The Duran Podcast - US-EU Trade Deal. Trump gets everything, Ursula gets nothing

Episode Date: July 28, 2025

US-EU Trade Deal. Trump gets everything, Ursula gets nothing

All right, Alexander, we have a trade deal or the frameworks of a trade deal between the United States and the European Union. Trump and Ursula, they met in Scotland at Trump's golf course. And Trump dictated the terms of the agreement to Ursula and to the European Union. There really were no, in my opinion, this was not a negotiation. This was not a dialogue between two equal powers or peers. This was basically the empire dictating to its vassal how things are going to go down. And that's what we actually saw in the meeting.

Trump reading from a prepared script or notebook, he was reading the terms of this framework that were agreed upon. And Dersela just sat there very, very subdued, humiliated. It showed that she was humiliated. And she just nodded her head. And the only comment she could come up with was that at least we got a deal with the U.S. and at least we have some stability. And that's all the EU got.

I don't even know if you can call that getting something out of this deal, stability or something like that. But do you want to go over the deal? the terms of the deal? Do you want me to say? I mean, she got nothing. I think, I got nothing, but I mean, the US got everything. He got everything. He got everything that he wanted. Of course, he's threatened 30% tariffs, but he's gone for 15% of tariffs. Everybody thought that he would go for 15% tariffs. He's gone for 15% tariffs. He's, um, some countries got 10, Alexander. Yeah, I know. Yeah. So, so the EU didn't even get 10%.

No, I know. Absolutely. 15% tariffs, quotas on steel, but of course, quotas, another way of imposing tariffs ultimately, because it means that the EU is agreeing to restrict its steel exports to the US, and the United States can just adjust those in any way that he wants at any time. No reciprocal tariffs in the EU against the US, nothing. Plus promises to, you know, to send, more investment and funding and all of that to the U.S. paying the U.S. for what exactly?

Trump a few days ago announced that he'd done this same sort of deal with Japan, except it turns out that he didn't because the Japanese said that they didn't know what he was talking about, and had it hadn't agreed anything or signed anything. Well, maybe that's true, or maybe it's not. I don't know, but in the case of the EU, there is no doubt whatsoever. Trump made put out his demands and Ursula folded. And I mean, it's an abject performance. And I'm going to say something.

I think that in terms of Europe's economic future, it is going to be a long-term shock that's going to accelerate deindustrialization. almost as bad as the energy shock the EU imposed on itself in February 2022 when they cut themselves off from Russian gas and oil. And by the way, on that, Oscella has also said that they're going to continue this process of cutting themselves off completely from Russian gas and oil. And where are they going to buy it from? From the United States? Yeah, she said the Russian, the United States, LNG is affordable and better. It's just better.

It's better and it's affordable compared to the pipeline right next door. Russian gas. Yeah, she's still going with that, right? You know, there are a lot of analysts that are saying, you know, don't say that there's a deal yet because Trump said this with China, or the Trump White House said this with China and with Japan. So right now you just have a type of framework. This is just more talk from the Trump White House. Maybe yes, maybe no, but I think you brought up a good point.

The difference with the meeting with the European Union than with Japan and China is that here you have the President of the United States sitting next to the European Commissioner reading out the terms of the deal of this framework. He's reading it out. It's clear that he's got in the paper and he's reading out bullet point by bullet point what they're going to agree on. And we have it all on video. And there you have Ursula, just nodding along

and agreeing to everything. And when she was asked by reporters to comment, the only comment she could come up with is, well, at least we got a deal. That's the only comment she could come up with. And then afterwards, she started talking about how she's going to, how the EU is going to invest $750 billion in purchasing U.S. energy over three years, $250 billion a year. And this is great because the USLNG is more affordable and better than the Russian energy. She actually said, we are never going to purchase.

