard, every serious analyst, agrees that doing this thing would be absolutely catastrophic for the US and Western economies. They are at the center of a world trade system, from which they'd be net beneficiaries. is, I mean, I understand that there's issues about American deindustrialization and protection and things of this kind, but this is a cure that would be far worse than the disease. It would precipitate a major economic recession and crisis in the United States. We already have risk of stagnation in the United States, rising inflation against flat output growth.

And this would make that problem. them far, far worse and might even push the United States and the Western economy is into a deeper recession. So it would be very, very bad. And the BRIC states altogether as a group are probably in a much stronger position to navigate this and to work their way through than the United States is. China, a huge manufacturing economy. India, it's a huge manufacturing economy. India, trades, if it sorts out bricks, if it's able to draw ASEAN into bricks, which it is gradually step by step succeeding in doing, it's got its market, it's got its market and its trade partners, it's got its secure oil and gas supplies from Russia and Iran. It's sorted, basically. India,

economy that is basically growing on the basis of domestic demand. And India has strong relations with China in that case. It needs massive investments to upgrade its infrastructure and its industry.

China can provide that. It provided the relationship with India and China is sorted out. Russia has secure markets for its oil and gas. Brazil has also secure markets for its agricultural products, many of its industrial products as well. Brazil is a significant industrial producer. All of these countries could potentially navigate the system better than the Western economies

could do. Because the Western economies have been at the center of world trade for so long that they've become more dependent on it in many respects than the BRICS countries have. So that's how it would play out, provided the BRICS remain united. Where does South Africa fit in all of this? Well, it's the weakest member of the BRICS. I think this is widely accepted. It's still nonetheless, it's still got industries, it's still got presumably mining. I gather gold is much less important today than it used to be in the South African economy.

I don't pretend I know very much about this, but South Africa has its place and Africa absolutely does. And Africa is an region where the BRIC states are very, very interested. And remember, Ethiopia is already a member of BRICS. Nigeria is apparently heading in the direction of becoming so. So is Angola, by the way. When we talk about Bricks' Unity, a final question, a lot of people don't discuss this, but when we are talking about Bricks' unity, everyone's focusing rightly so on India, Brazil, China, Russia, because that seems to be where the Trump White House's attack is focused on.

But if we're talking about Lula having a meeting, calling a meeting with Bricks and Bricks, talking about reaffirming their unity against the attacks, the tariff attacks that are incoming. I mean, we are talking about Ethiopia. We are talking about UAE. I believe the UAE is going to be meeting with Putin as well. Absolutely. You know, we are talking about Iran. Africa definitely seems to be leaning towards bricks.

Yes. Indonesia. talking about Indonesia. And we're also talking about partner states. I mean, where does all of this fit in? Well, absolutely. What we're starting to see is a trade system that not only it brings together the core countries, which are the ones you said, China, India, Brazil, Russia, but which is gradually expanding to draw in ASEAN, the ASEAN states, which are already economically well developed, but also more and more of the global south as well. In other words, most of the world. eventually, outside the dollar system. Right. Okay, we will end the video there. The durand.locals.com.

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