Russian energy. We do not want Russian fossil fuels in Europe. So, I mean, it was a humiliation for the European Union. Everyone accepts it. Marine Le Pen said this was a humiliation. DeMu who is Macron's prime minister said it. The one time when Bayru, Macron's own government, is agreeing with Marine Le Pen, there you go. Guy Verhofstadt said it was a humiliation. I mean, he's the guy that was pushing in the EU parliament, pushing to cut off completely, to cut off Russia and China. And now he's saying that this is just a travesty. He's saying this deal that Ursula accepted.

So, you know, there's the talk that this has to be approved by EU member states' parliaments. This terrible deal, $750 billion in energy, $600 billion, like you said, invested in the U.S. for what? No one really knows. But anyway, you got to pay daddy, right? So they're going to give 600 to the United States up. Weapons purchases, huge amounts of weapons, Trump said. So you can say goodbye to the EU's plan or Germany's plan to build this big military

industrial manufacturing juggernaut in Europe and in Germany. I mean, Germany placed all its money, all its bets, its bets, the Merch's government on making Germany into this military. production giant. Yeah. That was it. That's what he placed the entire German economy's hopes on. That's gone because you're going to now have to buy weapons from the United States.

And Europe is still going to pick up the tab for Project Ukraine as well. Yes. I know. So I mean, what do you think of all of that? And then what do you think of the analysis which says that the EU parliaments are never going to approve this? I'm thinking the opposite. I don't think they have any option.

They may complain. They may gnash their teeth and yell and be upset, but where else are they going to go? Well, I absolutely agree with this. I think that's exactly what is going to happen. And can I just also say, Osula, obviously, we've as exposed herself, not just as a bad negotiator. Somebody who just isn't really interested in this, but the other person who ought to have been there, who ought to have been speaking with Trump, who should have been visiting. Washington repeatedly having discussions with Trump because the US is such an important country

for his market for his country. And his country has always been Europe's industrial and economic heartland and is a major exporting power. The person who should have gone there was Friedrich Metz. And where is he in all of this? Nowhere. Ursula and Metz, who dislike each other. by the way, they're obsessively focused on one thing, which is Russia.

That is their major concern. They have no other real interest in anything, in anything else. So if it comes down to protecting vital European interests, they sacrifice them. And given that Mance is taking the stance that he is, and given that there's no sign that anybody else, within the German coalition is going to push back against this deal either. If Germany backs this deal, all of the others will, because they will have no choice in exactly the way that you said. The French will complain. Some people will complain, but they will deal with it. Over the last three, four years, the European Union, or maybe let's not call it the European Union,

Europe has steadily moved towards committing economic suicide. The relationship with Russia, which used to be very important, I can remember a time when people like, well, German business people, were talking about Russia becoming Germany's economic hinterland. The relationship with Russia has been completely destroyed. The relationship with China is collapsing. There was an EU-China meeting a few days ago. Ursula and Costa were both there.

The meeting was cut back from two days to one. They met with Xi Jinping. The Chinese readout is so vague that it seems that they agreed on nothing. In fact, the meeting apparently went very badly. And they left before the day of the meeting was over. So, I mean, that relationship has collapsed. And here we see with the United States that they've come up with this impossible, unbalanced deal, which is going to cripple the economic development of Europe.

I mean, if you wanted proof that the European Union is a project that is obsessively focused on geopolitics, has no real interest in the welfare of the European people that thinks entirely of Russia and waging its conflict against it and that has managed to win over the government of Germany to its project and mounts as well. Well, now I think you have it. I do think there's any doubt at all.

Somebody wrote, actually it wasn't, it was Bayru who said a dark day for Europe. A dark, a dark future for Europe as well, altogether. Because all pretends that this is a mechanism, that the EU is a mechanism for achieving prosperity in Europe is gone. And all pretence that the EU is a strong negotiating partner capable of negotiating on Europe's behalf with other powers, that's gone as well. So if we assume that this framework will eventually be put into a deal, into a deal format, we assume that the parliaments in the European Union member states will approve this. As you said, they have nowhere else to go.

They've cut off Russia. Russia did not cut them off, as they say. They sanctioned Russia. They cut off Russia. Nord Stream was blown up. They did nothing about it. China, as you said, that's a catastrophe. That meeting last week was a complete train wreck.

Ursula Costa. Was Kayakalis there as well? I believe she was also there. Yeah, they were thrown on a bus and moved around via bus, completely humiliated. Nothing came out of that meeting. So, you know, we have to assume that when this does become a deal, put into some sort of a document, that the parliaments will, approve this because if they don't approve it, then Trump can just go back to 30% or 40%. He could say that.

He could say, okay, you guys don't want to approve my terms? 40% tariffs, 50% tariffs like Brazil. Why not 100? But he could do whatever he wants. So they're going to have to approve this. That's my thinking. What happens not only to the EU, but also to the United States because, okay, you're going to get 15% tariffs.

into the U.S., that's going to be moved on to the U.S. consumer. So you are going to get an uptick in prices there. I mean, the tariffs are going to be absorbed. Most of the time, they're absorbed by the consumer. The EU market is going to be completely open, zero tariffs, completely open to the U.S. Europe's going to have to find all of this money if we assume that they're going to make all of these purchases in LNG and $600 billion to who knows what. From what I understand, they don't even have the LNG terminals to absorb all of this LNG.

That's my understanding of things as well. Anyway, I don't know if they're even thinking about that. Maybe they have to build some more terminals. They will. I don't know. The U.S., I was thinking about this. This is going to be a catastrophe for Europe. But in a way, this is going to be a – this is going to tie up the U.S. to Europe to Europe.

as well. I mean, here you have this eroding, almost lifeless body that is, that is decaying. Yes. And the U.S. is going to have to take care of this carcass. You know, in a way, for the elites in Europe, it does the job of tying the U.S. into Europe, whether you're talking about military purchases, whether you're talking about LNG. So, yeah, there are some, you're citizens are going to get poorer, their farmers are going to be demolished, their industries are going to be obliterated. I'm talking about Europe here, but they keep the U.S. in. Yeah.

And the U.S. is going to have to take care of this thing called Europe. There's this decaying thing called Europe. I mean, how do you see this? It doesn't seem like it's a good deal for anybody to be quite honest. In the long term, you're right. Absolutely. You're completely right. Now, can I just because you brought up Brazil. Well, Trump has imposed 50% tariffs on Brazil, which is much higher than what he's imposed on the European Union. But here's the difference. Brazil has alternatives. It's a member of Bricks. It's only 30% of its exports go to the US. Its biggest export market, as it happens, is China. It has a much more diversified range of trade. partners. It can absorb a blow like this and it can work to find more export markets in other places. It can trade. Europe can't do that. We are in conflict with China and Russia, the two

major BRICs powers. So we are not, we don't have that alternative diversity of other export markets that Brazil has, because again, of the way in which we have run our geopolitics over the last 10, five, three years. Now, as with the United States, you're absolutely correct. I mean, from the perspective of the European political class, we've discussed this many times, their major priority, their overriding priority, is to keep the United States in Europe. I mean, to keep the United States protecting Europe, as they like to call it, to keep the two institutions, the EU and especially NATO running. And of course, NATO depends a lot on American money.

They want to keep that linkage to Europe, to the United States. They're prepared to sacrifice, as we've seen literally anything, to achieve that, to keep the United States tied down in Europe. Now, the whole thing about MAGA, the whole idea of making America great again, was to basically break that link, to have the United States move towards political, economic, geopolitical freedom, not to be tied down to Europe in the way that it was. as you absolutely rightly say, this deal is going to tie it down to Europe even further. It's going to become the biggest export market for American companies, because it's got zero tariffs, not true in China, not true in other places, by the way. So it's going to find itself tied down to an economy which is going down.

It's going to be Europe is going to pull the United States down. down. Yeah, perfect, perfectly said, yeah. That's what I was thinking as well. Maybe short term, short term to medium term. This is a huge win for the United States. There's no doubt about it. This is a huge negotiated win for the United States.

They got everything they asked for and more. And Europe got absolutely nothing. All right, we will end it there. The durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble and Odyssey and Telegram and X. Go to the Duran Shop. up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update there is a link in the description box down below take care